A Note of the Use of the Shift Technique in the Measurement of Population Change

This paper examines the issue of modeling dynamic aspects of shopping trip-making behavior using time series data and presents the results of an empirical analysis based on a two-week travel diary survey of households in Hamilton, Ontario. It is concluded that logit models incorporating time dependent variables perform significantly better in terms of both calibrated goodness-of-fit and predictive capabilities than do models which assume no time dependency between choices.     

制度溢出效应的地区固定时间随机模型

为了控制个体效应的异质性,研究模型的固定效应和随机效应,尤其是因变量之间、解释变量之间和误差项之间存在的交互效应。借鉴国内外文献常用的一些制度代理变量、控制变量和扩散变量建立空间计量分析的指标体系。通过Matlab软件和R软件程序代码适用模型的比较,发掘其中的互补之处,针对固定效应可能的不足,着重分析同时或交叉使用地区或时间的固定效应和随机效应,即地区固定时间随机模型、时间固定地区随机模型、地区时间双固定模型和嵌套模型(SARAR)4种情况。1994—2014年中国内地31个省份面板数据的分析结果证实存在显著的制度溢出效应,并且地区固定时间随机模型较好地控制空间结构,得出与以往研究不同的一些结论。     

Organization of Feature-, Time-, and Location-Based Mental Models

This study considers how mental models are encoded into memory by viewing visual displays like maps. A mental model is an internal representation of a situation that links objects or concepts to other objects or concepts. Previous studies indicated location-based mental models are encoded when a series of propositional statements such as the object is in the location are read from a text. Evidence that locations were being used as the basic container for an organization of mental models is provided by a significant fan effect. A fan effect shows an increase in reaction time with the number of models considered when making a decision. Features, times, and locations were considered as possible containers in the mental models. Subjects created location-based mental models, but also encoded feature-based mental models. A reverse fan effect for time, found for a map animation, suggested the order of the presentation of maps could greatly affect the structure of learned information.     

Organization of Feature-, Time-, and Location-Based Mental Models

This study considers how mental models are encoded into memory by viewing visual displays like maps. A mental model is an internal representation of a situation that links objects or concepts to other objects or concepts. Previous studies indicated location-based mental models are encoded when a series of propositional statements such as the object is in the location are read from a text. Evidence that locations were being used as the basic container for an organization of mental models is provided by a significant fan effect. A fan effect shows an increase in reaction time with the number of models considered when making a decision. Features, times, and locations were considered as possible containers in the mental models. Subjects created location-based mental models, but also encoded feature-based mental models. A reverse fan effect for time, found for a map animation, suggested the order of the presentation of maps could greatly affect the structure of learned information.     

COVARIANCE METHODS FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS

Geographers have adopted a variety of approaches to the analysis of variations in phenomena over space and through time. Investigations of spatio-temporal problems using linear models commonly assume that relationships among variables are stable, either among the spatial units employed or over the time points with which the analysis is concerned. Covariance procedures provide a convenient means for examining the spatial and temporal variability of relationships embodied in such models. In this article an empirical example of employment in agriculture demonstrates the application of the methods.     

对黄土磁化率、粒度年龄模型的检验(自检)

利用临夏塬堡剖面高分辨率的黄土记录,将研究剖面土壤地层界线,即剖面2.3m处的MIS1/2的分界线年龄11.5KaBP、剖面21.4m处的MIS3/4的分界线年龄59.8KaBP组成三种节点控制年龄模式,分界线年龄的获得依据南京葫芦洞石笋气候事件年龄确定,即模式1:0KaBP⁵9.8KaBP;模式2:0KaBP¹1.5KaBP和11.5KaBP⁵9.8KaBP;模式3:11.5KaBP⁵9.8KaBP。运用磁化率年龄模型和粒度年龄模型分别计算研究剖面各个层位的地层沉积时间,结合剖面岩性和气候阶段对相同层位的计算年龄对比分析后发现:磁化率年龄模型和粒度年龄模型均存在缺陷,但以模式2作为节点控制年龄时,即在冰期或间冰期内选取合适的节点控制年龄,利用磁化率年龄模型或粒度年龄模型高分辨率确定的地层沉积时间与地层实际的沉积时间较接近,且在冰期或间冰期内节点控制年龄越多确定的地层沉积时间越趋近实际沉积时间。     

ARIMA和ANN模型的干旱预测适用性研究

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础,根据1960-2016年三江平原7个站点逐日降水和气温数据,利用ARIMA和ANN模型对不同时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）序列进行分析建模预测。借助相关系数R、纳什效率系数NSE、Kendall秩相关系数τ、均方误差MSE和Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S）检验对模型的有效性进行了判定,然后分别用ARIMA和ANN模型进行12步预测,并将预测值与实际值进行比较。结果表明：（1） ARIMA模型和ANN模型对SPEI的预测能力都随时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高。（2）两种模型对3、6个月尺度SPEI的预测精度偏低,9、12、24个月的SPEI的预测精度在70%以上;（3）SPEI-9、SPEI-12、SPEI-24三个时间尺度ANN模型的预测精度优于ARIMA模型。     

The time-domain magnetotelluric response over three-layer earth models

Magnetotelluric data observed in frequency and time domains are expressed as apparent resistivity. the apparent resistivity is a weighted spatial average of the subsurface resistivity distribution. In this paper, we develop analytical expressions to compute the apparent resistivity in the time domain for various three-layer earth models. the present approach to computing the magnetotelluric response in the time domain is found to overcome the problems encountered by the method of images. the magnetotelluric response in the time domain for various three-level models have been computed and shown graphically. the time-domain responses show a characteristic behaviour with a small change in layered parameters (resistivity and thickness of the layers), whereas frequency-domain responses do not show such behaviour. This characteristic behaviour of time-domain magnetotelluric sounding curves will be useful in the qualitative interpretation of field data.     

GIS-based urban modelling: practices,problems, and prospects

This paper reviews the practices, problems, and prospects of GISbased urban modelling. The author argues that current stand-alone and various loose/tight coupling approaches for GIS-based urban modelling are essentially technology-driven without adequate justification and verification for the urban models being implemented. The absolute view of space and time embodied in the current generation of GIS also imposes constraints on the type of new urban models that can be developed. By reframing the future research agenda from a geographical information science (GISci) perspective, the author contends that the integration of urban modelling with GIS must proceed with the development of new models for the informational cities, the incorporation of multi-dimensional concepts of space and time in GIS, and the further extension of the feature-based model to implement these new urban models and spatial-temporal concepts according to the emerging interoperable paradigm. GISci-based urban modelling will not only espouse new computational models and implementation strategies that are computing platform independent but also liberate us from the constraints of existing urban models and the rigid spatial-temporal framework embedded in the current generation of GIS, and enable us to think above and beyond the technical issues that have occupied us during the past ten years.     

单一景观类型时空变化分析方法——以酒泉盆地绿洲化为例

受单一土地利用动态度模型的启发, 本文提出了格网化单一景观类型变化率模型, 较好地反映了单一景观类型在研究时段内的变化情况。在此基础上又提出累积变化率和时空变化指数模型, 用于描述单一景观类型在长时间序列中的空间变化, 并以中国西部酒泉盆地1963-2009 年间的绿洲化过程为例对模型进行了检验。结果表明:①格网化单一景观类型变化率模型, 可以很好地反映期初和期末单一景观类型的局部细微变化, 包括变化速度和空间分布情况;②累积变化率综合了中间各期数据的影响, 可以较好地刻画较长时间序列中单一景观类型的变化幅度及其空间分布情况;③时空变化指数能够反映单一景观类型的变化模式, 进一步描述了变化过程的特点和趋势;④3 个模型的综合运用, 可对单一景观类型的时空变化过程及其特征做出比较全面的描述和刻画。     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Frequency response modelling of seismic waves using finite difference time domain with phase sensitive detection (TD–PSD)

This paper describes an efficient approach for computing the frequency response of seismic waves propagating in 2- and 3-D earth models within which the magnitude and phase are required at many locations. The approach consists of running an explicit finite difference time domain (TD) code with a time harmonic source out to steady-state. The magnitudes and phases at locations in the model are computed using phase sensitive detection (PSD). PSD does not require storage of time-series (unlike a fast Fourier transform), reducing its memory requirements. Additionally, the response from multiple sources can be obtained from a single finite difference run by encoding each source with a different frequency. For 2-D models with many sources, this time domain phase sensitive detection (TD–PSD) approach has a higher arithmetic complexity than direct solution of the finite difference frequency domain (FD) equations using nested dissection re-ordering (FD–ND). The storage requirements for 2-D finite difference TD–PSD are lower than FD–ND. For 3-D finite difference models, TD–PSD has significantly lower arithmetic complexity and storage requirements than FD–ND, and therefore, may prove useful for computing the frequency response of large 3-D earth models.     

基于变权组合预测模型探讨中国煤炭需求(英文)

变权组合预测是对各个单项预测模型在各时点上赋予适当权重进行组合,而权重是随预测时间变化的函数。该方法具有较高的预测精度和预测稳定性,能比较合理地描述系统的客观现实。本文依据1981-2008年的中国煤炭需求历史数据及对煤炭需求的影响因素,分别建立灰色系统、多元回归两个单项预测模型,构建了中国煤炭需求的变权组合预测模型,对中国未来12年煤炭需求进行了预测。     

关于我国土壤侵蚀模型研究进展

土壤侵蚀模型作为了解土壤侵蚀过程与强度,掌握土地资源发展动态,指导人们合理利用土地资源,管理和维持人类长期生存环境的重要技术工具,受到世界各国的普遍重视。本文总结了中国土壤侵蚀模型的主要成果,对经验统计模型、物理成因模型、国外模型在我国的应用方面作了详细的介绍。在总结和评价中国土壤侵蚀模型的基础上,提出了今后土壤侵蚀模型应该注重的发展方向:(1)注重土壤侵蚀模型的理论研究,将从以侵蚀因子为基础的侵蚀预报向侵蚀过程的量化研究和理论完善,研究各侵蚀因子及其交互作用对侵蚀过程的影响,泥沙在复杂坡面以及不同流域尺度间的分散、输移和沉积作用;(2)加强对重力侵蚀、洞穴侵蚀机制的研究,加强对大中流域侵蚀模型的研究;(3)充分利用先进的RS、GIS技术,为侵蚀模型的研究提供大量的数据源,以利于对土壤侵蚀模型的检验。     

Topographic radiation balance models: Sensitivity and application in periglacial geomorphology

Direct solar radiation integrated over one year is a function of latitude and time of year, and topographic slope , aspect and shadowing control the local distribution. Recently, several spatial models have been developed which estimate the radiation balance based on digital elevation models, taking into account aspect, slope and shadowing effects. For the periglacial realm, these models are integrated both in models estimating possible occurrence of mountain permafrost and in studies of active layer dynamics. In this article our aim is to assess and discuss sensitivity and validations of the radiation balance model SRAD, in comparison with two other topographic-based radiation models. The study site and field data are from Finse, Southern Norway.     

Space–time opportunities for multiple agents: a constraint‐based approach

Constraint‐based models and models constructing accessibility measures mainly focus on single agents having only one available transport mode. However, numerous cases exist where multiple agents or groups of individuals with different available transport modes want to participate in a joint activity at a certain location. The aim of this paper is to provide new insights into representing and reasoning about feasible space–time opportunities for multiple agents. Relying on concepts of time geography, we propose a conceptual framework in order to determine interaction spaces for groups of individuals. Besides availability of means of transport and the locations of each individual, minimum activity duration and opening hours of opportunities are taken into account. The reasoning about space and time is visualized in three dimensions using a hybrid (CAD/GIS) system.     

Choice set formation with multiple flexible activities under space–time constraints

In classical time geography, an individual travel path is composed of a chain of visits, with each visit being a flexible activity between two fixed activities at two known stations. In reality, individuals tend to carry out trips with much variation and complexity, with multipurpose trips being a prominent and pervasive phenomenon. There is limited research to date on multipurpose trips in time-geographic analysis by geographic information system (GIS) scientists, or more specifically, multiple flexible activities between two fixed stations. To fill this gap, this article proposes four models for identifying the choice set with multiple flexible activities under space–time constraints. The models are derived through set-theoretic formalism based on the concept of trip chaining. The structure of the four models establishes a theoretical framework for conceptualizing trip-chaining behaviour with respect to the fixity of activities and the number of fixed stations as destinations or origins. They provide fundamental and rigorous apparatus for studying complex individual activity–travel patterns in many applied contexts when multipurpose trips are involved. This article also describes implementation of the models with a real transportation network as a way of validation.     

Probabilistic Prediction Models for Aggregate Quarry Siting

Weights-of-evidence (WofE) and logistic regression techniques were used in a GIS framework to predict the spatial likelihood (prospectivity) of crushed-stone aggregate quarry development. The joint conditional probability models, based on geology, transportation network, and population density variables, were defined using quarry location and time of development data for the New England States, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA. The Quarry Operation models describe the distribution of active aggregate quarries, independent of the date of opening. The New Quarry models describe the distribution of aggregate quarries when they open. Because of the small number of new quarries developed in the study areas during the last decade, independent New Quarry models have low parameter estimate reliability. The performance of parameter estimates derived for Quarry Operation models, defined by a larger number of active quarries in the study areas, were tested and evaluated to predict the spatial likelihood of new quarry development. Population density conditions at the time of new quarry development were used to modify the population density variable in the Quarry Operation models to apply to new quarry development sites. The Quarry Operation parameters derived for the New England study area, Carolina study area, and the combined New England and Carolina study areas were all similar in magnitude and relative strength. The Quarry Operation model parameters, using the modified population density variables, were found to be a good predictor of new quarry locations. Both the aggregate industry and the land management community can use the model approach to target areas for more detailed site evaluation for quarry location. The models can be revised easily to reflect actual or anticipated changes in transportation and population features.