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1.
In recent decades, slope instability in high-mountain regions has often been linked to increase in temperature and the associated permafrost degradation and/or the increase in frequency/intensity of rainstorm events. In this context we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and potential controlling mechanisms of small- to medium-sized mass movements in a high-elevation catchment of the Italian Alps (Sulden/Solda basin). We found that slope-failure events (mostly in the form of rockfalls) have increased since the 2000s, whereas the occurrence of debris flows has increased only since 2010. The current climate-warming trend registered in the study area apparently increases the elevation of rockfall-detachment areas by approximately 300 m, mostly controlled by the combined effects of frost-cracking and permafrost thawing. In contrast, the occurrence of debris flows does not exhibit such an altitudinal shift, as it is primarily driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 75th percentile of the intensity-duration rainfall distribution. Potential debris-flow events in this environment may additionally be influenced by the accumulation of unconsolidated debris over time, which is then released during extreme rainfall events. Overall, there is evidence that the upper Sulden/Solda basin (above ca. 2500 m above sea level [a.s.l.]), and especially the areas in the proximity of glaciers, have experienced a significant decrease in slope stability since the 2000s, and that an increase in rockfalls and debris flows during spring and summer can be inferred. Our study thus confirms that “forward-looking” hazard mapping should be undertaken in these increasingly frequented, high-elevation areas of the Alps, as environmental change has elevated the overall hazard level in these regions.  相似文献   

2.
A dataset of 809 debris flows that occurred in 537 basins in mountainous areas of northeastern Italy between the mid-19th century and 2015 is collected and analyzed. A remarkable increase in the number of events is observed in the last four decades and is mainly ascribed to more systematic data collection. The correlation between debris-flow volume and drainage basin area is obtained assuming a power-law relationship. The exponent of the power-law curve at the 50th percentile (0.67 ± 0.02) indicates negative allometry, which means that basin area grows out of proportion to debris-flow volume. In contrast, the exponents at the 98th and 99th percentiles are close to one, implying that debris-flow volumes grow linearly with basin areas. The isometric relationship between the largest debris flows and the corresponding basin areas is due to the enhanced debris supply provided by the activation of widespread sediment sources, the extent of which is proportional to the basin size. The probability density function of debris-flow volume for a subset of the collected dataset is calculated using the kernel density estimation function, which permits estimating the probability of the occurrence of debris flows that exceed a given threshold volume. The comparison with debris flows in other hydroclimatic regions shows that, although debris-flow volumes in northeastern Italy may attain high values, they are often exceeded by debris flows that occur in seismically active regions and/or are triggered by more intense rainstorms. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Post-fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post-fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post-fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post-fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post-fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post-fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post-fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre-fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post-fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post-fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre- and post-fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW.  相似文献   

4.
AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris-flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris-flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff-generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide-initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris-flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris-flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south-facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m2. In terms of preferential locations for debris-flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn-severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris-flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Debris-flow runout is a fascinating process to understand due to its implications for downstream alluvial fans. Based on the propagation-deposition behaviors of the Dongyuege (DYG) debris flow, in Yunnan, the effect of biofilms on channel surfaces on debris-flow runout is investigated in laboratory flumes with two different internal surfaces: surfaces are lined with granite slabs (Model I) and gravel (Model II), respectively. Our results show that biofilms can significantly reduce frictional resistance to flows. They increase flow velocities, slow down the deceleration of the snouts, prolong runout distances, and subsequently extend the areas covered with resulting deposits, thus greatly assisting the propagation of experimental debris flows. Slippery biofilms consisting mainly of diatoms and their extracellular mucus (ECM) reduce the contact friction between the flume-beds and the overlying fluids, and greatly promote the propagation of tested flows. Well-developed biofilms are found on the underwater channel surfaces of the DYG Creek. Acting as lubricating layers, they likely played a key role in the DYG debris-flow runout. Most of the debris transported during the DYG event was deposited on overbanks, and the sediment that caused the disaster was transported to the populated fan region through the stream-bed clad in the thick biofilms. Owing to their impacts on the development and width of the temporary debris dam breach, the stream-bed covered with biofilms became a direct contributor to the debris-flow hazard. Because of the ubiquitous presence of biofilms on mountain stream-bed surfaces, the development of perennial streamflows can be viewed as an indicator of gully susceptibility to debris flows threatening creek fans. The underwater areas of pre-event channel cross-sections should be regarded as slip or low-friction boundaries, and the parts above stream-levels can be viewed as no-slip boundaries. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
An increase in debris-flow frequency is expected in steep Alpine catchments after the occurrence of a large landslide, such as a rock avalanche. Herein we describe changes in debris-flow activity following increases in sediment availability due to landslides, or accelerated rock-glacier movement, for five catchments in the Swiss Alps, the Spreitgraben, Schipfenbach, Bondasca, Riascio, and Dorfbach catchments. Documentation on debris-flow activity is available from both before and after the landslide that generated the new sediment deposits. Data from nearby meteorological stations were used to explore possible changes in rainfall activity, and how the intensity and duration of rainfall events may have changed. In all cases there was a considerable increase in debris-flows frequency for one to eight years following the landslide. The annual number of days with debris-flow activity following the landslide was similar to that observed for the Illgraben catchment, where many such landslides occur annually. No clear change in precipitation totals preceding debris flows was apparent for the Riascio catchment, suggesting that the increase in frequency of debris flows is related to the increase in the amount of sediment that can be readily mobilized. In the two cases where rainfall data were available on an hourly basis, no systematic changes in the intensity or duration of rainfall related to debris-flow triggering were apparent, as shown by the close-clustering of storms on the intensity-duration plots. Following the sediment-generating event, an initial and sudden increase of the sediment yield was observed, followed by a decrease over time towards pre-disturbance values. The response of the catchments appears to be related to the amount of debris-flow activity prior to the landslide: sediment yield from catchments with frequent debris flows prior to the landslide activity did not increase as dramatically as in catchments where debris-flow activity was less common prior to the landslide. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The main purpose of this study is to develop a new type of artificial neural network based model for constructing a debris flow warning system. The Chen‐Eu‐Lan river basin, which is located in Central Taiwan, is assigned as the study area. The creek is one of the most well‐known debris flow areas where several damaging debris flows have been reported in the last two decades. The hydrological and geological data, which might have great influence on the occurrence of debris flows, are first collected and analysed, then, the shared near neighbours neural network (SNN + NN) is presented to construct the debris flow warning system for the watershed. SNN is an unsupervised learning method that has the advantage of dealing with non‐globular clusters, besides presenting computational efficiency. By using SNN, the compiled hydro‐geological data set can easily and meaningfully be clustered into several categories. These categories can then be identified as ‘occurrence’ or ‘no‐occurrence’ of debris flows. To improve the effectiveness of the debris flow warning system, a neural network framework is designed to connect all the clusters produced by the SNN method, whereas the connected weights of the network are adjusted through a supervised learning method. This framework is used and its applicability and practicability for debris flow warning are investigated. The results demonstrate that the proposed SNN + NN model is an efficient and accurate tool for the development of a debris flow warning system. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度计算方法研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
余斌 《地震学刊》2010,(2):207-211
泥石流的淤积厚度是泥石流灾害评估和防治的最重要的参数之一,但迄今还没有较好的方法计算不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度。本文通过研究泥石流屈服应力的特点,提出了用地区参数和泥石流体积浓度来计算泥石流屈服应力,进而计算泥石流淤积厚度的方法。采用本文方法计算已发生泥石流地区不同容重泥石流的淤积厚度,可以很好地应用于泥石流灾害评估和防治。  相似文献   

9.
A depth-averaged two-phase model is proposed for debris flows over fixed beds, explicitly incorporating interphase and particle-particle interactions, fluid and solid fluctuations and multi grain sizes. A first-order model based on the kinetic theory of granular flows is employed to determine the stresses due to solid fluctuations, while the turbulent kinetic energy - dissipation rate model is used to determine the stresses from fluid fluctuations. A well-balanced numerical algorithm is applied to solve the governing equations. The present model is benchmarked against USGS experimental debris flows over fixed beds. Incorporating the stresses due to fluid and solid fluctuations and properly estimating the bed shear stresses are shown to be crucial for reproducing the debris flows. Longitudinal particle segregation is resolved, demonstrating coarser sediments around the fronts and finer grains trailing the head. Based on extended modeling exercises, debris flow efficiency is shown to increase with initial volume, which is underpinned by observed datasets.  相似文献   

10.
Debris flows often exhibit high mobility, leading to extensive hazards far from their sources. Although it is known that debris flow mobility increases with initial volume, the underlying mechanism remains uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the mobility–volume relation for debris flows using a recent depth-averaged two-phase flow model without evoking a reduced friction coefficient, challenging currently prevailing friction-reduction hypotheses. Physical experimental debris flows driven by solid–liquid mass release and extended numerical cases at both laboratory and field scales are resolved by the model. For the first time, we probe into the energetics of the debris flows and find that, whilst the energy balance holds and fine and coarse grains play distinct roles in debris flow energetics, the grains as a whole release energy to the liquid due to inter-phase and inter-grain size interactions, and this grain-energy release correlates closely with mobility. Despite uncertainty arising from the model closures, our results provide insight into the fundamental mechanisms operating in debris flows. We propose that debris flow mobility is governed by grain-energy release, thereby facilitating a bridge between mobility and internal energy transfer. The initial volume of debris flow is inadequate for characterizing debris flow mobility, and a friction-reduction mechanism is not a prerequisite for the high mobility of debris flows. By contrast, inter-phase and inter-grain size interactions play primary roles and should be incorporated explicitly in debris flow models. Our findings are qualitatively encouraging and physically meaningful, providing implications not only for assessing future debris flow hazards and informing mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also for unravelling a spectrum of earth surface processes including heavily sediment-laden floods, subaqueous debris flows and turbidity currents in rivers, reservoirs, estuaries, and ocean. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The advance of technology has led to more competent countermeasures, but lives and properties still continue to suffer from water‐induced disasters, such as floods, landslides, and debris flows. To increase the effectiveness of counter systems, improved methods of planning and designing such systems are prerequisite. This paper describes briefly a methodological approach for predicting debris flow characteristics, and proposes techniques for evaluating and improving the mitigative effectiveness of check dams against debris flows in steep mountain torrents. Additionally, a non‐dimensional parameter, namely potential storage volume, is introduced to generalize the evaluation processes. As an example, the 1999 debris‐flow event in the San Julian River, Venezuela, is chosen for discussion. The paper also proposes a method of evaluating the control function of a series of check dams as well as the criteria for the selection of their sizes, numbers and locations. It is hoped that this work will help to determine which combinations of check dams will fit best together for the optimal control of debris flows and available resources in any river basin. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
“Disaster risk assessment” is important in the planning of risk management strategies that reduce societal losses. However, governmental agencies in Taiwan generally assess risks that emerge from debris flows without adequately considering risk management and taking a systems approach. This work proposes an approach to thoroughly consider the interactive influence mechanism of debris flow disaster risk. Additionally, a systematic method for assessing disaster risks is developed. This proposed method can be used in the current risk assessment and as a basis for management strategy planning. Based on systems thinking, the components and attributes of a conceptual system of disaster risk management associated with debris flows in a river basin are identified. Subsequently, a conceptual mitigation–hazard–exposure–resistance framework and an indicator system for assessing the debris flow disaster risks in a river basin are identified. The disaster risks for each exposed community in each drainage zone can be systematically calculated based on the current status or plans of prevention and evacuation measures using the proposed indicator system. A case study of implementing the proposed methodology that involves the Chishan River Basin is presented, in which disaster risk according to the current status of prevention and evacuation measures is assessed. Drainage zones and communities with a significant debris flow disaster risk are located; this risk is associated with a lack of adequate prevention and evacuation measures that have been planned of government agencies. Analytical results indicate that the proposed methodology can systematically and effectively assess the disaster risks of a river basin. The proposed methodology provides a valuable reference for governmental agencies that must manage disaster risk associated with debris flows.  相似文献   

13.
Landslide dams commonly form when mass earth or rock movements reach a river channel and cause a complete or partial blockage of the channel.Intense rainfalls can induce upstream flows along a sloping channel that significantly affect downstream landslide dams.If a series of landslide dams are collapsed by incoming mountain torrents(induced by intense rainfall),large debris flows can form in a very short period.Furthermore,the failure of these dams can amplify the magnitude and scale of debris flows in the flow direction.The catastrophic debris flows that occurred in Zhouqu County,China on 8 August 2010 were caused by intense rainfall and the upstream cascading failure of landslide dams along the gullies.Incorporating the role of outburst floods associated with the complete or partial failure of landslide dams is an interesting problem usually beyond the scope of analysis because of the inherent modeling complexity.To understand the cascading failure modes of a series of landslide dams,and the dynamic effect these failures have on the enlargement of debris flow scales,experimental tests are conducted in sloping channels mimicking field conditions,with the modeled landslide dams distributed along a sloping channel and crushed by different upstream flows.The failure modes of three different cascades of landslide dams fully or partially blocking a channel river are parametrically studied.This study illustrates that upstream flows can induce a cascading failure of the landslide dams along a channel.Overtopping is the primary failure mechanism,while piping and erosion can also induce failures for different constructed landslide dams.A cascading failure of landslide dams causes a gradually increasing flow velocity and discharge of the front flow,resulting in an increase in both diameter and percentage of the entrained coarse particles.Furthermore,large landslide blockages can act to enhance the efficiency of river incision,or conversely to induce aggradation of fluvial sediments,depending on the blockage factor of the landslide dams and upstream discharge.  相似文献   

14.
Debris flows are gravity-driven mass movements that are common natural hazards in mountain regions worldwide. Previous work has shown that measurements of ground vibrations are capable of detecting the timing, speed, and location of debris flows. A remaining question is to what extent additional flow properties, such as grain-size distribution and flow depth can be inferred reliably from seismic data. Here, we experimentally explore the relation of seismic vibrations and normal-force fluctuations with debris-flow composition and dynamics. We use a 5.4 m long and 0.3 m wide channel inclined at 20°, equipped with a geophone plate and force plate. We show that seismic vibrations and normal-force fluctuations induced by debris flows are strongly correlated, and that both are affected by debris-flow composition. We find that the effects of the large-particle distribution on seismic vibrations and normal-force fluctuations are substantially more pronounced than the effects of water fraction, clay fraction, and flow volume, especially when normalized by flow depth. We further show that for flows with similar coarse-particle distributions seismic vibrations and normal-force fluctuations can be reasonably well related to flow depth, even if total flow volume, water fraction, and the size distribution of fines varies. Our experimental results shed light on how changes in large-particle, clay, and water fractions affect the seismic and force-fluctuation signatures of debris flows, and provide important guidelines for their interpretation.  相似文献   

15.
Due to their potentially long runout, debris flows are a major hazard and an important geomorphic process in mountainous environments. Understanding runout is therefore essential to minimize risk in the near-term and interpret the pace and pattern of debris flow erosion and deposition over geomorphic timescales. Many debris flows occur in forested landscapes where they mobilize large volumes of large woody debris (LWD) in addition to sediment, but few studies have quantitatively documented the effects of LWD on runout. Here, we analyze recent and historic debris flows in southeast Alaska, a mountainous, forested system with minimal human alteration. Sixteen debris flows near Sitka triggered on August 18, 2015 or more recently had volumes of 80 to 25 000 m3 and limited mobility compared to a global compilation of similarly-sized debris flows. Their deposits inundated 31% of the planimetric area, and their runout lengths were 48% of that predicted by the global dataset. Depositional slopes were 6°–26°, and mobility index, defined as the ratio of horizontal runout to vertical elevation change, ranged from 1.2 to 3, further indicating low mobility. In the broader southeast Alaskan region consisting of Chichagof and Baranof Islands, remote sensing-based analysis of 1061 historic debris flows showed that mobility index decreased from 2.3–2.5 to 1.4–1.8 as average forest age increased from 0 to 416 years. We therefore interpret that the presence of LWD within a debris flow and standing trees, stumps, and logs in the deposition zone inhibit runout, primarily through granular phenomena such as jamming due to force chains. Calibration of debris flow runout models should therefore incorporate the ecologic as well as geologic setting, and feedbacks between debris flows and vegetation likely control the transport of sediment and organic material through steep, forested catchments over geomorphic time. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
川藏公路四川段泥石流灾害研究与治理   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
大量现场调查和观测发现,川藏公路四川段的泥石流灾害集中分布在4个区域,即龙胆溪泥石流区、雅江泥石流区、波戈溪泥石流区和巴塘—金沙江泥石流区。波戈溪泥石流区和巴塘—金沙江泥石流区是境内泥石流灾害最严重的地区,流域面积超过20km^2的特大型泥石流有24条。自东向西,川藏公路四川段泥石流由水石流逐渐演变为稀性泥石流;复杂的地质构造环境、高山深谷地貌特征、强烈的地震活动、高强度的降雨和冰雪融水,构成泥石流灾害显著发育的环境条件。将公路沿线泥石流形成机理概括为4种,即降雨冲击机理、强度衰减机理、冲刷切割机理和沟床拖拽机理;2003年以来采用护岸结构、速流结构、抗冲击结构、拦渣坝、消能坎等技术实施了30余个大型泥石流灾害治理工程,治理效果显著。  相似文献   

17.
The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow (critical rainfall for debris flow triggering) after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.  相似文献   

18.
1 INTRODUCTION Debrisflowsoccurwhenrainstormsortheelevationofundergroundwaterlevelcauseloosedepositsorpetrifiedobjectssuchasp?..  相似文献   

19.
Wildfires represent one of the largest disturbances in watersheds of the Intermountain West. Yet, we lack models capable of predicting post-wildfire impacts on downstream ecosystems and infrastructure. Here we present a novel modeling framework that links new and existing models to simulate the post-wildfire sediment cascade, including spatially explicit predictions of debris flows, storage of debris flow sediment within valleys, delivery of debris flow sediment to active channels, and the downstream routing of sediment through river networks. We apply the model to sediment dynamics in Clear Creek watershed following the 2010 Twitchell Canyon Fire in the Tushar Mountains of southern Utah. The debris flow generation model performed well, correctly predicting 19 out of 20 debris flows from the largest catchments, with only four false positives and two false negatives at observed rainfall intensities. In total, the model predicts the occurrence of 160 post-wildfire debris flows across the Clear Creek watershed, generating more than 650 000 m3 of sediment. Our new storage and delivery model predicts the vast majority of this sediment is stored within valleys, and only 13% is delivered to the river network. The sediment routing model identifies numerous sediment bottlenecks within the network, which alter transport dynamics and may be hotspots for aggradation and aquatic habitat alteration. The volume of sediment exported from the watershed after seven years of simulation totals 17% of that delivered, or 2% of the total generated debris flow sediment. In the case of the Twitchell Canyon Fire, this highlights that significant post-wildfire sediment volumes can be stored in valleys (87%) and within the stream network (11%). Finally, we discuss useful insights that can be gleaned from the model framework, as well as the limitations and need for more monitoring and theory development in order to better constrain essential inputs, process rates, and morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
I.I~rnoxTherearemanyproblemsfortheresearchondebrisflowmechanism.ThemostimPOrtantandmOSturgentoneisthecalculationofresistanceandvelocityOfdebrisflow.Inthisaspectmuchresearchhasbeencompletedfromtwoapproaches.Oneapproachisbasedonordinaryhydraulicsandmodifiedbyfieldobservationdata,andempiricalformulaeofdebrisflowresistanceandvelocitywereestablished.MOStoftheearlyresearch,suchascalculatingdebrisflowvelocitywiththemodifiedformOfMariningformula,belongedtothisscope.Theonlydifferenceisthattherough…  相似文献   

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