T639模式预报系统误差统计和订正方法研究

通过统计2009—2010年T639模式500 hPa高度、850 hPa温度和2 m温度的1～10天预报场的平均误差发现,T639模式的这些气象要素预报都存在明显系统误差,且系统误差随着预报时效的增加而增加。利用＂递减平均法＂尝试订正其预报系统误差,订正结果表明：该订正方法总体表现为正的订正技巧,但订正能力随着预报时效的增加而下降;东亚地区的系统误差小于整个北半球,＂递减平均法＂的订正能力总体小于整个北半球。对比夏、冬半年订正效果发现：对于500 hPa位势高度和850 hPa温度的预报场,冬半年和夏半年订正技巧相当;对于地面2 m温度预报场,冬半年订正能力明显高于夏半年。不同权重系数试验表明：对于500 hPa高度场,权重系数约取0.06时,订正效果较好,而对于850 hPa和2 m温度场,权重系数约取0.1时,订正效果最佳。     

EVALUATION OF CORRECTIONS ON TURBULENT FLUXES OBTAINED BY EDDY COVARIANCE METHOD IN HIGH WINDS

This paper investigates processing of fast-response data and corrections of turbulent fluxes obtained by using eddy covariance method based on data collected at an offshore observation tower during three Cold-intrusion(CI)events in the South China Sea in 2010. This study presents the data processing procedure in detail and compares frictional velocities(u*), sensible heat fluxes(H) and latent heat fluxes(LE) yielded by using different averaging periods and different coordinate rotation methods; evaluates the sonic temperature correction for sensible heat flux and the Webb correction for latent heat flux as a function of 10 m wind speed(u10) during the CIs. The results show(1) that the different averaging periods of 30 min and 10 min cause biases of u*(H, LE) within 5%(15%, 62%). The values of u*(H,LE) averaged from 30 mins are mostly larger than those averaged from 10 mins. We suggest that the averaging period of 10 min is not sufficiently long to capture all scale eddies and recommend 30 min averaging period in calculating turbulent fluxes using eddy covariance method during CIs;(2) that the values of u*(H, LE) obtained from double rotation(DR2) and those obtained from planar fit rotation(PF) have good agreements and correlation coefficients between them are larger than 0.99. Because PF method requires unchanged environment and it is easier to apply DR2 method, we suggest DR2 coordinate rotation method in processing fast-response data; and(3) that the median values of frictional velocity(sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) binned according to 2 m s~(-1) intervals of u_(10) increase(decrease,increase) by less than 9%(4%, 10%) by Coriolis corrections(sonic temperature corrections, Webb corrections), which decreases(decreases, increases) with increasing u10 when u10 are 5-17 m s~(-1).     

基于数值模式的月尺度近地层气象要素预报技术研究

利用WRF模式对美国NCEP发布的CFS气候预测业务产品在中国区域内进行动力降尺度预报,可得到预报时效为45天的逐6小时、30 km分辨率基础气象要素预测产品。再利用全国气象站观测资料和3个风电场70 m高度风速、温度观测资料对2015年冬季预测结果进行检验评估和分析,最后通过线性方法对地面要素预测结果和70 m高度风速、温度预测结果进行统计订正。结果表明:（1）2 m温度和相对湿度的全国预报平均绝对误差分别为4.71 ℃和18.81%,在华东、华中和华南地区误差较小;（2）10 m风速预报平均绝对误差为2.42 m/s,在东北、华北和西北地区误差较小;（3）线性订正后,2 m气温、相对湿度和10 m风速的预报绝对误差分别减小1.05 ℃、5.29%和1.47 m/s,并且订正后误差随时间变化更平稳;（4）订正后70 m高度风速和温度的预报绝对误差均减小,风速平均误差减小最大可达1.29 m/s（B塔）,气温平均绝对误差减小最大可达3 ℃（C塔）。研究结果表明,基于CFS产品和WRF模式的、与月尺度风电预报关系密切的气象要素预报性能较好,未来可将该方法尝试于风电场的月尺度功率预测产品研发。      

MODIS巢湖水体叶绿素a浓度反演模型

对大面积水体进行水质遥感监测是比较典型的水体环境监测手段。该文利用地物光谱仪测定了巢湖水面的光谱反射率, 收集了相应时间的MODIS数据, 经过预处理之后, 首先分析了巢湖水面光谱特征, 并对实测水体反射率与实测叶绿素a之间的关系进行统计拟合计算。在经过MODIS大气校正后, 得到1~7通道的地表反射率。利用大气校正后的EOS/MODIS数据, 选择最佳通道组合, 定义了叶绿素a指数I_Chla, 建立了MODIS巢湖叶绿素a浓度的反演模型, 检验得到相关系数为0.5079。     

多普勒天气雷达组网拼图有效数据区域分析

在正常情况下, 由于天线仰角和地球曲率原因, 雷达波束位置在远距离处要比近距离处高。当雷达电磁波能量被部分阻挡时, 回波强度观测值低估; 被完全挡住时, 探测不到地物后的目标。该文利用高分辨率地形高程数据计算波束阻挡率, 确定组网拼图有效数据区域以及波束部分阻挡时的回波强度订正方法。根据业务观测模式VCP11及VCP12的14个仰角值, 在标准大气假定下, 对湖南、江西、浙江、福建、广东、广西和海南已建多普勒天气雷达组网的数据有效区域进行计算, 绘制出海拔1500 m, 3000 m和6000 m高度上有效区域图。分析结果表明:CAPPI数据有效范围比等射束高度图更能反映出多普勒天气雷达业务观测范围; 若采用VCP12模式观测, 与采用VCP11或VCP21模式观测相比, 不仅增加低层探测密度, 而且可扩大雷达实际探测距离, 其回波数据更适合于组网拼图。     

Slant Column Measurements of O3 and NO2 During the NDSC Intercomparison of Zenith-Sky UV-Visible Spectrometers in June 1996

In June 1996, 16 UV-visible sensors from 11 institutes measured spectra of the zenith sky for more than 10 days. Spectra were analysed in real-time to determine slant column amounts of O3 and NO2. Spectra of Hg lamps and lasers were measured, and the amount of NO2 in a cell was determined by each spectrometer. Some spectra were re-analysed after obvious errors were found. Slant columns were compared in two ways: by examining regression analyses against comparison instruments over the whole range of solar zenith angles; and by taking fractional differences from a comparison instrument at solar zenith angles between 85° and 91°. Regression identified which pairs of instruments were most consistent, and so which could be used as universal comparison instruments. For O3, regression slopes for the whole campaign agreed within 5% for most instruments despite the use of different cross-sections and wavelength intervals, whereas similar agreement was only achieved for NO2 when the same cross-sections and wavelength intervals were used and only one half-day's data was analysed. Mean fractional differences in NO2 from a comparison instrument fall within ±7% (1-sigma) for most instruments, with standard deviations of the mean differences averaging 4.5%. Mean differences in O3 fall within ±2.5% (1- sigma) for most instruments, with standard deviations of the mean differences averaging 2%. Measurements of NO2 in the cell had similar agreement to measurements of NO2 in the atmosphere, but for some instruments measurements with cell and atmosphere relative to a comparison instrument disagreed by more than the error bars.     

一种2 m温度误差订正方法在复杂地形区数值预报中的应用

利用模式三维预报变量,结合地面要素预报产品,采用2 m温度三维插值方法进行地形订正,以确保预报与观测三维空间上的一致性,在地形订正基础上,利用历史月均预报误差作为参考误差,剔除模式系统性误差,获取具备日变化特征的预报产品。基于陕西地区复杂地形条件下的典型观测站点,利用2016年8月28日48 h预报个例进行对比分析发现,三维插值方法有效改善了地形差异引起的评估误导问题,但无法改进模式预报的日变化趋势,进一步采用系统性误差订正后,日变化特征明显改善,特别是前24 h预报效果体现出与实况良好的一致性及更佳的预报技巧。通过2016年夏季统计评估表明,误差订正后的2 m温度预报产品有效改善了周期性误差振荡,均方根误差稳定在2 K左右,显示出明显的改进优势。     

GTS探空仪碳湿敏元件性能测试数据分析及相对湿度订正

碳湿敏元件受温度影响明显,造成相对湿度探空数据测量的误差。利用温湿控制设备对该元件进行静态试验,测试不同温度对元件感湿特性的影响。通过对试验数据分析计算得到元件的相对湿度温度项订正数据,以及相对湿度的温度项订正拟合公式,可以有效订正由温度引起的相对湿度探空数据误差。对实际相对湿度探空数据资料订正效果的对比分析表明,经过温度项订正后的相对湿度探空数据,不但其准确度得到了提高,而且清楚地体现出在订正之前所不能体现的高空大气相对湿度在低湿段的变化细节。     

Full-scale measurements of the wind regime over a saddle,and correlation with wind-tunnel tests

The Gebbies Pass region consists of a saddle at a height of approximately 300 m, bounded by two ranges of hills approximately 500 m high. A survey technique which yielded mean wind speeds at a height of 10 m in this region is shown to provide excellent reproducibility for data collected 6 months apart. The survey results are also shown to correlate extremely well with those obtained from a 1:4000 scale model analysed in a Planetary Boundary Layer wind tunnel.Wind structure information obtained upstream of the saddle and at its crest is presented and compared with the wind tunnel model and other studies where possible. The velocity profile was measured up to 160 m at the crest and was found to be almost vertical; however, there was a noticeable jet at the 15 m height, which was not apparent on the model. Measurements at 10 m height showed a velocity increase of 40–60% at the crest compared to the approach terrain velocity at the same height above ground level. The longitudinal r.m.s. turbulence component _u was found to increase at the saddle but still resulted in reduced turbulence intensity values relative to the upstream situation. The longitudinal component of the energy spectrum at the upwind site was in excellent agreement with the theoretical model proposed by Kaimal et al. (1972). However, at the saddle crest the theoretical spectrum was too high and required further modification to fit the measured data. It is proposed that a terrain factor be used to make the necessary adjustment since the theoretical spectra are strictly only valid for flat homogeneous terrain.     

Evapotranspiration measurement for tall plant canopies: The sweet sorghum case

Summary A methodological study on a tall canopy in a Mediterranean region was carried out in order to identify the most suitable method for measuring the actual evapotranspiration (ET). ET from a sweet sorghum crop was measured by 4 different methods: (i) energy balance/eddy correlation, (ii) energy balance/Bowen ratio, (iii) energy balance/aerodynamic simplified, and (iv) floating lysimeter (ETmeter). In order to compare a very large range of ET values and to reduce experimental errors due to low gradients of air humidity and temperature, the crop was submitted to two soil drying-wetting cycles. To evaluate the main limitations of each method with respect to crop height, crop ET was monitored during the entire vegetative cycle, from stem elongation (crop height 0.85 m, full canopy) to grain filling (when the crop was 2.5 m high). The comparison between the micrometeorological methods (i, ii, and iii) was made on hourly and daily time steps, while the analysis of ETmeter measurements was made on a daily time step only. On an hourly scale: eddy correlation ET was 106% of Bowen ratio ET and simplified aerodynamic ET was 116%, 125% and 135% of Bowen ratio ET with the first sensors are placed at the top of the canopy and the second sensors at 0.7 m, 1.4 m and 2.8 m from the first sensors, respectively. On a daily scale: eddy correlation ET was 102% of Bowen ratio ET, simplified aerodynamic was 114% of Bowen ratio ET and ETmeter ET was 97% of Bowen ratio ET. In the last case the values are very widely spread and the correlation is really not so good. The results show that the Bowen ratio method and the eddy correlation method are in good agreement on daily scales, however, certain precautions, must be taken concerning the eddy correlation method on an hourly scale. The simplified aerodynamic method failed when crop height was > 1.5 m and the ETmeter failed under windy conditions (wind speed > 2.0 m/s) and limited crop water conditions.With 13 Figures     

Observations of a multi-level turbulence structure in a very stable atmospheric boundary layer

Boundary-layer measurements conducted at the Marsta site in Sweden from a winter-time situation (23–25 Feb.) with stable stratification have been analysed. The data comprise wind and temperature profile measurements up to 30 m, turbulence measurements at 2, 6 and 30 m and Doppler acoustic sounder data up to about 150 m. The upwind fetch at the site is flat and free from obstacles to a distance of ca 5 km for the particular sector chosen for the experiment.During the night, a two-layer vertical structure developed. Analysis of power spectra, co-spectra and variances in a shallow and very stable turbulent boundary layer near the ground show that the turbulence is fully developed and follow the universal behaviour.Above, at a height of 30 m, another turbulent layer is produced by increased wind shear near a low-level jet. This turbulent upper layer can be regarded as a layer of free shear flow. At this height, there also exist wave-turbulence interactions at low frequencies which sometimes cause a countergradient heat flux.     

华东沿海ASCAT反演风速的检验和订正

基于2010—2014年ASCAT反演风速、华东沿海14个浮标站和浙江沿海249个自动气象站资料,对华东沿海ASCAT反演风速进行检验和订正。研究表明:站点ASCAT风速误差不仅与离岸距离相关,而且与站点周围地形有关,误差较大的5个浮标站均位于舟山群岛附近海区,平均偏大4.79 m·s-1,其他海区浮标站的ASCAT反演风速平均偏差仅为0.46 m·s-1。ASCAT反演风速与浮标站风速的线性回归可有效减小反演风速误差,订正后误差大幅减小,误差越大的站点订正效果越好。相距160 km内的浮标站点间风速误差呈正相关,且站点间距越小,误差正相关越明显。考虑带影响半径的反距离权重,采用邻站方程订正法和邻站误差订正法分别对华东沿海ASCAT反演风速进行订正,均能明显减小平均偏差和均方根误差,两种方法订正效果接近,即两种方法均有较好的订正效果,可用于实际业务。     

Sampling errors in estimation of the small scales of monthly mean climate

Abstract

We examine the sampling errors in the estimation of the small scales of monthly average mean atmospheric climate as seen in mean kinetic energy. The relationships between the small‐scale mean and transient kinetic energy in the atmosphere and atmospheric flow simulations are discussed. We elucidate how the estimation of the mean depends on the number of realizations or the length of the time period of the data. Studies based on both a barotropic model and on the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 3 general circulation model (GCM) are performed focusing on 500 hPa and vertically averaged spectra. Results for perpetual January simulations are presented for 32, 62 and 1500 member ensembles within the barotropic model and for 1, 10 and 60 month integrations with the GCM. We find that, with too few realizations in the ensemble or averaging over just one month, the mean kinetic energy has a spurious spectrum with similar power law to the transient kinetic energy but with smaller values by about two orders of magnitude. For larger ensembles or longer averaging periods, the mean kinetic energy falls off more rapidly than the transient kinetic energy. Our results lead to the conclusion that mean kinetic energy spectra based on just one month of data, such as reported in the literature, most recently by Boer (2003), are dominated by sampling errors at the small scales.     

A precision kite or balloon-borne mini-sonde for wind and turbulence measurements

A highly mobile system for accurate measurements of wind speed and horizontal turbulence in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere is presented. It consists of a light-weight sonde (only 50 g, including batteries that permit 12 h of continuous operation) which can be easily lifted by a small kite in winds below 5 m/s and up to at least 25 m/s. In winds below 5 m/s, a small kytoon may be used instead. The signals from the sonde are received by a standard FM-radio equipped with a frequency converter, and data are recorded on ordinary cassette tapes. Field tests against towermounted precision instruments were performed at two sites during neutral and unstable conditions with the sonde suspended 25 m below a small kite, the measuring heights being 11 and 18 m respectively during the two test series. Mean wind speeds are found to be accurate to within ±0.2 m/s. Wind speed spectra obtained with the flying sonde can be evaluated up to 0.5 Hz and are found to agree closely with the spectra of the longitudinal component recorded simultaneously by the tower-mounted instrument at the same height. After correction for high frequency loss, which amounted to 5% at this low height (it is expected to decrease rapidly with height), the standard deviation of the wind recorded by the sonde agreed to within 2% with that obtained by the reference instrument. A notable result of the field tests is that there was no sign of degradation of the performance of the sonde in strong turbulence conditions.     

Impact of time sampling on atmospheric energy budget residuals

Summary Diagnostic time-mean budgets of energy and water are evaluated in many atmospheric process studies. The errors of budget-derived quantities like sub-gridscale fluxes or diabatic heating are governed by the errors of the budgets. Here we consider 3D-budgets on the meso-β scale over Europe. They are compiled from analyses of state quantities available from forecast centres. In the present study we found that the mandatory 6 hours sampling interval between synoptic observations is the main error source for routine time-mean budgets. The errors have been quantified (i) by first sampling forecast data of the German Europamodell every 5 minutes and averaging them over 12 hours (reference budget), and (ii) by sampling the same data only every 6 hours and averaging these also over 12 hours (routine budget). With this method we find that routine budgets in single atmospheric meso-β scale columns show relative random errors of typically 200% and systematic errors of up to 20%, exclusively due to undersampling. Thus routine budgets, if applied to specific days at individual locations, cannot be expected to yield useful results, except perhaps for cases with extremely strong signal. Compositing over several hundreds of columns with similar weather reduces the random budget error down to about 50%; this seems to be the best one can achieve for routine budgets. The systematic error of some budget quantities is caused by a correlation between the time of occurence of certain processes (mainly convection) and the sampling times. While this error cannot be reduced through compositing, we find that it can be crudely estimated by using different time averaging methods. As application for this method we determine sub-gridscale budget quantities over the BALTEX catchment (August-September 1995) for an ensemble of convectively active and an ensemble of rain-active columns. For the ensemble mean profiles we find, in terms of the diagnosed sub-gridscale test quantities diabatic heating and vertical moist enthalpy flux divergence, that their accuracy is sufficient to detect statistically significant differences between both ensembles. The diabatic heating is about the same for both ensembles, while the flux divergence in the convective ensemble is about three times as large as in the rain ensemble. Received November 7, 2001 Revised April 4, 2001     

Effects of Averaging Period on Energy Fluxes and the Energy-Balance Ratio as Measured with an Eddy-Covariance System

The eddy-covariance method is an important technique for investigating the exchange of energy and substances between the atmosphere and an ecosystem. However, an inappropriate averaging period leads to inaccurate fluxes and a low energy-balance ratio (EBR). The effects of various averaging periods on fluxes and the EBR are analyzed using flux data from the entire growth stage of maize measured with an eddy-covariance system in northern China. We find that the relative error of the flux between an averaging period of 10–60 min and the commonly used averaging period of 30 min is within 3%. When the averaging period is between 10 and 60 min, the magnitudes of fluxes increase with the length of the averaging period at various growth stages. For averaging periods exceeding 60 min, the magnitudes of fluxes vary significantly, particularly for periods longer than 120 min. In general, \({ EBR} > 0.8\) in the maize field, tending to increase within periods of 10–60 min, but decreasing rapidly at various growth stages for averaging periods longer than 120 min. Ogive functions indicate an optimal averaging period of the seedling–shooting and shooting–heading stages is approximately 10–30 min, and that of the heading–filling and filling–maturity stages is 30–60 min.     

Eddy Covariance Tilt Corrections over a Coastal Mountain Area in South-east China: Significance for Near-Surface Turbulence Characteristics

Turbulence characteristics of an atmospheric surface layer over a coastal mountain area were investigated under different coordinate frames.Performances of three methods of coordinate rotation:double rotation(DR),triple rotation(TR),and classic planar-fit rotation(PF) were examined in terms of correction of eddy covariance flux.Using the commonly used DR and TR methods,unreasonable rotation angles are encountered at low wind speeds and cause significant run-to-run errors of some turbulence characteristics.The PF method rotates the coordinate system to an ensemble-averaged plane,and shows large tilt error due to an inaccurate fit plane over variable terrain slopes.In this paper,we propose another coordinate rotation scheme.The observational data were separated into two groups according to wind direction.The PF method was adapted to find an ensemble-averaged streamline plane for each group of hourly runs with wind speed exceeding 1.0 m s 1.Then,the coordinate systems were rotated to their respective bestfit planes for all available hourly observations.We call this the PF10 method.The implications of tilt corrections for the turbulence characteristics are discussed with a focus on integral turbulence characteristics,the spectra of wind-velocity components,and sensible heat and momentum fluxes under various atmospheric stabilities.Our results show that the adapted application of PF provides greatly improved estimates of integral turbulence characteristics in complex terrain and maintains data quality.The comparisons of the sensible heat fluxes for four coordinate rotation methods to fluxes before correction indicate that the PF10 scheme is the best to preserve consistency between fluxes.     

ASCAT近岸风场产品与近岸浮标观测风场对比

利用美国西海岸7个近岸浮标2012年全年和中国近岸8个气象浮标2012年1—6月的风场观测数据,检验了卫星散射计ASCAT近岸风场产品中的风速和风向在近岸海域的精度。检验结果表明:在美国西海岸近岸海域,ASCAT近岸风场产品中的风速与浮标的风速一致性高,但ASCAT近岸风场产品中风向的精度受离岸距离、风速和风向等因素的影响,在离岸近的海域ASCAT近岸风场产品与浮标观测风场的一致性较差。统计发现,将低风速 (不超过3 m·s-1) 剔除可明显提高ASCAT近岸风场产品在近岸海域的精度。另外,ASCAT近岸风场产品的风向精度在不同风向上存在差异,表现为从陆地吹向海洋风向精度较小,而从海洋吹向陆地风向精度较高。在中国近岸海域,受地形影响,渤海海域ASCAT近岸风场产品与气象浮标观测的风向差异大,在其他近岸海域的ASCAT近岸风场产品和气象浮标的观测风场的对比结果与美国西海岸风场的对比结果特征相似。     

深圳湾公路大桥设计风速的推算

从资料的完整性和合理性、方法的规范性等几方面着手，对深圳湾公路大桥设计风速进行推算。利用深圳市气象站1954～2001年逐年年最大风速资料，通过时距、高度、地形等订正后得到相当于开阔平地上方10 m高度10 min年最大风速48年序列，使之符合建筑抗风指南或规范的要求。再利用极值Ⅰ型计算出不同重现期的基本风速，同时用耿贝尔的参数估算法和修正后的矩法参数估计法计算出不同重现期（200、120、100、60、50、30、10年）的基本风速。研究发现桥位区自动气象站与深圳市气象站最大风速正相关显著，前者是后者的1.1倍，从而可将基本风速外推到桥位区，进一步根据规范将该值放大1.11/2（1.049）倍至海面上，最终得到设计风速。还利用近地层风的指数和对数曲线推算出150 m内每10 m高度层的最大风速。     

风廓线雷达数据质量影响因子及处理算法

风廓线雷达系统误差和探测数据时空代表性影响风的数据质量。针对五波束探测风廓线雷达,提出雷达系统误差检测方法并分析风的空间不均匀分布和时间代表性对风数据质量的影响。在此基础上,通过比较4组三波束计算的两组水平风u,v分量离差进行风的空间均匀性判别,并比较了一致性平均和数学平均两种时间代表性处理算法间的测风精度差异。利用广东风廓线雷达站网2014年3—5月10部雷达数据进行方法应用和评估。结果表明:稳定大气条件下,3种型号雷达 (LC,PB,PA) 的有效数据高度分别达到3,6 km和10 km的雷达系统功能设计需求。经空间均匀性检验与时间一致性平均处理的风数据在降水期间质量优于业务雷达数据,3—5月10部雷达获取的两组u,v分量离差标准差约为1 m·s-1,表明经过空间一致性检验和时间一致性平均处理后的数据质量较好。