Seasonal variability of the observed and the projected daily temperatures in northern Saudi Arabia

Variability in the observed daily temperature for the 31-year period (1978–2008) is studied for northern Saudi Arabia (nSA) by computing the probability distribution functions (PDFs) on a seasonal basis. The 31-year base period is divided into three decades and the results for the first (1978–1987) and the last decade (1999–2008) are presented. When averaged over all seasons, mean values of the observed decadal PDFs depict a positive shift from the first to last decade in the minimum, mean, and maximum temperature of 0.81 °C, 1.03 °C, and 1.25 °C, respectively. The daily temperature datasets from a regional climate model (RCM) and two versions of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) are compared with the observed daily temperature datasets. The RCM is driven by re-analysis data for the historical period and by the HadCM3 model for the future, while the AOGCMs used are the GFDL CM2.0 and 2.1 models, with both HadCM3 and the GFDL simulations corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The average shifts from 1978–1987 to 1999–2008 in the mean value of the PDFs for the minimum, mean and maximum temperature are 0.63 °C, 0.54 °C and 0.45 °C, respectively, for the RCM, and 0.97 °C, 0.97 °C and 0.96 °C, respectively, for the AOGCM. Thus, the RCM shows a smaller shift in the mean of PDF for maximum temperature than for mean or minimum temperature, the AOGCM shows a comparable shift for all three, and the observations show a greater shift in the PDF for maximum temperature. For the period 2070–2099 relative to 1978–2008, the three average shifts are 4.11 °C, 3.87 °C and 3.44 °C for the RCM and 3.63 °C, 3.74 °C and 3.84 °C for the AOGCM.     

Arctic oscillation and the interannual variability of dust emissions from the Tarim Basin: a TOMS AI based study

This paper examines the teleconnection between the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) and dust activities in the Tarim Basin [in terms of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) level]. In this study, High Dust Active years (H) and Low Dust Active years (L) in terms of dust loading are identified. Composites of geopotential height at both 850 and 500 hPa level show that, the geopotential height level of H years is generally lower than the average, especially over the south end of the Central Siberian Plateau. The geopotential height level of L years is generally higher than the average, especially over the same region of Siberia. By correlating the AO and TOMS AI with geopotential height at different pressure levels, a South Siberia Geopotential Height Index (SSGI) is constructed. A strong positive correlation is found between AO and SSGI. Strong negative correlations are found between TOMS AI and AO, and between TOMS AI and SSGI. Through investigating the relation among these three measures (TOMS AI, AO and SSGI), we found that in the positive phase of AO, geopotential gradient between the inside and outside of the basin is small. The northerly wind from Siberia is weak and decreases when it encounters the north barrier of the basin. As a result, dust activities in the Tarim Basin is weak and Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) level measured in the basin is lower. In the negative phase of AO, geopotential gradient between the inside and outside of the basin is big. The northerly wind from Siberia is strong, and passes the north barrier of the basin. When it encounters the Tibetan Plateau, a component of the wind goes into the basin. During this process, the wind accelerates given the higher pressure gradient. As a result, dust activities in the Tarim Basin are frequent and intensive, and the EKE level in the basin is higher.     

Siberian high variability and its teleconnections with tropical circulations and surface air temperature over Saudi Arabia

Based on a generated time series for the central pressure of the Siberian High, and on defining a robust Siberian High Index (SHI), the behavior of this atmospheric center of action is examined from 1949 to 2010 with regard to inter-annual variations, persistence, trends, abrupt changes, spectral analysis and interactions. The interannual variability in the central pressure of the Siberian High is considerable. The mean downward linear and non-linear trend over the entire period (1949–2010) is estimated and is found to be statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. Low frequency variation and linearity within the SHI time series are found from the persistence analysis. Using spectral analysis, the center of action of the Siberian High is characterized by non-periodic behavior; the peaks occur only at the lowest frequency and may be related to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the El Niño region. The Siberian High is affected by the Hadley circulation cell; there is no detectable connection between the Walker circulation cell and the Siberian High. SSTs over the El Niño region may affect the Siberian High. Interactions between the Siberian High and the SSTs over the tropical Atlantic Ocean are absent. The SHI is positively correlated to surface air temperatures over Saudi Arabia, and this is statistically significant in the western and north-western regions.     

A cyclone over Saudi Arabia on 5 January 2002: A case study

Summary A shallow and short-lived subsynoptic cyclone is discussed as one of typical events causing natural disasters over Saudi Arabia on 5 January 2002 using the Japan Meteorological Agency global analysis dataset. The main cause for its formation was vorticity stretching. On the same day widespread rainfall over Saudi Arabia with enhanced precipitation over the mountainous Jeddah region was also observed using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project dataset. Owing to eastward-moving wintertime synoptic-scale Mediterranean disturbances, this rainfall was associated with frontal activity, modified by the local orography.     

Remote sensing of aerosols over the Solar Village, Saudi Arabia

Aerosol optical properties over Solar Village, Saudi Arabia have been studied using ground-based remote sensing observations through the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Our analysis covered 8 recorded years of aerosol measurements, starting from February 1999 through January 2007. The seasonal mean values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), the Ångström wavelength exponent α and the surface wind speed (V), exhibit a one year cyclical pattern. Seasonal variations are clearly found in the shape and magnitude of the volume size distribution (VSD) of the coarse size mode due to dust emission. The Spring is characterized by dusty aerosols as the modal value of the exponent α was low ~ 0.25 while that of AOT was high ~ 0.3. The modal value of wind speed was the highest ~ 3.6 m/s in spring. The increase in wind speed is responsible for increasing the concentration of dust particles during Spring. Spring of 2003 has the highest mean values of AOT, V and VSD and the lowest mean value for the exponent α. The seasonal mean values of the exponent α are anticorrelated with those of the wind speed (r = − 0.63). The annual mean values of the exponent α are well correlated (r = 0.77) with those of the difference between the maximum and minimum values of temperature ΔT. They are anticorrelated (r = − 0.74) with the annual mean values of the relative humidity. Large aerosol particles and high relative humidity increase the radiative forcing. This results in reduction of the values of the temperature difference ΔT.     

Spatiotemporal variability of methane over the Amazon from satellite observations

The spatiotemporal variability of the greenhouse gas methane(CH_4) in the atmosphere over the Amazon is studied using data from the space-borne measurements of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board NASA's AQUA satellite for the period 2003–12. The results show a pronounced variability of this gas over the Amazon Basin lowlands region, where wetland areas occur. CH_4 has a well-defined seasonal behavior, with a progressive increase of its concentration during the dry season, followed by a decrease during the wet season. Concerning this variability, the present study indicates the important role of ENSO in modulating the variability of CH_4 emissions over the northern Amazon, where this association seems to be mostly linked to changes in flooded areas in response to ENSO-related precipitation changes. In this region, a CH_4 decrease(increase) is due to the El Nino-related(La Ni ?na-related) dryness(wetness). On the other hand, an increase(decrease) in the biomass burning over the southeastern Amazon during very dry(wet) years explains the increase(decrease) in CH_4 emissions in this region. The present analysis identifies the two main areas of the Amazon, its northern and southeastern sectors, with remarkable interannual variations of CH_4. This result might be useful for future monitoring of the variations in the concentration of CH_4, the second-most important greenhouse gas, in this area.     

Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

We present a 3 million year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of 400 years. Geochemical data validate this record of hematite content as a proxy for the supply of aeolian dust from the Sahara. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derives from the eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (21°N). In corroboration of earlier work, we relate dust flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from green Sahara climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration recurred during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (100-kyr) and long (400-kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr (obliquity) cycle, which we discuss in terms of high- and low-latitude mechanisms that involve Southern Hemisphere meridional temperature contrasts and shifts in the latitudes of the tropics, respectively. We also observe a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the mid-Pleistocene transition (0.95 Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale climate variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets.     

Regional variability of convection over northern India during the pre-monsoon season

In general, the overall differences in activity and timing of convection are a result of the influence of large-scale regional and synoptic flow patterns on the local mesoscale environment. The linkage between the space?Ctime variability of observed clouds and rainfall, with large-scale circulation patterns and mesoscale variables over north India during the pre-monsoon season (March to May) is the focus of this paper. We use harmonic analysis to identify the first hour of rainfall for 42 stations spread over the north Indian region during the pre-monsoon summer season (March to May), from 1980 to 2000. The variability is observed to be systematic, with large regions having similar timing for occurrence of rainfall. The stations located in the foothills of the Himalayas have a late night to early morning maximum of first hour rainfall. In the northwestern plains, the first hour of rainfall mostly starts in the early afternoon to evening hours. Further eastward, the rainfall occurs in the late evening hours. Overall, there is a gradient in the occurrence of first rainfall events from late afternoon hours in the southern sections of the north Indian region to nocturnal maxima in the higher altitude regions. Five of these stations, located in different regions of homogenous timing of rainfall occurrence, were selected to analyze in detail the variable trigger for convection. Our results indicate that convective episodes occur mostly in association with the passage of westerly troughs over this region. These upper atmosphere troughs enable moisture to flow from the surrounding oceanic regions to the dry inland regions and also provide some dynamic support to the episodes of convection. However, the actual occurrence of convection is triggered by local factors, giving rise to the mesoscale structure of the weather systems during this season. Specifically, over the plains of northwest India, convection is triggered in a moistened environment by diurnal solar heating. The late night to early morning convection over the foothills is triggered by the orography, when the moistened airflow is normally incident on the mountain slopes. Further eastward, the primary trigger for localized moist convection is downdrafts from south-eastward propagating convective systems that originate at a north?Csouth dry line over north India. These systems propagate with a speed of about 15?m?s^?1. The above results are supported by geostationary satellite brightness temperature data for March to May 2008.     

Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East

Dust storm in the Middle East and south-west Asia is a natural hazard and the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain has been recognized as the main dust source in this area. In this study, more than 60 dust storms that occurred during the period 2003–2011 are investigated on the basis of MODIS satellite images, and 12 of the dust storms are selected for synoptic analysis using the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data. The potential dust sources in the Middle East and south-west Asian region (20°E to 80°E, 5°N to 50°N) are analyzed and used in the synoptic analysis. Dust storms in the region can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., the Shamal dust storms and the frontal dust storms. Synoptic systems, associated with the two categories, are distinguished and the frequency of the patterns is identified. For 68% of the Shamal dust storms, a high pressure system is situated between 0°E to 30°E and 27°N to 45°N, and a low pressure system between 50°E to 70°E and 23°N to 43°N. For 86% of the frontal dust storms, a high is located between 51°E to 67°E and 18°N to 33°N and a low between 28°E to 48°E and 32°N to 43°N. Three main patterns for Shamal dust storms are identified, which represent about 60% of the Shamal dust storms. This analysis confirms that the Shamal is related to the anticyclones located over northern Africa to Eastern Europe and the monsoon trough over Iraq, southern Iran, Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent. The analysis also shows that the main dust sink for the frontal dust storms in Tigris and Euphrates alluvial plain extends from center of Iraq to west and center of Iran and, in most severe cases, to northern Iran and the southern coast of the Caspian Sea.     

On the relationship between climatic variables and pressure systems over Saudi Arabia in the winter season

The synoptic circulation over Saudi Arabia is complicated and frequently governed by the effect of large-scale pressure systems. In this work, we used NCEP–NCAR global data to illustrate the relationship between climatic variables and the main pressure systems that affect the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia, and also to investigate the influence of these pressure systems on surface air temperature(SAT) and rainfall over the region in the winter season. It was found that there are two primary patterns of pressure that influence the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia. The first occurs in cases of a strengthening Subtropical High(Sub H), a weakening Siberian High(Sib H), a deepening of the Icelandic Low(Ice L), or a weakening of the Sudanese Low(Sud L). During this pattern, the Sub H combines with the Sib H and an obvious increase of sea level pressure(SLP) occurs over southern European, the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East. This belt of high pressure prevents interaction between midlatitude and extratropical systems, which leads to a decrease in the SAT,relative humidity(RH) and rainfall over Saudi Arabia. The second pattern occurs in association with a weakening of the Sub H, a strengthening of the Sib H, a weakening of the Ice L, or a deepening of the Sud L. The pattern arising in this case leads to an interaction between two different air masses: the first(cold moist) air mass is associated with the Mediterranean depression travelling from west to east, while the second(warm moist) air mass is associated with the northward oscillation of the Sud L and its inverted V-shape trough. The interaction between these two air masses increases the SAT, RH and the probability of rainfall over Saudi Arabia, especially over the northwest and northeast regions.     

A global satellite view of the seasonal distribution of mineral dust and its correlation with atmospheric circulation

Aerosols make a considerable contribution to the climate system through their radiative and cloud condensation nuclei effects, which underlines the need for understanding the origin of aerosols and their transport pathways. Seasonal distribution of mineral dust around the globe and its correlation with atmospheric circulation is investigated using satellite data, and meteorological data from ECMWF. The most important sources of dust are located in North Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia with an observed summer maximum, and East Asia with a spring peak. Maximum dust activity over North Africa and the Middle East in summer is attributed to dry convection associated with the summertime low-pressure system, while unstable weather and dry conditions are responsible for the spring peak in dust emission in East Asia. Intercontinental transport of mineral dust by atmospheric circulation has been observed, including trans-Atlantic transport of North African dust, trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust, and transport of dust from the Middle East across the Indian Ocean. The extent of African dust over the Atlantic Ocean and its latitudinal variation with season is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, including seasonal changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and variation of wind patterns. North African aerosols extend over longer distances across the North Atlantic in summer because of greater dust emission, an intensified easterly low level jet (LLJ) and strengthening of the Azores-Bermuda anticyclonic circulation. Transport of East Asian aerosol is facilitated by the existence of a LLJ that extends from East Asia to the west coast of North America.     

Annual and seasonal trends of cooling, heating, and industrial degree-days in coastal regions of Saudi Arabia

In this study, we systematically analyze the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETref) across China using Penman?CMonteith (P-M) method, exploring the major sensitive meteorological variables for ETref, and investigating influences of human activities, mainly urbanization in this study, on ETref changes in both space and time. We obtain some important conclusions: (1) decreasing annual and seasonal ETref is observed in the east, south and northwest China. However, a long strip lying between these regions is identified to be characterized by increasing ETref; (2) in the regions east to 100°E, the net total solar radiation is the main cause behind the decreasing ETref. In northwest China, however, relative humidity is recognized as the most sensitive variable for the ETref; (3) in the east and south China, urbanization greatly influences the ETref by directly decreasing net solar radiation. The increased air pollution and aerosols in the highly urbanized regions are the main driving factors causing decreasing net radiation; and (4) this study reveals accelerating hydrological cycle from south to north China. Besides, increasing ETref in the source regions of large rivers in China may pose new challenges for the basin-scale water resource management. The results of this study highlight the integrated effects of climate changes and human activities on ETref changes in different regions of China, which will be of great scientific and practical merits in in-depth understanding of hydrological cycle alterations under the changing environment in China.     

环渤海海域卫星反演风与站点观测风对比分析

选用了布设在渤海海域的浮标、平台、海岛共计18个站点,利用COARE算法进行站点风速的高度修正,对ASCAT卫星反演风与三类站点风进行对比分析。统计检验结果表明,卫星风与站点风相比,整体上卫星风速比站点风速大。浮标与卫星的风速差最小,而平台和海岛与卫星的风速差较大。风向对比结果显示,卫星风与站点风的风向平均偏差都很小,但均方根偏差却比较大。随着风速的增加,三类站点的风速平均偏差都是由大到小变化,由正值变化为负值,弱风速的时候卫星风速大于站点风速,高风速的时候卫星风速小于站点风速;风速的均方根偏差则相对稳定。卫星风与站点风的风向均方根偏差随着风速的增加而减小,在不同的方向上,风速偏差和风向偏差等统计量的区别较小。随季节的变化中,平台和海岛站的风速与卫星风速的平均偏差秋冬季大而春夏季小。     

Statistical guidance on seasonal forecast of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime

This study aimed to develop the seasonal forecast models of Korean dust days over South Korea in the springtime. Forecast mode was a ternary forecast (below normal, normal, above normal) which was classified based on the mean and the standard deviation of Korean dust days for a period of 30 years (1981-2010). In this study, we used three kinds of monthly data: the Korean dust days observed in South Korea, the National Center for Environmental Prediction in National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data for meteorological factors over source regions of Asian dust, and the large-scale climate indices offered from the Climate Diagnostic Center and Climate Prediction Center in NOAA. Forecast guidance consisted of two components; ordinal logistic regression model to generate trinomial distributions, and conversion algorithm to generate ternary forecast by two thresholds. Forecast guidance was proposed for each month separately and its predictability was evaluated based on skill scores.     

Evaluating aerosol optical properties observed by ground-based and satellite remote sensing over the Mediterranean and the Middle East in 2006

This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD), the particle size characteristics (Ångström coefficients) and single scattering albedos during selected episodes over the Mediterranean area in 2006, based on independent observational datasets. We compare the satellite data of MODIS and MISR with those of the ground-based AERONET and in situ measurements. In general the yearly mean MODIS and MISR AODs as well as their temporal variation are in good agreement with AERONET. The highest AODs are caused by mineral dust outbreaks and the accumulation of anthropogenic aerosols during stagnant meteorological conditions. The comparison of MODIS with MISR aerosol optical properties for June corroborates that the AODs, Ångström coefficients and single scattering albedos agree well, and indicates the presence of high dust loads over the Mediterranean. Later in summer, however, MISR AOD is generally lower than MODIS, which is consistent with previous studies that show that MISR tends to underestimate and MODIS tends to overestimate AOD over land when compared to AERONET observations. Comparing MODIS Aqua Deep Blue with MISR for June over the Saharan desert reveals some differences in the location and the maxima of the AODs. Over the eastern Mediterranean highest dust loads occur during spring and autumn. Biomass burning activities around the Black Sea during July and August cause high AODs (e.g. by agricultural waste burning), and the particulate pollution is transported to the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East by the prevailing northerly Etesian winds.     

A comprehensive study on the surface chemistry of particulate matter collected from Jeddah,Saudi Arabia

In this work, the X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) technique is utilized to analyze the surface chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) which was collected from various locations at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The main elements found on the surface of PM are carbon (C), oxygen (O) and silicon (Si) with combined percentage of 89.4–94.9 while traces of nitrogen (N), calcium (Ca), aluminum (Al), sodium (Na), chlorine (Cl), manganese (Mg), and sulfur (S) were also present. The analyzed XPS chemical state of C, O and Si was further used to determine their bonding with other elements occurring over the surface of PM. Carbon was found in the form of carbides (18.86%), fluorides (2.39%) and carbonates (78.75%); oxygen was observed as oxides (21.05%) and hydroxides (73.42%) of other metals; and silicon was detected as silicones (12.16%), nitrides (82.53%) and silicates (5.25%). The particle size of a PM is also of great concern for health issues, and thus has been investigated by the Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM). The Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) was employed for cross verification of detected elements by XPS.     

Sensitivity study of the seasonal mean circulation in the northern South China Sea

A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea （SCS） is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors.     

Synoptic variability of the thermodynamical state of Rybinsk Reservoir water masses

Presented is a brief characteristic of structurally new grid-box mathematical model for calculation of characteristics of hydrological regime of reservoirs of any size and residence time, morphological class and hydroeconomic purpose, with time resolution of 24 h and depth increment of 1 m. Presented are the results of its verification, as well as the fragments of results of diagnostic calculation of changes in vertical distribution of temperature, mineralization, and discharges of katabatic, density, wind drift and compensated flows in separate segments of four reaches of the Rybinsk Reservoir in case of weather changing for all seasons of two years with extreme flow.     

A numerical study of the seasonal variations for tracer redistribution by clouds over West Africa

The sensitivity of the horizontal and vertical transport of an inert tracer to seasonal variability of the complex West Africa circulations is explored by means of a 2D mesoscale meteorological model including explicit microphysics and describing the cloud dynamics of these circulations. The seasonal variations of the location and spatial extent of the cloudy masses associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are reproduced in a meridional cross section over West Africa. The redistribution of the inert tracer is shown to be due to the northward migration of the ITCZ from January to July and also to the enhancement of the convective activity of the ITCZ in July. The redistribution of carbon monoxide during the dry and wet seasons is discussed, highlighting the importance of the biomass burning during the dry season as a source of trace gas enrichment in the upper levels of the tropical troposphere over West Africa.     

Cloud modification in Saudi Arabia: Statistical estimation of the results

The results of experiments to enhance precipitation in Saudi Arabia by Weather Modification Inc. (USA) are presented. Statistical analysis of radar measurements indicates that there are significant changes in cloud characteristics and an increase in precipitation due to seeding.