Synoptic aspects of the catastrophic flood formation in the northeast of Australia during extreme La Niña 2010–2011

A synoptic mechanism of the formation of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics of the Indian and Pacific oceans observed during the La Niña 2010–2011 culmination is considered using the daily data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. It was established that the most destructive flood during the whole modern history of Australia was caused by the unprecedented activity of the tropical cyclogenesis in the circulation system of the Australian summer monsoon. The tropical cyclones affected in turn the monsoon regions of Australia both from the Indian Ocean through the system of the equatorial zone of westerlies and from the Pacific Ocean through the system of the eastern trade wind. The Pacific trade wind during the Australian flood was maximally developed and the South Pacific high was shifted considerably from the coast of Peru and Chile to the center of the ocean. It is demonstrated that the maximum values of negative SST anomalies were observed not in the east of the Pacific Ocean as in the case of the “canonical” La Niña but they were shifted significantly to the west to the line of the date change. All this enables to refer the extreme La Niña 2010–2011 to La Niña of Modoki type.     

Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960–2011 in Guangdong Province,southern China

Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann–Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south–north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran’s I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January–March and July–October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing trends at 3 stations), June (increasing trends at 4 stations located in the Beijiang River Basin), and October (decreasing trends at 4 stations) at the monthly scale. In accordance with the mean annual rainfall over Guangdong Province, the mean annual rainfall erosivity showed two significant periodicities of 3–6 and 10–12 years at a confidence level of 95 %. In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights into the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province and support for agrolandscape planning and water and soil conservation efforts in this region.     

Analysis of the Winter Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity and Its Synoptic Background in China during 2010-20

Cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning data and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset are analyzed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal distribution and synoptic background of winter-season CG flashes between December 2010 and February 2020 in China.We identify three Winter Lightning Frequent Areas(WLAs):the southwest side of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(WLA1),the east side of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(WLA2),and the Poyang Lake Plain(WLA3).The CG lightning flashes most frequently occur at local midnight and have a monthly peak in February.The CG lightning in WLA1 is mostly generated in non-frontal weather;however,the lightning in WLA2 and WLA3 mostly occurs in frontal systems.The frontal circulation situation is divided into four typical types:transversal trough after high pressure,low vortex,confrontational convergence,and asymptotic convergence.In all typical weather patterns,the lightning occurs downstream of a 500 hPa trough and is accompanied by a southwesterly low-level jet.The convective parameters of winter thunderstorms differ greatly from those of summer thunderstorms.The maximum convective available potential energy(MCAPE)and K-index(KI)are more useful metrics than convective available potential energy(CAPE)and Showalter index(SI)during winter.This study further deepens the understanding of the distribution characteristics of winter CG lightning in China,which motivates further research to improve the ability of winter thunderstorm prediction.     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation indices during 1961–2010 in Hunan Province,central south China

Based on daily precipitation records at 75 meteorological stations in Hunan Province, central south China, the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation indices is analyzed during 1961–2010. For precipitation extremes, most of precipitation indices suggest that both the amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation are increasing, especially the mean precipitation amount on a wet day, showing a significant positive trend. Meanwhile, both of the monthly rainfall heterogeneity and the contribution of the days with the greatest rainfall show an upward trend. When it comes to rainfall erosivity, most of this province is characterized by high values of annual rainfall erosivity. Although the directions of trends in annual rainfall erosivity at most stations are upward, only 6 of the 75 stations have significant trends. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variation of dryness/wetness has been assessed by the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPI series computed on 24-month time scales. The results demonstrated a noticeable spatial variability with three subregions characterized by different trends: a remarkable wet tendency prevails in the central and southern areas, while the northern areas are dominated by a remarkable dry tendency.     

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of 30 March–2 April 2009 heavy rainfall event in Iran

A heavy rainfall event during the period from 30th of March to 2nd of April 2009 has been studied using upper air and surface data as well as NOAA HYSPLIT model. This observational study attempts to determine factors responsible for the occurrence of heavy rainfall over Iran induced by Mediterranean cyclone, a western severe sub-tropical storm that made rainfall on most regions of the country. On the surface chart, cyclones, anticyclones and weather fronts were identified. The positions of the cold and warm fronts, which extended from a two-core low pressure center, were quite in good agreements with directions of winds i.e., westerly, southerly and easterly flows as well as the regions of precipitation. The heavy rain event occurred due to a Mediterranean cyclone’s activity over the study area, while other conditions were also responsible for this event such as an unstable atmosphere condition with abundant low-level moisture, which the warm and moist air parcels were brought by the southwesterly low-level jet into the country from Persian Gulf, Oman Sea, Indian Ocean and Caspian Sea at lower levels as well as Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and Persian Gulf at upper levels over the examined period. A strong low-level convergence zone was observed along the wind-shift line between the southwesterly flow because of the low-level jet and the northeasterly flow due to the Russian high pressure. The amount of precipitable water varied between 20 and 24 kg m^?2, surface moisture convergence exceeded 2.5 g kg^?1 s^?1 and the highest CAPE value in the sounding profiles was observed in Birjand site with 921 J kg^?1 during the study period. The HYSPLIT model outputs confirmed the observed synoptic features for the examined system over the country.     

Analysis of the Trends of Thunderstorms in 1951–2007 in Jiangsu Province

Based on the 1951–2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu, a study is conducted for their climate trends, periodicity, spatiotemporal patterns, and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate, wavelet analysis, and GR for diagnosis. Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province. The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring, when the variation is not significant in the study period. In this province, the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years. On an inter-annual basis, the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s, the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s, the late 1980s, and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, the mid-to-late-1990s, and the late 1990s to 2007. There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province. At 50% GR, the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR, the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October). For the distribution of periods, the periods >8–10 years are relatively stable for the entire province. Based on 1951–2007 period analysis, the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years.     

Interdecadal change in the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave during 1951–2010

In this study,we defined an index of the Antarctic Circumploar Wave(ACW) and analyzed its variability for the period 1951-2010.A regime shift of the circumpolar westerly in the Southern Ocean and an interdecadal change of the ACW,which occurred around the mid-1970s,were identified.Associated with these changes,the variations of the ACW show three distinct sub-periods:1951-1973,1974-1980,and 1981-2010.They are characterized by different speeds,amplitudes,and wave structures.We briefly investigated possible mechanisms responsible for the different behaviors of the ACW during the three periods.     

Cause of severe droughts in Southwest China during 1951–2010

The cause of severe droughts over the Southwest China (SWC) during the local dry season is investigated based on the station rainfall data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data during 1951–2010. The droughts are in general consistent with local anomalous descent in the middle troposphere. The diagnosis of the vertical motion (omega) equation indicates that the local descent is primarily maintained by the anomalous cold temperature advection processes. Both the advection of anomalous temperature by mean wind and the advection of mean temperature by anomalous wind contribute to maintaining the anomalous descent over the SWC region. A composite analysis shows that the circulation anomaly over SWC is induced by remote forcing from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. During La Niña years, enhanced heating over the Maritime Continent induces anomalous downward motion over SWC through the connection of local Hadley circulation. Adiabatic warming associated with the downward motion helps to set up and maintain the local anomalous anticyclone. Another possible route is through the North Atlantic-Asia teleconnection, in which downstream Rossby wave energy propagation plays a crucial role. A negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation may trigger a large-scale wave train pattern that induces an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical Asia and promotes the dry condition over SWC.     

Synoptic Features of the Second Meiyu Period in 1998 over China

1. IntroductionThe Meiyu, translated as plum rain, is a majorannual rainfall event over the Yangtze River Basin inChina and southern Japan in June and July. Theheavy rainfall is mainly caused by a quasi-stationaryfront, known as the Meiyu front, extended from east-ern China to southern Japan (Tao, 1958; Matsumotoet al., 1971; Akiyama, 1990; Gao et al, 1990). Studiesof Zhang and Zhang (1990) and Chen et al. (1998)pointed that the Meiyu front is one of the most signif-icant circulation s…     

Trends of precipitation extremes during 1960–2008 in Xinjiang, the Northwest China

The spatial–temporal variability of the precipitation extremes defined by eight precipitation indices based on daily precipitation dataset was analyzed using the linear regression method and the Mann–Kendall test. The results indicate that increasing trends in the precipitation amount, rainy days, and the intensity of the extreme precipitation were identified at above 70 % of the total rain stations considered in this study, with more than 30 % of them were significant, while most stations show notable decreasing trend in the annual maximum consecutive no-rain days. Significantly increasing trends of the precipitation extremes are observed mainly in the northern Xinjiang and the north of the southern Xinjiang. Most extreme precipitation indices show a potential regime shift starting from the middle of 1980s. The magnitude of the trends is compatible with their pattern of spatial stability. The generally increasing trends in precipitation extremes are found in this study.     

Changing structure of the precipitation process during 1960–2005 in Xinjiang, China

Using daily precipitation data spanning 1960–2005 from 51 meteorological stations in Xinjiang province, China, spatial and temporal changes in consecutive maximum wet days in the year, summer, and winter were investigated. Fifteen precipitation extreme indices, which reflect the attributes of consecutive maximum wet days, were defined, and the modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the tendencies, and changes in the indices were evaluated through linear regression with the F test. Results showed that: (1) two consecutive wet days occurred most frequently in the year and summer, and the fractional contributions and precipitation intensities decreased as the duration increased; in winter, one wet day had the maximum possibility, fractional contributions decreased and intensities increased as the duration increased. (2) The possibility of consecutive wet days which had short durations reduced, while those of long durations increased; annual fractional contributions of short durations decreased, while those of long durations increased; summer and winter fractional contribution of all durations decreased first and then increased; the intensities of all durations increased. (3) The wet tendency was identified in Xinjiang; the wet trend in Southern Xinjiang was more significant than Northern Xinjiang in summer, while in winter the wet tendency in Northern Xinjiang was more pronounced.     

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960–2013 in Hunan Province,central south China

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960–2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960–1986 and 1987–2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970–1980 and after 1992.     

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

Average Amount and Stability of Available Agro-Climate Resources in the Main Maize Cropping Regions in China during 1981–2010

The available agro-climate resources that can be absorbed and converted into dry matter could directly affect crop growth and yield under climate change. Knowledge of the average amount and stability of available agro-climate resources for maize in the main cropping regions of China under climate change is essential for farmers and advisors to optimize cropping choices and develop adaptation strategies under limited resources. In this study, the three main maize cropping regions in China—the North China spring maize region (NCS), the Huanghuaihai summer maize region (HS), and the Southwest China mountain maize region (SCM)—were selected as study regions. Based on observed solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation data, we analyzed the spatial distributions and temporal trends in the available agro-climate resources for maize during 1981–2010. During this period, significantly prolonged climatological growing seasons for maize [3.3, 2.0, and 4.7 day (10 yr)^–1 in NCS, HS, and SCM] were found in all three regions. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of the available agro-climate resources differed among the three regions. The available heating resources for maize increased significantly in the three regions, and the rates of increase were higher in NCS [95.5°C day (10 yr)–1] and SCM [93.5°C day (10 yr)^–1] than that in HS [57.7°C day (10 yr)^–1]. Meanwhile, decreasing trends in the available water resources were found in NCS [–5.3 mm (10 yr)^–1] and SCM [–5.8 mm (10 yr)^–1], whereas an increasing trend was observed in HS [3.0 mm (10 yr)^–1]. Increasing trends in the available radiation resources were found in NCS [20.9 MJ m^–2 (10 yr)^–1] and SCM [25.2 MJ m^–2 (10 yr)^–1], whereas a decreasing trend was found in HS [11.6 MJ m^–2 (10 yr)^–1]. Compared with 1981–90, the stability of all three resource types decreased during 1991–2000 and 2001–10 in the three regions. More consideration should be placed on the extreme events caused by more intense climate fluctuations. The results can provide guidance in the development of suitable adaptations to climate change in the main maize cropping regions in China.