湖北省电线积冰日数气候特征与大气环境异常的关系研究

利用1980—2014年湖北省11个气象台站电线积冰观测资料以及Hadley海温资料、NCEP再分析资料,分析湖北省冬季(11—3月)电线积冰日数的气候变化特征;在此基础上,分析积冰异常年秋冬海气场变化。结果表明,湖北省电线积冰集中在钟祥、荆州、襄樊、仙桃和随州等5站,占11站电线积冰总日数的73%。电线积冰在当年11月至次年3月均有出现,积冰日数在1990年代初出现显著减少趋势。湖北省电线积冰异常偏多年,9—11月热带中东太平洋出现El Nino型异常海温分布,同期冬季孟加拉湾和南海的水汽向北输送至湖北,湖北水汽偏多,同时湖北受贝加尔湖异常反气旋东南侧东北气流和中国东部沿海异常反气旋西北侧偏南气流共同作用,有利于降水发生和积冰出现。     

辽宁电线覆冰日数气候特征与大气环流异常的关系

利用1980—2019年辽宁地区11个有电线覆冰观测项目的气象站资料、NCEP再分析资料和Hadley海温资料,分析辽宁电线覆冰日的气候特征以及利于覆冰发生的环流特征和影响因素。结果表明：辽宁电线覆冰现象出现次数存在三个高值地区,分别为辽宁北部地区、辽东山区和辽宁中西部沿海地区。辽宁电线覆冰主要发生在10月至翌年4月,1980—2019年辽宁电线覆冰日数呈显著减少趋势。电线覆冰日数具有显著的年际变化周期,主要的年际变化周期为5—7 a,近40 a年际振荡能量经历了3次增强—减弱的变化。辽宁覆冰高指数年与低指数年秋季9—11月SST距平之差表现为El Nino型分布。覆冰日数异常偏多年,太平洋海温呈现El Nino型,西北太平洋海表温度整体偏冷,日本海区海表温度存在明显负异常;同时大陆上贝加尔湖上空存在高压中心,北半球亚洲地区纬向为“北高南低”的形式,冬季风偏强,冷空气南下频繁。辽宁受到贝加尔湖异常反气旋环流东南侧东北气流控制,鄂霍茨克海上空存在弱反气旋环流,导致日本海上空有异常东风,当南下冷空气与东侧日本海输送的偏冷水汽交汇,容易导致温度较冷的大雾,引发雾凇现象,过冷水汽在电线上凝结,导致电线覆冰现象的发生。     

Winter precipitation variability and large-scale circulation patterns in Romania

Summary The spatial and temporal variability of winter precipitation and its links to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Romania are examined. The data set is composed of observed rainfall at 30 meteorological stations during the 1961–1996 period. The large-scale field is represented by the observed geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) over the same period, covering the latitudinal belt between 20° N–90° N (resolution 2.5°×2.5°).The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is applied to detect inhomogeneities in the data, and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests are used in order to identify trends and change points in the winter precipitation time series. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique is used for data reduction in order to highlight the basic patterns of rainfall variability in Romania. The covariance map between precipitation EOF time series (PCs) and the Z500 field, as well as the correlation coefficients between the PCs and circulation indices are calculated in order to identify the influence of large-scale circulation patterns on winter precipitation in Romania.A significant decreasing trend is identified in winter precipitation with a downward shift in winter 1969/1970, most significant from a statistical point of view in the extra-Carpathian region. This change seems to be real since the SNHT test does not reveal any inhomogeneity during the period tested. Significant relationships are found between winter precipitation variability in Romania and the large-scale circulation pattern, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the blocking phenomenon in the Atlantic-European sector. The positive phase of the NAO and the reduction in blocking activity could be one of the causes of the decrease in winter precipitation in Romania.     

An analysis of the difference between the multiple linear regression approach and the multimodel ensemble mean

An investigation of the difference in seasonal precipitation forecast skills between the multiple linear regression (MLR) ensemble and the simple multimodel ensemble mean (EM) was based on the forecast quality of individual models. The possible causes of difference in previous studies were analyzed. In order to make the simulation capability of studied regions relatively uniform, three regions with different temporal correlation coefficients were chosen for this study. Results show the causes resulting in the incapability of the MLR approach vary among different regions. In the Nino3.4 region, strong co-linearity within individual models is generally the main reason. However, in the high latitude region, no significant co-linearity can be found in individual models, but the abilities of single models are so poor that it makes the MLR approach inappropriate for superensemble forecasts in this region. In addition, it is important to note that the use of various score measurements could result in some discrepancies when we compare the results derived from different multimodel ensemble approaches.     

鲁西南8-9月份阴雨日数与前期大气环流关系

对鲁西南1979-2008年8-9月份阴雨日数进行统计分析,发现8-9月份阴雨日数总体呈上升趋势;与前期北半球500hPa月平均高度场进行相关分析,结果表明：8-9月份阴雨日数与北半球500hPa平均高度场存在显著的滞后相关性,共得出45个优势相关区,相关区具有明显的区域性,大多数优势相关区出现在60篘以南地区。阴雨日数与前期极涡位置及强弱有很好的对应关系。从优势相关区提取的预报因子具有明显的季节性,上一年秋冬季预报因子占6/9;建立预报方程,试用效果较好。     

Precipitation climate of Central Asia and the large-scale atmospheric circulation

The precipitation climate in the larger Tian Shan region of Central Asia is described in terms of the climatological seasonal moisture fluxes and background circulation based on the ERA-40 reanalysis data and a precipitation reanalysis. The study area is partitioned into (1) the Tarim river basin, (2) bordering regions of China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and (3) Northwestern China. Moisture supply to these areas is primarily due to the midlatitude westerlies with contributions from higher latitudes. In addition, moisture from the Indian Ocean is notably imported into the Tarim drainage area. Monthly interannual precipitation variability relates to the variability of hemispheric circulation patterns. Extreme precipitation above and below normal in Western China and Central Asia is analyzed using the standardized precipitation index. Related circulation composites show that, despite regional and seasonal differences, episodes of extreme and severe dryness are dominated by various upstream standing wave patterns from the North Atlantic to Central Asia. These features extend further downstream to the North Pacific. Non-symmetry between wet and dry composites is noted upstream and in regional moisture flux composites.     

The relationship between the wind and waves in the North Atlantic and atmospheric circulation oscillations

Characteristics of wind and waves are computed using the data of instrumental observations on the moored buoys in the northeastern part of the North Atlantic during the cold periods (November–March) of 2009–2013. Their comparison is carried out for different phases of the North Atlantic and East Atlantic oscillations and for the combinations of these phases.     

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in GCM experiments

Several 19-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) observed in 1970–1988 were examined to study extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST monthly variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA), which select from two time-dependent fields optimally correlated pairs of patterns, was applied to monthly anomalies of SST in the North Alantic and Pacific Oceans and monthly anomalies of sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere. In the GAGO run the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by north-south dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospehric response is more local than in the GAGO run with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the sum of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. The artificial meridional SST gradients at 25°–30°N probably influence the results of the MOGA and TOGA runs. The atmopsheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 hPa. winter climate. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the model leading variability modes and canonical patterns of 500 hPa geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans.     

Multidecadal changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events in Uruguay and the general atmospheric circulation

We analyze changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events and the large scale atmospheric circulation before and after the 1976 climate shift. To do so we first constructed a set of two temperature indices that describe the occurrence of warm nights (TN90) and cold nights (TN10) based on a long daily observed minimum temperature database that spans the period 1946?C2005, and then divided the period into two subperiods of 30?years each (1946?C1975 and 1976?C2005). We focus on summer (TN10) and winter (TN90) seasons. During austral summer before 1976 the interannual variability of cold nights was characterized by a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with a cyclonic anomaly centered off Uruguay that favoured the entrance of cold air from the south. After 1976 cold nights are associated not with the SAM, but with an isolated vortex at upper levels over South Eastern South America. During austral winter before 1976, the El Ni?o phenomenon dominated the interannual variability of warm nights through an increase in the northerly warm flow into Uruguay. However, after 1976 the El Ni?o connection weakened and the variability of warm nights is dominated by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly located in the South Atlantic and a low pressure center over South America. This configuration also strengthens the northward flow of warm air into Uruguay. Our results suggest that changes in El Ni?o evolution after 1976 may have played a role in altering the relationship between temperature extreme events in Uruguay and the atmospheric circulation.     

Trends in warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula: relationships to large-scale variables

The aims of this study are to identify the trend of warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula and to connect the variations with large-scale variables. The reasons for performing this analysis are the effects that extremes events have on different ecosystems. Here, we present the results on spatial and temporal variability of warm days (TX90), or those exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, and cold nights (TN10), or those falling below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature. The extreme indices were derived from daily observations at stations and gridded data over land area for the period 1950 to 2006. Significant trends of more warm days and fewer cold nights were found. The trend to fewer cold nights is within the interval of global results given by the IPCC AR4 report; however, the trend to warm days is greater than the corresponding global trend. The influence of large-scale variables on these extreme indices was examined by means of the Empirical Orthogonal Function, correlation, composite maps and multiple regression analyses. Changes in TX90 are connected with the Scandinavian teleconnection index and a preferred mode of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the North Atlantic. Changes in TN10 are connected with the East Atlantic teleconnection index and the leading mode of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic area. Based on the links between the extreme indices and the large-scale variables we derived statistical models to describe the response of TX90 and TN10 to atmospheric circulation and SST variations. The models characterized the observed variations of TX90 and TN10 reasonably well. The results of this study encourage us to analyze, in further work, how temperature extremes might change over the Iberian Peninsula under warmer climate conditions.     

ENSO与北半球冬季大气环流异常年代际关系的数值模拟

利用NCAR/CCM3大气环流模式,模拟不同海温背景场强迫下,北半球冬季大气环流对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明,模式能够模拟出不同海温背景场下,北半球冬季大气环流对ENSO事件的不同响应,模拟结果与诊断结果基本一致。在20世纪70年代末之后的平均海温背景场强迫下,El Nio对阿留申低压的加强作用比70年代末之前更明显,而ENSO暖位相对蒙古高压的作用则由70年代末之前的轻微减弱变为明显加强。虽然70年代末以后ENSO事件的强度比70年代末之前有所增大,但ENSO对东亚大槽和东亚冬季风的减弱作用反而不再那么明显;同时在高空风场中,由ENSO激发出的PNA型异常环流在70年代末以后明显加强。     

Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation

Summary Trends in the time series of air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and onset of climatic seasons at ten stations in Estonia during 1951–2000 are analysed. Using the conditional Mann-Kendall test, these trends are compared with trends in the characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation: the NAO and AO indices, frequency of circulation forms according to the Vangengeim-Girs’ classification, and the northern hemisphere teleconnection indices. The objective of the study is to estimate the influence of trends in circulation on climate changes in Estonia. Statistically significant increasing trends in air temperature are detected in January, February, March, April and May, in winter (DJF), spring (MAM) and in the cold period (NDJFM). The trends in precipitation, as a rule, differ from station to station. Increasing trends are present during the cold half-year – from October until March – and also in June. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 17–20 days inland and by 21–36 days on the coast. The onsets of early spring and spring have shifted to an earlier date. Some important changes have occurred in the parameters of atmospheric circulation during 1951–2000. Intensity of zonal circulation, i.e. westerlies, has increased during the cold period, especially in February and March. Results of the conditional Mann-Kendall test indicate that the intensification of westerlies in winter is significantly related to climate changes in winter and also in spring. A negative trend in the East Atlantic Jet (EJ) index, i.e. the weakening of the westerlies in May has caused warming during that month. Decrease in northerly circulation, i.e. in frequency of circulation form C and in East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection index (EW) is related to an increase in precipitation in October.     

青藏高原夏季热力状态和南半球大气环流的可能联系

本文通过对观测和再分析数据采用最大协方差分析以及回归、合成等分析方法,研究了青藏高原夏季地表气温与南半球大气环流之间的遥相关关系。结果表明,前期(4月)南半球极地—中高纬度大气环流呈现负位势高度异常、较低纬度印度洋—西太平洋区域呈现正位势高度异常时,高原中部和东部大部分区域夏季出现暖异常。在上述遥相关中,印度洋—西太平洋海温异常可能起到了重要的中间桥梁作用。在高原夏季温度偏高的年份,前期跨赤道的印度洋—西太平洋海温也持续偏暖,带来的海陆热力对比减小、经向跨赤道气流减弱有利于削弱夏季的季风环流,使得高原夏季降水偏少,有利于形成高原夏季的暖异常。在这一高原气温—南半球大气环流的遥相关关系中,4月南半球的大气位势高度场异常和与印度洋—西太平洋海温异常相关的异常高度场分布也十分相似。这一前期的跨赤道区域海温异常与南半球中高纬度位势高度场异常的因果关系仍有待进一步揭示。     

Relations between atmospheric circulation and precipitation in Belgium

The objective Lamb circulation type (CT) classification method, based on the strength, direction and vorticity of the geostrophic flow, is applied to Belgium. Eleven different large-scale synoptic circulation patterns are derived on a daily scale for the period 1962 and 1999. The circulation patterns are subsequently related to precipitation amount and occurrence for six stations characterising different regions in Belgium, namely coastal, flat and hilly areas. Based on precipitation occurrence and intensity, five wet classes are defined, which are responsible for 83% of the total precipitation amount. It is shown that a regression model based on CT as predictors represents precipitation variability better in winter and autumn than in spring and summer. On the monthly scale and in winter, CTs explain 60.3% of the precipitation variability.     

冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和海温异常的联系

利用1979—2015年ECMWF逐日再分析资料,通过EOF分解和回归分析研究了冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与海表面温度异常(SSTA)和大气环流异常之间的联系。研究结果表明:冬季中纬度北太平洋地区850 h Pa低频尺度环流存在3个明显的变化模态:第一模态为海盆尺度的单极型异常气旋(反气旋)式环流,同期太平洋SSTA呈现El Ni1o(La Ni1a)以及PDO暖位相(冷位相)空间分布,阿留申低压强度增强(减弱),对流层中高层是正位相(负位相)的PNA型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部南压(北抬);第二模态为在白令海峡和副热带地区呈气旋式与反气旋式环流南北向偶极型变化,同时中纬度北太平洋SSTA呈现NPGO(North Pacific Gyre Oscillation)正位相(负位相)的空间分布,黑潮区域SSTA偏暖(偏冷),北太平洋SSTA经向梯度加大(减小),对流层中高层为负位相(正位相)的WP型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴整体偏北(偏南),强度增强(减弱);第三模态为北太平洋中西部和北美西岸呈气旋式与反气旋式环流东西向偶极型异常,黑潮区域SSTA偏冷(偏暖)而北太平洋东部SSTA偏暖(偏冷),SSTA纬向梯度加大(减弱),同时赤道东太平洋出现类似La Ni1a(El Ni1o)的SSTA分布,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部明显减弱(加强)而西部略有加强(减弱)。     

2022年华南极端“龙舟水”与大气环流及海温异常的关系

利用华南192个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料,NOAA月平均海表温度资料(ERSST V5)及向外长波辐射(OLR)资料,采用相关、合成分析的方法研究了2022年华南“龙舟水”异常与大气环流及海温异常的关系。结果表明,2022年“龙舟水”期间,东亚大槽、东北冷涡偏强,南下冷空气偏强,同时西太平洋副热带高压和南支槽均偏强,在华南存在明显的水汽辐合。2022年发生的拉尼娜事件,大气环流对其有明显响应,Walker环流增强,华南对流明显加强,菲律宾以东存在异常反气旋环流,副高加强导致其西北侧的西南风加强,向华南水汽输送显著增强,同时华南存在显著的上升运动。大气环流和海温的异常导致2022年华南极端“龙舟水”。     

Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export

Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under investigation. To better understand these mechanisms, we present an analysis of the variability of the liquid FW export from the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950–2007, using a simulation from an energy and mass conserving global ocean–sea ice model, coupled to an Energy Moisture Balance Model of the atmosphere, and forced with daily winds from the NCEP reanalysis. Our results show that the simulated liquid FW exports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait lag changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Arctic by 1 and 6 years, respectively. The variability of the liquid FW exports is caused by changes in the cyclonicity of the atmospheric forcing, which cause a FW redistribution in the Arctic through changes in Ekman transport in the Beaufort Gyre. This in turn causes changes in the sea surface height (SSH) and salinity upstream of the CAA and Fram Strait, which affect the velocity and salinity of the outflow. The SSH changes induced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found to explain a large part of the variance of the liquid FW export, while the local wind plays a much smaller role. We also show that during periods of increased liquid FW export from the Arctic, the strength of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced and the ocean heat transport into the Arctic is increased. These results are particularly relevant in the context of global warming, as climate simulations predict an increase in the liquid FW export from the Arctic during the twenty-first century.