中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区的生产潜力模拟

水稻是孟加拉国、印度和缅甸最重要的粮食作物,研究中国超级杂交稻对孟印缅地区的水稻增产潜力,对于保障孟中印缅经济走廊的粮食安全与区域可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。在全面收集孟印缅地区气候、土壤、田间管理信息和农业统计数据的基础上,结合中国籼型杂交稻F优498和丰两优4号的品种信息和区试数据,通过EPIC模型模拟了1996-2005年雨季孟印缅3国在不同情景下的超级稻生产潜力,并分析了孟印缅地区主要胁迫因子对超级稻单产潜力的影响。研究表明：① 中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区2000年的灌溉和施肥水平下单产潜力为10.22 t/ha,在充分灌溉且合理施肥的水平下单产潜力为11.33 t/ha。② 孟印缅地区雨季稻的增产空间达22771万t,水稻增产潜力最大的地区是印度的恒河平原东部、印度半岛东南沿海与缅甸的伊洛瓦底三角洲。③ 印度德干高原东北部、西南部和印度大平原西北部需要进一步完善灌溉设备以满足高产水稻用水,缅甸的中南部平原地区和印度的东北地区则需要增施氮肥以满足高产水稻用肥。     

沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估

根据自然灾害风险评估基本原理,从暴雨洪涝致灾因子危险性及承灾体易损性出发,以沿淮湖泊洼地区域为示范研究区,综合考虑降水量、径流量、地形与河网密度、土地利用数据、人口及经济数据等指标,利用GIS的数据处理功能,运用标准化方法对相关指标进行标准化处理,得到标准化的多源栅格数据;基于层次分析法确定各影响指标因子权重,采用ARCGIS9.2的ModelBuilder建模工具建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型;通过地理信息系统的地图代数功能及综合指数法,得出洪水灾害综合风险等级评价图;并利用2003年沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝淹没面积数据验证暴雨灾害综合风险评估结果;统计分析发现,洪涝淹没区有60.66%位于高风险区,33.29%位于中高风险区,6.05%位于中风险区;结果表明,沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝中高风险及高风险区的准确度达93.95%,洪涝灾害风险评估结果基本符合实际情况,风险评估精度较高。模型的建立及风险区划图的制作,对暴雨洪涝灾害宏观决策具有重要的参考价值。     

区域合作与地缘安全复合系统结构与功能研究——以澜湄合作与孟中印缅经济走廊对比分析为例

在系统论思想指导下,认为区域合作与地缘安全复合系统是区域合作子系统与地缘安全子系统在相互作用下形成的具有一定结构与功能的有机整体。对区域合作与地缘安全复合系统的物质结构、观念结构、复合系统整体结构、整合功能、反馈功能进行了定性研究,并对澜湄合作和孟中印缅经济走廊开展了对比分析,从区域合作与地缘安全复合系统结构与功能的角度探讨了为何澜湄合作如火如荼地开展、而孟中印缅经济走廊仍没有获得实质性进展,认为澜湄合作的区域合作与地缘安全复合系统结构与功能让该复合系统处于协同演进状态、而孟中印缅经济走廊的区域合作与地缘安全复合系统结构与功能使该复合系统处于冲突退化的状态。     

基于RS和GIS的河西走廊风沙灾害风险评估

河西走廊位于中国西北干旱、半干旱区,受到周边沙漠和戈壁的影响,风沙灾害问题比较严重。依据灾害系统理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性和承灾体易损性3个方面构建区域灾害风险评估体系和评估模型,对河西走廊风沙灾害风险进行评估。结果表明：（1）高风险地区主要分布在河西走廊内部的沙漠区,如酒泉市、玉门市、金塔县、高台县、临泽县以及武威市的北部地区,约占总面积的10.8%;（2）较高风险的地区主要分布在敦煌市、阿克塞哈萨克族自治县和河西走廊的北部,约占总面积的56.5%;（3）低风险地区位于河西走廊的东南部,该区在祁连山的天然屏障下,植被盖度高,雨水丰富;（4）作为风沙灾害的主体和对象,河西走廊的社会经济因素对风沙灾害风险的贡献率较低。而作为风沙灾害的物质基础和动力条件,沙源和风速仍是河西走廊风沙灾害风险的主要诱因;（5）经济发达城市在风沙灾害中具有更高的易损性,应该对城市邻近沙源进行重点防治。     

基于博弈论组合赋权的洪灾风险评价及其年代际演变

运用博弈论耦合主观和客观权重,构建基于模糊综合评价法的流域洪灾风险评价模型,并以北江流域为例,评价了研究区1990、2000和2010年的洪水灾害风险,揭示了洪灾风险年代际的时空演变特征。结果表明：1）运用博弈论组合主客观权重可以避免单一权重的片面性,得到更合理的、符合实际情况的综合权重;2）北江流域3期洪灾风险总体分布相似,大多数区域表现为低风险区,高、中、低风险区占全流域面积比分别约为60%、15%和20%,高风险区主要位于清远―怀集一带,以及佛冈、翁源等地,这些地区具有地势低洼、人口分布密集、经济较发达、暴雨集中等特征;3）高风险区仍表现出逐渐扩大的趋势,在2000―2010年高风险区扩大较为显著,风险上升主要由土地利用类型、人口密度和区域经济发展等的变化所导致。     

河西走廊山洪灾害危险度区划

探究河西走廊山洪灾害危险性分布特征,可为该地区山洪灾害监测、预警和防治工程规划提供科学支持,对保障地区人民生命财产安全具有重要的社会意义。从河西走廊山洪灾害防治及预警角度出发,根据河西走廊山洪灾害发生的机制,选取高程标准差、坡度、植被覆盖度、降水、河网密度、泥石流沟密度6个影响因子,以Arc GIS和IDRISI为平台,构建河西走廊山洪灾害危险度区划多准则决策支持模型,完成了河西走廊山洪灾害危险度区划图。结果表明:河西走廊山洪灾害危险度与6个危险因子是函数关系。其中,高程标准差、坡度和植被覆盖度与危险度呈多项式分布,降水、河网密度和泥石流沟密度则与危险度成正相关性;河西走廊山洪灾害极高度危险区460 km~2,占研究区总面积的3.12%;高度危险区1383.76 km~2,占研究区总面积的7.54%;中度危险区2166.85 km~2,占研究区总面积的11.26%;低度危险区154 787.63 km~2,占研究区总面积的65.01%;极低度危险区33 847.89 km~2,占研究区总面积的13.07%。     

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险

“一带一路”建设是中国在新时期推动国际合作共赢的倡议,旨在打造绿色、健康、智力、和平丝绸之路,保障“一带一路”沿线各国人民共同发展。系统分析“一带一路”沿线国家环境特征、演化趋势与未来风险格局,是“一带一路”建设的科学基础。应用遥感监测、统计资料,探究“一带一路”陆域气候、地形、土壤、水文、植被环境要素空间分布特征和时空差异;依据经典综合自然区划的方法论,将“一带一路”陆域划分为中东欧寒冷湿润区、蒙俄寒冷干旱区、中亚西亚干旱区、东南亚温暖湿润区、巴基斯坦干旱区、孟印缅温暖湿润区、中国东部季风区、中国西北干旱区和青藏高原区等9个区域。结合模型模拟、情景预估等技术手段,将自然灾害损失评估方法论用于预估未来30年高温热浪、干旱和洪涝等突发性极端事件的灾害风险,以趋势—基线对比方法预估宏观生态系统、粮食生产等渐变事件的风险。结果显示,亚欧大陆西部将是暖干趋势;青藏高原两侧区域高温热浪高风险;中东欧寒冷湿润区东部干旱高风险;孟印缅温暖湿润区和中国东部季风区洪涝高风险;荒漠边缘区域为生态脆弱高风险区;中低纬区域为粮食减产高风险区。     

不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价

为探讨不同重现期情景下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化,利用不同类型共20 种分布函数拟合得到最大日降水量结果,并将其作为致灾因子,结合其他11 种指标,定量化评价淮河流域不同重现期暴雨洪涝灾害风险。研究发现：① 淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害高风险区为流域中上游干流蓄洪区及周边地势低洼地,流域中部、西南部以及东部部分地区为中高风险区,低风险区分布于流域北部与中南部。② 随重现期增加（10a 一遇至1000a 一遇）,最大日降水量空间分布变化为流域东部整体危险性逐渐减弱,西南部高值区域增幅较大;而最终淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划变化则表现为中高风险区保持相对稳定;高风险区与低风险区逐渐缩小,占流域总面积分别由8.3%、42.4%减小至3.2%与30.8%,风险高值保持稳定但区域集中程度越来越明显;中风险区则由28.3%增加至40.9%;整体呈现“流域东部大灾减少、小灾不断,西部高值区遇水成灾,北部中南部相对安全”的空间分布变化格局。     

黄河小北干流洪水倒灌渭河风险评估及其影响

黄河洪水倒灌渭河的风险评估是渭河下游防洪工作的基础。通过历史资料对比和遥感影像分析,对渭河下游洪水倒灌风险度进行差值计算并划分风险等级,得到结论:①黄河洪水越大则倒灌并溯源淤积渭河的范围越大;②高风险区集中于大荔县东部和潼关、华阴、华县、渭南及临潼的渭河沿岸区域,较高风险区位于大荔县东北部和渭南、临潼交界处的渭河北岸区域;③河口西进与洪水倒灌互为因果,加剧"小流量、高水位、大灾情";④降低倒灌风险必须实现全流域综合规划、协调降低潼关高程。     

基于GIS的关中地区农业生产自然灾害风险综合评价研究

旱灾、洪灾等自然灾害对农业生产有重要影响,通过分析关中地区主要自然灾害类型,选择各类型灾害的主要影响因素,建立评价模型,对关中地区农业生产中可能遭受的自然灾害风险进行综合分析评价,结果表明:关中地区农业生产自然灾害综合风险总体较高,高、中、低级别风险区分别占研究区面积的28.2%、46.6%和25.2%,其中高风险区主要分布在凤县、太白县、麟游县以及陇县的北部地区,中风险区主要分布在台塬边缘区和低山地区,低风险区主要分布在关中盆地地区,从具体灾害类型上看,高风险区域主要面临地质灾害和水土流失的威胁,中风险区域主要灾害是水土流失和生态环境恶化,低风险区域则是干旱和洪涝灾害。     

中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区的生产潜力模拟（英文）

In this study, information is collected on the weather, soils, field management and agricultural statistics in the Bangladesh, India and Myanmar(BIM) region. Crop growth parameters within the EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model are calibrated using cultivar data and regional experimental records of indica hybrid rice Fyou498 and Fengliangyou4 in China. Potential yields of rice are then simulated in the BIM region from 1996 to 2005. The effects of local irrigation and fertilization levels on super hybrid rice yield are examined. The potential yields of Chinese hybrid rice at local irrigation and fertilization levels in 2000 and at full irrigation and rational fertilization levels are found to be 10.22 t/ha and 11.33 t/ha, respectively. The potential for increasing monsoon rice production in the study region is 227.71 million tons. The eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain in India, the southeast coast of India Peninsula and the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar have the largest potentials for monsoon rice production. The northeastern and southwestern areas of the Deccan Plateau and the northwestern region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain need to improve irrigation equipment to meet the water-use requirements of high-yield rice. The central and southern plains in Myanmar and northeastern India need greater access to nitrogen fertilization for high-yield rice.     

Simulating potential yields of Chinese super hybrid rice in Bangladesh,India and Myanmar with EPIC model

In this study, information is collected on the weather, soils, field management and agricultural statistics in the Bangladesh, India and Myanmar (BIM) region. Crop growth parameters within the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model are calibrated using cultivar data and regional experimental records of indica hybrid rice Fyou498 and Fengliangyou4 in China. Potential yields of rice are then simulated in the BIM region from 1996 to 2005. The effects of local irrigation and fertilization levels on super hybrid rice yield are examined. The potential yields of Chinese hybrid rice at local irrigation and fertilization levels in 2000 and at full irrigation and rational fertilization levels are found to be 10.22 t/ha and 11.33 t/ha, respectively. The potential for increasing monsoon rice production in the study region is 227.71 million tons. The eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain in India, the southeast coast of India Peninsula and the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar have the largest potentials for monsoon rice production. The northeastern and southwestern areas of the Deccan Plateau and the northwestern region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain need to improve irrigation equipment to meet the water-use requirements of high-yield rice. The central and southern plains in Myanmar and northeastern India need greater access to nitrogen fertilization for high-yield rice.     

GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.     

基于FloodArea模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估技术及效果检验北大核心CSCD

利用陕西气象站点逐小时降水实况、精细化格点预报、数字高程、土地利用、灾情等资料,应用水动力模型FloodArea对暴雨洪涝进行淹没模拟,在淹没水深和范围的基础上叠置承灾体属性,引入承灾体的灾损曲线,建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估模型,并从数量占比和灾情占比两个角度,以县为单元进行验证,利用格点降水量预报对陕西6次大范围暴雨过程灾害风险进行预评估以及效果检验。结果表明:暴雨洪涝气象风险预估结果与实际受灾地区分布基本吻合,正确预报率73.2%,模拟结果可信度高,对于降水区域集中暴雨的风险预评估性能较分散性暴雨较高,漏报率相对低,但是空报率较高;建立的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估及效果检验流程,提高了气象服务的针对性,可以用于洪涝风险预评估的实际业务中,对暴雨洪涝风险管理提供技术支撑。     

中南半岛旱季VIIRS活跃火的空间特征与国别差异

热带是全球活跃火(active fire)的集中发生区,客观认识其空间特征、国别差异及其动态变化对评估区域生物质燃烧及其碳排放等具有重要意义。作为热带季风气候典型区,中南半岛旱季活跃火发生发展空间特征及其动态变化仍缺乏清晰认识。为此,论文利用可见光红外成像辐射仪(VIIRS) S-NPP 2012—2019年活跃火矢量数据,基于核密度与空间自相关评价了中南半岛及国别旱季尤其是其特征月份(2—4月)活跃火发生发展的密集程度、集聚特征及其动态变化。结果表明：① 中南半岛活跃火核密度低值区占比最大(79%),高值区最小(4%);柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝等经济落后国家的核密度均值明显高于泰国和越南;2012—2019年核密度高值区具有朝高海拔、向内陆与趋边境等分布特征,且柬埔寨东北部长居高值区。② 活跃火核密度中值区变化集中在1—4月,且多分布在低、高值区周围;高值区变化集中在2—4月,由柬埔寨东北部逐渐向缅甸东/西部、泰国西北部以及老挝北/南部转移。③ 半岛与5国活跃火核密度在旱季具有显著空间正相关性,空间集聚类型以“高—高”型和“低—低”型集聚为主,越南、柬埔寨等国局部自相关性强于泰国和老挝。     

Modelling spatial distribution of critically endangered Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh forest ecosystems under a changing climate

The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and Hoolock gibbon (Hoolock hoolock) are two globally endangered wildlife species limited to only tropical Asian forests. In Bangladesh both species are critically endangered and distributed mainly in the northeast and southeast hilly regions bordering neighboring India and Myanmar. Using existing distribution data, land-use/land cover, elevation and bio-climatic variables, we modeled the likely distribution of Asian elephant and Hoolock gibbon in Bangladesh for 2050 and 2070. We used the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 and Maximum Entropy algorithm for our modelling. Our study indicated that the Asian elephant will be more resilient to climate change compared with the Hoolock gibbon. Habitat loss for the Asian elephant is also expected to remain constant (i.e. 38%) throughout the period, whilst Hoolock gibbon habitat will be more sensitive to climatic variations, with the species predicted to be extirpated from the country by 2070. Being highly exposed to climate change with ever increasing land use pressures, we believe our study in Bangladesh can be used to enhance our understanding of future vulnerabilities of wildlife in a rapidly changing climate. A trans-boundary conservation program with greater attention to the species that are less resilient to climate change is also essential.     

Spatio-temporal differences and factors influencing intensive cropland use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

This study developed a comprehensive system to evaluate the intensity of cropland use and evolution of cropland use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Delphi-entropy methods were adopted to determine the weight of the index, and the GeoDetector model was established to explore the influencing factors. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The intensity of inputs, degree of utilization, and production increased continuously, but the intensity of continuous conditions experienced an overall decline followed by a rebound towards the end of the study period. The number of counties with high and moderately high intensity increased by 56.8% and 14.6%, respectively, from 1996 to 2011. The number of counties with moderately low and low intensity declined by 35.9 % and 11.9 %, respectively. Areas with significant increases in intensity were mainly distributed in northeast Hebei Province, northwest Shandong Province, and north Jiangsu Province. The intensity is high in northern Jiangsu and Anhui; the output effect remained above moderate intensity mainly near Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, and counties in the suburbs of Shijiazhuang. (2) Natural disasters, elevation, slope, and road networks were the main factors influencing the intensity of cropland use in this region, with influence values of 0.158, 0.143, 0.129, and 0.054, respectively. Areas with moderately high and high levels of intensity were distributed in low-lying areas. Uneven distribution of precipitation, seasonal drought, and flood disasters can directly affect the stability index of croplands and reduce the intensity of cropland use. Developed road networks are associated with moderately high intensity. Our results suggest recommendations such as promoting agricultural intensification and large-scale management, promoting the construction of road networks, improving early warning systems for drought and flood disasters, and promoting moderate and intensive use of arable land, and focusing on restoration and sustainable use of cropland.     

Farmers&rsquo|vulnerability to flood risk: A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers’ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers’ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the “five rivers”.