夏季烟台—威海北部近海溶解氧浓度垂向分布的最小值

基于2020年夏季的大面航次观测数据,分析了烟台—威海北部海洋牧场及邻近海域海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布最小值（氧最小值层）的空间分布特征,并探讨了影响因素。从6月至8月,海水溶解氧浓度不断减小,垂向结构亦存在显著变化。海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布的最小值主要集中于7月的近岸海域,最小值大致从外海向近岸方向减小,其距离海底高度及与底层溶解氧浓度之差的绝对值均于双岛湾邻近海域为最大。海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布的最小值位于最强密度层结以下。但是海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布最小值的强度向北减小,而密度层结向北增大,两者的空间分布基本相反,说明密度层结抑制垂向湍流扩散可极大减少深层海水溶解氧的来源,是海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布最小值形成的必要条件,但不是主导因素。在海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布的最小值层,表观耗氧量存在垂向分布的最大值,大部分站点的pH存在垂向分布的最小值,说明局地增强、持续的生物地球化学耗氧是控制海水溶解氧浓度垂向分布最小值形成和空间分布的一个重要过程。研究结果表明氧最小值层是夏季烟台—威海北部近岸海水溶解氧垂向结构的典型特征之一。     

Effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on characteristics of the total ozone annual variation

The goal of the paper is an analysis of changes in the amplitude and phase characteristics of the annual variation (AC) of total ozone (TO) from ground-based and satellite (TOMS) measurements and their interpretation with a two-dimensional photochemical model. According to ground-based TO measurements, two characteristic types of quasi-decadal variations in the phase of the annual harmonic (AH) of total ozone have been noted: variations in phase and antiphase with solar activity (SA). Changes in the TO AH phase opposite to solar activity variation are noted the high latitudes of the North Atlantic region and in the tropical belt, and in-phase changes are observed in the middle and subtropical latitudes of both hemispheres. Variations in the TO AH amplitude (hence, in the TO AV amplitude) and in the annual mean TO usually coincide in phase with the SA cycle. Analysis of satellite data shows that the 0-phase of the AV and the phase of the AH of the zonal mean TO at middle latitudes vary synchronously with the 11-year solar cycle. Model simulations have shown that the stratospheric ozone influx to the middle latitudes increases in the fall and winter period during a period of maximum solar activity. This dynamic mechanism accounts for up to 30% of the winter ozone increase in the ozone maximum layer in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes during the solar maximum as compared with the solar minimum. In the northern midlatitudes, the dynamic mechanism makes the main contribution to ozone changes during the latter half of winter under SA variations. The stratospheric ozone inflow change induced by SA variations affects the annual variation of ozone.     

Quasi-decadal variations in total ozone content,wind velocity,temperature, and geopotential height over the Arosa station (Switzerland)

We present the results of the analysis of the phase relationships between the quasi-decadal variations (QDVs) (in the range from 8 to 13 years) in the total ozone content (TOC) at the Arosa station for 1932–2012 and a number of meteorological parameters: monthly mean values of temperature, meridional and zonal components of wind velocity, and geopotential heights for isobaric surfaces in the layer of 10–925 hPa over the Arosa station using the Fourier methods and composite and cross-wavelet analysis. It has been shown that the phase relationships of the QDVs in the TOC and meteorological parameters with an 11-year cycle of solar activity change in time and height; starting with cycle 24 of solar activity (2008–2010), the variations in the TOC and a number of meteorological parameters occur in almost counter phase with the variations in solar activity. The periods of the maximum growth rate of the temperature at isobaric surfaces 50–100 hPa nearly correspond to the TOC’s maximum periods, and the periods of the maximum temperature correspond the periods of the decrease of the peak TOC rate. The highest correlation coefficients between the meridional wind velocity and temperature are observed at 50 hPa at positive and negative delays of ~27 months. The times of the maxima (minima) of the QDVs in the meridional wind velocity nearly correspond to the periods of the maximum amplification (attenuation) rate of the temperature of the QDVs. The QDVs in the geopotential heights of isobaric surfaces fall behind the variations in the TOC by an average of 1.5 years everywhere except in the lower troposphere. In general, the periods of variations in the TOC and meteorological parameters in the range of 8–13 years are smaller than the period of variations in the level of solar activity.     

Diagnostics of a cause-effect relation between solar activity and the Earth’s global surface temperature

The influence of solar activity on the Earth’s global surface temperature (GST) was quantified. The method for estimation of the Granger causality was used, with analysis of the improvement of the prediction of one process by using data from another process as compared to autoprediction. Two versions of reconstructions of the solar flux variations associated with solar activity were used, according to Hoyt et al. [1997] for 1680–1992 (data H) and according to Lean et al. [2005] for 1610–2005 (data L). In general, the estimation results for the two reconstructions are reasonably well consistent. A significant influence of solar activity on GST with a positive sign was found for two periods, from the late 19th century to the late 1930s and from the latter half of the 1940s to the early 1990s, with no inertia or time delay. In these periods, up to 8 and 25% of the variance of the GST change, respectively, can be attributed to solar activity variations. The solar influence increased in the 1980s to the early 1990s according to data H and began to decrease in the latter half of the 1980s according to data L.     

2008/2009年冬季南海冷涌天气过程的海-气热通量交换及热量收支

冬季风期(11月—翌年3月)南海显著的气候特点是盛行东北季风并频繁地发生冷涌天气过程。使用2008年10月到2009年4月在西沙群岛永兴岛近海进行的海-气通量观测试验资料,分析了西沙海域冬季风期,尤其是冷涌时段的海-气通量交换和热量收支特征。结果表明:冬季风前期由于海-气温差增大,感热通量比西南季风期稍增加;潜热通量平均值与西南季风期接近;太阳总辐射明显降低,大气长波辐射减小,海洋热量净收入成为负值,使得秋季之后海面温度不断降低。冷涌期间海-气之间的感热通量高于冬季风期平均值,潜热通量大部分(1月份之前)也高于冬季风期平均值;由于潜热通量增大和太阳短波辐射减小,1月份之前的冷涌过程海洋热量净收支普遍出现较大负值,海洋失热量强于冬季风期,甚至强于2008年台风过程平均值。到了冬季后期太阳总辐射增强,海洋热量净收入转为正值,海水温度又逐渐升高。季节之间比较,观测区感热通量以冬季风期间最大,秋季次之,春季最小;而潜热通量夏季风期出现最大值,冬季次之,秋季最小。     

Variations of the oxygen minimum zone of the Okhotsk Sea during the last 50 ka as indicated by benthic foraminiferal and biogeochemical data

Benthic foraminiferal and sediment biogeochemical data (total organic carbon, calcium carbonate and biogenic opal contents) in two cores (1265 and 1312 m water depths) from the southeastern Sakhalin slope and one core (839 m water depth) from the southwestern Kamchatka slope were investigated to reconstruct variations of the oxygen minimum zone during the last 50 ka in the Okhotsk Sea. The oxygen minimum zone was less pronounced during cooling in the MIS 2 that is suggested to be caused by a maximal expansion of sea ice cover, decrease of marine productivity and increase of production of the oxygenated Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water (OSIW). A two-step-like strengthening of oxygen minimum zone during the warmings in the Termination 1a and 1b was linked to (1) enhanced oxygen consumption due to degradation of large amount of organic matter in the water column and bottom sediments, originated from increased marine productivity and supply of terrigenous material from the submerged northern shelves; (2) sea ice cover retreat and reduction of OSIW production; (3) freely inflow of the oxygen-depleted intermediate water mass from the North Pacific.     

Carbon and nitrogen isotope excursions in mid-Pleistocene sapropels from the Tyrrhenian Basin: Evidence for climate-induced increases in microbial primary production

The modern Mediterranean Sea is oligotrophic, yet its sediment record contains layers of organic-carbon-rich sapropels at 21 ky (precessional) spacing that imply periods of elevated paleoproductivity that approached the high productivities of modern upwelling systems. Resolution to this paradox is provided by lines of evidence suggesting that the mode of primary productivity changed from one dominated by algae to one during times of sapropel deposition in which photosynthetic bacteria were important. We have made a high-resolution comparison of the organic carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of three sapropels and their background sediments in a 3-m sequence that corresponds to 1001 to 946 ka. Organic δ¹³C values systematically increase from − 26‰ to − 21‰ and δ¹⁵N values systematically decrease from 4‰ to < 0‰ as organic carbon mass accumulation rates increase in the sapropel layers. The increase in carbon isotope values mirrors the increases in primary productivity and associated organic matter export indicated by the increased mass accumulation rates. The decrease in nitrogen isotope values implies major contributions of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria to the total marine productivity. The precessional minima with which sapropels coincide were times of wetter climate that stratified the surface Mediterranean Sea, increased delivery of soil-derived phosphorus, and evidently amplified microbial primary production. Our high-resolution study reveals several relatively rapid excursions into and out of the high-productivity mode that suggest that sapropel deposition was a climate-sensitive surface-driven phenomenon that was not accompanied by basin-wide stagnation.     

青藏高原地区近千年气候变化的时空特征

研究青藏高原地区过去千年气候变化的时空特征,对预测未来气候情景下该地区冰冻圈的变化及其水文-生态效应具有重要科学意义。基于15条反映青藏高原地区近千年气候变化的高分辨率重建序列,通过综合分析及经验正交函数(EOF)方法,进一步探讨了青藏高原地区过去千年气候变化的时空特征。综合重建序列显示:整体而言,青藏高原地区中世纪暖期(MWP)约持续到1450s,小冰期(LIA)约发生于1450—1870s,此后近百年来的温度在波动中逐渐升高;对比分析表明青藏高原地区MWP与20世纪前半叶的温暖幅度可比、也与其他北半球温度序列中同时期的气候特征相似,LIA较之我国中东部地区相对温暖。EOF分析结果揭示了过去千年典型气候特征(MWP、LIA及20世纪暖期等)在青藏高原的区域差异:对于MWP,其在高原东北部、中北部及西部地区约持续至1450s(其中约1250—1300s为冷波动),在喀喇昆仑及高原中东部地区约至13世纪初,高原南部诸多代用资料间接表明MWP约发生于11—15世纪(而在反映高原南部地区气候信息的第三主分量中MWP特征并不明显);对于LIA,高原东北部及西部地区的冷波动约为1450—1520s、1650—1750s、1780—1850s,喀喇昆仑地区的冷波动约为1450—1650s、1740—1780s、1820—1850s,高原南部、中东部及中北部地区的冷波动约为1580—1650s、1740—1780s(其中1670—1730s为相对暖期,并在喀喇昆仑地区也有所体现);对于近百年的全球显著升温过程,高原大部分地区均有记录,而南部与中东部地区的部分树轮年表则显示近几十年来夏季温度存在一定的下降趋势,这可能与全球变暖过程中不同季节(冬夏季节)温度变化的不一致性有关。     

The seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Phytoplankton standing stocks and carbon assimilation were measured during four cruises to the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica during 1996 and 1997 in order to assess the details of the seasonal cycle of biomass and productivity. The seasonal composite showed that phytoplankton biomass increased rapidly during the austral spring, and integrated chlorophyll reached a maximum during the summer (January 15) and decreased thereafter. Particulate matter ratios (carbon:nitrogen, carbon:chlorophyll) also showed distinct seasonal trends with summer minima. Carbon assimilation increased rapidly in the spring, and reached a maximum of 231 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹, ca. four weeks earlier than the maximum observed biomass (during early December). It decreased rapidly thereafter, and in austral autumn when ice formed, it approached zero. The time of maximum growth rate coincided with the maximum in C-assimilation, and at 0.66 d⁻¹ equaled predictions based on laboratory cultures. Growth rates over the entire growing season, however, were generally much less. Deck-board incubations suggested that photoinhibition occurred at the greatest photon flux densities, but in situ incubations revealed no such surface inhibition. We suggest that due to the nature of the irradiance field in the Antarctic, assemblages maintained in on-deck incubators received more light than those in situ, which resulted in photoinhibition. This in turn resulted in a 17% underestimate in on-deck productivity relative to in situ determinations. The phytoplankton bloom appeared to be initiated when vertical stability was imparted in austral spring, coincident with greater daily photon flux densities. Conversely, decreased productivity likely resulted from trace metal limitation, whereas biomass declines likely resulted from enhanced loss rates, such as aggregate formation and enhanced vertical flux of larger particles. The seasonal progression of productivity and biomass in the southern Ross Sea was similar to other areas in the ocean that experience blooms, and the cycling of carbon in this region is extensive, despite the fact that the growing season extends no more than five months.     

Connection between the Intellectual Excitability of Internet Users and Increases in Solar Activity

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The assertion that social upheaval tends to coincide with peaks of solar activity is the main result of A.L. Chizhevskii’s first famous work,...     

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20–30% larger (i.e., around 60–70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.     

Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas

It is not clear whether global warming will favour or reduce global ocean phytoplankton productivity in coastal areas. Moreover, the relative contributions made by natural and/or anthropogenic factors to possible changes in phytoplankton productivity are not clear. As the relationship between primary production and alongshore wind forcing is well established for the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems, our aim is to determine whether the changes experienced over the last five decades (1958–2007) in atmospheric CO₂ and solar activity have been able to affect the wind regime and water column stability in the most biologically productive upwelling areas of California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela. We approached the work by statistically studying the effect of solar activity and atmospheric CO₂ on surface alongshore wind stress and on water column stability. There was an increasing trend in wind stress and water column stability in all the upwelling areas over the period studied (with the single exception of stability in the California EBC system). The analysis of detrended series evidenced significant relationships between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and wind stress and water column stability in the coastal upwelling areas investigated. In addition, wind stress and stability data were found to be consistent, with negative linear relationships between wind stress and CO₂ in most of the sites in the Benguela, Canary and Humboldt regions associated, as expected, to positive relationships when water column stability is used as regressand. The results of the present study suggest that greenhouse gas forcing, independent of its well known general increasing trend, was able to decrease wind stress intensity and increase water column stability for the period 1958 to present in most of the sites of the four Eastern Boundary Ecosystems studied, with the one exception of the California region. Conversely, the impact of solar activity appeared to be quite low compared to the greenhouse gas forcing.     

Interaction of the reasons for the mass biota extinctions in the Phanerozoic

The consideration of the conditions during the mass extinctions has shown that a series of factors, including mutually independent tectonic movements, variations in the sea level and climate, volcanism, asteroid impacts, changes in the composition of the atmosphere and hydrosphere, the dimming of the atmosphere by aerosols at volcanism and impact events, etc., had a harmful affect during some periods of time (a hundred thousand years to millions of years). Some of the listed events occurred for a long period of time and could not have caused the abrupt catastrophic death of organisms on a global scale. The examination of the hierarchy of the major events allows us to distinguish the primary terrestrial (volcanism) and cosmic (impact events) reasons for the mass extinctions. The coeval mutually independent events testify to the common external reasons for the higher order beyond the solar system. These events are suggested to be related with the orbital movement of the solar system around the galaxy’s center, the intersection of the galactic branches, and the oscillations of the solar system’s position relative to the galactic plane. These reasons influence the processes on the Earth, including the internal and external geospheres, and activate the impacts of asteroids and comets. Under their effect, two main subsequences of events are developed: terrestrial, leading to intense volcanism, and cosmic impact events. In both cases, harmful chemical elements and aerosols are vented to the atmosphere, thus resulting in the greenhouse effect, warming, the dimming of the atmosphere, the prevention of photosynthesis, the ocean’s stagnation, and anoxia with the following reduction of the bioproductivity, the destruction of the food chains, and the extinction of a significant part of the biota.     

Effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation in the total ozone content over Russia

On the basis of ground-based measurements of total ozone content (TOC) over Russia and a number of neighboring states during 1973–2002, the amplitudes and phases of TOC variations caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of wind in the equatorial stratosphere are estimated for different regions and for the whole area. The seasonal dependence of the QBO effect in the TOC is analyzed. It is shown that the magnitude and even the sign of the effect depend on the relation between the equatorial QBO phase and the season. The regional empirical models of seasonally dependent QBO effects are constructed. It is found that the seasonal dependence of regional effects accounts for 4% (in the north of the area) to 20% (in the south) of the interannual variability of the TOC. The relation between the QBO effect and the 11-year cycle of solar activity is analyzed. Significant differences are revealed in the effects under the conditions of maximum and minimum solar activity. The QBO effects obtained from observations at Russian stations, satellite measurements with a TOMS instrument, and spectrometric observations of the TOC at western European stations are compared, and their satisfactory agreement is shown. An analysis of the results suggests that the QBO effects in the TOC over Russia are caused by several interacting factors and apparently reflect their regional properties.     

Solar wind density variations and the development of heliobiological effects during magnetic storms

The hypothesis is discussed that the response of biological systems recorded a day before the beginning of a geomagnetic disturbance may be due to magnetospheric processes induced by a sharp increase in solar wind (SW) density. It is shown that an increase in SW density near the magnetosphere one day before the beginning of the increase in the K _p index is a quite typical situation, particularly in years of sunspot minimum with the main contribution of gradually developing storms formed by SW high-speed streams from coronal holes. An increase in SW density results in an increase in the dynamic pressure on the magnetosphere, its restructuring, and a change in the geometry and quality factor of an ionospheric duct. As a consequence, the parameters of Schumann resonances change, Pc1 pulsations are generated, and infrasound generation is intensified. All these processes are discussed in the literature as affecting the biological systems. Thus, it is reasonable to consider just the moment of SW density increase as the beginning of magnetosphere changes with biotropic effect.     

过去100年来闽浙泥质区浮游植物生产力和群落结构在上升流和人类活动影响下的变化

Phytoplankton productivity and community structure in marginal seas have been altered significantly during the past three decades, but it is still a challenge to distinguish the forcing mechanisms between climate change and anthropogenic activities. High time-resolution biomarker records of two 210Pb-dated sediment cores(#34: 28.5°N, 122.272°E; CJ12-1269: 28.861 9°N, 122.515 3°E) from the Min-Zhe coastal mud area were compared to reveal changes of phytoplankton productivity and community structure over the past 100 years. Phytoplankton productivity started to increase gradually from the 1970 s and increased rapidly after the late 1990 s at Site #34; and it started to increase gradually from the middle 1960 s and increased rapidly after the late 1980 s at Site CJ12-1269. Productivity of Core CJ12-1269 was higher than that of Core #34. Phytoplankton community structure variations displayed opposite patterns in the two cores. The decreasing D/B(dinosterol/brassicasterol) ratio of Core #34 since the 1960 s revealed increased diatom contribution to total productivity. In contrast, the increasing D/B ratio of Core CJ12-1269 since the 1950 s indicated increased dinoflagellate contribution to total productivity. Both the productivity increase and the increased dinoflagellate contribution in Core CJ12-1269 since the 1950–1960s were mainly caused by anthropogenic activities, as the location was closer to the Changjiang River Estuary with higher nutrient concentration and decreasing Si/N ratios. However, increased diatom contribution in Core #34 is proposed to be caused by increased coastal upwelling, with higher nutrient concentration and higher Si/N ratios.     

Changes in the climate and sea ice of the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th and 21st centuries from data of observations and modeling

The shrinking of the area occupied by sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere accelerated at the end of the 1990s, when the record minima of the summer area were successively noted, and its absolute minimum was observed in September 2007. Such a radical decrease is ahead of the projections of global models and provokes interest in the reliability of model calculations of the future of Arctic sea ice. The results of an analysis of the relation between the warming in the Arctic and the ice extent shrinkage from data of observations and modeling by an ensemble of global climate models are presented.     

Multiple late Quaternary episodes of exceptional diatom production in the Gulf of Alaska

Hole 887B of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) comprises a 44 m (750 kyr) long continuous section recovered from the Patton–Murray Rise, an elevated plateau that is largely isolated from turbidite deposition. The Patton–Murray area is centered under the Alaska Gyre, a region characterized by the domal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters. Marked increases in productivity and rapid settling of biogenic matter are suggested throughout the section by the episodic accumulation of diatomaceous oozes up to ∼1 m thick that are accompanied by barium enrichments. Significant δ¹³C_org maxima in the major diatomaceous bands suggest that mixed-layer [CO_2(aq)] may have been drawn down significantly during some of the productivity events. The episodes of enhanced productivity at Site 887 occur synchronously with short-lived minima in planktonic foram δ¹⁸O, suggesting a direct link to low salinity, or less likely, warming, events in the Gulf of Alaska. There is no obvious explanation for the events, but they may be related to seasonal incursions of meltwater from Alaska. We speculate that episodic input of meltwater- or dust-borne iron from Asian or Alaskan sources may have promoted the extraordinary diatom production events recorded in the sedimentary record.     

海洋产业结构升级对海洋全要素生产率影响的实证研究

文章基于2000—2019年中国11个沿海省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,实证分析了海洋产业结构升级对海洋全要素生产率的影响,并以海洋产业结构升级作为门槛变量,进一步研究海洋产业结构升级对海洋全要素生产率的非线性影响。结果说明,海洋产业结构升级对海洋全要素生产率有显著的正向作用;海洋产业结构升级在推动海洋全要素生产率提高的过程中存在一重门槛,随着海洋产业结构升级越过一重门槛,海洋产业结构升级对海洋全要素生产率的推动作用逐渐增大。根据研究结论,未来应加速推进涉海产业转型,鼓励海洋新兴产业发展,同时结合我国海洋产业发展现状,针对不同产业制定具体的对策。     

末次冰消期以来苏拉威西海颗石藻化石记录与古海洋变化

通过对苏拉威西海MD98-2178柱状样(3.62°N、118.70°E)颗石藻化石属种相对含量的统计,重建了2万年来海水古生产力、营养跃层的变化。其中Emiliania huxleyi、Gephyrocapsa oceanica、Florisphaera profunda占颗石藻群落的80%～90%。由于G.oceanica与F.profunda存在于两种完全不同的生态环境中,两者的变化趋势完全相反。前者代表高生产力以及高营养物质的海水,后者则代表低生产力与较深的营养跃层。推测冰消期颗石藻对环境变化具有两种响应模式:以约13.5ka的生产力峰值期为界,13.5ka之前颗石藻古生产力变化主要响应于径流对海洋营养物质的输入,而13.5ka之后则主要响应于海水-大气之间水循环的强度。全新世F.produnda含量及其所反映的营养跃层变化具有明显的百年尺度波动,与太阳活动的100～260a周期具有良好的相关性。推测全新世苏拉威西海区营养跃层变化受百年尺度的类似厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino-Southern Osillation,ENSO)的变化及太阳活动的驱动。