Effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on characteristics of the total ozone annual variation

The goal of the paper is an analysis of changes in the amplitude and phase characteristics of the annual variation (AC) of total ozone (TO) from ground-based and satellite (TOMS) measurements and their interpretation with a two-dimensional photochemical model. According to ground-based TO measurements, two characteristic types of quasi-decadal variations in the phase of the annual harmonic (AH) of total ozone have been noted: variations in phase and antiphase with solar activity (SA). Changes in the TO AH phase opposite to solar activity variation are noted the high latitudes of the North Atlantic region and in the tropical belt, and in-phase changes are observed in the middle and subtropical latitudes of both hemispheres. Variations in the TO AH amplitude (hence, in the TO AV amplitude) and in the annual mean TO usually coincide in phase with the SA cycle. Analysis of satellite data shows that the 0-phase of the AV and the phase of the AH of the zonal mean TO at middle latitudes vary synchronously with the 11-year solar cycle. Model simulations have shown that the stratospheric ozone influx to the middle latitudes increases in the fall and winter period during a period of maximum solar activity. This dynamic mechanism accounts for up to 30% of the winter ozone increase in the ozone maximum layer in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes during the solar maximum as compared with the solar minimum. In the northern midlatitudes, the dynamic mechanism makes the main contribution to ozone changes during the latter half of winter under SA variations. The stratospheric ozone inflow change induced by SA variations affects the annual variation of ozone.     

Predicting the main parameters of solar cycle 24 by the number of spotless days in the previous minimum

An attempt was made to connect the number of spotless days in previous minimums of solar cycles with the main characteristics of the following cycles: height, total length, and length of the rise branch. According to the value of the sum of spotless days in the minimum of cycle 23 ΣDT0 = 800 (July 2010), the following characteristics of cycle 24 were obtained: the beginning is 2009.0 (January 2009), the length of the rise branch RW = 4.8 years, the date of the maximum is 2013.8 (October 2013), Wolf’s number in the maximum WM= 63, the length of the decline branch DW = 7.8 years, the total length DTmm = 12.6 years, and the end is 2021.6 (July 2021).     

基于Aquarius 卫星数据的孟加拉湾海表盐度分析

海洋表面盐度(Sea Surface Salinity,SSS)是海洋的重要物理和化学参量,SSS的时空分布与全球大洋环流和水汽循环密切相关。本文基于美国国家航空航天局(NASA)发射的Aquarius卫星3 a的SSS遥感数据,给出了孟加拉湾及其附近海域海表盐度的空间分布特征,并重点分析了影响孟加拉湾海表盐度变化的可能因素。研究结果从一个侧面说明了利用Aquarius卫星遥感观测海洋大尺度盐度变化的可行性。     

Quasi-decadal variations in total ozone content,wind velocity,temperature, and geopotential height over the Arosa station (Switzerland)

We present the results of the analysis of the phase relationships between the quasi-decadal variations (QDVs) (in the range from 8 to 13 years) in the total ozone content (TOC) at the Arosa station for 1932–2012 and a number of meteorological parameters: monthly mean values of temperature, meridional and zonal components of wind velocity, and geopotential heights for isobaric surfaces in the layer of 10–925 hPa over the Arosa station using the Fourier methods and composite and cross-wavelet analysis. It has been shown that the phase relationships of the QDVs in the TOC and meteorological parameters with an 11-year cycle of solar activity change in time and height; starting with cycle 24 of solar activity (2008–2010), the variations in the TOC and a number of meteorological parameters occur in almost counter phase with the variations in solar activity. The periods of the maximum growth rate of the temperature at isobaric surfaces 50–100 hPa nearly correspond to the TOC’s maximum periods, and the periods of the maximum temperature correspond the periods of the decrease of the peak TOC rate. The highest correlation coefficients between the meridional wind velocity and temperature are observed at 50 hPa at positive and negative delays of ~27 months. The times of the maxima (minima) of the QDVs in the meridional wind velocity nearly correspond to the periods of the maximum amplification (attenuation) rate of the temperature of the QDVs. The QDVs in the geopotential heights of isobaric surfaces fall behind the variations in the TOC by an average of 1.5 years everywhere except in the lower troposphere. In general, the periods of variations in the TOC and meteorological parameters in the range of 8–13 years are smaller than the period of variations in the level of solar activity.     

Separation of ocean features from multifrequency full-polarization SAR imagery

Different ocean features usually appear in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images simultaneously. This makes the image compli- cated and hard to understand. Because of lower signal-to-noise rate , it is much more difficult to separate different ocean features than to separate different land features. A completely novel method is presented to separate ocean features from multifrequency po- larimetric SAR imagery. AIRSAR data from Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are used in the case studies and good results are achieved.     

西威佛斯海洋水色研究计划概述

１９９５年春，美国国家宇航局（ＮＡＳＡ）将发射一颗携带宽视场海洋观测传感器（ＳｅａＷｉＦＳ）的海洋卫星（Ｓｅａｓｔａｒ）．宽视场海洋观测传感器是继工作了七年多，于１９８５年停止发送资料的Ｎｉｍｂｕｓ－７海岸带水色扫描仪（ＣＺＺ）之后的第一个星载海洋水色传感器，不像作为概念验证性实验的海岸带水色扫描仪那样，宽视场海洋观测传感器被设计用来提供充分精确的光合色素浓度资料以进行海洋初级生产力和生物地球化学定量研究［４］。宽视场海洋观测传感器将常规地每二日一次提供全球复盖资料。美国国家宇航局空间科学应用署（ＡＳＳＡ）和哥达德空间飞行中心（ＧＳＦＣ）为了发展、管理海洋水色研究资料系统而制定了宽视场海洋观测传感器计划，这个系统能有效地收集、处理、校正、检验、存档以及发布由宽视场海洋观测传感器接收到的资料。本文主要介绍了宽视场海洋观测传感器计划的目的意义，研究内容以及其他概况［２，３］。     

任意截面直渠中先锋孤立子生成问题中的生成周期和振幅(英文)

借助任意截面直渠中的ｆＫｄＶ方程,理论上确定了先锋孤立子生成的平均特性。基于任意截面直渠中的ＡｆＫｄＶ方程,求得了先锋孤立子生成问题中的理论生成振幅和周期。作为例子,文中预报和比较了正方形和等腰三角形断面直渠中的生成周期和振幅。并且,理论研究也证实,对于正方形渠,当渠宽ｂ＝１时,所得的结果可退化为Ｘｕ［１］等人的结果。     

基于鲁棒光流算法的海表流场遥感观测研究

海洋表面流场是海洋科学研究中需要着重考虑的环境参数,近实时的海洋表面流场精细化测量对海洋学研究有着重要意义,但是目前大多数海洋表面流场观测技术难以同步实现大范围近实时的海洋表面流场观测。文中在简要对比各类海洋表面流场测量方法的基础上,重点介绍了基于水色遥感图像观测反演海洋表面流场的鲁棒光流算法,该算法在流场计算过程中,能很好地保留流场细节信息。为直观验证本文测量方法的可靠性,文中提供了海洋表面流场的分析实例,同时给出了美国国家航空航天局(NASA)提供的OSCAR流场数据,对文中算法的可靠性进行了验证。     

Predicting the effects of shade on water temperature in small streams

A computer model for stream water temperature was developed, and tested in a small pasture stream near Hamilton, New Zealand. The model quantifies shading by riparian vegetation, hillsides, and stream banks using three coefficients: canopy angle, topography angle, and canopy shade factor. Shade was measured directly and found to vary significantly along the channel. Using the maximum measured shade, a close match was achieved between observed and predicted daily maximum and minimum water and bed sediment temperature. Model predictions of incoming and outgoing long‐wave radiation flux closely matched measurements, but there were unexplained discrepancies in short‐wave radiation flux. Model predictions indicate that moderate shade levels (c. 70%) may be sufficient in temperate climates to restore headwater pasture stream temperatures to 20°C, an estimate of the thermal tolerance for sensitive invertebrates.     

Prediction of time series by the method of analogs

We consider an algorithm of prediction of nonstationary time series based on the method of analogs. Since the exhaustion of a great number of versions is required for the adjustment of the parameters of the optimal prognostic model, we describe a genetic algorithm used in this case. We consider several procedures of construction of prognostic models. The numerical results are used to choose the procedure guaranteeing the minimum mean square error. The parameters of the model affecting the quality of predictions are determined. The proposed method is tested by using the reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR project) on the anomalies of the monthly average surface air temperature for 58 yr. The results of predictions are compared with the estimates obtained by the linear regression method. It is shown that the method of analogs gives satisfactory results even in the cases where the regression methods lead to errors equal to the variance of predicted series. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 70–80, July–August, 2007.     

GFDL模式对太平洋海表面温度的年际和年代际变率的模拟评估

为评估美国地球物理流体动力学实验室(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,GFDL)模式CM3、ESM2M和ESM2G对太平洋海表面温度的年际和年代际变率的模拟能力,本文利用GFDL历史试验模拟结果和美国海洋大气局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)提供的扩展重建的海表温度(Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature,ERSST)资料,比较模式模拟和观测的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)的时空分布、周期及可预报性等。结果表明:三个模式均可以较好地模拟太平洋主要年际信号ENSO和年代际信号PDO,ESM2G对ENSO的模拟最好,CM3对PDO的模拟与观测更为接近。研究结果为进一步利用模式探讨ENSO和PDO的物理机制提供可能的参考。     

Spatiotemporal distributions of tsunami sources and discovered periodicities

Both spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of the sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes of tectonic origin over the last 112 years have been analyzed. This analysis has been made using tsunami databases published by the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States), as well as earthquake catalogs published by the National Earthquake Information Center (United States). It has been found that the pronounced activation of seismic processes and an increase in the total energy of tsunamigenic earthquakes were observed at the beginning of both the 20th (1905–1920) and 21st (2004–2011) centuries. Studying the spatiotemporal periodicity of such events on the basis of an analysis of the two-dimensional distributions of the sources of tectonic tsunamis has made it possible to determine localized latitudinal zones with a total lack of such events (90°?75° N, 45°–90° S, and 35°?25° N) and regions with a periodic occurrence of tsunamis mainly within the middle (65°?35° N and 25°–40° S) and subequatorial (15° N–20° S) latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The objective of this work is to analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes and the effect of the periodic occurrence of such events on the basis of data taken from global tsunami catalogs.     

Predicting Seabed Burial of Cylinders by Wave-Induced Scour: Application to the Sandy Inner Shelf Off Florida and Massachusetts

A simple parameterized model for wave-induced burial of mine-like cylinders as a function of grain-size, time-varying, wave orbital velocity and mine diameter was implemented and assessed against results from inert instrumented mines placed off the Indian Rocks Beach (IRB, FL), and off the Martha's vineyard coastal observatory (MVCO, Edgartown, MA). The steady flow scour parameters provided by Whitehouse (1998) for self-settling cylinders worked well for predicting burial by depth below the ambient seabed for (0.5 m) diameter mines in fine sand at both sites. By including or excluding scour pit infilling, a range of percent burial by surface area was predicted that was also consistent with observations. Rapid scour pit infilling was often seen at MVCO but never at IRB, suggesting that the environmental presence of fine sediment plays a key role in promoting infilling. Overprediction of mine scour in coarse sand was corrected by assuming a mine within a field of large ripples buries only until it generates no more turbulence than that produced by surrounding bedforms. The feasibility of using a regional wave model to predict mine burial in both hindcast and real-time forecast mode was tested using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, Washington, DC) WaveWatch 3 (WW3) model. Hindcast waves were adequate for useful operational forcing of mine burial predictions, but five-day wave forecasts introduced large errors. This investigation was part of a larger effort to develop simple yet reliable predictions of mine burial suitable for addressing the operational needs of the U.S. Navy.     

On the influence of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on quasi-biennial variations in ozone and temperature in the Canadian sector of the arctic

An analysis of the high-latitude ozone balloon sounding data derived from Canadian stations shows that, in the maximum of the 11-year cycle of solar activity (SA), the ozone content in the lower stratosphere is higher than in the SA minimum and, in the SA maximum, the lower stratosphere is warmer and the troposphere is colder than in the SA minimum. The ozone and temperature responses to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the opposite phases of the 11-year cycle of SA show substantial differences: in the SA maximum, the QBO effects in the ozone and temperature cover a wider range of heights, the maxima of the effects manifest themselves at 5–10 km higher, and their amplitudes exceed the amplitudes of the effects in the SA minimum. The results indicate that the QBO is one of the “conductors” of the influence of the 11-year SA cycle in the Canadian sector of the Arctic.     

东亚及西太平洋地表温度时空模态分析及预测研究

地表温度(land surface temperature, LST)是地球表面(海洋和陆地)水循环和大气环境互通的重要参数,也是海、陆能量传输的重要体现。本文利用2003—2020年卫星反演的LST数据,通过M-K(Mann-Kendall)突变检验、线性回归、经验正交分解(empirical orthogonal function, EOF)等方法分析LST时空模态特征,并运用季节自回归移动平均(seasonal autoregression integrated moving average, SARIMA)模型预测LST的变化趋势。发现春、秋、冬三季沿海温度高,内陆温度低,由南向北(10°N—60°N),由东向西(70°E—140°E)递减;而夏季相反。EOF第一模态贡献率为29.58%,空间分布以昆仑山脉、秦岭为分界线。预计2020年以后, LST的变化范围在–5～35℃。结果表明:(1)由于纬度的增加及海陆位置的差异,导致日本的LST幅度小,蒙古国的LST幅度大,其余地区变化幅度平稳;(2)春、秋季温差不大,夏、冬季温差大,主要原因是太阳辐射;其次,季风气候显著。内陆高山多...     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

Sand ripples generated by regular oscillatory flow

The prediction of ripple geometry is a necessary precursor to the prediction of sand transport under waves for ripple regime conditions. The paper begins with a comparison of four existing methods for predicting the geometry of sand ripples generated by oscillatory flow. The comparison points to substantial differences between ripple dimensions predicted by the methods, especially for field-scale conditions. Ripple geometry experiments carried out in a large oscillatory flow tunnel are then described. The experiments involved a range of sand sizes and sinusoidal and asymmetric flows with periods and velocities typical of field conditions. Comparison of measured and predicted ripple geometries leads to the recommendation that the method of Mogridge, Davies and Willis be used to predict ripple geometry for field-scale oscillatory flows. The Nielsen method yields good predictions of ripple length, but the rapid fall-off in ripple steepness predicted by the Nielsen method at high mobility number is not supported by the measurements. The lengths and heights of symmetric ripples produced by sinusoidal flows are found to be similar to the lengths and heights of asymmetric ripples produced by “equivalent” asymmetric flows. Three-dimensional ripples occur with fine sand in long-period flows typical of field conditions. The dimensions of these ripples cannot be predicted using methods developed for two-dimensional ripples. Previously suggested criteria for predicting the occurrence of three-dimensional ripples fail when tested against a wide range of flow and sand conditions. The occurrence of three-dimensional ripples and the effects of ripple and flow history on ripple geometry require further research.     

Characteristics of variations of water properties and density structure around the Kuroshio in the East China Sea

Quarterly data of CTD at the PN line in the East China Sea during 1988–94 were analyzed to examine the variations of water properties and density structure in relation to the Kuroshio. The Kuroshio flows over the continental slope at the PN line. Water properties in the surface layer less than 100 db change greatly and show a clear seasonal cycle, while those in the subsurface layer are much less variable. The small isobaric variations in the subsurface layer are almost due to the vertical movement of isopycnals, on which the water properties vary little. The subsurface variations of salinity, temperature and isopycnal depth are classified into four groups occurring in the four regions, divided vertically by the middle of the main pycnocline and horizontally by the offshore edge of the Kuroshio, named Groups 1 (upper Kuroshio), 2 (upper offshore region), 3 (lower Kuroshio), and 4 (lower offshore region). The difference in averaged isopycnal depth between Groups 1 and 2 (3 and 4) is highly correlated with the vertical shear of the Kuroshio velocity in the upper (lower) pycnocline. The isopycnal depth of Groups 1 and 3 has little annual cycle (with large intraseasonal variations in Group 3), while that of Groups 2 and 4 shows a clear seasonal variation with the minimum in fall. As a result, the Kuroshio velocity is smallest in fall almost every year, although the amplitude of seasonal variation and the season of maximum velocity are different from year to year. Interannual variations of isopycnal depth are characterized by a large amplitude of Group 2 and an opposite phase between Groups 3 and 4, so that the variations of difference in isopycnal depth between Groups 1 and 2 and Groups 3 and 4, i.e., the upper and lower shear of the Kuroshio velocity, are comparably significant.     

Some thoughts on the spring-neap cycle of tidal dissipation

The spring-neap cycle of global energy dissipation by ocean tides is calculated with a view to trying to explain an observed anomaly in the tidal fluctuations in the length of day. Calculations are performed in three ways: dissipation by friction linearly proportional to semidiurnal tide velocity, by quadratic friction, and by the torques of the lunar and solar tidal forces on the solar and lunar ocean tides, respectively. All methods give comparable results equivalent to an amplitude of about 0.1 μs change in the length of day with a small phase lag. These are inadequate to explain the observed anomaly of about 3 μs and 0.1 rad phase lag. Further investigations, to determine the generation of a non-equilibrium global MSf wave of equatorial amplitude 0.9 mm by nonlinear interactions in shallow seas using global tide models and observations, are suggested.     

One Dimensional Ecosystem Model Simulation of the Effects of Vertical Dilution by the Winter Mixing on the Spring Diatom Bloom

A one-dimensional ecosystem model has been used to investigate the processes relevant to the spring diatom bloom which play important roles in the biogeochemical cycle in the western subarctic Pacific. The model represents the plankton dynamics and the nutrient cycles in the spring diatom bloom; its results show the importance of dilution by deep mixing in winter. It is supposed that the vertically integrated biomass of phytoplankton decreases in the winter due to the decrease of photosynthesis, because the deep mixing transports phytoplankton to a layer with a low light level. However, the observed integrated diatom biomass increases as the mixed layer deepens. This is because the decrease of concentration due to dilution by mixing causes the diatom grazed pressure to be less significant than diatom photosynthesis. In other words, the effect of dilution on the grazed rate is more significant than the effect on the photosynthesis rate because the grazed rate depends on the concentrations of both diatom and grazer, whereas the photosynthesis rate depends only diatom concentration. The average specific diatom grazed rate, defined as grazed rate divided by diatom biomass, decreases by 35% associated with the deepening, while the average specific photosynthesis rate of diatom decreases by 11%. As a result, the average specific net diatom growth rate during the deep mixing is about 70% of its maximum during the spring diatom bloom. The deep mixing significantly affects the amplitude of the spring diatom bloom not only by the supply of nutrients but also by the dilution which drastically decreases the grazed pressure. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.