Ring-Shaped Seismicity Structures in the Areas of Sarez and Nurek Water Reservoirs (Tajikistan): Lithosphere Adaptation to Additional Loading

Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M _w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.     

Sharp changes in the character of the diurnal periodicity of earthquakes of the Garm research area in equinox periods

A diurnal periodicity in the number of earthquakes is detected as a result of an analysis of the worldwide catalog of earthquakes in 24 investigated samples corresponding to different time zones. It is established that the acrophase of the diurnal seismicity trend regularly changes when passing from one time zone to another, i.e., with changing geographic longitude. The corresponding equation of linear regression is obtained.     

Acrophase of the diurnal periodicity of earthquakes in different time zones

A diurnal periodicity in the number of earthquakes is detected as a result of an analysis of the worldwide catalog of earthquakes in 24 investigated samples corresponding to different time zones. It is established that the acrophase of the diurnal seismicity trend regularly changes when passing from one time zone to another, i.e., with changing geographic longitude. The corresponding equation of linear regression is obtained.     

Geodynamics of the deep sedimentary basin of the Caspian Sea region: paragenetic correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism

In this paper we analyze seismic regime and earthquake depth distribution and correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism in the Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region. For the present region we have calculated accurate source locations, seismic activity, earthquake repetition and released earthquake energy parameters. It is shown that the active tectonic processes in the region are concentrated within the thick sedimentary cover that we consider as a general source of contemporary stress and a main structural element responsible for the origin of regional earthquakes. The correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism is of paragenetic character.     

On the Diurnal Periodicity of Representative Earthquakes in Greece: Comparison of Data from Different Observation Systems

Due to the initiation of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) in late 2007, the quality of observation significantly improved by 2011. For example, the representative magnitude level considerably has decreased and the number of annually recorded events has increased. The new observational system highly expanded the possibilities for studying regularities in seismicity. In view of this, the authors revisited their studies of the diurnal periodicity of representative earthquakes in Greece that was revealed earlier in the earthquake catalog before 2011. We use 18 samples of earthquakes of different magnitudes taken from the catalog of Greek earthquakes from 2011 to June 2016 to derive a series of the number of earthquakes for each of them and calculate its average diurnal course. To increase the reliability of the results, we compared the data for two regions. With a high degree of statistical significance, we have obtained that no diurnal periodicity can be found for strongly representative earthquakes. This finding differs from the estimates obtained earlier from an analysis of the catalog of earthquakes at the same area for 1995–2004 and 2005–2010, i.e., before the initiation of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network. The new results are consistent with the hypothesis of noise discrimination (observational selection) explaining the cause of the diurnal variation of earthquakes with different sensitivity of the seismic network in daytime and nighttime periods.     

Possible triggering relationship of six M_w>6 earthquakes in 2018–2019 at Philippine archipelago

Philippine archipelago(PA) has strong background seismicity, but there is no systematic study of earthquake triggering in this region. There are six earthquakes(M_w 6) occurred between 2018/12/29 and 2019/09/29 in PA,which provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the triggering relationship among these events. We calculate the static Coulomb stress changes of the first five events, and find that the local seismicity after the2018/12/29 M_w 7.0 earthquake is mostly associated with positive Coulomb stress changes, including the2019/05/31 M_w 6.1 event, suggesting a possible triggering relationship. However, we cannot rule out the dynamic triggering mechanism, due to increased microseismicity in both positive and negative stress change regions, and an incomplete local catalog, especially right after the first M_w 7.0 mainshock. The dynamic stresses from these M_w 6 events are large enough(from 5 kPa to 3 532 kPa) to trigger subsequent events, but a lack of seismicity and waveform evidence does not support delayed dynamic triggering among these events, even the shortest time interval is less than 24 hours. In the past 45 years, the released seismic energy shows certain peaks every 5–10 years. However, earthquakes with M_w 6.0 were relatively infrequent between 2004 and 2018 at PA. Hence, it is possible that several regions are relatively late in their earthquake cycles, which would enhance their susceptibility of being triggered by earthquakes at nearby and regional distances.     

台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征

本文从地震的时，空分布特征，区域应力场动态，能量释放方式，ｂ值及震群特征６个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明，具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间，空间及功能方面的有序性变化，即：（ａ）地震空间分布由分散转为集中，形成条带或空区；（ｂ）断裂活动由多组转为单一，应力场趋向一致；（display status     

Tsunami mapping in the Gulf of Guayaquil,Ecuador, due to local seismicity

The North-Andean subduction zone generates recurrent tsunamigenic earthquakes. The seismicity is usually considered to be segmented because of different specific morphological features of the Nazca Plate driving the subduction motion. Most of the recent powerful earthquakes in the margin were located in its northern part. To the south, the region of the Gulf of Guayaquil, only (undocumented) three events in 1901, 1933 and 1953 were possibly powerful and tsunamigenic. Here we are interested in the tsunami signature due to local seismicity. Two realistic earthquake scenarios (M_w = 7 and M_w = 7.5) taking into account the hypothesized segmentation of the area are proposed. Their return period is supposed to be intra-centenary. Then, a larger magnitude unsegmented M_w = 8 scenario is computed (half-millennium return period). The interior of the Gulf of Guayaquil as well as the Santa Elena Peninsula are sheltered areas including numerous coastal infrastructures and the city of Guayaquil. It is predicted that potential flooding would occur at high tide only for both segmented and unsegmented scenarios in (1) south of Playas with however only a few centimeters of wave height and (2) Chanduy (a few meters). Both are important zones of coastal farms.     

Megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, in Japan: The event magnitude and the character of the aftershock sequence

The great Japanese earthquake (GJE) of March 11, 2011, was a megaevent. The conditions under which such seismic catastrophes occurred are discussed. The regime of the aftershocks of this megaevent is compared with the data on the aftershock sequences which accompanied the Simushir earthquakes (2006 and 2007) and the Andaman earthquake (2004) and with the seismicity behavior in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake. The aftershock sequences of the abovementioned strong earthquakes are shown to represent the sets of trend changes in the postshock activity and specific outbursts of seismic activity. Activity outbursts are characterized not only by an increase in the number and energy of events, but also by a decrease in the recurrence plot slope (b value) and the average earthquake depth. Some such outbursts correspond to the occurrence of strong repeated shocks. A possible mechanism for outbursts of seismic activity is proposed. The possibility of a stronger repeated shock in the vicinity of the megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, is discussed.     

Distinguishing features of the seismicity in South Kamchatka in the 20th century with regard to the Avacha Bay seismic gap

The distinguishing features of the seismicity throughout South Kamchatka and within the Avacha Bay seismic gap in the 20th century are considered. The evolution of the evaluation of the magnitudes of the strongest earthquakes for this gap from M = 7.25–7.5 in 1965–1980 to 7.75–8.0 after 1980 is discussed. On the basis of the method for studying the characteristic features of the seismicity within a seismic gap developed for the Central Kuriles, the seismicity of South Kamchatka is considered for depths of 0–100, 101–200, and more than 200 km according to the data from the New Catalog [6] for the period from 1901 to 1974 (M ≥ 6.1), the Special Catalog for North Eurasia [3] for the period from 1975 to 1993 (M ≥ 4.5), and additional data from the Kamchatka stations for the period from 1994 to 1997. It was found that the seismic process within the region of South Kamchatka is typical of the island arcs; i.e, most of the earthquakes considered and the maximum of the seismic energy released are concentrated in the lithosphere at depths of 0–100 km. The seismological situation in the zone of Avacha Bay is found to be similar to that within the second kind of the seismic gap during the precursory seismic quiescence of the 1978 Oaxac earthquake with M = 7.8 in Central Mexico. This allows us to consider the zone of Avacha Bay as a possible seismic gap of the second kind. Such a result can be considered as a suggestion of the possibility of the occurrence in Avacha Bay of an earthquake with M ～ 8 according to the long-term forecast for the region of the Kuriles and Kamchatka made by S.A. Fedotov.     

Material supply to the abyssal seafloor in the Northeast Atlantic

Downward particle flux was measured using sediment traps at various depths over the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (water depth 4850 m) for prolonged periods from 1989 to 1999. A strong seasonal pattern of flux was evident reaching a maximum in mid-summer. The composition of the material changed with depth, reflecting the processes of remineralisation and dissolution as the material sank through the water column. However, there was surprisingly little seasonal variation in its composition to reflect changes in the biology of the euphotic zone.Currents at the site have a strong tidal component with speeds almost always less than 15 cm/sec. In the deeper part of the water column they tend to be northerly in direction, when averaged over periods of several months.A model of upper ocean biogeochemistry forced by meteorology was run for the decade in order to provide an estimate of flux at 3000 m depth. Agreement with measured organic carbon flux is good, both in terms of the timings of the annual peaks and in the integrated annual flux. Interannual variations in the integrated flux are of similar magnitude for both the model output and sediment trap measurements, but there is no significant relationship between these two sets of estimates. No long-term trend in flux is evident, either from the model, or from the measurements.During two spring/summer periods, the marine snow concentration in the water column was assessed by time-lapse photography and showed a strong peak at the start of the downward pulse of material at 3000 m. This emphasises the importance of large particles during periods of maximum flux and at the start of flux peaks. Time lapse photographs of the seabed show a seasonal cycle of coverage of phytodetrital material, in agreement with the model output both in terms of timing and magnitude of coverage prior to 1996. However, after a change in the structure of the benthic community in 1996 no phytodetritus was evident on the seabed.The model output shows only a single peak in flux each year, whereas the measured data usually indicated a double peak. It is concluded that the observed double peak may be a reflection of lowered sediment trap efficiency when flux is very high and is dominated by large marine snow particles.Resuspension into the trap 100 m above the seabed, when compared to the primary flux at 3000 m depth (1800 mab) was lower during periods of high primary flux probably because of a reduction in the height of resuspension when the material is fresh. At 2 mab, the picture is more complex with resuspension being enhanced during the periods of higher flux in 1997, which is consistent with this hypothesis. However there was rather little relationship to flux at 3000 m in 1998.At 3000 m depth, the Flux Stability Index (FSI), which provides a measure of the constancy of the seasonal cycle of flux, exhibited an inverse relationship with flux, such that the highest flux of organic carbon was recorded during the year with the greatest seasonal variation.     

Application of the Altimetry Data to the Analysis of Water Balance of the Black Sea

We compare the estimates of the flow rates for the Upper and Lower Bosporus Currents obtained by using both the altimetry data on the Black-Sea level and the data of the coastal stations. Earlier, in analyzing the water exchange, it was customary to use the mean sea level computed according to the data of coastal stations located along the coast of the former Soviet Union. It is shown that the seasonal and annual variations of the increments of the mean sea level are qualitatively similar for the data of both types. At the same time, the values of the amplitudes of seasonal variations are noticeably different. The use of the increments of the mean sea level computed according to the altimetry data leads to insignificant changes in the annual water exchange through Bosporus as compared with the values obtained by using the coastal data. However, the seasonal variations of these data are somewhat different. We propose an algorithm for the evaluation of increments of the sea level, which, in authors' opinion, decreases the error in the analysis of water balance.     

警戒潮位核定中建立年极值水位序列的方法研究

文章以山东省警戒潮位核定为基础,对其沿岸验潮站的实测数据情况进行分类;根据不同类别,分别采用相关分析、数值模拟等方法补充实测数据,获得年极值水位序列,并采用极值Ⅰ型方法计算重现期高潮位。在警戒潮位核定中建立年极值水位序列所使用方法的顺序是,有实测数据优先采用实测数据、没有实测数据利用相关关系、没有相关关系再使用数值模拟和调和分析的方法进行。值得注意的是,在使用相关关系建立年极值水位序列中,计算重现期高潮位时一定要满足潮汐性质相同、所受风暴潮过程相似等条件;在使用数值模拟建立年极值水位序列中,须与其全年天文潮最大值进行对比。     

Measurement of tsunamis in the open ocean

Abstract

The spectrum of long waves, which are a background to tsunamis, is analyzed on the basis of records of near‐bottom pressure sensors obtained in the Northwest Pacific during the first and second USA‐USSR expeditions on the investigation of tsunamis in the open ocean (1975 and 1978). Instrumental trends, tidal oscillations, and quasistationary longwave noise were contained in the records. Special filters were used to pick out small waves generated by the seismicity of the ocean bottom. A decrease of noise level from 10² cm (including tides) to 10°¹ cm could be reached. The level of long‐wave noise is found to depend on the instrument's location. Minimal disturbances in the records were observed at stations situated on the edge of the continental slope. The influence of cyclones passing over the instrument's site is deduced. It shows an increase in noise level on Nyquist frequency (0.5 min°¹), which possibly is caused by the action of swell generated by the cyclone. Seismicity of the region under investigation for the second expedition (August‐October 1978) is described, and the recurrence of tsunamis is estimated, including microtsunamis. Taking into account this analysis, records were filtered and sections corresponding to probable arrivals of tsunamis from most strong earthquakes were selected. The anomalous disturbance of ocean level with a height of about 0.5 cm was found. Presumably, it was generated by an earthquake with magnitude M = 6.     

Comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of snow cover in Russian watersheds according to observations and reanalyses

Seasonal and interannual variability of the water equivalent of snow over the period 1966–1996 is analyzed with the use of the ERA/ECMWF reanalysis data, two versions of the NCEP reanalysis, and ground-based instrumental observations. Regions have been determined where snow characteristics from various sources are most consistent. In general, the snow water equivalent data from the ERA reanalysis are closer to the snow survey data than the NCEP reanalysis data. The best consistency of the water equivalent of snow in the reanalyses with measured data is observed in the period when the snow cover begins to form, in November and December, and the largest discrepancies are found for the snowmelt period, April and May. The interannual variability of the water equivalent in Asian Russia in the 1990s is better reproduced by the NCEP/DOE-II reanalysis. The snow cover data from satellite observations are compared with ground-based instrumental observations. It is shown that large discrepancies between the snow surveys and satellite observations may be observed at the snow-cover boundary during periods of snow formation and snowmelt.     

Correlation of extreme waves and water levels using a third-generation wave model and a 3D flow model

A procedure to correlate extreme wave heights and extreme water levels in coastal waters using numerical models together with joint probability analysis has been proposed. A third-generation wave model for wave simulation and a three-dimensional flow model for water level simulation are coupled through the surface atmospheric boundary layer. The model has been calibrated and validated against wind, wave and water level data collected in the coastal waters of Hong Kong. The annual maximum wave height and the concomitant water level have been obtained by simulating the annual extreme typhoon event for 50 consecutive years. The results from bivariate extreme value analysis of the simulated data show that the commonly used empirical method may lead to underestimation of the design water level.     

Differences in seasonal variations in the patterns of diurnal earthquake periodicity in the southern and northern hemispheres

Seasonal variations in the form of diurnal periodicity are compared in three regions of the world, two of which (Alaska and Japan) are located in the Northern Hemisphere and one (New Zealand) is in the Southern Hemisphere. It is found that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the duration of the night interval of an increased number of earthquakes in December is greater than in June, while in the Southern Hemisphere it is smaller. The intra-annual character of variations in the form of diurnal earthquake periodicity agrees with the seasonal variations in the length of the day.     

Comparative morphological analysis of the diurnal rhythms in geomagnetic and seismic activity

To verify the hypothesis of the possible influence of geomagnetic variations on seismicity, the structures of the diurnal rhythms of seismicity in Garm research area, Tajikistan, and geomagnetic activity are investigated in detail using the regional index of geomagnetic activity at the Tashkent Astronomical Observatory. We compare (1) the average shape of the diurnal variations and its seasonal changes; (2) temporal changes in special coefficients of the amplitude variations and the diurnal variation stability. It is revealed that the dynamics of the mentioned parameters differ considerably between the geomagnetic and seismic activities. We conclude that the results obtained on the basis of the used data and processing techniques do not confirm the hypothesis of possible influence of weak geomagnetic variations on background seismicity in the Garm region, Tajikistan.     

Possible origin of laminated sediments of the anoxic Bannock Basin (eastern Mediterranean)

Quantitative analysis of nannofossils and microfossils in laminated sediments recovered from the Libeccio Basin of the Bannock area and a comparison with similar laminated sediments from anoxic basins in the Black Sea and the Gulf of Mexico suggest that the laminated sediments in this eastern Mediterranean anoxic basin are the result of cyclic productivity changes. It is suggested on the basis of periodicity estimates of 80 yr that the laminae are related to changes in solar activity (Wolf-Gleissberg cycles) that influenced the Nile discharge and thus the nutrient supply in the water masses.