Observations of trace gases and aerosols over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition period

Characteristics of trace gases (O₃, CO, CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) and aerosols (particle size of 2.5 micron) were studied over the Arabian Sea, equatorial Indian Ocean and southwest part of the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon transition period (October–November, 2004). Flow of pollutants is expected from south and southeast Asia during the monsoonal transition period due to the patterns of wind flow which are different from the monsoon period. This is the first detailed report on aerosols and trace gases during the sampled period as the earlier Bay of Bengal Experiment (BOBMEX), Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) and Indian Ocean Experiments (INDOEX) were during monsoon seasons. The significant observations during the transition period include: (i) low ozone concentration of the order of 5 ppbv around the equator, (ii) high concentrations of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O and (iii) variations in PM2.5 of 5–20μg/m³.     

A brief summary of Dr. G. V. Rao’s research interests

A brief summary of Dr. G. V. Rao's research interests is presented. Many of his earlier studies were in conjunction with the summer Monsoon Experiment of 1979 (MONEX-79). These included: 1) the structure of the Somali jet based on aerial observations; 2) sea-level air trajectories over the equatorial Indian Ocean; 3) structural features of the east African low-level flow; 4) effects of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulations; 5) structures of the monsoon low-level flow over the Arabian Sea; 6) characteristics and momentum-flux budgets of the Arabian Sea convective bands; and 7) evaporation and precipitation over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon seasons. Dr. Rao's research efforts in recent years had focused on case studies of mesocyclones spawned by tropical cyclones (TCs) in Florida using Doppler radar data and a mesoscale numerical model. These included: 1) research on tornadic mesocyclones spawned by TC Earl in 1998; 2) documentation of subtle differences between tornadic and non-tornadic mesocyclones in TC Floyd in 1999; and 3) numerical simulation of the tornadic environment observed in peninsular Florida during TC Earl in 1998. Preliminary findings show that the supercells' cold pools interacted with an existing boundary resulting in increased baroclinicity and horizontal vorticity, and a maximization of the tornado production potential by the updrafts. The model successfully simulated the mesoscale features of the mesocyclones and the tornadic environment observed during TC Earl. A 24 h simulation of accumulated rainfall within the inner domain agreed well with the observed precipitation pattern over the region.     

Has influence of extratropical waves in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) increased?

In the paper, influence of extratropical circulation features on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is examined. Energetics of extratropics, north of Indian subcontinent for deficient and non-deficient ISMR years, during two periods 1951–1978 and 1979–2005, are calculated and critically analyzed. It is observed that for the period 1951–1978, only two out of the 10 energetics parameters, viz., the zonal available potential energy (high) and conversion of zonal kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy (low) differed significantly in JJA months of the deficient years from that of the non-deficient years. However, during the 1979–2005 period, as many as six out of the 10 energetics parameters, viz., eddy available potential energy, zonal available potential energy, eddy kinetic energy, generation of zonal available potential energy, conversion of zonal available potential energy to zonal kinetic energy and conversion of zonal kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy differed significantly in JJA months of the deficient years from that of the non-deficient years. These results confirm growing influence of the transient stationary waves in deficient years after the climate shift year, 1979. Analysis of energetics parameters of the pre-monsoon season of the two periods also reveals similar results. This suggests that forcings apparently responsible for energetics in JJA months of the deficient years of the later period were present even before the advent of Indian summer monsoon season.     

Hydrography of the eastern Arabian Sea during summer monsoon 2002

Hydrographic observations in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) during summer monsoon 2002 (during the first phase of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)) include two approximately fortnight-long CTD time series. A barrier layer was observed occasionally during the two time series. These ephemeral barrier layers were caused byin situ rainfall, and by advection of low-salinity (high-salinity) waters at the surface (below the surface mixed layer). These barrier layers were advected away from the source region by the West India Coastal Current and had no discernible effect on the sea surface temperature. The three high-salinity water masses, the Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW), Persian Gulf Water (PGW), and Red Sea Water (RSW), and the Arabian Sea Salinity Minimum also exhibited intermittency: they appeared and disappeared during the time series. The concentration of the ASHSW, PGW, and RSW decreased equatorward, and that of the RSW also decreased offshore. The observations suggest that the RSW is advected equatorward along the continental slope off the Indian west coast.     

A study on the structure of the convective atmosphere over the Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

Convective activity is one of the major processes in the atmosphere influencing the local and large-scale weather in the tropics. The latent heat released by the cumulus cloud is known to drive monsoon circulation, which on the other hand supplies the moisture that maintains the cumulus clouds. An investigation is carried out on the convective structure of the atmosphere during active and suppressed periods of convection using data sets obtained from the Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The cumulus convection though being a small-scale phenomenon, still influences its embedding environment by interaction through various scales. This study shows the variation in the kinematic and convective parameters during the transition from suppressed to active periods of convection. Convergence in the lower levels and strong upward vertical velocity, significant during active convection are associated with the formation of monsoon depressions. The apparent heat source due to latent heat release and the vertical transport of the eddy heat by cumulus convection, and the apparent moisture sink due to net condensation and vertical divergence of the eddy transport of moisture, are estimated through residuals of the thermodynamic equation and examined in relation to monsoon activity during BOBMEX.     

Cloud distribution over East Asia during the summer monsoon season interpreted through satellite pictures

Summer monsoon clouds over East Asia observed by the meteorological satellite Himawari and ESSA were analyzed in order to shed light on the dynamic climatology of the area during the Baiu season. The mean cloudiness over Monsoon Asia undergoes little change and is nearly 50%, but the monsoon cloud belt varies in time and space in accordance with the seasonal shift of the strongest westerly flow axis at the 500 mb level. The summer monsoon clouds form a belt in which a major amount of water vapor is transported, extending from South China to the Bering Sea. Monsoon rains occur in Japan when the belt of monsoon cloud is over Japan and ends when the cloud belt moves away.     

Surface and upper air meteorological features during onset phase of 2003 monsoon

The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset. The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5°C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29°C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.     

Seismic investigations in the Weddell Sea Embayment

Seismic multi-channel data collected during Norwegian Antarctic Research Expeditions in 1976–1977 and 1978–1979 outline aspects of the Cenozoic depositional environment in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Acoustic basement, probably representing the East Antarctic craton, is exposed in a 50–100 km wide swath along the ice barrier between 78°S–75.5°S on the eastern side of the Crary Trough. The shelf prograded westward and northward from the craton into a subsiding basin colinear with the Transantarctic Mountain Range. Measured sediment thicknesses exceed 5 km. During middle and late Tertiary times a submarine fan complex—the Crary Fan—developed on the southeastern margin of the Weddell Sea Embayment. The glacially eroded Crary Trough is located at the contact between the craton and a sedimentary basin to the west. The entire sedimentary section is undisturbed by faulting or folding, which indicates that any movements related to Cenozoic uplift of the Trans-Antarctic Mountains and/or relative motion of East Antarctica had little effect in the area north of the Filchner Ice Shelf east of 41°W.     

全球季风和季风边缘研究

全球卫星探测和观测资料的积累,使以南海季风、亚洲季风为代表的季风研究兴起了一波研究热潮。区域季风认识的深入,推动了全球季风认识的发展,全球季风概念在20世纪末被提出来,并在21世纪初成为热点研究方向。季风边缘是与全球季风密切相关的概念,东亚夏季风北边缘的近期演变与全球季风过去几十年的减弱有关。全球季风的演变表现为分布全球的大气活动中心和季风槽的活动,[JP2]这些成员组成了一个完整的全球季风系统。按照上述季风研究的发展脉络,系统地总结全球季风和季风边缘研究的进展,并提出未来季风研究的方向会把全球大气活动中心与全球气候槽,包括全球季风槽联系起来,即从季风系统着手研究全球季风的年代际和世纪尺度变率。     

Variation of coastal atmospheric boundary layer characteristics with convective activity along the west coast of India during the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) 2002

This paper investigates the characteristic features of the coastal atmospheric boundary layer (CABL) along the west coast of India during the south-west monsoon (SWM) 2002. Extensive surface and upper-air findings were obtained during the same period from the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX; 15th June to 15th August 2002) 2002. The operational general circulation model (GCM) of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) was used in this study to see the spatial variation of the CABL during two specific convective episodes that led to heavy rainfall along the west coast of India. The impact of a non-local closure (NLC) scheme employed in the NCMRWF GCM was carried out in simulating the CABL. The same episodes were also simulated using a similar parameterization scheme employed in the high resolution mesoscale modelling system (MM5). The diurnal variation of CABL is better represented from MM5 simulation. Comparing the MM5 simulation with that of the coarser grid NCMRWF GCM, we observed that the NCMRWF GCM underestimates the values of both latent heat flux (LHF) and the coastal atmospheric boundary layer height (CABLH). Results from MM5 therefore indicate that the best way to move forward in addressing the short-comings of coarse grid-scale GCMs is to provide a parameterization of the diurnal effects associated with convection processes.     

南海沉积物漫反射光谱反映的220ka以来东亚夏季风变迁

对南海越南岸外“太阳号”95航次17954孔220ka以来的沉积样品进行了漫反射光谱分析, 并从中提取F1和F2两个主因子及亮度和红度等漫反射光谱特征值, 发现漫反射光谱F1值和亮度反映了沉积物中的碳酸盐含量, 而漫反射光谱F2值和红度反映了沉积物中的铁氧化物含量, 后者可用作东亚夏季风的替代性指标.17954孔沉积物的漫反射光谱F2值显示, 倒数第二次冰消期东亚夏季风快速增长时间约在129ka; 本次工作还发现东亚夏季风在两次冰消期前的氧同位素2阶段和6阶段晚期各有一个异常强盛的时期.漫反射分析结果显示东亚夏季风主要受控于太阳辐射强度变化, 并明显地受低纬地区气候的影响.      

Interrelationship between cloud cover and sensible heat flux over land during MONTBLEX-1990

Micro-meteorological tower observations of MONTBLEX (Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment)-1990, combined with routine surface observations at Jodhpur in the dry convective sector of Indian summer monsoon trough are used to examine the interrelationship between total cloud cover (TCC) and surface sensible heat flux (SHF) during the summer monsoon of 1990. A significant inverse relationship between TCC and SHF is found during various Intensive Observation Periods of the experiment. This relationship holds for the various methods of estimation of SHF.     

Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constituted by the World Meteorological Organisation provides expert guidance regarding scientific and technical aspects of the climate problem. Since 1990 IPCC has, at five-yearlyintervals, assessedand reported on the current state of knowledge and understanding of the climate issue. These reports have projected the behaviour of the Asian monsoon in the warming world. While the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1996) on climate model projections of Asian/Indian monsoon stated ``Most climate models produce more rainfall over South Asia in a warmer climate with increasing CO<sub>2</sub>', the recent IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report states ``It is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength.'Climate model projections(IPCC, 2001) also suggest more El Niño – like events in the tropical Pacific, increase in surface temperatures and decrease in the northern hemisphere snow cover. The Indian Monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon and its links with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, northern hemisphere surface temperature and Eurasian snow are well documented.In the light of the IPCC globalwarming projections on the Asian monsoon, the interannual and decadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India and its teleconnections have been examined by using observed data for the 131-year (1871–2001) period. While the interannual variations showyear-to-year random fluctuations, thedecadal variations reveal distinct alternate epochs of above and below normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about three decades. There is no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. Though the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the millennium(IPCC, 2001), the IMR variability has decreased drastically.Connections between the ENSO phenomenon, Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the Eurasian snow with IMR reveal that the correlations are not only weak but have changed signs in the early 1990s suggesting that the IMR has delinked not only with the Pacific but with the Northern Hemisphere/Eurasian continent also. The fact that temperature/snow relationships with IMR are weak further suggests that global warming need not be a cause for the recent ENSO-Monsoon weakening.Observed snow depth over theEurasian continent has been increasing, which could be a result of enhanced precipitation due to the global warming.     

Changing predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies?

The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during 1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT), March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February (NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position, small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s. Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT, T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT + NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall. These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting.     

南海南部海洋环流研究的新进展

综合近期南海南部环流研究的主要成果,描述南海南部的主要流系及其变化。指出研究海区环流主要由季风所驱动。东北季风期,其西部主要由气旋式环流所控制,东部则受较弱的反气旋式环流控制,在二者结合部形成强的逆风海流。西南季风期,海区大部分受反气旋式环流控制,其北侧为一气旋式环流,二者结合部形成强的东向离岸流。还讨论了环流的演变特性和流涡的形成机制。     

Relative role of sea surface temperature and snow on Indian summer monsoon seasonal simulation using a GCM

Indian summer monsoon is a global scale phenomenon controlled by different land, ocean, and atmospheric parameters. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow are two of the major parameters, which may alter the spatial and temporal patterns of circulation and rainfall during Indian summer monsoon. In the current paper, we study the monsoon variability using long integrations (20 years) of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD) Spectral model at T80L18 resolution with observed and climatological SST and snow. Study shows response of IITD GCM in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation relative to the snow and SST as boundary conditions. The model’s response to SST and snow is examined by conducting four types of experiments by varying observed and climatological values of snow and SST. This paper discusses the seasonal total rainfall for country as a whole and 850 and 200 hPa wind for the period of 20 years starting from 1985 to 2004. The model has been integrated in the ensemble mode with five different initial conditions from the last week of April and first week of May. The model is able to capture the climatological patterns of seasonal total rainfall and averaged wind at lower and upper levels. Observed snow in the presence of climatological SST as a boundary condition shows much impact on rainfall and circulation than observed SST in the presence of climatological snow. Model performance is good in simulating the normal and excess monsoon conditions; it shows poor skill in capturing deficit monsoon years.     

South Equatorial Current (SEC) driven changes at DSDP Site 237, Central Indian Ocean, during the Plio-Pleistocene: Evidence from Benthic Foraminifera and Stable Isotopes

This study attempts to analyse paleoceanographic changes in the Central Indian Ocean (Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 237), linked to monsoon variability as well as deep-sea circulation during the Plio-Pleistocene. We used factor and cluster analyses of census data of the 34 most dominant species of benthic foraminifera that enabled us to identify five biofacies: Astrononion umbilicatulum–Uvigerina proboscidea (Au–Up), Pullenia bulloides–Bulimina striata (Pb–Bs), Globocassidulina tumida–Nuttallides umbonifera (Gt–Nu), Gyroidinoides nitidula–Cibicides wuellerstorfi (Gn–Cw) and Cassidulina carinata–Cassidulina laevigata (Cc–Cl) biofacies. Knowledge of the environmental preferences of modern deep-sea benthic foraminifera helped to interpret the results of factor and cluster analyses in combination with oxygen and carbon isotope values. The biofacies indicative of high surface productivity, resulting from a stronger South Equatorial Current (Au–Up and Pb–Bs biofacies), dominate the early Pliocene interval (5.6–4.5 Ma) of global warmth. An intense Indo-Pacific ‘biogenic bloom’ and strong Oxygen Minimum Zone extended to intermediate depths (1000–2000 m) over large parts of the Indian Ocean in the early Pliocene. Since 4.5 Ma, the food supply in the Central Indian Ocean dropped and fluctuated while deep waters were corrosive (biofacies Gt–Nu, Gn–Cw). The Pleistocene interval is characterized by an intermediate flux of organic matter (Cc–Cl biofacies).     

Traceurs sédimentaires des variations du niveau marin et de la mousson sud-est asiatique depuis 450 ka en mer de Chine du Sud

In order to reconstruct the past variations of the Southeast Asian monsoon intensity and estimate the sedimentary system reactivity to climatic changes in Southeast Asia over the last 450 kyr, mineralogical and sedimentological analyses have been performed on the terrigenous fraction of the South China Sea sediment. End-member modelling coupled with grain size data discriminates three end-members that determine the nature and intensity of the main sediment transport vectors. Low sea-level stands are characterized by sediment reworking that allows transportation of a coarse end-member (20–40 μm) to the deep-basin. By contrast, the other end-members (4–6 μm; 9–13 μm) are controlled by the shoreline position (sea level) and/or by changes of the rivers capacity transport (monsoon). Finally, aeolian input to the northern margin of the South China Sea can be considered negligible compared to the massive fluvial input and the reworking of the sediments.     

Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ): the western extension of the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake fault (Northern Greece) and seismic hazard assessment

Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ.     

三大自然区过渡地带近50年来气候类型变化及其对气候变化的响应

The transition area of three natural zones (Eastern Monsoon Region, Arid Region of Northwest China, Qinghai Tibet Plateau Region) is influenced by the Asian monsoon and middle latitude westerly circulation because of its special geographical position. And it is more sensitive to global climate change. The Koppen climate classification, which is widely used in the world, and the accumulated temperature-dryness classification, which is usually used in China, were used to study the climate zones and changes in the region of longitude 97.5°~108°E, latitude 33°~41.5°N, from 1961 to 2010. The changing areas of each climate zone were compared to the East Asian Summer Monsoon index, the South Asian Summer Monsoon index, the Summer Westerly index, the East Asian Winter Monsoon index, the Plateau Summer Monsoon index, the North Atlantic Oscillation index, the Southern Oscillation index, NINO3.4 index, to explore the response of the transition area of three natural zones to each climate system. According to the results, this region will become wetter when the Summer Westerly or the East Asian Winter Monsoon is relatively strong. When the East Asian Summer Monsoon or the South Asian Summer Monsoon becomes strong, the climate in low altitude region of the study area will easily become drier, and the climate in high altitude region of the study area is easily to become wetter. When the Plateau Summer Monsoon is relatively strong, the climate in the study area will easily become drier. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is relatively strong, the study area will easily become wetter. And when the El Niño is relatively strong, or the Southern Oscillation is relatively weak, the study area will easily become drier. In general, the moisture status of this region is mainly controlled by the middle latitude westerly circulation. The enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon could increase the precipitation in the southeast part of this regional, but, according to the degrees of dryness and the types of climate change in this paper, warming effects could offset precipitation increasing and make the area drier. The transition area of three natural zones is influenced by multiple interactions of climate systems from East Asia. A single climatic index, such as air temperature or precipitation, can not completely represent the regional features of climate change. As a result, areas of climate zones can be used as an important index in the regional climate change assessment.