Forecasting Gulf’s hypoxia: The next 50 years?

This review discusses the use of hypoxia models in synthesizing the knowledge about the causes of Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, predicting the probable consequences of management actions, and building a consensus about the management of hypoxia. It also offers suggestions for future efforts related to simulating and forecasting Gulf hypoxia. The existing hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico range from simple regression models to complex three-dimensional simulation models, and they capture very different aspects of the physics, chemistry, and biology of this region. Several of these models were successfully calibrated to observations relevant for their process formulations and spatial-temporal scales. Available model results are compared to reach the consensus that large-scale hypoxia probably did not begin in the Gulf of Mexico until the mid 1970s, and that the 30% nitrogen load reduction that is called for by the Action Plan may not be sufficient to achieve its goal. The present models results suggest that a 40–45% reduction in riverine nitrogen load may be necessary to achieve the desired reduction in the areal extent of hypoxia. These model results underscore the importance of setting this goal as a running average because of significant interannual variability. Caution is raised for setting resource management goals without considering the long-term consequences of climate variability and change.     

Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the Plan to Reduce,Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Nutrient changes in the Mississippi River and system responses on the adjacent continental shelf

The Mississippi River system ranks among the world's top 10 rivers in freshwater and sediment inputs to the coastal ocean. The river contributes 90% of the freshwater loading to the Gulf of Mexico, and terminates amidst one of the United States' most productive fisheries regions and the location of the largest zone of hypoxia, in the western Atlantic Ocean. Significant increases in riverine nutrient concentrations and loadings of nitrate and phosphorus and decreases in silicate have occurred this century, and have accelerated since 1950. Consequently, major alterations have occurred in the probable nutrient limitation and overall stoichiometric nutrient balance in the adjacent continental shelf system. Changes in the nutrient balances and reduction in riverine silica loading to, the continental shelf appear to have led to phytoplankton species shifts offshore and to an increase in primary production. The phytoplankton community response, as indicated by long-term changes in biological uptake of silicate and accumulation of biologically bound silica in sediments, has shown how the system has responded to changes in riverine nutrient loadings. Indeed, the accumulation of biologically bound silica in sediments beneath the Mississippi River plume increased during the past two decades, presumably in response to, increased nitrogen loading. The duration, size, and severity of hypoxia has probably increased as a consequence of the increased primary production. Management alternatives directed at water pollution issues within the Mississippi River watershed may have unintended and contrasting impacts on the coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Characterization of nutrient, organic carbon, and sediment loads and concentrations from the Mississippi River into the northern Gulf of Mexico

We synthesize and update the science supporting the Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001) with a focus on the spatial and temporal discharge and patterns of nutrient and organic carbon delivery to the northern Gulf of Mexico, including data through 2006. The discharge of the Mississippi River watershed over 200 years varies but is not demonstrably increasing or decreasing. About 30% of the Mississippi River was shunted westward to form the Atchafalaya River, which redistributed water and nutrient loads on the shelf. Data on nitrogen concentrations from the early 1900s demonstrate that the seasonal and annual concentrations in the lower river have increased considerably since then, including a higher spring loading, following the increase in fertilizer applications after World WarII. The loading of total nitrogen (TN) fell from 1990 to 2006, but the loading of total phosphorus (TP) has risen slightly, resulting in a decline in the TN:TP ratios. The present TN:TP ratios hover around an average indicative of potential nitrogen limitation on phytoplankton growth, or balanced growth limitation, but not phosphorus limitation. The dissolved nitrogen:dissolved silicate ratios are near the Redfield ratio indicative of growth limitations on diatoms. Although nutrient concentrations are relatively high compared to those in many other large rivers, the water quality in the Mississippi River is not unique in that nutrient loads can be described by a variety of land-use models. There is no net removal of nitrogen from water flowing through the Atchafalaya basin, but the concentrations of TP and suspended sediments are lower at the exit point (Morgan City, Louisiana) than in the water entering the Atchafalaya basin. The removal of nutrients entering offshore waters through diversion of river water into wetlands is presently less than 1% of the total loadings going directly offshore, and would be less than 8% if the 10,093 km² of coastal wetlands were successfully engineered for that purpose. Wetland loss is an insignificant contribution to the carbon loading offshore, compared to in situ marine production. The science-based conclusions in the Action Plan about nutrient loads and sources to the hypoxic zone off Louisiana are sustained by research and monitoring occurring in the subsequent 10 years.     

A review of water column processes influencing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

In this review, we use data from field measurements of biogeochemical processes and cycles in the Mississippi River plume and in other shelf regions of the northern Gulf of Mexico to determine plume contributions to coastal hypoxia. We briefly review pertinent findings from these process studies, review recent mechanistic models that synthesize these processes to address hypoxia-related issues, and reinterpret current understanding in the context of these mechanistic models. Some of our conclusions are that both nitrogen and phosphorus are sometimes limiting to phytoplankton growth; respiration is the main fate of fixed carbon in the plume, implying that recycling is the main fate of nitrogen; decreasing the river nitrate loading results in less than a 1:1 decrease in organic matter sinking from the plume; and sedimenting organic matter from the Mississippi River plume can only fuel about 23% of observed coastal hypoxia, suggesting significant contributions from the Atchafalaya River and, possibly, coastal wetlands. We also identify gaps in our knowledge about controls on hypoxia, and indicate that some reinterpretation of our basic assumptions about this system is required. There are clear needs for improved information on the sources, rates, and locations of organic matter sedimentation; for further investigation of internal biogeochemical processes and cycling; for improved understanding of the rates of oxygen diffusion across the pycnocline; for identification and quantification of other sources of organic matter fueling hypoxia or other mechanisms by which Mississippi River derived organic matter fuels hypoxia; and for the development of a fully coupled physical-biogeochemical model.     

The role of science in federal policy development on a regional to global scale: Personal commentary

Nutrient enrichment of coastal waters is an example of the large-scale, highly complex environmental challenges facing decision makers today. Conventional monitoring networks and advanced observational capabilities permit the detection of changes in the environment at continental to global scales (e.g., hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico, aerosol plumes stretching across the ocean, global atmospheric enrichment of carbon dioxide). Much more knowledge is needed, however, to fully understand the societal consequences of environmental change and of actions taken to address them. This paper discusses the emerging role of assessment in developing effective U.S. policy responses to large-scale, complex environmental change while improving the scientific understanding of the problem. In the cases of global climate change and coastal hypoxia, the U.S. Congress passed legislation authorizing assessments recognizing that decision making must proceed in the face of scientific uncertainty. Evaluating the state of knowledge is usually the first step in an assessment in order to provide a picture of what is known and where there are knowledge gaps. Assessments should also provide the policy maker with an idea of the level of uncertainty, how long it may take to reduce the uncertainty, what information is most critical to resolve, and the consequences and benefits of the various management options. In this paper I draw upon several examples from national assessments, including those of climate change impacts on the U.S. and relationships between Mississippi River water and Gulf of Mexico water quality, to illustrate the strengths and difficulties of using science and assessment to inform the policy process.     

Abundance and Distribution of Reef-Associated Fishes Around Small Oil and Gas Platforms in the Northern Gulf of Mexico’s Hypoxic Zone

Oil and gas platforms (platforms) provide high-relief habitat in the northern Gulf of Mexico’s hypoxic zone that are important to associated fishes. Hypoxia develops near the bottom and reef-associated fishes utilize vertical structure in the well-oxygenated waters overlaying hypoxia. A video array was used to profile the water column and to estimate abundances and depth distributions of fishes before, during, and after summer hypoxia at platforms experiencing intense (seaward) and mild hypoxia (shoal). Gray snapper abundance increased at shoal platforms (10× greater after vs. before the hypoxia season), while abundance remained stable at seaward platforms. However, there was no significant relationship between gray snapper abundance and oxygen concentrations. Sheepshead, Atlantic spadefish, blue runner, and Atlantic bumper abundances varied throughout the summer, but there was no significant effect of hypoxia. Occupation of bottom waters by fishes was consistent throughout the study period at shoal platforms, but fishes were rarely observed in the bottom 3 m and congregated in the water immediately above the hypoxic layer when hypoxia was present at seaward platforms. Nevertheless, patterns of fish abundances were not driven by the presence or absence of hypoxia. The vertical dimension of platforms is a unique and key aspect of their ecological value, especially in the hypoxic zone, and should be considered for artificial reef management.     

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen: Implications for nutrient over-enrichment of coastal waters

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (AD-N) is a significant source of nitrogen enrichment to nitrogen (N)-limited estuarine and coastal waters downwind of anthropogenic emissions. Along the eastern U.S. coast and eastern Gulf of Mexico, AD-N currently accounts for 10% to over 40% of new N loading to estuaries. Extension of the regional acid deposition model (RADM) to coastal shelf waters indicates that 11, 5.6, and 5.6 kg N ha⁻¹ may be deposited on the continental shelf areas of the northeastern U.S. coast, southeast U.S. coast, and eastern Gulf of Mexico, respectively. AD-N approximates or exceeds riverine N inputs in many coastal regions. From a spatial perspective, AD-N is a unique source of N enrichment to estuarine and coastal waters because, for a receiving water body, the airshed may exceed the watershed by 10–20 fold. AD-N may originate far outside of the currently managed watersheds. AD-N may increase in importance as a new N source by affecting waters downstream of the oligohaline and mesohaline estuarine nutrient filters where large amounts of terrestrially-supplied N are assimilated and denitrified. Regionally and globally, N deposition associated with urbanization (NO_x, peroxyacetyl nitrate, or PAN) and agricultural expansion (NH₄ ⁺ and possibly organic N) has increased in coastal airsheds. Recent growth and intensification of animal (poultry, swine, cattle) operations in the midwest and mid-Atlantic regions have led to increasing amounts of NH₄ ⁺ emission and deposition, according to a three decadal analysis of the National Acid Deposition Program network. In western Europe, where livestock operations have dominated agricultural production for the better part of this century, NH₄ ⁺ is the most abundant form of AD-N. AD-N deposition in the U.S. is still dominated by oxides of N (NO_x) emitted from fossil fuel combustion; annual NH₄ ⁺ deposition is increasing, and in some regions is approaching total NO₃ ⁻ deposition. In receiving estuarine and coastal waters, phytoplankton community structural and functional changes, associated water quality, and trophic and biogeochemical alterations (i.e, algal blooms, hypoxia, food web, and fisheries habitat disruption) are frequent consequences of N-driven eutrophication. Increases in and changing proportions of various new N sources regulate phytoplankton competitive interactions, dominance, and successional patterns. These quantitative and qualitative aspects of AD-N and other atmospheric nutrient sources (e.g., iron) may promote biotic changes now apparent in estuarine and coastal waters, including the proliferation of harmful algal blooms, with cascading impacts on water quality and fisheries.     

Reducing nonpoint nitrogen to acceptable levels with emphasis on the Upper Mississippi River Basin

The purpose of this paper is to expand debate about the future landscapes of the upper Midwest of the United States. The paper addresses options that could reinvent the agricultural systems of the Corn Belt, which coincides with the Upper Mississippi River Basin. The changes would move this region from one dependent on a grain economy, with low economic returns and high nutrient and sediment losses, to a more ecologically-based landscape emphasizing nutrient sinks, especially for nitrogen, and a legume base for supplementing fertilizer nitrogen. The reinvented systems require a higher level of management to lessen nitrogen and phosphorus losses while supporting family farms and strong rural communities. This reinvented agriculture would ultimately benefit the Gulf of Mexico by significantly lowering the amount of nitrate exported to the Gulf. The paper is not intended to be a comprehensive review of the literature, nor one that offers the full range of options to address the problems facing the watershed and the owners and operators of the land. Rather, I hope to facilitate discussion of the goals of midwestern U.S. agriculture in relation to ecosystem protection.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen inputs to Florida Bay: The importance of the everglades watershed

A large environmental restoration project designed to improve the hydrological conditions of the Florida Everglades and increase freshwater flow to Florida Bay is underway. Here we explore how changing freshwater inflow to the southern Everglades is likely to change the input of nutrients to Florida Bay. We calculated annual inputs of water, total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to Everglades National Park (ENP) since the early 1980s. We also examined changes in these nutrient concentrations along transects through the wetland to Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. We found that the interannual variability of the water discharge into ENP greatly exceeded the interannual variability of flow-weighted mean nutrient concentrations in this water. Nutrient inputs to ENP were largely determined by discharge volume. These inputs were high in TN and low in TP; for two ENP watersheds TN averaged 1.5 mg l^?1 (0.11 mM) and 0.9 mg l^?1 (0.06 mM) and TP averaged 15 μg l^?1 (0.47 μM) and 9 μg l^?1 (0.28 μM). Both TP and DIN that flowed into ENP wetlands were rapidly removed from the water. Over a 3-km section of Taylor Slough, TP decreased from a flow-weighted mean of 11.6 μg l^?1 (0.37 μM) (0.20 μM) and DIN decreased from 240 μg l^?1 (17μM) to 36 μ l^?1 (2.6 μM). In contrast, TN, which was generally 95% organic N, changed little as it passed through the wetland. This resulted in molar TN:TP ratios exceeding 400 in the wetland. Decreases in TN concentrations only occurred in areas with relatively high P availability, such as the wetlands to the north of ENP and in the mangrove streams of western ENP. Increasing freshwater flow to Florida Bay in an effort to restore the Everglades and Florida Bay ecosystems is thus not likely to increase P inputs from the freshwater Everglades but is likely to increase TN inputs. Based on a nutrient budget of Florida Bay, both N and P inputs from the Gulf of Mexico greatly exceed inputs from the Everglades, as well as inputs from the atmosphere and the Florida Keys. We estimate that the freshwater Everglades contribute <3% of all P inputs and <12% of all N inputs to the bay. Evaluating the effect of ecosystem restoration efforts on Florida Bay requires greater understanding of the interactions of the bay with the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent mangrove ecosystems.     

Seasonal Alternation Between Groundwater Discharge and Benthic Coupling as Nutrient Sources in a Shallow Coastal Lagoon

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is now recognized as an important source of nutrients and freshwater to some coastal environments. We studied a shallow coastal lagoon (Little Lagoon, AL, USA) in the northern Gulf of Mexico that lacks riverine inputs but has been suspected to receive significant SGD. We observed persistent salinity gradients between the east and west ends of the lagoon and the pass connecting it to the Gulf of Mexico. Covariance between salinity in the lagoon and the groundwater tracer ²²²Rn indicated that SGD was responsible for the salinity gradients and is the primary source of freshwater to the lagoon. Cluster analysis of 246 biweekly samples based on temperature, salinity, and two proxies of SGD revealed two hydrographic regimes with different drivers for nutrient inputs. In samples characterized by high discharge and low temperatures (generally December–April), total nitrogen (TN) was negatively correlated with salinity, while total phosphorus (TP) was positively correlated with temperature. Total nitrogen in the groundwater was very high (0.36–4.80 mM) while total phosphorus was relatively low (0.3–2.3 μM), consistent with SGD as the source of TN during the high-discharge periods. In periods with low discharge and higher temperatures (approx. May–November), TN and TP had strong positive correlations with temperature and are inferred to originate from benthic efflux. Seasonal changes in nutrient stoichiometry in the lagoon water column also indicate an alternation between low TN/TP sediments and high TN/TP groundwater as the primary sources of nitrogen in this system.     

Texas Coastal Hypoxia Linked to Brazos River Discharge as Revealed by Oxygen Isotopes

Hypoxic conditions in the coastal waters off Texas (USA) were observed since the late 1970s, but little is known about the causes of stratification that contribute to hypoxia formation. Typically, this hypoxia is attributed to downcoast (southwestward) advection of waters from the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River system. Here, we present evidence for a hypoxic event on the inner shelf of Texas coincident with the presence of freshwater linked to high flow of the Brazos River in Texas. These conclusions are based on hydrographic observations and isotopic measurements of waters on the inner shelf near the Brazos River mouth. These data characterize the development, breakdown, and dispersal of a hypoxic event lasting from June through September 2007 off the Texas coast. Oxygen isotope compositions of shelf water indicate that (1) discharge from the Brazos River was the principal source of freshwater and water column stratification during the 2007 event, and (2) during low Brazos River discharge in 2008, freshwater on the Texas shelf was derived mainly from the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River System. Based on these findings, we conclude that the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River System is not the sole cause of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico; however, more data are needed to determine the relative influence of the Texas versus Mississippi rivers during normal and low flow conditions of Texas rivers.     

Economic linkages driving the potential response to nitrogen over-enrichment

Most public decisions ultimately have economic content. Decisions that deal with externalities, such as pollution, carry costs as well as benefits for society. Actions that mitigate nutrient over-enrichment in the Gulf of Mexico would require actions throughout the Mississippi River Basin resulting in both direct and indirect economic impacts. This paper describes and explains the economic linkages and trade-offs involved in actions that could be cost effective and meet a public goal of reducing nitrogen over-enrichment within the Mississippi River Basin. The impacts of different approaches that reduce the major source of nitrogen flows to the Gulf, nonpoint pollution from agriculture, are simulated for both source reduction the major source of nitrogen flows to the Gulf, nonpoint pollution from agriculture, are simulated for both source reduction and interception of nitrogen. Lessons learned include the fact that any one approach by itself has increasing marginal cost. The approaches considered have modest direct and indirect costs when only required to mitigate 20% to 25% of the nitrogen losses. Simultaneous multiple approaches appear even more attractive to induce only moderate negative impact. The impacts of mitigation are not just confined to the Mississippi River Basin but spread beyond the basin and are themselves influenced by external factors such as commodity prices and import and export markets for agricultural commodities. Success in reducing excess nitrogen flows will depend on institutional factors as well as technical efficacy. Finally, the nature of soil system sinks and the resulting long lead time likely before results might be apparent present a special obstacle to enlisting cooperation, assessing efficacy, and designing adaptive behavior.     

Transport of dissolved organic nitrogen in Mississippi River plume and Texas-Louisiana continental shelf near-surface waters

Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in near-surface (<20 m depth) waters of the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf is the predominant form of total dissolved nitrogen that is advected by the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River plume. Relatively high DON concentrations associated with low-salinity (<33 psu) waters throughout the year can be traced within the plume along the Texas-Louisiana inner shelf. DON concentrations throughout the shelf were significantly higher near the Mississippi-Atchafalaya outflow region relative to downstream inner Gulf shelf locations. Significant intercruise variations were also evident, with the highest concentrations during May 1992 and lower values in October 1992. At a fixed location off the Mississippi River outflow region DON concentration covaried inversely with salinity on time scales of hours to months, confirming that source water is a determining factor for variations of bulk DON concentrations in the region. Similar variations in upper water DON concentrations at different locations and seasons occurred in both plume and nonplume waters, which resembled the seasonal concentration changes of riverine nitrogen, and show that this pool is useful in tracing the influence of riverine-derived nitrogen on the overall nitrogen balance of the NW Gulf of Mexico’s continental shelf. Plume and nonplume DON concentrations deviated from mixing lines between riverine and oceanic endmembers, suggesting that plume waters may be a sink and nonplume waters may be a source of a labile fraction of DON in the region.     

Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models

Recent studies of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia suggest higher susceptibility to hypoxia in years after the 1980s. We used two simple mechanistic models and Bayesian estimation of their parameters and prediction uncertainty to explore the nature of this regime shift. Model estimates show increasing nutrient conversion efficiency since the 1980s, with lower DO concentrations and large hypoxic volumes as a result. In earlier work, we suggested a 35% reduction from the average 1980–1990 total nitrogen load would restore the Bay to hypoxic volumes of the 1950s–1970s. With Bayesian inference, our model indicates that, if the physical and biogeochemical processes prior to the 1980s resume, the 35% reduction would result in hypoxic volume averaging 2.7 km³ in a typical year, below the average hypoxic volume of 1950s–1970s. However, if the post-1980 processes persist the 35% reduction would result in much higher hypoxic volume averaging 6.0 km³. Load reductions recommended in the 2003 agreement will likely meet dissolved oxygen attainment goals if the Bay functions as it did prior to the 1980s; however, it may not reach those goals if current processes prevail.     

Impacts of Hypoxia on Zooplankton Spatial Distributions in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

The northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOMEX) was surveyed to examine the broad-scale spatial patterns and inter-relationships between hypoxia (<2?mg?L^?1 dissolved oxygen) and zooplankton biovolume. We used an undulating towed body equipped with sensors for conductivity, temperature, depth, oxygen, fluorescence, and an optical plankton counter to sample water column structure, oxygen, and zooplankton at high spatial resolution (1?m??vertical; 0.25?C1?km??horizontal). We contrast the distribution of zooplankton during summer surveys with different freshwater input, stratification, and horizontal and vertical extent of bottom-water hypoxia. Bottom-water hypoxia did not appear to influence the total amount of zooplankton biomass present in the water column or the areal integration of zooplankton standing stock in the NGOMEX region surveyed. However, where there were hypoxic bottom waters, zooplankton shifted their vertical distribution to the upper water column during the day where they normally would reside in deeper and darker waters. When bottom waters were normoxic (>2?mg?L^?1 dissolved oxygen), the daytime median depth of the water column zooplankton was on average 7?m deeper than the median depth of zooplankton in water columns with hypoxic bottom waters. A reduction in larger zooplankton when there were hypoxic bottom waters suggests that if zooplankton cannot migrate to deeper, darker water under hypoxic conditions, they may be more susceptible to size-selective predation by visual predators. Thus, habitat compression in the northern Gulf of Mexico due to hypoxic bottom water may have implications for trophic transfer by increasing the contact between predators and prey.     

Impacts of sea-level rise on deltas in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean: The importance of pulsing events to sustainability

In deltas, subsidence leads to a relative sea-level rise (RSLR) that is often much greater than eustatic rise alone. Because of high RSLR, deltaic wetlands will be affected early by an acceleration of eustatic sea-level rise. If there is sufficient vertical accretion, wetlands can continue to exist with RSLR; however, lack of sediment input eventually leads to excessive water logging and plant death. Areas with low tidal range, such as the Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico, are especially vulnerable to rising water levels because the elevational growth range of coastal vegetation is related to tide range. Reduction of suspended sediments in rivers and prevention of wetland flooding by river dikes and impoundments have reduced sediment input to Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico deltaic wetlands. This sediment deficit will become more important with an acceleration in sea-level rise from global warming. Most sediment input occurs during strong pulsing events such as river floods and storms, and management policies and decisions are especially designed to protect against such events. Management approaches must be reoriented to take advantage of pulsing events to nourish marsh surfaces with sediments. We hypothesize that deltas can be managed to withstand significant rates of sea-level rise by taking advantage of pulsing events leading to high sediment input, and that this type of management approach will enhance ecosystem functioning.     

Light hydrocarbons in Gulf of Mexico water: Sources and relation to structural highs

Analyses of Gulf of Mexico water samples indicate that methane arises from both biologic and thermal sources. Thermal generation of methane and other light hydrocarbons found in the water is demonstrated by: (1) the ratio of methane to ethane of less than 500 is below that expected for bacterial gases; (2) vertical profiles of hydrocarbon concentrations indicate multiple sources for methane, but not for ethane or propane; (3) the correlation between ethane, propane and butane is high indicating a common source, whereas methane correlates in only some areas suggesting multiple sources assumed to be bacterial and thermal; and (4) carbon isotope ratios. Hydrocarbons in the water result from seepage from the sea floor, and a relationship between hydrocarbons and fault systems can be observed. Petroleum production activities did not increase the hydrocarbon content of the non-surface water beyond that often found above petroliferous structures. To avoid surface contamination, analyses were made on water samples taken from near the sea floor. Special equipment for analyses was designed for the survey in the Gulf of Mexico offshore from Galveston, Texas, to Grand Isle, Louisiana, at water depths to 120 m.     

Seasonal Composition of Benthic Macroinfauna Exposed to Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Bottom-water hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico has increased in severity (duration, frequency, and intensity) since the 1970s and has impacted the less-mobile benthos ever since. From September 2003 to October 2004, the macrobenthic density, species richness, community composition, and vertical distribution were studied at a frequently hypoxic station, C6B (28°52.10′ N and 90°28.00′ W). The polychaete-dominated community was approximately three times less dense and diverse in post-hypoxic months compared to pre-hypoxic months. The lowest oxygen concentrations in July 2004 did not significantly affect the infaunal community as predicted; rather, the response was observed 1 month later after a longer, low-oxygen exposure. The opportunistic, hypoxia-tolerant polychaete, Paraprionospio pinnata, population increased in July 2004 when other common species decreased, thereby maintaining pre-hypoxic densities. Determining the duration and severity of hypoxia prior to sampling rather than at the time of sampling helps to better understand benthic community responses to hypoxia.     

Tephrochronology of the western Gulf of Mexico for the last 185,000 years

Tephra in 31 piston cores from the western Gulf of Mexico and 7 piston cores from the equatorial Pacific were analyzed by electron microprobe. Six ash layers in the western Gulf of Mexico were easily distinguished by TiO₂, FeO, and CaO contents and correlated by geochemistry in order to determine the distribution pattern for each ash layer. Correlation by geochemistry is an easier, more accurate method than biostratigraphic correlation; some of the tephras were miscorrelated by biostratigraphy. The six tephras were dated by geochemical identification in a piston core with oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and the ages are Y5 (30,000 yr B.P.), Y6 (65,000 yr B.P.), Y8 (84,000 yr B.P.), X2 (110,000 yr B.P.), W1 (136,000 yr B.P.), and W2 (185,000 yr B.P.). Data from this study corroborated correlations of the Y8 tephra in the western Gulf of Mexico with the D layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. None of the other five layers in the Gulf of Mexico, however, were found in the Pacific Ocean. The limited distribution of the Y5, Y6, X2, and W2 ash layers close to Mexico indicates possible sources in Mexico. Tephra from the late Pleistocene La Primavera pumice in Mexico, however, does not correlate with the marine tephra.