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1.
In recent years, measurements of total electron content (TEC) have gained importance with increasing demand for the GPS-based navigation applications in trans-ionospheric communications. To study the variation in ionospheric TEC, we used the data obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system which is in operation at SVNIT, Surat, India (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region. The data collected (for the low sunspot activity period from August 2008–December 2009) were used to study the diurnal, monthly, seasonal semi-annual and annual variations of TEC at Surat. It was observed that the diurnal variation at the region reaches its maximum value between 13:00 and 16:00 IST. The monthly average diurnal variations showed that the TEC maximizes during the equinox months followed by the winter months, and are lowest during the summer months. The ionospheric range delay to TEC for the primary GPS signal is 0.162 m per TECU. The diurnal variation in TEC shows a minimum to maximum variation of about 5 to 50 TECU (in current low sunspot activity periods). These TEC values correspond to range delay variations of about 1 to 9 m at Surat. These variations in the range delay will certainly increase in high sunspot activity periods. Detected TEC variations are also closely related to space weather characterizing quantities such as solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices.  相似文献   

2.
Two-dimensional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data during the time period from 00:00 on 2 July to 12:00 UT on 8 July 2013, which was 5 days before to 1 day after a deep earthquake at 18:35:30 on 7 July 2013 UT (Mw = 7.2) with a depth at about 378.8 km in Papua New Guinea, were examined by two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) to detect TEC precursor related to the earthquake because TEC precursors usually have shown up in earlier time periods. A TEC precursor was highly localized around the epicenter from 06:00 to 06:05 on 6 July, where its duration time was at least 5 minutes. Ionizing radiation radon gas release should be a possibility to cause the anomalous TEC fluctuation, e.g., electron density variation. The plasma might have large damping at that time to cause TEC fluctuation of short time, and the gas released with small amount in short time period, and 2DPCA could identify short time TEC fluctuation while the fluctuation lasted for a long time. Other background TEC anomalies caused by the geomagnetic storm, small earthquakes and non-earthquake activities, e.g., equatorial ionization anomaly resulted in the small principal eigenvalues, therefore the detection of TEC precursor was regardless of these background TEC anomalies.  相似文献   

3.
The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions.  相似文献   

4.
The goal of this research is to examine one-dimensional total electron content (TEC) data using principal component analysis (PCA) to search for total electron content (TEC) anomalies associated with large earthquakes in 24 h prior to nucleation. The characteristics of principal eigenvalues generated for TEC prior to 24 earthquakes of magnitude scale M?≥?5.0 and 6 lesser earthquakes of magnitude scale M?<?5 that occurred in Taiwan from 01 January 2000 to 31 December 2001 are examined. In an earlier paper, I was able to confirm the statistical findings of Liu et al. (J Geophys Res 111, 2006) that sparse earthquake-associated TEC anomalies existed in 5 days prior to the 12 large earthquakes they examined (Lin, Terr Atm Ocean Sci, 2010). In this paper, I wish to examine the subtlety of principal component analysis in detecting earthquake-associated TEC anomalies by examining if such precursors can be detected in 24 h prior to large earthquakes. Of the earthquakes examined, TEC anomalies given by clear extreme principal eigenvalues were evident within 24 h of nucleation for 21 of the 24 earthquakes of M?≥?5.0. After making allowance for the general status of background TEC, it is clear that these extreme principal eigenvalues are representative of earthquake-associated anomalies. For the smaller earthquakes (M?<?5), it was not possible to differentiate earthquake-associated anomalies from background effects on TEC status. These new findings confirm the validity of PCA in searching for earthquake-associated TEC anomalies and show that it is subtle enough to detect TEC anomalies within 24 h leading to a large earthquake. If this approach continues to prove successful, it could theoretically be used in real-time prediction of large earthquakes through early detection of earthquake-associated TEC anomalies.  相似文献   

5.
The goal of this study was to determine whether principal component analysis (PCA) can be used to process GPS ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data on a monthly basis to identify early earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. PCA is applied to GPS (mean value of a month) ionospheric TEC records collected from the Japan GEONET system to detect TEC anomalies associated with 10 earthquakes in Japan (M?≥?6.0) from 2006 to 2007. According to the results, PCA was able to discriminate clear TEC anomalies in the months when all 10 earthquakes occurred. After reviewing the months when no M?≥?6.0 earthquake occurred but the geomagnetic storm activity was present, it is possible that the maximal principal eigenvalues PCA returned for these 10 earthquakes indicate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. Previously, PCA has been used to discriminate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies recognized by other researchers who found that a statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies could be established in the 5 days before earthquake nucleation and in 24 h before earthquake; however, since PCA uses the characteristics of principal eigenvalues to determine earthquake-related TEC anomalies, it is possible to show that such anomalies existed earlier than this 5-day statistical window. In this paper, this is shown through the application of PCA to one-dimensional TEC data relating to the earthquake of 17 February 2007 (M?=?6.0). The analysis is applied to daily TEC and reveals a large principal eigenvalue (representative of an earthquake-associated anomaly) for 02 February, 15 days before the 17 February earthquake.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging is examined on the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal to determine the optimum period and timescale of nudging. Six TCs (SIDR: November 13–16, 2007; NARGIS: April 29–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008; AILA: May 23–26, 2009; LAILA: May 18–21, 2010; JAL: November 04–07, 2010) were simulated with a doubly nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km in the inner domain. In the control run for each cyclone, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts at 0.5° resolution are used for initial and boundary conditions. In the FDDA experiments available surface, upper air observations obtained from NCEP Atmospheric Data Project (ADP) data sets were used for assimilation after merging with the first guess through objective analysis procedure. Analysis nudging experiments with different nudging periods (6, 12, 18, and 24 h) indicated a period of 18 or 24 h of nudging during the pre-forecast stage provides maximum impact on simulations in terms of minimum track and intensity forecasts. To determine the optimum timescale of nudging, two cyclone cases (NARGIS: April 28–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008) were simulated varying the inverse timescales as 1.0e?4 to 5.0e?4 s?1 in steps of 1.0e?4 s?1. A positive impact of assimilation is found on the simulated characteristics with a nudging coefficient of either 3.0e?4 or 4.0e?4 s?1 which corresponds to a timescale of about 1 h for nudging dynamic (u,v) and thermodynamical (t,q) fields.  相似文献   

7.
喜马拉雅北部地区春季大气特征及日变化分析   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
利用珠峰北部地区的观测资料和AIRS卫星遥感资料,分析了喜马拉雅北部地区的大气日变化及其垂直结构.结果发现喜马拉雅北部地区气温日变化具有明显的单峰单谷型特征,一天气温最高值出现在18:00左右,最低值出现在早上7:00~9:00.风速的日变化呈现单峰型特征.气压的平均日变化呈双峰双谷型分布特征,气压极大值出现在2:00和12:00,气压极小值出现在6:00和19:00时,其中19:00出现气压最小值.感热通量、潜热通量的平均日变化和气温日变化具有一致性,春季感热通量大于潜热通量.净辐射通量的日变化特征是单峰型特征,每日最大值出现的时间比感热通量及潜热通量的最大值出现的时间早2个小时.引起高原地区日变化剧烈有2个主要原因:一是高原地区大气柱的质量较小,对太阳辐射的削弱较小,且相同的辐射加热和冷却可使较少大气产生较大温度变化;二是高原地区是大气云光学厚度较小的区域,由此可使地面在日间接受较强烈的太阳短波辐射而增温较大,在夜间又接受较小的大气长波逆辐射而降温较大.  相似文献   

8.
A new model has been developed for track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones. The model utilizes environmental steering flow using the forecasts from a high-resolution global model and the effect due to earth??s rotation (the beta-effect) to determine the future movement of cyclone. A new approach based on vertical profile of potential vorticity is used to determine weights for different vertical levels for computation of mean steering current. Despite the fact that the model is based on the dynamical framework, the operational cost and time for running the model is only a fraction of what is needed by a normal numerical weather prediction model. This new approach will enhance flexibility in defining the initial position of the cyclone in the model, and also, it is possible to create a large ensemble of predicted tracks to assess the impact of the uncertainty of initial cyclone position on the predicted tracks. The performance of the model for ten cyclones, viz. GONU (02?C08 Jun, 2007), SIDR (11?C16 November, 2007), NARGIS (27 Apr?C04 May, 2008), RASHMI (25?C27 October, 2008) KHAI-MUK (14?C16 November, 2008), NISHA (25?C27 November, 2008), SEVEN (04?C08 December, 2008), BIJLI (14?C18 April, 2009), AILA (23?C26 May, 2009), and PHYAN (09?C11 November, 2009), have been tested in the present study. The forecast errors of the present model have been computed with respect to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track analysis positions. The forecast skill improvement (mean of ten cyclones) of the model with respect to the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) statistical model varies from 7 to 67?% between 12 and 72?h.  相似文献   

9.
河套干旱地区夏季边界层结构特征观测分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
崔洋  常倬林  桑建人  左河疆 《冰川冻土》2015,37(5):1257-1267
利用2013年夏季7月爱尔达K/LLX802J型机动式边界层风廓线雷达获取的三维风场资料和银川站高空气象探测资料,对河套干旱地区夏季边界层日变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:爱尔达K/LLX802J型机动式风廓线雷达能较好的反映并分辨出夏季河套干旱地区边界层内大气湍流和风场的演变过程.夏季7月河套干旱地区边界层高度白天平均为2127.2 m,夜间平均为1760.7 m,白天边界层高度比夜间平均高366.5 m.河套干旱区夏季地表非绝热加热对边界层的影响主要集中在800 m以下,800~2000 m高度边界层则主要受昼夜交替和大尺度天气系统的影响.夏季7月河套干旱地区边界层风速在300 m以下随高度增加而增大,离地500 m以下边界层易在北京时间07:00-11:00和18:00-21:00时段发生风速切变;300 m以下边界层白天盛行西南偏南风、夜间盛行南风,300~2000 m高度边界层白天和夜间均盛行东南风;离地300 m以下边界层易在夜间21:00-23:00时出现风向切变.夏季7月白天河套干旱地区边界层大气垂直速度在300 m高度以下随高度增加而增大,由0.3 m·s-1增大到0.6 m·s-1,夜间边界层大气垂直速度在200 m高度以下随高度增大而增大;300 m高度以上边界层大气垂直速度无论昼夜随高度变化均较小.  相似文献   

10.
A field experiment was conducted from 2 May 2010 to 1 May 2012 in the Gurbantunggut Desert, the second largest desert in China, to investigate saltation activity and its threshold velocity, and their relations with atmospheric and soil conditions. The results showed that saltation activity occurred more frequently during 08:00–20:00 Local Standard Time in spring and summer, with air temperatures between 20.0 and 29.0 °C, water vapor pressures between 0.6 and 0.9 kPa, soil temperatures between 25.0 and 30.0 °C, and a soil moisture lower than 0.04 m3/m3. At 2 m height, the saltation threshold velocity varied between 11.1 and 13.9 m/s, with a mean of 12.5 m/s. Threshold velocity showed clear seasonal variations in the following sequence: spring (11.7 m/s) < autumn (12.7 m/s) < summer (13.6 m/s). Affected by soil conditions, aeolian sand transport was weak, with an average annual aeolian sand that transported across a section (1.0 m × 2.0 m) of less than 6.0 kg.  相似文献   

11.
Tsunami-like intense sea-level oscillations, associated with atmospheric activity (meteorological tsunamis), are common in the Great Lakes and on the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, and derechos. “Derecho” is a rapidly moving line of convectively induced intense thunder storm fronts producing widespread damaging winds and squalls. The derecho of June 29–30, 2012 devastatingly propagated from western Iowa to the Atlantic coast, passing more than 1,000 km and producing wind gusts up to 35 m/s. This derecho induced pronounced seiche oscillations in Lake Michigan, Chesapeake Bay, and along the US Atlantic coast. Sea-level records from the updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauge network, together with the NOAA and automated surface-observing system air pressure and wind records, enabled us to examine physical properties and temporal/spatial variations of the generated waves. Our findings indicate that the generation mechanisms of extreme seiches in the basins under study are significantly different: energetic winds play the main role in seiche formation in Chesapeake Bay; atmospheric pressure disturbances are most important for the Atlantic coast; and the combined effect of pressure oscillations and wind is responsible for pronounced events in the Great Lakes. The “generation coefficient,” which is the ratio of the maximum observed sea-level height and the height of air pressure disturbance, was used to map the sea-level response and to identify “hot spots” for this particular event, i.e., harbors and bays with amplified seiche oscillations. The Froude number, Fr = U/c, where U is the speed of the atmospheric disturbance and c is the long-wave speed, is the key parameter influencing the water response to specific atmospheric disturbances; the maximum response was found for those regions and disturbance parameters for which Fr ~1.0.  相似文献   

12.
13.
长江源区小冬克玛底冰川区积雪消融特征及对气候的响应   总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3  
2005年使用花杆法在小冬克玛底冰川上进行了两轮积雪融化观测,结果显示:6月中、下旬,冰川区积雪消融基本与气温同步变化,但到7月上旬积雪消融发生了变化:其融化时间提前了2 h,在12:00融化量就达到一定高度;融化量大,日平均融化量较6月中下旬大0.71 mm水当量;最大积雪融化量出现时间滞后于气温最高时间约2 h,于18:00达到最大值.雪坑雪层剖面真实记录了积雪积累与融化过程中的雪层变化.积雪融化除受温度影响之外,还与风速等其它因素有密切关系.温度越高,融化量越大;风速与积雪融化量的关系相对复杂.积雪融化量只与1.5 m高度风速有关.在2h尺度上,近地面风速大,积雪融化量也大;在日尺度上,风速与积雪融化量的关系较好,但在两个观测时段表现出不同的相关关系.研究区积雪量很少,受昼夜气温变化与下垫面状况的影响,积雪融水几乎不产生径流,对河川径流的影响程度极小.  相似文献   

14.
In recent years, the Neoproterozoic Huqf Supergroup formations of the Oman Salt Basins have been the target for oil exploration. The present study maps the surficial exposure of the Huqf Supergroup in and around Khufai Dome of the Huqf area in the Sultanate of Oman using low-cost multi-spectral remotely sensed satellite data and image processing methods such as decorrelation stretching, principal component analysis (PCA) and spectral angle mapper (SAM), as alternative to expensive and time-consuming tools, which have the capability and potential to be used by geoscientists for oil exploration. In this research, the study of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) spectral bands 8, 3 and 1 by decorrelation stretching well discriminated the Masirah Bay, the Khufai, the Shuram and the Buah Formations of the Nafun Group, the source rocks of Huqf Supergroup with the Quaternary deposits. The analysis of visible and near infrared–shortwave infrared spectral bands of ASTER by PCA clearly showed the occurrence and spatial distribution of such formations in the RGB principal component images (R:PC1, G:PC2, B:PC3). The spatial distributions of such formations are assessed by confusion matrix after using maximum likelihood (ML), spectral angle mapper (SAM) and spectral information divergence (SID) algorithms. The matrix of ML algorithm has provided the best overall accuracy of 92.93% and kappa coefficient of 0.92. The minerals of the formations were detected by SAM. Further, the detection of such mineral groups was confirmed through the ASTER thermal infrared (TIR) spectral indices image developed using the carbonate index (CI), quartz index (QI), and mafic index (MI). All results of image analyses are evaluated in the field and laboratory studies. The study also evaluates the satellite data and image processing methods for the formations of Jabal Akhdar, the equivalent formations of the Khufai Dome, to show the sensor capability and the use of the image processing methods to study the source rocks. The results of the study provided similar discriminations comparable to the Khufai Dome. Therefore, the data and the techniques are recommended to the exploration geologists for use in similar regions of the world.  相似文献   

15.
In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.  相似文献   

16.
This study compares the thermal bioclimatic conditions recorded at Bursa (100 m) and Uluda? (1878 m) meteorological stations at 7:00, 14:00 and 21:00 LST (local standard time) between 1975 and 2006, by using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), which is calculated from meteorological parameters. The effects of elevation-dependent environmental and atmospheric conditions on thermal perception (i.e., PET) values were analyzed and assessed. The analysis showed that the mean annual difference between PET values in Bursa and Uluda? was 12 ºC. The difference was lower in winter (9 ºC PET) and higher in summer (15 ºC PET). The highest difference between PET values occurred in the afternoon (16 ºC PET) and the lowest difference occurred in the morning (8.4 ºC PET). The differences occur as a result of high altitude and higher surface albedo due to snowfall, which leads to lower PET values and thus to less comfortable thermal conditions. The mean PET values of Bursa and Uluda? decrease 0.67 ºC every 100 m.  相似文献   

17.
Based on data measured by eddy covariance (EC) and the Kormann and Meixner model, footprints of the flux of desert shrub ecosystems were analyzed. The contributions of different land types during the growing season in Fukang station in 2007 were estimated. Spatial distributions of footprint source areas were evaluated to reveal the relative flux contribution to the total flux over the entire observation period. The results indicate that: (1) The applied footprint model provides accurate footprint estimates and the flux data can be used for the shrub flux estimations. The flux contribution from shrub land showed that the observed flux data were able to represent seasonal change in the flux of desert shrub ecosystems. The flux contribution rate of shrub was highest during May to July between 10:00 and 18:00 h. (2) The location of the EC system in Fukang is appropriate for monitoring shrub flux. (3) Footprint analysis is necessary because it assesses the contribution of the target land-use type to the total flux for any user-defined period. The flux contribution rate was affected significantly by wind direction and the source region.  相似文献   

18.
Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9?km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5?Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78?h and 72?h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12?h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm.  相似文献   

19.
利用天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川2001-2005年消融期的水文气象实测资料,分析了河源区径流量的昼、夜变化特征,并对径流变化过程与气温、降水等关系进行了相关分析.结果表明:从5月份消融初期开始,昼、夜平均流量都较小,随着强消融期的到来,迅速增大,到消融期后期(8月份末),又逐渐变小.就年际相同月份昼(夜)平均流量相比而言...  相似文献   

20.
The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14:00 o'clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of ~104 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi'an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

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