黄河龙门段商周转折时期的古洪水事件及气候背景

通过野外观察研究,在黄河中游晋陕峡谷龙门段乡宁-韩城大桥西端支沟内,发现了全新世古洪水滞流沉积物.通过野外观察和室内实验分析,证明它们是黄河特大洪水悬移质泥沙在高水位滞流环境下的沉积物,记录了黄河晋陕峡谷段一期4次特大古洪水事件.通过地层学对比分析和光释光测年,确定这4次洪水发生在全新世中期-晚期转折阶段,即我国历史上商代末期-西周初期的气候突变转型期.利用"古洪水滞流沉积物厚度含沙量法"恢复古洪水洪峰水位,运用HEC-RAS模型估算出4次古洪水事件洪峰流量介于46280~48800 m~3/s之间.这些成果为黄河中游地区的防洪减灾、水资源开发利用、流域生态环境综合治理等方面提供了可靠的超长尺度水文数据.这为深入理解黄河流域水文系统对于全球变化的响应规律提供了新的证据.     

黄河中游北洛河宜君段全新世特大洪水及其气候背景研究

通过对黄河中游北洛河的野外考察,在宜君基岩峡谷全新世风成黄土-土壤剖面中发现三层古洪水滞流沉积物(SWD).野外观察和室内实验分析,证明它们是北洛河特大洪水悬移质泥沙在高水位滞流环境下的沉积物.这些古洪水滞流沉积层夹在全新世中期古土壤之内,其每一层记录了一期特大洪水事件.利用古水文学方法恢复了古洪水洪峰水位和流量,确定...     

黄河上游积石峡古地震堰塞溃决事件与喇家遗址异常古洪水灾害

黄河上游积石峡史前时期发生了一次严重的堰塞事件,形成了水体达11.71×10^8m^3的古堰塞湖;山体崩塌是黄河发生堰塞的直接原因,而地震则很可能是触发山体崩塌的关键因素.堰塞湖在形成后不久即发生了部分溃决,造成了洪峰近35000m3·s^-1的异常洪水,相当于该河段万年一遇洪水流量的3倍多;残余堰塞湖则因泥沙的逐渐淤积而消亡.年代学研究表明,这一堰塞及溃决事件发生在大约1730B.C.,与其下游25km处黄河岸边喇家遗址毁灭的年代一致.根据该遗址在很短的时间内先后毁灭于地震和洪水,可以推测积石峡黄河古堰塞溃决事件与喇家遗址的毁灭存在密切的联系.流量-水位关系的计算则表明,黄河上游万年一遇的洪水不能淹没喇家遗址,而积石峡古堰塞湖的溃决洪水则完全可以将喇家遗址毁灭.因此,毁灭喇家遗址的异常洪水并不是气候变化造成的洪水,而是由强烈地震所诱发的堰塞湖溃决洪水;也就是说,地震及其次生堰塞湖溃决洪水共同毁灭了喇家这一齐家文化的重要遗址.这一发现和研究对认识史前人地关系具有重要的意义.     

巢湖杭埠河流域湖相沉积物多指标揭示的全新世以来环境演变

在巢湖杭埠河流域中的古湖盆中心——三河圩区获取28.6 m长的湖相岩芯（SZK1507孔）,利用AMS¹⁴C测年技术建立可靠的地层年代序列,通过对SZK1507孔738 cm以上段湖相沉积物平均粒径、磁化率、总氮（TN）、总有机碳（TOC）及C/N的综合分析,高分辨率重建了巢湖杭埠河流域全新世以来的古环境演变过程.结果表明,本区域的环境变化过程可以分为4个阶段,阶段Ⅰ（约10050—9700 cal.a B.P.）与阶段Ⅲ（约9250—5300 cal.a B.P.）气候较为湿润,巢湖水位较高,平均粒径、磁化率值较低,TN、TOC、C/N也偏低;阶段Ⅱ（约9700—9250 cal.a B.P.）与阶段Ⅳ（约5300 cal.a B.P.以来）气候干燥,巢湖水量减少,水位降低,平均粒径、磁化率值、TN、TOC、C/N均较高.一些全球范围内显著发生的气候突变事件在SZK1507孔沉积记录中也有体现,如9.3、8.2和4.2 ka B.P.事件等.将巢湖杭埠河流域10000 cal.a B.P.以来的平均粒径、磁化率、TN、TOC、C/N沉积记录与全新世以来的北纬30°夏季太阳辐射量、太阳黑子数、火山喷发对大气中硫酸盐含量贡献率等进行对比,发现巢湖杭埠河流域全新世气候突变事件主要受控于北半球夏季太阳辐射量变化、太阳活动以及火山活动等因素,并与它们之间复杂的响应机制有关.     

全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.     

叠溪地震次生水灾的规模、范围、水文参数与分段特征

根据最新发现的历史资料和现场测量数据,对1933年叠溪地震次生水灾作了进一步的研究。研究认为,此次水灾是岷江上游地区近120年以来规模最大的一次洪灾,其受灾范围北起茂县叠溪,南至新津县,可以分为差异明显的两段——峡谷段和平原段。它的洪水水位高、洪峰流量大、洪峰传播速度快、持续时间特别短,具有溃坝型洪水的典型特征。     

MIS-3晚期以来乌伦古湖古湖相沉积记录的初步研究

通过对现代乌伦古湖附近出露的古湖相沉积剖面的AMS~(14)C测年,粒度、总有机碳、总有机氮以及碳酸盐等环境代用指标的分析及其与全新世钻孔沉积记录的对比研究,结果发现:乌伦古湖在MIS-3晚期的33600-22500 cal a BP以及冰后期至早中全新世的16500-6500 cal a BP期间,维持着湖相沉积环境,湖面约比现在湖面高40 m.33600-22500 cal a BP的MIS-3晚期,气候相对温暖,乌伦古湖呈现高湖面特征,湖泊沉积物来源以流水搬运为主;22500-16500 cal a BP的末次冰期冰盛期,气候寒冷干燥,湖泊沉积物来源以风力搬运为主;16500-6500 cal a BP的冰后期以及早、中全新世期间,气候回暖,湖泊沉积物主要来源于河流径流作用.6500-5500 cal a BP,受高温干旱事件的影响,湖面收缩、水位剧降,除沉积中心外的其它钻孔位置出现沉积中断.5500 cal a BP后气候转冷变湿,湖泊重新恢复到现在的状态.乌伦古湖MIS-3晚期以来的古湖相沉积环境变化及其反映的古气候万年尺度上的干湿变化与周边区域气候环境变化记录有很好的一致性,响应了区域环境变化和全球气候突变事件.季风和西风的强度消长变化及其引起的环流条件改变以及温度变化引起的蒸发效应可能是区域气候环境变化的主要原因.这一古湖相沉积记录的研究可为MIS-3晚期以来北疆地区的古湖泊演化以及长时间尺度上西风和季风环流相互关系及其影响区的气候环境演化提供地质证据.     

临泽断裂新活动特征初步研究

临泽断裂在地貌上可见3条断层陡坎,总体走向NNW,最长约8 km,东侧和中间陡坎主体倾向E,西侧陡坎倾向W。①利用差分GPS对3条断层陡坎进行了详细的测量,发现临泽断层陡坎较低,局部发育多级断层陡坎,坡角较缓,高度几十厘米至1米多;②在临泽断裂上选取4个探槽剖面进行古地震分析、样品采集和年代测试,发现东侧和中间的断层陡坎为正断层所控制,西侧的断层陡坎为逆断层所控制;③探槽开挖揭露出晚更新世晚期以来,临泽断裂上发生过4次古地震事件,时间分别为(8 895±125)a B.P.之前、(7 245±75)a B.P.～(6 190±20)a B.P.、(5120±20)a B.P.～(4.8±0.5)ka和(2 550±50)a B.P.～(2 326±64)a;④全新世以来可以确定3次事件,较早一次事件与榆木山北缘断裂上较早一次古地震事件时间比较吻合,说明临泽断裂可能是榆木山断裂向河西走廊内部继续活动的延伸;最后一次古地震事件的离逝时间约为2 500 a,表明临泽断裂全新世活动一直比较强烈。     

青藏高原东北缘热水-日月山断裂带热水段古地震初步研究

通过遥感影像解译和详细的野外填图,获得了热水-日月山断裂带热水断裂段的断错地貌,其水系右旋断错量为140～940m.沿断裂带的探槽开挖,揭示距今9645±220 a B.P,热水段曾发生一次古地震事件;结合前人的研究结果,认为热水-日月山断裂带热水断裂段上古地震复发间隔约3365 a,全新世以来的倾滑速率为0.03 mm/a.热水-日月山断裂带上已揭露出3次古地震事件,分别为9865±40 a B.P～9425±35 aB.P,6280±120 a B.P和2220±360 a B.P,复发间隔为3500 a左右,由于该断裂段最近一次古地震事件距今已接近2220年,与其复发间隔3365 a年相比尚有一段时间,但考虑到古地震事件的不确定性和年代样品的误差,初步推断热水-日月山断裂带热水段的地震危险性不大,但不排除有中强地震的可能性.     

基于SWAT模型的淮河上游流域设计洪水修订

变化环境下洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,引发基于统计原理计算的设计洪水可靠性下降,亟需开展非一致性条件下的设计洪水修订研究.以淮河上游流域为研究区域,运用Pettitt检验法和滑动t检验法综合检测年最大洪峰流量序列突变点,在此基础上,采用SWAT分布式水文模型对变异前的洪峰与洪量序列进行还现,利用径流深的模拟结果修订设计洪水,并对修订后的洪水序列进行频率分析.结果表明:(1)淮河上游息县和淮滨站年最大洪峰流量呈现不显著的减小趋势,王家坝站则表现出不显著增加趋势,1991年为各站年最大洪峰流量序列的突变点;(2) 3个水文站率定期和验证期的确定性系数(R2)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)均满足适用性要求,其中流域出口王家坝站率定期R2、NSE分别为0.77和0.79、验证期分别为0.72和0.74,模拟精度较高;(3)淮河上游流域洪水设计值较修订前略有减小,其中,洪峰流量减小幅度平均值在3.3%～6.1%之间,淮滨站的减小幅度最大;不同时段洪量的减小幅度平均值在1.4%～2.7%之间,整体修订幅度小于洪峰流量的修订幅度,并且洪量的时段越长,修订幅度越小;随着重现期的增大,各洪水指标的修订幅度逐渐减小.本研究对于变化环境下的淮河流域水利工程规划和防洪减灾具有重要意义.     

Palaeoflood hydrology of the Salt river,Arizona

Geomorphic evidence along bedrock-confined reaches of the Salt River in east-central Arizona provides a record of the river's largest flood events. Fine-grained flood slackwater deposits accumulated at channel margin irregularities several metres above the low-flow channel. Discharges associated with flow events responsible for the deposits were estimated by computer flow modelling. These estimates document flood magnitudes in excess of gauged historic streamflows. Relative and radiocarbon dating suggest that a flood record in excess of 600 y is preserved in the slackwater sequences. A prominent flood scar cut into grussy hillslope soils allows the extension of the prehistoric flood record to several thousand years. A maximum discharge estimate of 4600 m³s^?1 affixed to the flood scar represents the largest flood event in the record, and is given a minimum recurrence interval of 1000–2000 y. The 1952 flood is the largest historic flow event experienced along the study reach and is estimated at 2900 m³s^?1. Two palaeoflood events preserved in the slackwater stratigraphy exceed the 1952 event, and are given recurrence intervals of 300 and 600 y. The latter flood event had an estimated discharge of 3200 m³s^?1. It is apparent that discharge estimates affixed to these infrequent, large-magnitude flood events approach a maximum with decreased probabilities (large recurrence intervals). This suggests that a physical limit on discharge may exist within the Salt River drainage basin and is perhaps directly related to drainage basin size.     

The historical and palaeoflood record of Katherine river,northern Australia: evaluating the likelihood of extreme discharge events in the context of the 1998 flood

The discharge regimes of the large rivers of northern Australia are characterized by the occurrence of extreme flood events with far‐reaching environmental and societal impacts. In January 1998 the largest flood ever recorded on the Katherine River, northern Australia, resulted in widespread inundation and resultant damage to the town of Katherine. The occurrence of the flood emphasized the unreliability of the then available flood probability estimates and prompted a palaeoflood approach to estimate the recurrence interval of the event. The location of Katherine is ideal for such a study, as the town is located immediately downstream from Katherine Gorge, which provides the necessary bedrock‐confined channel required for such an approach. In addition, previous work in Katherine Gorge had demonstrated that the gorge sections hold suitable deposits for palaeoflood stage reconstruction. The results of the present study show that at least two flow events with discharges similar to the 1998 flood have occurred within the last 600 years, and that high‐magnitude floods are a general feature of the discharge record of the Katherine River over the last c. 2000 years. Furthermore, because the study was undertaken within a few months of the occurrence of the 1998 flood, it provided the opportunity to evaluate the previously obtained flood discharge estimates and draw attention to the general uncertainties associated with palaeoflood studies. Our results emphasize that palaeoflood stage estimates based on slackwater deposits need to be treated as conservative estimates only. More specifically, with respect to the 1998 event, our study demonstrates that the controls of flood peak were more complex than simply flood routing through the gorge sections. It is clear that the areas downstream from Katherine Gorge made an important contribution to the flood peak of the 1998 event. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene flood histories in south‐western USA

River basins in south‐western USA are some of the most extensively studied arid land fluvial systems in the world. Since the early 1960s their hydro‐climatic histories have been reconstructed from the analysis of alluvial cut‐and‐fill cycles, while from the late 1970s there have been investigations of slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators for large floods in stable‐boundary bedrock reaches. However, no studies have regionally integrated Holocene fluvial histories from these two different types of fluvial environments. The current study combines the alluvial archive with flood records from bedrock reaches to generate a probability‐based 12,000 year record of flooding in south‐western USA. Using more than 700 ¹⁴C‐dated fluvial units, the analysis produces a high resolution (centennial) flood record. Seven episodes of increased flooding occurred at 11,250–10,400, 8800–8350, 8230–7600, 6700–5700, 5600–4820, 4550–3320 and 2000–0 cal. BP. Bedrock reaches are found to record more frequent floods during the middle to late Holocene, while in alluvial rivers more flood units are dated to the early and middle Holocene. These differences are primarily the result of selective preservation with alluvial reaches tending to erode during periods characterised by very large floods. Episodes of major Holocene flooding recorded in slackwater deposits within bedrock systems correspond with periods of increased precipitation in the region and lower temperatures. In contrast, within alluvial rivers above‐average flooding probabilities, as well as regionally extensive channel entrenchment episodes, match with reduced annual precipitation and lower temperatures. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the value of the Holocene fluvial archive for reconstructing regional, short‐term hydro‐climatic change in south‐western USA. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extracting palaeoflood data from coarse‐grained Pleistocene river terrace archives: an example from SE Spain

Field‐based palaeoflood event reconstruction has the potential to contribute to the development of our understanding of long‐term landscape evolution. However, the reconstruction of past flow event histories (magnitude and frequency) over long‐term (Quaternary) timescales is fraught with difficulties. Here we make a preliminary exploration of some of the practicalities of flood reconstruction from fluvial terrace archives using commonly available sedimentological and geomorphological observations from a field perspective. We utilize Manning and palaeostage indicators to reconstruct historic events that can be used as benchmarks for a lesser used competence based approach, which is applied to coarse‐grained strath terrace deposits. We evaluate the results against gauged records for extreme and catastrophic events that affected the same region in 1973 and 2012. The findings suggest that the competence approach is most effectively applied to terrace deposits if the channel geometry is taken into account when sampling both in cross‐section and in longitudinal section and calibrated against the sedimentology for palaeo‐flow depth. Problems can arise where constrictive channel geometries allow boulder jams to develop, acting as sediment traps for the coarsest material and leading to downstream ‘boulder starvation’. Useful sites to target for palaeoflood reconstruction, therefore, would be upstream of such constrictive reaches where the coarsest transportable bedload has been effectively trapped. Sites to avoid would be downflow, where the deposited material would poorly represent palaeoflood competence. Underestimation from maximum boulder preservation and limited section exposure issues would appear to outweigh possible overestimation concerns related to fluid density and unsteady flow characteristics such as instantaneous acceleration forces. Flood data derived from river terrace deposits suggests that basal terrace geometries and coarse boulder lags common to many terrace sequences are likely the result of extreme flow events which are subsequently filled by lesser magnitude flood events, in this environmental setting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汉江中下游水华防控生态调度研究

汉江中下游1992-2021年冬春季节共计暴发了十余次大规模水华事件,水生态安全和饮用水安全频繁受到威胁.基于历次水华发生情况,分析总结了汉江中下游水华特征和暴发成因,根据水华与水文过程响应关系研究提出了抑制水华的关键指标及其调控阈值,构建了汉江中下游水利工程联合生态调度方案,明确了抑制水华的生态调度方式和调度持续时间...     

汉江上游干流和秦岭南麓典型支流的底栖动物群落特征及水质生物评价

汉江上游是丹江口水库的水源区,其生态环境状况对保障汉江全流域及南水北调中线生态安全起着举足轻重的作用.本研究于2017年11月和2018年4月对汉江上游干流及源于秦岭南麓的5条典型支流开展了系统调查,旨在摸清汉江上游干支流的底栖动物群落特征,以及评价其水质状况.共采集到大型底栖动物240种,其中水生昆虫209种,软体动物13种,环节动物9种,其他类群9种.其中四节蜉Baetis sp.在各条河流中均为优势种,此外其他优势种还有拟细裳蜉Paraleptophlebia sp.、细蜉Caenis sp.、扁蜉Heptagenia sp.、花翅蜉Baetiella sp.、直突摇蚊Orthocladius sp.、纹石蛾Hydropsyche sp.、蜉蝣Ephemera sp.、带肋蜉Cincticostella sp.、高翔蜉Epeorus sp.、似波摇蚊Sympotthastia sp.和真开摇蚊Eukiefferiella sp..从各类群的密度来看,水生昆虫在汉江及五条支流中均占有绝对优势,占总密度的90.8%～98.9%,而在生物量上,除汉江干流中软体动物占绝对优势外,水生昆虫在各支流中均占绝对优势,占总生物量的47.0%～98.9%.就功能摄食类群的密度而言,直接收集者在汉江干支流中均为最主要功能摄食类群,而从生物量方面来看则表现出差异性,捕食者是金水河和旬河中最主要功能摄食类群,刮食者为汉江干流和月河中最主要功能摄食类群,直接收集者是金钱河中最主要功能摄食类群,滤食者为湑水河中最主要功能摄食类群.冗余分析结果表明,流速、总磷和电导率为影响汉江干支流底栖动物分布的关键环境因子.采用底栖动物生物指数(BI)和Shannon-Wiener指数进行水质生物评价,结果显示除汉江的极个别断面、湑水河和月河下游及旬河的中下游河段处于轻-中度污染状态外,其他调查河段均处于清洁状态.本研究结果可为汉江上游流域生态管理和科学保护提供依据.     

长江中游地区洪泛沉积物与正常河流沉积物磁组构特征对比研究

在地层剖面中,洪泛沉积物与正常的河道沉积物的沉积学特征非常相似,仅靠沉积学特征很难将两者区分. 为了识别古洪灾事件,因而从环境磁学角度建立两种沉积物的识别标志是非常必要和有意义的. 本文通过对1998年长江黣洲湾溃口扇及其附近的长江现代河漫滩沉积物进行磁组构参数测量和对比分析,并结合长江下游河漫滩沉积物的磁组构参数特征,揭示出长江中游正常河流沉积物与河流溃口沉积物的磁组构参数特征具有明显的不同,并且它们与沉积时的沉积环境有着密切的关系. 因此,对长江中游地区沉积物磁组构参数的测试及磁化率各向异性量值椭球体形态的研究,是目前分辨洪泛沉积物和正常的河道沉积物的一个较有效的方法.     

1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探

长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.