Application of Importance Sampling Method in Sliding Failure Simulation of Caisson Breakwaters

It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and N histories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.     

Hybrid <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis>-order Lagrangian interpolation Eulerian-Lagrangian method for salinity calculation

The Eulerian-Lagrangian method (ELM) has been used by many ocean models as the solution of the advection equation, but the numerical error caused by interpolation imposes restriction on its accuracy. In the present study, hybrid N-order Lagrangian interpolation ELM (LiELM) is put forward in which the N-order Lagrangian interpolation is used at first, then the lower order Lagrangian interpolation is applied in the points where the interpolation results are abnormally higher or lower. The calculation results of a step-shaped salinity advection model are analyzed, which show that higher order (N=3-8) LiELM can reduce the mean numerical error of salinity calculation, but the numerical oscillation error is still significant. Even number order LiELM makes larger numerical oscillation error than its adjacent odd number order LiELM. Hybrid N-order LiELM can remove numerical oscillation, and it significantly reduces the mean numerical error when N is even and the current is in fixed direction, while it makes less effect on mean numerical error when N is odd or the current direction changes periodically. Hybrid odd number order LiELM makes less mean numerical error than its adjacent even number order LiELM when the current is in the fixed direction, while the mean numerical error decreases as N increases when the current direction changes periodically, so odd number of N may be better for application. Among various types of Hybrid N-order LiELM, the scheme reducing N-order directly to 1st-order may be the optimal for synthetic selection of accuracy and computational efficiency.     

Simulating the Propagation of Infrasonic Waves and Estimating the Energy of the Chelyabinsk Meteoroid Explosion Observed on February 15, 2013

Results obtained from simulating the propagation of infrasonic waves from the Chelyabinsk meteoroid explosion observed on February 15, 2013, are given. The pseudodifferential parabolic equation (PDPE) method has been used for calculations. Data on infrasonic waves recorded at the IS31 station (Aktyubinsk, Kazakhstan), located 542.7 km from the likely location of the explosion, have been analyzed. Six infrasonic arrivals (isolated clearly defined pulse signals) were recorded. It is shown that the first “fast” arrival (F) corresponds to the propagation of infrasound in a surface acoustic waveguide. The rest of the arrivals (T1–T5) are thermospheric. The agreement between the results of calculations based on the PDPE method and experimental data is satisfactory. The energy E of the explosion has been estimated using two methods. One of these methods is based on the law of conservation of the acoustic pulse I, which is a product of the wave profile area S/2 of the signal under analysis and the distance to its source E _I [kt] = 1.38 × 10^–10 (I [kg/s])^1.482. The other method is based on the relation between the energy of explosion and the dominant period T of recorded signal E _T [kt] = 1.02 × (T [s]²/σ)^3/2, where σ is the dimensionless distance determining the degree of nonlinear effects during the propagation of sound along ray trajectories. According to the data, the explosion energy E _I,T ranges from 1.87 to 32 kt TNT.     

An artificial neural network-based response surface method for reliability analyses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">c</Emphasis>-φ slopes with spatially variable soil

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-φ slopes with spatially variable soil. In this method, the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model; the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties; and finally, an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables. The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability. As a result, the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-φ slope reliability analyses.     

自然死亡率变化对黄海蓝点马鲛渔业管理的影响

传统的渔业资源评估方法对数据有一定的要求,而现有的许多渔业缺乏相关数据,造成了渔业评估和管理上的障碍。特别是自然死亡率,由于观测和计算的困难,研究中一般通过经验公式等方法进行假话,而不同来源的数据和估算方法的结果存在较大差异,可能导致在渔业资源评估和管理中很大的不确定性。本研究以蓝点马鲛（Scomberomorus niphonius）为例,利用MSE比较了22种基于有限数据的渔业管理规程（MP）,筛选出DCAC、SPMSY、curE75、minlenLopt1 4种对于M不确定性较为稳健的的管理方法,并针对不同年代的自然死亡率以及通过不同计算方法得出的自然死亡率对这4种MP进行了管理策略评价。结果表明：M自1980s至今的不同年代间有显著降低趋势,该变化对MP管理效果产生了较强影响。随着M降低,种群B>0.5BMSY的概率显著上升,而过度捕捞可能性在不同MP间有方向性的差异。M变化对对curE75、minlenLopt1的长期产量的影响较小,而对DCAC、SPMSY的AAVY<15%的可能性变化较大,即降低产量的波动。不同M估算方法的估计值相差不大,对MP管理影响不明显。综合结果来看,Cur75受自然死亡率不确定性影响较小,对于渔业资源的开发和保护两个方面有着最好的权衡,最适用于我国蓝点马鲛渔业的管理。     

Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Dynamics of the Chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> Concentration in the Sea of Azov Based on MERIS Images

The chlorophyll a concentration (Cchl a) in the Sea of Azov is estimated by the two-band NIR-red algorithm [34] from MERIS images for 2002–2012. The sea-truth spectrophotometric measurements and MERIS remote estimates of Cchl a are compared. The monthly average Cchl a values are mapped from MERIS data for its lifetime for the first time. The features of the spatiotemporal distribution of Cchl a are ascertained. Differences between the seasonal dynamics of Cchl a in the Sea of Azov according to the literature data and the dynamics derived from MERIS data are found, namely: the summer–autumn phytoplankton growth period is longer than the spring period and is characterized by higher Cchl a values throughout the water area.     

Effects of temperature on growth,photophysiology, Rubisco gene expression in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Prorocentrum donghaiense</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Karenia mikimotoi</Emphasis>

To explore the effects of temperature changes on dinoflagellate bloom succession in the coastal waters of the East China Sea, changes in the growth, photophysiology, and Rubisco gene expression of Prorocentrum donghaiense and Karenia mikimotoi, two harmful algal species, were investigated at different temperatures (16 to 28°C). The maximal specific growth rate and the maximal mRNA expression of Rubisco gene in P. donghaiense and K. mikimotoi occurred at 20 and 24°C, respectively. The photosynthetic activity of P. donghaiense was generally stable, but K. mikimotoi photosynthesis increased when temperatures rose from 16 to 28°C. The effective photochemical efficiency (F _q ^′ /F _m ^′ ) and the maximal relative electron transfer rate (rETR_max) of K. mikimotoi increased significantly with increasing temperature, and the lowest and highest values occurred at 16 and 28°C, respectively. It seems that P. donghaiense has higher photosynthetic capacity than K. mikimotoi due to its higher F _q ^′ /F _m ^′ , rETR_max, and photosynthetic efficiency (α). However, K. mikimotoi has a higher growth rate than P. donghaiense. These results suggest that the photosynthetic activity and genetic responses of dinoflagellates are species-dependent. It is likely that temperature changes affect species composition during blooms, leading to the observed patterns of bloom succession.     

Using the acoustic-pulse conservation law in estimating the energy of surface acoustic sources by remote sounding

The atmospheric effect on the characteristics of infrasonic signals from explosions has been studied. New methods have been proposed to remotely estimate the energy of explosions using the data of infrasonic wave registration. One method is based on the law of conservation of acoustic pulse I, which is equal to the product of the wave profile area S/2 of the studied infrasonic signal and the distance to the source E_I [kt] = 1.38 × 10^–10 (I [kg/s])^1.482. The second method is based on the relationship between the explosion energy and the dominant period T of the recorded signal, EТ [kt] =1.02 × (Т [s]²/σ)^3/2, where σ is a dimensionless distance used for determining the degree of manifestation of nonlinear effects in the propagation of sound along ray trajectories. When compared to the conventional E_W (Whitaker’s) relation, the advantage of the EI relation is that it can be used for pulsed sources located at an arbitrary height over the land surface and having an arbitrary form of the initial-pulse profile and for any type of infrasonic arrivals. A distinctive feature of the expression for E_Т is that the atmospheric effect on the characteristics of recorded infrasonic signals is explicitly taken into account. These methods have been tested using infrasonic data recorded at a distance of 322 km from the sources (30 explosions caused by a fire that occurred at the Pugachevo armory in Udmurtia on June 2, 2011). For the same explosion, empirical relations have been found between energy values obtained by different methods: E_I = 1.107 × E _W , E _Т = 2.201 × E _I .     

Age determination and growth rate of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mactra chinensis</Emphasis> (Bivalvia: Mactridae) by external rings and chondrophore growth bands

Age, growth and mortality of Mactra chinensis were investigated during the period from October 2012 to September 2013 in Busan, South Korea. The monthly variation of the marginal index (MI) of the shell and chondrophore showed that the ring of this species was formed once a year during July. We estimated the age of M. chinensis by reading the external rings on the shell and the growth bands of the chondrophore to compare growth parameters between the two growth characters. The age of this species ranged from 0 to 8 years (shell-based age reading) and from 0 to 10 years (chondrophore-based age reading). Based on external rings and growth bands of chondrophore for the same period, the von Bertalanffy growth functions were expressed by the equation, L _t = 101.53[1-exp {-0.15(t + 0.75)}] and L _t = 90.03[1-exp {-0.20(t + 0.50)}], respectively. The likelihood test showed that there was a significant difference in L _∞ (P < 0.001), K (P < 0.001), to (P < 0.001) estimated from non-linear regression between the two growth characters.     

Retrieval of total ozone in the mesosphere with a new model of electronic-vibrational kinetics of O<Subscript>3</Subscript> and O<Subscript>2</Subscript> photolysis products

The paper presents a new model of electronic-vibrational kinetics of the products of ozone and molecular oxygen photodissociation in the terrestrial middle atmosphere. The model includes 45 excited states of the oxygen molecules O₂(b ¹, Σ _g ⁺ ,v= 0−2), O₂ (a ¹Δ _g , v= 0−5), and O₂(X ³Σ _g ⁻ , v= 1−35) and of the metastable atom O (¹ D) and over 100 aeronomic reactions. The model takes into account the dependence of quantum yields of the production of O₂(a ¹Δ _g , v= 0−5) in a singlet channel of ozone photolysis in the Hartley band on the wavelength of photolytic emission. Taking account of the electronic-vibrational kinetics is important in retrieval of the vertical profiles of ozone concentration from measured intensities of the Atm and IR Atm emissions of the oxygen bands above 65 km and leads to an increase in the ozone concentration retrieved from the 1.27-μm emission, in contrast to the previous model of pure electronic kinetics. Sensitivity analysis of the new model is made for variations in the concentrations of atmospheric constituents ([O₂], [N₂], [O(³P)], [O₃], [CO₂]), the gas temperature, rate constants of the reactions, and quantum yields of the reaction products. A group of reactions that most strongly affect the uncertainty of ozone retrieval from measured intensities of atmospheric emissions of molecular oxygen O₂(b ¹Σ _g ⁺ , v) and O₂(a ¹Δ _g , v) has been determined. Original Russian Text ? V.A. Yankovsky, V.A. Kuleshov, R.O. Manuilova, A.O. Semenov, 2007, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2007, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 557–569.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

Features of the atmospheric boundary layer block for three versions of the WAM wind wave model

The estimated characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer, obtained by the simulation of wind wave fields using three versions of the WAM numerical model are compared with the well-known empirical dependences of drag coefficient C _d on wind speed U ₁₀ and wave age A, as well as with the dependence of dimensionless roughness height z _n on inverse wave age u*/с р. Calculations carried out for several years in the areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans, based on the ERA-interim and CFSR wind reanalyses have shown good agreement between the model and empirical dependences C _d (U ₁₀) and C _d (A). The range of estimated variability for z _n (u*/с _р ) has been found to be significantly less than empirical. It has been also found that estimated values of wind speed U _10W (t) are overestimated from 5 to 10% in all versions of WAM models compared with the input wind reanalysis U _10R (t) at the moments of appearance maximum values of wind U _10R (t). The reasons for the established features of the WAM model and their dependence on the model version are discussed.     

Features of the spatial distribution of phytoplankton in Nhatrang Bay of the South China Sea during the rainy season

The species composition, phytoplankton abundance, and relative yield of the variable fluorescence (F _v /F _m ) were determined in the mesotrophic Nhatrang Bay in October–November of 2004. The species diversity (250 taxonomic units) and heterogeneity of the phytoplankton structure were high. With respect to the number of species and their abundance, diatoms prevailed. In selected parts of the bay, dinoflagellates dominated. The mean biomass in the water column under 1 m² (B _t ) varied from 2.3 to 64.4 mg C/m³ being 31.0 mg C/m³ on average. The values of B _t were the lowest at the stations nearest to the river mouth. Seaward, B _t increased. The values of B _t increased with depth at some stations and decreased at others. In the surface sea layers, the biomass was lower than that in the underlying waters. The values of F _v /F _m ranged from 0.10 to 0.64 (at a mean value of 0.49). The lowest values of F _v /F _m were observed in the area close to the seaport. Over the greater part of the bay, the values of F _v /F _m were higher than 0.47. Such values are indicative of the relatively high potential photosynthetic activity of the phytoplankton. The abundance and species diversity were higher than those in the dry season (March–April).     

A new formula for saturated water steam pressure within the temperature range −25 to 220°C

Instead of approximation formula ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(a ? bt)t/(c + T)] commonly used at present for representing dependence of pressure of saturated streams of liquid water E upon temperature we suggested new approximation formula of greater accuracy in the form ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(A ? Bt + Ct ²)t/T], where t and T are temperature in °C and K respectively. For this formula with parameters A = 19.846, B = 8.97 × 10^?3, C = 1.248 × 10^?5 and E(0) = 6.1121 GPa with ITS-90 temperature scale and for temperature range from 0°C to 110°C relative difference of approximation applying six parameter formula by W. Wagner and A. Pruß 2002, developed for positive temperatures, is less than 0.005%, that is approximately 15 times less than accuracy obtained with the firs formula. Increase of temperature range results in relative difference increasing, but for even temperature range from 0°C to 220°C it does not higher than 0.1%. For negative temperatures relative difference between our formula and a formula of D. M. Murphy and T. Koop, 2005, is less than 0.1% for temperatures higher than ?25°C. This paper also presents values of coefficients for approximation of Goff and Grach formula recommended by IMO. The procedure of finding dew point T _d for known water steam pressure e _n based on our formula adds up to solving an algebraic equation of a third degree, which coefficients are presented in this paper. For simplifying this procedure this paper also includes approximation ratio applying a coefficient A noted above, in the form T _d (e _n ) = \(\frac{{AT_0 }}{{A - \varepsilon }}\) + 0.0866?² + 0.0116?^10/3, where ? = ln(e _n /E(T ₀)). Error of dew point recovery in this ratio is less than 0.005 K within the range from 0 to 50°C.     

Cenoses of phototrophic algae of ultrasaline lakes in the Kulunda steppe (Altai krai,Russian Federation)

In 2012, expeditions of the Institute of Microbiology, Russian Academy of Sciences, delivered samples of algo-bacterial mats from Kulunda steppe alkaline lakes (Petukhovskoe alkaline lake, Tanatar VI, and Gorchina III). The filamentous alga Ctenocladus circinnatus (Chlorophyta) acted as an edificator of the mats. The composition of cenoses algocomponents also included chlorophytes Dunaliella viridis and Picocystis salinarum as well as diatoms Anomeoneis sphaerophora, Brachysira brebissonii, B. zellensis, Mastogloia pusilla var. subcapitata, Nitzschia amphibia, N. cf. communis, and Nitzschia sp. 1. The composition and structure of phototrophic algae cenoses (including diatom taxocenes) were described for the investigated lakes for the first time. For the period from 2011 to 2012, the total mineralization significantly increased in lakes. This involved sensible alterations of cenoses. B. zellensis was the most permanent component of diatom taxocenes in both seasons. In the summer of 2011, it was often accompanied by A. sphaerophora and B. brebissonii. In the summer of 2012, A. sphaerophora was found only singularly in Lake Gorchina III, and some biotopes of Lake Tanatar VI were massively inhabited by N. cf. communis, including colonies that had not been previously described for the species. The genetic analysis of three diatoms, which are markedly different from each other in their appearance and were sampled from different lakes but were all determined as Nitzschia cf. communis, showed their complete similarity to each other with the 18S rRNA gene fragment and the highest similarity of all the three diatoms with the species Nitzschia communis.     

Determining the influence of wind-wave breaking on the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the upper ocean and on the dependence of the turbulent kinetic energy on the stage of wind-wave development

New experimental data that make it possible to explain and predict the observed variability of turbulent-energy dissipation in the upper ocean are discussed. For this purpose, the dependence of the energy dissipation rate of breaking wind waves on their propagation velocity (see [1]) is used. The turbulent-energy dissipation values obtained earlier in [2, 3] by a direct method are compared to the results of radar measurements of individual breaking events presented in [1]. On the basis of this comparison, a strong dependence of the turbulent-energy dissipation value on the stage of wind-wave development, which is characterized by the ratio U _a /c _p (U _a is the wind speed and c _p is the phase speed of the peak of the wind-wave spectrum) is confirmed. This dependence was found earlier purely empirically. Moreover, it is shown that the theoretically obtained dependence (c _p /U _a )⁴, does not contradict the available empirical data. The results of this study opens possibilities for scientifically substantiated calculations of greenhouse-gas exchange (specifically, CO₂ exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere).     

Molecular phylogeny of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chondracanthus</Emphasis> (Rhodophyta), focusing on the resurrection of <Emphasis Type="Italic">C. okamurae</Emphasis> and the description of <Emphasis Type="Italic">C. cincinnus</Emphasis> sp. nov.

Determining the taxonomic status of the red algal genus Chondracanthus based on morphological characters is challenging due to the similarity and high degree of plasticity of the thallus. Since the taxonomic history of several Chondracanthus species remains unclear, we analyzed the plastid rbcL and mitochondrial COI genes of the specimens from Korea and Japan, in combination with morphological observations, to examine their phylogenetic relationships. Our results confirmed the distinction of C. okamurae, which is separated from C. intermedius, and identified a novel species, C. cincinnus sp. nov. Three species (C. okamurae, C. intermedius and C. cincinnus) formed a monophyletic clade with C. tenellus. C. okamurae is distinguished by linear, narrow, cylindrical to compressed, slightly recurved axes, and a high-intertidal to subtidal distribution. It was collected from Korea and Japan, while C. intermedius was identified from Japan only. A new species, Chondracanthus cincinnus sp. nov., is characterized by linear, compressed, strongly recurved axes, and a low-intertidal to subtidal distiribution. Based on the molecular phylogeny using rbcL and COI data, we herein resurrect C. okamurae as a distinct species and identify C. cincinnus as a new species.     

四种贝类和鱼类外寄生车轮虫的国内新纪录

车轮虫是一类主要寄生于贝类和鱼类体表的缘毛类纤毛虫原生动物。本文对分别寄生于海洋贝类－－虾夷扇贝Mizuhopecten yessoensis,半咸水鱼类－－鲻鱼Mugil cephalus和双色鳗鲡Anguilla bicolor bicolor,以及淡水鱼类－－光唇鱼Acrossocheilus fasciatus鳃表和体表的虾夷扇贝车轮虫Trichodina pectenis,亚卓车轮虫T.jadranica,急尖车轮虫T.acuta和喙状车轮虫T.rostrata,进行了详细的分类学研究。本文第一次报道了虾夷扇贝车轮虫的活体和蛋白银染色后特征,该虫体也是国内新记录种。其它三个车轮虫物种感染的鱼类,均属新纪录宿主。同时,也报道了这四种车轮虫对宿主的感染率和感染强度。