南海北部海洋对局地生成热带气旋的响应

应用Topex/Poseidon卫星高度计海面高度距平(SSHA)资料以及TMI的逐日海表温度数据,对两个局地生成的热带气旋(1999年台风LEO和2000年台风WUKONG)引起的南海北部海洋响应过程进行研究.结果表明,在热带气旋影响下,海面高度显著降低,SSHA平均减少30cm,流场上出现气旋型环流,海表温度显著降低,降低幅度为2℃左右,在其尾迹上出现冷涡;相对于降温过程,海表温度的恢复过程非常缓慢;热带气旋强度突变或移行较缓时易引起海洋的强烈响应,这种响应的空间和时间尺度都较大,持续时间至少1周,发生响应的海域范围也很广,甚至可以跨越3个纬度的距离.     

登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋暴雨的中尺度特征

利用逐时雨量分布图，对登陆珠江三角洲的热带气旋暴雨尺度特征进行分类，对比和合成分析，实际资料证实了大范围的热带气旋暴雨是由若干中尺度雨团，雨带造成的，纯热带气旋环流形成的中尺度雨团、雨带具有与热带气旋云带大体一致的分布特征；有冷空气与之配合时，热带气旋环流北缘形成东西向的中尺度雨带；热带气旋登陆后的３ｈ可能出现最大中尺度雨团；随热带气旋环流的填塞减弱，中尺度雨团也逐渐减弱消失；山地对中尺度雨团的移     

冬季南海北部中尺度涡旋的数值研究

南海环流的一个主要特征是上层海洋环流具有多涡结构,海洋中尺度涡旋的演变(时间上的生消和空间上的迁移)是南海环流季节调整的可能方式。文中依据卫星遥感海面高度资料和实际海洋观测所揭示的南海北部存在中尺度涡旋体系的基本事实,采用一个改进了涡分辨(eddy-resolving)普林斯顿海洋模式(POM),对冬季处于强盛的东北季风强迫以及黑潮在巴士海峡入侵的共同作用下的南海北部环流的中尺度涡旋体系进行了数值研究,初步再现了冬季南海北部中尺度涡的生命史。计算结果表明,在实际的气候冬季风应力驱动下,具有的实际侧边界地形的南海北部呈现有强烈的中尺度涡旋。文中探讨了中尺度涡的垂直结构、温盐场的配置以及大尺度水平辐合辐散、海洋垂直运动与之相关的时空结构。由此可以得知,在冬季南海北部中尺度涡旋生命史的不同阶段,上述动力学因子的重要性是相对的。不同的敏感性试验表明,斜压调整是形成冬季南海中尺度涡旋体系的决定性因子;边界的入流和风应力驱动是影响中尺度涡旋运动的主要因素。     

南海热带气旋与西太平洋热带气旋成双时的复杂路径探讨

本文统计２９年（１９６０－１９８９）的历史资料，给出了南海热带气旋与西太平洋热带气旋成双的气候情况，并用天气学方法进行分类、研究、诊断给出西太平洋热带气旋对南海热带气旋移行路径影响的天气学模式及一些判据，为预报提供参考。     

登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋的中尺度结构分析

应用带通滤波方法,分析了登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋的环流结构。结果表明,在热带气旋内部的确存在若干中尺度系统,其类型包括:中尺度气旋、反气旋,以及中尺度辐合辐散带等。这些结果可以为进一步认识热带气旋的内部环流结构,进一步提高预报水平等提供新的思路和依据。     

一个南海热带气旋发展的环流特征分析

本文用ECMWF2.5×2.5网格点资料通过一个例子,对有利于南海热带气旋发展的环流场作了详细的分析,发现几点事实:(1)扰动在风的垂直切变较大的环境中仍可发展。(2)扰动位于中、低空西南急流左侧,高空南支东风急流右侧时,有利发展。(3)中,低空西南急流形成了扰动环流的强风潮,强风潮从扰动南侧入角,并包围扰动的东半圆。(4)扰动中、低层的入流和高层的外流呈现严重的不对称性。(5)当扰动发展到一定强度时,对南海热带季风环流圈的加强起到正反馈作用。     

登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋暴雨的中尺度特征

利用逐时雨量分布图，对登陆珠江三角洲的热带气旋暴雨中尺度特征进行分类、对比和合成分析。实际资料证实了大范围的热带气旋暴雨是由若干中尺度雨团、雨带造成的，纯热带气旋环流形成的中尺度雨团、雨带具有与热带气旋云带大体一致的分布特征；有冷空气与之配合时，热带气旋环流北缘形成东西向的中尺度雨带；热带气旋登陆后的３ｈ可能出现最大中尺度雨团；随热带气旋环流的填塞减弱，中尺度而团也逐渐减弱消失；山地对中尺度雨团的移动起阻滞加强作用，有利的地形与暖湿气流配合，将激发生成新的中尺度雨带。     

两类热带气旋在南海的移动速度

统计分析最近23a资料,得出热带气旋在南海的移动速度平均为3．3纬度,日,其中西太平洋热带气旋较快,达3．9纬度,日,南海热带气旋较慢,仅2．8纬度,日。两类热带气旋都是在7月最快。过去一天移动速度快于平均值,未来一天容易减慢,反之容易加快。西太平洋热带气旋以减慢为主,南海热带气旋以加快为主。天气系统对热带气旋移动速度影响较大。     

Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea

The seasonal variability of tropical cyclones (CTCs) generated over the South China Sea (SCS) from 1948 to 2003 is analyzed. It peaks in occurrence in August and few generate in late winter (from January to March). The seasonal activity is attributed to the variability of atmosphere and ocean environments associated with the monsoon system. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in each month.     

Three-dimensional properties of mesoscale cyclonic warm-core and anticyclonic cold-core eddies in the South China Sea

In general, a mesoscale cyclonic (anticyclonic) eddy has a colder (warmer) core, and it is considered as a cold (warm) eddy. However, recently research found that there are a number of “abnormal” mesoscale cyclonic (anticyclonic) eddies associated with warm (cold) cores in the South China Sea (SCS). These “abnormal” eddies pose a challenge to previous works on eddy detection, characteristic analysis, eddy-induced heat and salt transports, and even on mesoscale eddy dynamics. Based on a 9-year (2000–2008) numerical modelling data, the cyclonic warm-core eddies (CWEs) and anticyclonic cold-core eddies (ACEs) in the SCS are analyzed. This study found that the highest incidence area of the “abnormal” eddies is the northwest of Luzon Strait. In terms of the eddy snapshot counting method, 8 620 CWEs and 9 879 ACEs are detected, accounting for 14.6% and 15.8% of the total eddy number, respectively. The size of the “abnormal” eddies is usually smaller than that of the “normal” eddies, with the radius only around 50 km. In the generation time aspect, they usually appear within the 0.1–0.3 interval in the normalized eddy lifespan. The survival time of CWEs (ACEs) occupies 16.3% (17.1%) of the total eddy lifespan. Based on two case studies, the intrusion of Kuroshio warm water is considered as a key mechanism for the generation of these “abnormal” eddies near the northeastern SCS.     

南海中尺度涡的演化过程与行为追踪:一种基于全局最邻近滤波的方法

The eddy tracking approach is developed using the global nearest neighbor filter(GNNF) to investigate the evolution processes and behaviors of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea(SCS). Combining the Kalman filter and optimal data association technologies, the GNNF algorithm is able to reduce pairing errors to 0.2% in tracking synthetic eddy tracks, outperforming other existing methods. A total of 4 913 eddy tracks that last more than a week are obtained by the GNNF during 1993–2012. The analysis of a growth and a decay based on 3 445 simple eddy tracks show that eddy radius, amplitude, and vorticity smoothly increase during the first half of lifetime and decline during the second half following a parabola opening downwards. The genesis of eddies mainly clusters northwest and southwest of Luzon Island whereas the dissipations concentrate the Xisha Islands where the underwater bay traps and terminates eddies. West of the Luzon Strait, northwest of Luzon Island, and southeast of Vietnam are regions where eddy splits and mergers are frequently observed. Short disappearances mainly distribute in the first two regions. Moreover, eddy splits generally result in a decrease of the radius and the amplitude whereas eddy mergers induce growing up. Eddy intensity and vorticity, on the contrary, are strengthened in the eddy splits and diminished in mergers.     

基于CORA2再分析数据的南海中尺度涡时空分布特征初步研究

利用南海20 a逐日海流再分析资料对南海海域中尺度涡进行时空特征分析。经过数据处理、涡漩识别、统计分析等方法,对南海海域中尺度涡空间分布、时间分布、生命周期、空间尺度、移动路径、移动速度、影响频率等特征进行分析,对南海中尺度涡进行全面详细的解读。研究发现:涡旋出现位置跟南海200 m等深线较一致。大部分涡旋周期都集中在30 d以内,直径大都在100~300 km,主要向西南方向移动,速率在15~20 cm/s的涡旋比例最高。反气旋式中尺度涡影响频率要大于气旋式中尺度涡的影响频率,主要影响区域大致在200 m等深线以内海域。     

Detection of cyclonic eddy generated by looping tropical cyclone in the northern South China Sea: a case study

A case study on the cyclonic eddy generated by the tropical cyclone looping over the northern South China Sea (NSCS) is presented, using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and AVHRR sea surface temperature (SST) data. Three cases relating to the tropical cyclone events (Typhoon Kai-Tak in July 2000, Tropical Storm Russ in June 1994 and Tropical Storm Maria in August-September 2000) over the NSCS have been analyzed. For each looping tropical cyclone case, the cyclonic eddy with an obvious sea level depression appears in the sea area where the tropical cyclone takes a loop form, and lasts for about 2 weeks with a slight variation in location. The cold core with the SST difference greater than 2℃against its surrounding areas is also observed by the satellite-derived SST data.     

Detection of cyclonic eddy generated by looping tropical cyclone in the northern South China Sea:a case study

A case study on the cyclonic eddy generated by the tropical cyclone looping over the northern South China Sea (NSCS) is presented, using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and AVHRR sea surface temperature (SST) data.Three cases relating to the tropical cyclone events (Typhoon Kai-Tak in July 2000, Tropical Storm Russ in June 1994and Tropical Storm Maria in August-September 2000) over the NSCS have been analyzed. For each looping tropical cyclone case, the cyclonic eddy with an obvious sea level depression appears in the sea area where the tropical cyclone takes a loop form, and lasts for about 2 weeks with a slight variation in location. The cold core with the SST difference greater than 2 ℃ against its surrounding areas is also observed by the satellite-derived SST data.     

南海及西北太平洋卫星高度计资料分析:海洋中尺度涡统计特征

采用AVISO提供的卫星高度计融合数据,对南海及西北太平洋(5°～35°N,105°～150°E)1993～2009年17a间的中尺度涡活动进行统计分析.结果表明南海中尺度涡活动具有明显的年际变化,每年观测到产生的中尺度涡个数平均为21～22个,标准差约为4个,占年平均值的20%;而西北太平洋中尺度涡个数的年际差异不大,平均每年观测到150～151个中尺度涡产生,标准差约为14个,仅占年平均值的9%.中尺度涡的逐月统计结果表明南海和西北太平洋的中尺度涡活动均有明显季节变化,1993～2009年间的各月南海和西北太平洋分别观测到30～31个和213～214个中尺度涡产生,标准差分别约为6个和41个,均占各自月平均值的19%.中尺度涡主要集中分布在南海东北部、越南东部和黑潮流轴附近海域.涡动能、海面高度距平均方根以及涡度均方根的空间分布大致与涡旋个数分布一致,但在西北太平洋的低纬海区和黑潮延伸体区域则不甚吻合.在相同的涡旋判别标准下,西北太平洋低纬海区(5°～15°N)观测到的中尺度涡个数比中高纬海区要少得多.     

华南近海热带气旋活动的研究

根据国家气象局１９４９－１９９４年《热带气旋年鉴》资料，分析华南近海热带气旋活动的频率，强度，路径和登陆情况，并从中总结其活动的特征和规律。     

南海冷涡区域SST及冷涡动能、有效重力位能对热带气旋的响应

选择了12个个例,分析了冷涡区域海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)对热带气旋(tropical cyclone, TC)的响应。在TC的影响下,冷涡区域SST降低的最大值在2.7—9.15℃,冷涡平均降温1.35—5.89℃。冷涡SST降低与TC移动速度有很好的反向关联,移动速度越慢,冷涡SST降低越多。冷涡SST降低与TC平均最大风速有较好的正向关联,最大风速越大,冷涡SST降低越多。TC对冷涡的能量改变起着重要的作用,TC经过冷涡后,冷涡的动能(eddy kinetic energy, EKE)、有效重力位能(available gravitational potential energy, AGPE)有明显增长,并且EKE的增长小于AGPE的增长。TC作用前后EKE、AGPE的增长与冷涡区域SST降低的平均呈正向关联,表明在TC的影响下,冷涡的EKE、AGPE的改变能够反映SST降低的程度,或者说SST降低的多少能够反映冷涡EKE、AGPE改变的程度。     

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being -0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m /s over the WNP and 4.6 m /s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii(R15,R16) of the 15.4 m /s winds them and the 25.7 m /s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.