Energetics of lower tropospheric planetary waves over mid latitudes: Precursor for Indian summer monsoon

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, kinetic energy and momentum transport of waves 0 to 10 at 850 hPa level are computed from monthly mean zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind from equator to 90?N. Fourier technique is used to resolve the wind field into a spectrum of waves. Correlation analysis between All India Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) and energetics of the waves indicates that effective kinetic energy of waves 1, 3 and 4 around 37.5?N in February has significant correlation (99.9%) with the subsequent AISMR. A simple linear regression equation between the effective kinetic energy of these three waves and AISMR is developed. Out of 47 years’ (1958–2004) data, 32 years (1958–1989) are utilized for developing the regression model and the remaining 15 years (1990–2004) are considered for its verification. Predicted AISMR is in close agreement with observed AISMR. The regression equation based on the dynamics of the planetary waves is thus useful for Long Range Forecasting (LRF) of AISMR. Apart from the regression equation, the study provides qualitative predictors. The scatter diagram between AISMR and effective kinetic energy of waves 1, 3 and 4 around 37.5?N indicates that if the kinetic energy is more (less) than 5m²s^-2, the subsequent monsoon will be good (weak). Stream function fields indicate that high latitude trough axis along 40?E (70?E) leads to a good (weak) monsoon over India.     

Energetics of Indian winter monsoon

The Indian subcontinent is characterized by complex topography and heterogeneous land use-land cover. The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are spread across the northern part of the continent. Due to its highly variable topography, understanding of the prevailing synoptic weather systems is complex over the region. The present study analyzes the energetics of Indian winter monsoon (IWM) over the Indian subcontinent using outputs of mesoscale model (MM5) forced with National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), US, initial and boundary conditions. MM5 modeling framework, designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulations, is having a limited-area, non-hydrostatic and terrain following 12 sigma levels. The IWM energetics is studied using MM5 model outputs. Prior to this model’s validity and deviation from the corresponding observations (NCEP/NCAR) is assessed. The model’s overestimation/underestimation of wind, temperature and specific humidity at upper troposphere proves that the model has difficulty in picking up corresponding fields at all the model grid points because of terrain complexity over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Hence, the model fields deviate from the corresponding observations. However, model results match well with the winter global energy budget calculated using reanalysis dataset by Peixoto and Oort (1992). It suggests MM5 model’s fitness in simulating large scale synoptic weather systems. And, thus the model outputs are used for calculation of energetics associated with IWM. It is observed that beyond \(15^{{\circ }}\hbox {N}\) lower as well as upper level convergence of diabatic heating, which represents continental cooling and sinking of heat from atmosphere to land mass (i.e., surface is cooler than surrounding atmosphere) dominates. The diabatic heating divergence (cooling of continents) is found over ocean/sea and whole of the China region, Tibetan and central Himalayas (because of excess condensation than evaporation). The adiabatic generation of kinetic energy depends on the cross isobaric flow (north to south in winter, i.e., the present study shows strong circulation during IWM). It is found that wind divergence of model concludes lower level convergence over study region (i.e., strong winter circulation in the model fields).     

Investigating origin of the inadequate medium range predictability of the lower tropospheric ultra-long waves in tropics

The predictability of planetary or ultra-long scale waves is limited by the large growth of errors in these scales in almost all the medium range forecast models. Understanding the cause for the enormous build up of error is, therefore, a necessary task for improving the prediction of planetary waves. A diagnostic analysis of the systematic error energetics has been performed in the Global Forecast System model to investigate the reasons for poor predictability of the lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (wavenumber bands 1–4) in tropics using the analysis-forecast system of horizontal wind field at 850 hPa level during the boreal summer period. For this purpose, systematic error energy is computed in spatial as well as in wavenumber domain. Non-linear inter-scale transfer of error has been formulated and evaluated through energy exchanges among participating triads. The study reveals that the error is generated in the prognostic model initially with a small magnitude at the different locations around tropical convergence zone (TCZ) attributed to the inaccuracy in representing different physical processes like cumulus convection applied in the model. At subsequent evolution of forecasts, error increases and spreads along the TCZ due to its non-linear advection to the higher scales and eventually to the ultra-long scales attributed to the inherent dynamics of the model evaluated through the process of wave-wave exchange of error energy in terms of the triad interactions. The continuous generation and then, non-linear propagation of error up to the planetary scales in the course of prediction increase the uncertainty in ultra-long scales which actually inhibit to predict accurately the planetary scale waves in tropics during medium range forecasts. This work suggests caveats to the modeler’s community in the predictability study of tropical ultra-long waves.     

Intra-seasonal variations of kinetic energy of lower tropospheric zonal waves during northern summer monsoon

Space spectral analysis of zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind and time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves at 850 hPa during monsoon 1991 (1st June 1991 to 31st August 1991) for the global belt between equator and 40°N are investigated. Space spectral analysis shows that long waves (wavenumbers 1 and 2) dominate the energetics of Region 1 (equator to 20°N) while over Region 2 (20°N to 40°N) the kinetic energy of short waves (wavenumbers 3 to 10) is more than kinetic energy of long waves. It has been found that kinetic energy of long waves is dominated by zonal component while both (zonal and meridional) the components of wind have almost equal contribution in the kinetic energy of short waves. Temporal variations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 2 over Region 1 and Region 2 are almost identical. The correlation matrix of different time series shows that (i) wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 might have the same energy source and (ii) there is a possibility of an exchange of kinetic energy between wavenumber 1 over Region 1 and short waves over Region 2. Wave to wave interactions indicate that short waves over Region 2 are the common source of kinetic energy to wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 and wavenumber 1 over Region 1. Time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves indicates that wavenumber 1 is dominated by 30–45 day and bi-weekly oscillations while short waves are dominated by weekly and bi-weekly oscillations. The correlation matrix, wave to wave interaction and time spectral analysis together suggest that short period oscillations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 1 might be one of the factors causing dominant weekly (5–9 day) and bi-weekly (10–18 day) oscillations in the kinetic energy of short waves.     

Weakening of lower tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and neighbouring oceans and its impact on Indian monsoon

The study shows that in the scenario of global warming temperature gradient (TG) between Indian landmass and Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal is significantly decreasing in the lower troposphere with maxima around 850 hPa. TG during pre-monsoon (March to May) is reducing at a significant rate of 0.036°/year (Arabian Sea) and 0.030°/year (Bay of Bengal). The above alarming results are based on sixty years (1948–2007) of daily temperature and wind data extracted from CDAS-NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. TG based on ERA-40 data also indicates a decreasing trend of 0.0229°/year and 0.0397°/year for Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal respectively. As TG is not governed by any type of significant oscillation, there is a possibility of TG tending to zero. It is further observed that the rate of warming over the oceans is more than that over the land which has resulted into the weakening of TG. Pre-monsoon TG has significant correlations with

Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index

In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20‡N—40‡N and 70‡0E—85‡E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June–September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, for all the time scales. From the analysis it has been seen that RPI in the month of May is significantly associated with ISMR over various regions on all the scales. The relationship is statistically significant at 1% level. The study reveals that RPI in the month of May and January will be a new precursor for the long range forecasting of ISMR on the smaller spatial scale. On the decadal and climatological scale, winter and spring time RPI show a significant inverse relationship with the rainfall over the regions Peninsular India (PI) and North West India (NWI), while the association is direct with Central North East India (CNEI) and North East India (NEI). The relationship is significant at 0.1 and 1% level respectively.     

A comparison of Indian and African monsoon variability at different time scales

A review is given of the summer monsoon systems in Africa and India, and of their comparison at different time scales. Features of the circulation are described first, including the main respective meteorological centres of action controlling the annual cycle of the rain bands over these two regions. The main elements of the atmospheric intraseasonal variability are then presented, which controls in particular the onset of these two monsoon systems. Then the sensitivity of these two monsoon systems to oceanic and continental surface conditions in the context of interannual variability is discussed and compared. Consequences in term of predictability are commented. Finally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC4) scenarios of the future climate over these two regions are presented.     

Interannual and long-term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306 stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence. The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest 231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series.     

Pacific coral oxygen isotope and the tropospheric temperature gradient over the Asian monsoon region: a tool to reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Having recognized that it is the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient rather than the land–ocean surface temperature gradient that drives the Indian monsoon, a new mechanism of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monsoon teleconnection has been unveiled in which the ENSO influences the Indian monsoon by modifying the TT gradient over the region. Here we show that equatorial Pacific coralline oxygen isotopes reflect TT gradient variability over the Indian monsoon region and are strongly correlated to monsoon precipitation as well as to the length of the rainy season. Using these relationships we have been able to reconstruct past Indian monsoon rainfall variability of the first half of the 20th century in agreement with the instrumental record. Additionally, an older coral oxygen isotope record has been used to reconstruct seasonally resolved summer monsoon rainfall variability of the latter half of the 17th century, indicating that the average annual rainfall during this period was similar to that during the 20th century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A ∼25 ka Indian Ocean monsoon variability record from the Andaman Sea

Recent paleoclimatic work on terrestrial and marine deposits from Asia and the Indian Ocean has indicated abrupt changes in the strength of the Asian monsoon during the last deglaciation. Comparison of marine paleoclimate records that track salinity changes from Asian rivers can help evaluate the coherence of the Indian Ocean monsoon (IOM) with the larger Asian monsoon. Here we present paired Mg/Ca and δ¹⁸O data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) from Andaman Sea core RC12-344 that provide records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and δ¹⁸O of seawater (δ¹⁸O_sw) over the past 25,000 years (ka) before present (BP). Age control is based on nine accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates on mixed planktic foraminifera. Mg/Ca-SST data indicate that SST was ∼3 °C cooler during the last glacial maximum (LGM) than the late Holocene. Andaman Sea δ¹⁸O_sw exhibited higher than present values during the Lateglacial interval ca 19–15 ka BP and briefly during the Younger Dryas ca 12 ka BP. Lower than present δ¹⁸O_sw values during the BØlling/AllerØd ca 14.5–12.6 ka BP and during the early Holocene ca 10.8–5.5 ka BP are interpreted to indicate lower salinity, reflect some combination of decreased evaporation–precipitation (E–P) over the Andaman Sea and increased Irrawaddy River outflow. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that IOM intensity was stronger than present during the BØlling/AllerØd and early Holocene, and weaker during the late glaciation, Younger Dryas, and the late Holocene. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid climate change during the last deglaciation and Holocene included substantial hydrologic changes in the IOM system that were coherent with the larger Asian monsoon.     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean — A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali and Arabian coasts are associated with good monsoon rainfall over India. The strong monsoonal cooling in these regions can be attributed to strong low level winds and intense upwelling. The reappearance of 27°C isotherm off Somali coast in May/June coincides with the onset of southwest monsoon over India. Further, the influence of zonal anomaly of SST off Somalia Coast (SCZASST) and Central Indian Ocean Zonal Anomaly of SST (CIOZASST) with monsoon rainfall over India is brought out. The former is negatively related to the monsoon rainfall over western and central parts of India, whilst CIOZASST is positively related.     

Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of surface winds over the Indian monsoon region

The role of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in modulating synoptic and interannual variations of surface winds over the Indian monsoon region is studied using daily averaged National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses for the period 1987–1996. Two dominant ISOs are found in all years, with a period between 30–60 days and 10–20 days respectively. Although the ISOs themselves explain only about 10–25% of the daily variance, the spatial structure of variance of the ISOs is found to be nearly identical to that of high frequency activity (synoptic disturbances), indicating a significant control by the ISOs in determining the synoptic variations. Zonal and meridional propagation characteristics of the two modes and their interannual variability are studied in detail. The synoptic structure of the 30–60 day mode is similar in all years and is shown to be intimately related to the strong (‘active’) or weak (‘break’) phases of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The peak (trough) phase of the mode in the north Bay of Bengal corresponds to the ‘active’ (‘break’) phase of monsoon strengthening (weakening) the entire large scale monsoon circulation. The ISOs modulate synoptic activity through the intensification or weakening of the large scale monsoon flow (monsoon trough). The peak wind anomalies associated with these ISOs could be as large as 30% of the seasonal mean winds in many regions. The vorticity pattern associated with the 30–60 day mode has a bi-modal meridional structure similar to the one associated with the seasonal mean winds but with a smaller meridional scale. The spatial structure of the 30–60 day mode is consistent with fluctuations of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ) between one continental and an equatorial Indian Ocean position. The 10–20 day mode has maximum amplitude in the north Bay of Bengal, where it is comparable to that of the 30–60 day mode. Elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, this mode is almost always weaker than the 30–60 day mode. In the Bay of Bengal region, the wind curl anomalies associated with the peak phases of the ISOs could be as large as 50% of the seasonal mean wind curl. Hence, ISOs in this region could drive significant ISOs in the ocean and might influence the seasonal mean currents in the Bay. On the interannual time scale, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed wind stress is compared with the Florida State University monthly mean stress. The seasonal mean stress as well as interannual standard deviation of monthly stress from the two analyses agree well, indicating absence of any serious systematic bias in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed winds. It is also found that the composite structure of the 30–60 day mode is strikingly similar to the dominant mode of interannual variability of the seasonal mean winds indicating a strong link between the ISOs and the seasonal mean. The ISO influences the seasonal mean and its interannual variability either through increased/decreased residence time of the TCZ in the continental position or through occurrence of stronger/weaker active/break spells. Thus, the ISOs seem to modulate all variability in this region from synoptic to interannual scales.     

The interannual variability of mid-latitude meridional circulation and its teleconnection with Indian monsoon activity

The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to 160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W. Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector 3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon.     

Indonesian rainfall variability during Western North Pacific and Australian monsoon phase related to convectively coupled equatorial waves

The Indonesian archipelago which has over 15,000 islands, lies in the tropics between Asia and Australia. This eventually alters the rainfall variability over the region, which was influenced by the Asian-Australian monsoon and controlled by intraseasonal variabilities such as convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW), i.e., Kelvin, n?=?1 equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby gravity (MRG), and n?=?1 Westward inertio gravity (WIG), including the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study examines a 15-year 3B42 data for trapping CCEW and MJO in the region of Indonesia during both active and extreme Western North Pacific (WNP) and Australian (AU) monsoon phases, which are then compared with 30-year rainfall anomalies among 38 synoptic stations over Indonesia. The space–time spectral analysis is employed to filter each wave including the MJO in the equator, then proceeding with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to seek each wave peak which then coincides with WNP and AU monsoon peaks over Indonesia. It is concluded that an extreme monsoon classification has proven to control rainfall activity related to the CCEW and MJO at 60.66% during December through February (DJF)-WNP for only the significant wave perturbation value. Meanwhile, the CCEW and MJO significantly increase/decrease precipitation at Day 0 for about 37.88% from the total of Day 1st to Day end. Although the contribution of the CCEW and MJO does not profoundly influence rainfall activity during monsoon phase over Indonesia, they still modulate weather condition for more than 50%. On the other hand, a complex topography with a number of land–sea complexities is capable of influencing the rainfall variability in the region as a negative relationship is associated with the CCEW and MJO either during DJF-WNP or July through August (JAS)-AU monsoon phase.     

Upper and lower tropospheric energetics of standing and transient eddies in wave number domain during summer monsoon of 1991

Kinetic energy exchange equations (Saltzman 1957) in wave number domain are partitioned into standing, transient and standing-transient components following Murakami (1978, 1981). These components are computed for the 1991 summer monsoon using dailyu andv grid point data at 2.5° latitude-longitude interval between the equator and 40°N at 200 hPa and 850 hPa levels for the period June through August. The data are obtained from NCMRWF, New Delhi. The study shows that at 200 hPa wave number 1 over Region 3 (30°N to 40°N), wave number 2 over Region 2 (15°N to 30°N) and wave number 3 over Region 1 (equator to 15°N) dominate the spectrum of transport of momentum and wave to zonal mean flow interaction. Wave number 1 over Region 1 and Region 3 and wave number 2 over Region 2 are the major sources of kinetic energy to other waves via wave-to-wave interaction. At 850 hPa wave number 1 over Region 3 has maximum contribution in the spectrum of transport of momentum and kinetic energy and more than 90% of its contribution is from the standing component. This indicates that standing wave number 1 over Region 3 plays a very important role in the dynamics of monsoon circulation of the lower troposphere. The study further shows that although the circulation patterns at 200 hPa and 850 hPa levels are opposite in character, a number of energy processes exhibit a similar character at these levels. For example, (i) transport of momentum by most of the waves is northward, (ii) small scale eddies intensify northward, (iii) eddies are sources of kinetic energy to zonal mean flow over Region 1 and (iv) standing eddies are sources of kinetic energy to transient eddies. Besides the above similarities some contrasting energy processes are also observed. Over Region 2 and Region 3 standing and transient eddies are sources of kinetic energy to zonal mean flow at 200 hPa, while at 850 hPa the direction of exchange of kinetic energy is opposite i.e. zonal mean flow is a source of kinetic energy to standing as well as transient eddies. L(n) interaction indicates that at 200 hPa waves over R2 maintain waves over R1, while at 850 hPa waves over R1 maintain waves over R2. It has been found that the north-south gradient of zonal mean of zonal wind is the deciding factor of wave to zonal mean flow interaction.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展

气候重建工作的深入开展极大地促进了全新世亚洲季风变化的研究,然而当前重建结果对亚洲季风的演变特征和机理存在很大争议,开展古气候模拟对理解全新世亚洲季风演变的时空特征和成因机制具有重要意义。为此,本文主要从气候模式模拟的角度回顾全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究工作,并将从外强迫和气候系统内部变率这两个角度对机制进行探讨。主要有以下进展:全新世瞬变模拟试验结果反映早全新世以来亚洲季风降水呈下降趋势,这主要受到地球轨道参数的影响,并通过改变海陆热力差异和半球间温度梯度来影响亚洲季风降水。在百年尺度弱季风事件上,模拟的8.2 ka BP时期的亚洲季风弱事件主要是由冰川融水触发,引起大西洋经向翻转环流AMOC减弱并通过大气遥相关导致季风降水减少;而4.2 ka BP时期模式模拟的亚洲弱季风事件主要是受内部变率所主导而并非外强迫因子影响。亚洲季风百年尺度变化的模拟研究主要集中在过去2 000年时段,中世纪气候异常期季风明显增强,而在小冰期逐渐减弱,太阳辐射和火山活动是影响其变化的主导因子,它们通过影响海陆热力差异、印—太海温变化来影响季风变化。