汕尾市区砂土液化分析

采用标准贯人试验法对抽取的汕尾市区34个野外钻孔资料进行液化分析,计算液化指数,判断液化等级,进而划分液化小区。结果表明,汕尾市区滨海堆积平原普遍存在砂土液化地震地质灾害,液化等级轻微、中等至严重均有分布,以中等液化为主。根据建筑物类别和工程建设场地的实际情况提出抗液化措施的建议。     

砂土地震液化的神经网络预测

BP网络具有很强的非线性映射和自适应学习功能 ,可用于模式识别和预测评估等领域 .在简要分析BP算法的基础上 ,选取砂土的平均粒径 (d5 0 /mm)、相对密度(Dr/% )、标准贯入击数 (N63 .5 /击 )、上覆有效压力 (σv/kPa)、地震烈度 (I0 )作为指标 ,应用BP神经网络的理论与方法 ,预测砂土在地震作用下液化的可能性 ,取得了较好的预测效果 .说明将BP网络用于沙土液化预测是可行的 .     

下辽河地区砂土液化形成的震害地质问题

海城地震引起下辽河平原大面积砂土液化,液化震害有喷水冒砂、陷落砂坑、地滑移等等。液化区是全新世海退之地,震害严重区地表粘性土层薄,承压水头高;震害轻微区地表粘性土层厚,承压水头低。喷砂颗粒的单粒结构表明液化砂层具有松散的特点,砂颗粒的滚圆度在液化难易上不起主要作用     

唐山地震时不同烈度区液化砂土的特征及其液化判别

本文根据唐山地区的东、中、西三条剖面上的地震喷砂的物质成分和理化性质等分析,探讨了不同烈度区液化砂土的颗粒成分、化学成分、物理性质及砂颗粒形态等变化规律,并根据这些规律,编制出以物质成分和性质为基础的、具有多种因素的砂土液化判别图。该图可供砂土液化预测、砂土液化研究者参考     

基于支持向量机的砂土液化预测分析

将支持向量机方法应用于砂土地震液化预测问题.考虑影响砂土液化的因素,选用震级、标贯击数、相对密实度、土层埋深、地震历时、地面运动峰值加速度和震中距7个影响因子作为液化判别指标,建立了砂土液化预测的支持向量机模型.以砂土液化实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应函数对待判样本进行分类.研究结果表明:支持向量机模型分类性能良好,是砂土地震液化预测的一种有效方法,可以在实际工程中进行推广.     

汶上县城区砂土地震液化调查分析

通过钻孔、标准贯入试验等手段,对汶上县城区进行砂土地震液化调查分析。划分砂土液化等级,并给出汶上县城区在Ⅶ度、Ⅷ度时的砂土液化分布图,为城市建设工程抗震设防提供依据。     

基于RS-PCA-GA-SVM的砂土液化预测方法研究

砂土液化是一种危害性比较大的自然灾害,对砂土液化进行判定预测在地质灾害防治领域中有重要的研究意义。通过粗糙集理论(Rough Set,RS)对影响砂土液化的6个初始评价指标(包括震级、土深、震中距、地下水位、标贯击数和地震持续时间)进行属性约简,去掉冗余或干扰信息,得到基于4个核心预测指标的数据集。通过主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)从核心评价指标中提取出主成分,采用支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)对数据集进行训练,用遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)优化参数,建立砂土液化的RS-PCA-GA-SVM预测模型。并结合砂土液化实际数据将预测结果与基于Levenberg-Marquardt算法改进的BP神经网络模型(LM-BP)的预测结果做比较。实例计算表明:基于RS-PCA-GA-SVM模型得到的砂土液化预测结果精度较LM-BP神经网络有很大的提高,判别结果与实际情况比较吻合,可在实际工程中应用。     

地震时砂土液化的数理统计预测

1976年唐山地震期间,附近一些地区出现了砂土液化现象。本文根据工程勘探中的实例及实验数据,进行了砂土液化作用的统计和综合预测。文章中采用贝叶斯准则下的逐步判别分析方法,对唐山地区已知液化地点和非液化地点,作了五种检验计算,挑选出准确度及可靠性最高的变量模式。从而,对于当地震为Ⅷ度烈度时的砂土液化进行了预测。五种预测结果相同,互相印证,可靠性高,分组最大后验概率大多在0.99以上。在此条件下,外推预测结果可信。工程实践中,迫切需要对砂土液化进行综合性预测,而一般采用地质学或试验方法,仅能对砂土液化作单因素或少量因素下的预测,本文提出了综合性的通用预测方法,为砂土液化统计预测提供了新途径。砂土液化是平原地区的一种重要地震灾害。国内外多次大地震中,都曾因饱水砂土受到地震作用,引起孔隙水压增高及砂粒间的结合力和摩擦力降低,而使砂层发生液化状态的流动,并伴随有地基承载能力降低或失效。1964年以来,新潟地震及阿拉斯加地震时,由砂土液化造成了罕见的灾害。激发了各国、尤其是美国和日本对砂土液化预测的研究。但还多是单因素或少量因素影响下的分析方法。未能进行综合分析及推断。采用数理统计方法,可以综合分     

Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas

The Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high density of population and rapidly developing economy. There are low lying coastal plain and deltaic plain in this region. Thus, the study area could be highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise caused by global warming. This paper deals with the scenarios of the relative sea level rise in the early half period of the 21st century in the study area. The authors suggested that relative sea level would rise 25 50 cm by the year 2050 in the study area, of which the magnitude of relative sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta would double the perspective worldwide average. The impacts of sea level rise include: (i) exacerbation of coastline recession in several sections and vertical erosion of tidal flat, and increase in length of eroding coastline; (ii) decrease in area of tidal flat and coastal wetland due to erosion and inundation; (iii) increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge, which would threaten the coastal protection works; (iv) reduction of drainage capacity due to backwater effect in the Lixiahe lowland and the eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, and exacerbation of flood and waterlogging disasters; and (v) increase in salt water intrusion into the Yangtze Estuary. Comprehensive evaluation of sea level rise impacts shows that the Yangtze River Delta and eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, especially Shanghai Municipality, belong in the district in the extreme risk category and the next is the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay, the third is the abandoned Yellow River delta, and the district at low risk includes the central part of north Jiangsu coastal plain and Lixiahe lowland.     

浅基础水平场地砂土液化危害性评价

分析了《建筑抗震设计规范》中砂土液化危害性评价方法的不足,通过确立液化土层在不同震害模式情况下的液化震陷计算值,建立了以震陷值S为指标的浅基础水平场地地基液化危害性评价等级,得到了其评价程序.     

昆明盆地砂土液化灾害评价

系统收集整理昆明盆地238个钻孔资料,根据<建筑抗震设计规范>(CB50011-2001)中砂土液化的判别方法,对其中81个钻孔进行了液化判别和等级划分.结果显示,昆明盆地地形平坦,由北向南高程渐低,自然坡降为1‰～2‰,地层由第四纪的冲积、湖积及湖沼相沉积之砂质粘土、淤泥、草煤及粉砂组成,其液化判定结果与盆地地貌和沉积物的分布规律一致.在Ⅷ度以上地震烈度影响下,滇池北岸到昆明机场的范围内存在砂土液化的可能.     

The effect of tide on the hydrology and morphology of a freshwater river

How does river hydrology and morphology change due to tidal influence? We contend that this is a question of particular consequence to many earth surface disciplines, but one that has not been adequately addressed. Previous studies have relied on gradients in channel morphology and stratigraphy to infer energy regime of channels. However, in tidal rivers geomorphology influences the energy regime while the energy regime influences morphology; thus, geomorphic and stratigraphic patterns do not fully resolve the mechanisms which lead to change. We addressed this problem by comparing measurements of hydraulic energy and channel morphology along a tidal gradient to predictions of these characteristics in the absence of tides, and attributed the differences to tidal processes. Measurements of discharge, channel area, and energy dissipation (in kJ day^–1) were made over a 24·8 hour period at four sites spanning the non‐tidal to tidal freshwater Newport River, NC. We then predicted those characteristics under non‐tidal conditions using hydraulic geometry relationships and literature values from coastal plain rivers. Discharge was enhanced more than 10‐fold by tide, and this tidal effect increased from upstream to downstream along the tidal gradient. Cross‐sectional area increased three‐fold due to tide. Energy dissipation measured in the upper tidal river was four‐fold lower than predicted to occur in the absence of tide because tides decreased average velocity and discharge. Energy dissipation measured downstream was similar to that predicted to occur without tides, although there was large uncertainty in predicted values downstream. While this limited dataset does not permit us to make broad generalizations for definitive models, it does provide a proof‐of‐concept for a new approach to addressing a critical problem at the interface of fluvial and coastal morphology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Another Important Factor of Rising Sea Level: Soil Erosion

Global mean sea level is a sensitive factor of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea‐level rise from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of glaciers and polar ice. Consideration of global soil erosion, water vapor cycle, and hydraulic actions suggests that soil erosion is another important factor contributing to sea‐level rise in addition to global warming. Much terrestrial sediment flows into the rivers each year but cannot be replenished, resulting in land surface declines. Moreover, sediment flow into rivers and oceans contributes to rising sea level. Ecological protection measure was proposed to prevent rising sea levels caused by soil erosion. This commentary should be useful to attract attention on rising sea levels caused by soil erosion.     

平原河网地区人类活动对降雨-水位关系的影响——以太湖流域杭嘉湖地区为例

太湖流域快速城镇化、水利工程等一系列人类活动对流域水文过程产生了深刻影响.本文以快速城镇化的杭嘉湖地区为例,基于1961-2014年逐日降雨、水位观测资料,构建了水位涨幅（ΔZ）、水位增长速率（k₁）和退水速率（k₂）等指标,旨在揭示变化环境下该地区降雨过程中水位的变化特征及可能的驱动因素.结果表明：1）变化环境下杭嘉湖地区近54年降雨量呈微弱的增加趋势,但降雨过程中的水位涨幅呈下降趋势,尤其是平均水位涨幅呈显著下降趋势,且于2000年左右发生明显变化;突变后水位涨幅下降主要集中在10~50 mm/d的降雨过程中,而大于50 mm/d的降雨过程中突变后水位涨幅较突变前有所升高.2）从空间分布上来看,各站降雨量与水位涨幅存在明显的空间差异,降雨量总体呈增加趋势,增加趋势东强西弱;大部分站点的水位涨幅却呈下降趋势,其中位于区域南部站点的平均水位涨幅下降趋势较东北部更为明显,水位涨幅呈显著下降站点的空间分布与杭嘉湖南排工程等水利工程的分布较为一致.3）通过对杭嘉湖地区降雨过程中水位增长速率和退水速率的变化分析发现,突变后较突变前退水速率有所提高,说明近年来水利工程等设施的完善和有序调度使得杭嘉湖地区的排洪能力有所提高,该变化可能是导致杭嘉湖地区地区突变后一定强度的降雨过程中水位涨幅下降的主要原因.而杭嘉湖地区强降雨过程中水位涨幅依然较高,可能是该地区洪峰水位居高不下的主要原因.此外,由于该地区近年来起涨水位抬升明显,对洪峰水位的抬升也有一定影响.     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的砂土液化预测方法

使用最小二乘支持向量机分类方法建立了两个砂土液化预测模型,预测结果与野外实际情况全部相符,表明该分类方法用于预测砂土液化是可行的,且预测准确率高。     

砂土液化引起大位移对地下管道影响的非线性分析

地下管线是生命线工程的主要部分,已经成为现代工农业生产和城镇生活的大动脉。已有震害调查表明,饱和砂土液化引起的地基大变形(侧向变形和沉降)是导致强震区生命线工程震害的主要原因。采用三维非线性有限差分分析方法来研究砂土液化引起的大位移对地下管道的破坏特征,分析砂土液化的斜坡变形特征、孔隙水的演化过程。结果表明,砂土液化引起的大位移对地下管道有破坏作用,导致管道变形规律与其斜坡的位移规律相同,地下管线的变形随着振动频率和幅值的增加其非线性增大。