Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines

A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and ?3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change.     

Alternative water management options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands

Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability of the urbanized low-lying areas in the western part of the Netherlands. In this article possibilities are explored to reduce vulnerability of these areas by implementing alternative water management options. Two main water management fields are distinguished, water supply and flood control. A four-component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity, and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is shown that current water supply and flood control strategies in the Netherlands focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing higher and stronger dikes, improved water storage and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four capacities. Flood damage reduction, backup water supply systems and emergency plans are measures that can contribute to increasing coping capacity. Recovery capacity can be increased by multi-source water supply, insurance, or establishing disaster funds. Adaptive capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply and urbanization. Including all four components of the vulnerability framework enables better understanding of water and climate related vulnerability of urban areas and enables developing more complete water management strategies to reduce vulnerability.     

Correction to: Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change

Windblown dust originating in China and Mongolia causes health effects and agricultural damage in its source areas and causes Asian dust events in Japan. An early warning system that could be combined with weather forecasts would be helpful in preventing serious damage. However, it is difficult to specify source areas of dust with current dust modeling systems because land surface information, including vegetation coverage and land surface soil water content, is inadequate. To find and monitor dust source regions, a semi-real-time dust erodibility map was developed based on MODIS satellite data that focuses particularly on the threshold wind speed in a target area of northeast Asia including China and Mongolia (35°–50°N, 75°–120°E). The mapping system incorporates satellite data on snow cover, areas of frozen soil, surface soil water content, and vegetation cover.     

Estimations of climate change impacts on crop production in the Republic of Moldova

Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate, key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics. Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response, possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat, whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively. As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase in corn yields. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin

We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the yield of rainfed rice in the lower Mekong Basin and evaluated some adaptation options, using a crop growth simulation model. Future climate projections are based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as simulated by ECHAM4 global climate model downscaled for the Mekong Basin using the PRECIS system. We divided the basin into 14 agro-climatic zones and selected a sub-catchment within each zone for the model and assessed the impact for the period of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. The increase is higher during 2030–2050 compared to the period of 2010–2030 for A2 scenario. For B2 scenario, yield increase is higher during 2010–2030. The impact is mainly due to the change in rainfall and CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. We have tested widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation, and reduction in fertility stress and found that negative impact on yield can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved.     

黄土高原北部土地利用变化对长期土壤水分平衡影响模拟

为探明土地利用变化对黄土高原长期土壤水分平衡的影响,利用校验的Hydrus-1D模型模拟黄土高原北部神木六道沟小流域1981—2050年农耕地—苜蓿草地—天然草地情景下0~4 m土壤水分变化过程,量化土壤储水量、深层渗漏和蒸散发等水文变量的演变特征。结果显示:①农耕地期间年降水的88%为蒸散发消耗,11%为渗漏损失。②苜蓿草地种植后6 a内,蒸散发大幅增加至年降水的108%,土壤水分负平衡,0~4 m土壤储水量以52 mm/a的速率降低;至7~13 a,年降水几乎全部被蒸散发消耗。③苜蓿草地转变为天然草地后,蒸散发量下降31%,土壤水分以45 mm/a的速率逐渐补给,之后年降水量的92%用于蒸散发,8%为渗漏消耗,土壤水分处于相对稳定状态。研究表明不同土地利用方式下的土壤水分平衡模式具有显著差异,种植高耗水植被可造成土壤水分负平衡,导致土壤干燥化,进而对土壤水分补给产生负面效应,改变植被类型可使土壤干层得到有效改善。     

Correction to: Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

We refine the 1-D velocity model of the Central India Tectonic Zone (CITZ) using well-selected arrival times of P- and S-phases of 354 local earthquakes of magnitude (M_w) between 2.0 and 5.8, recorded by national seismic network from May 1997 to March 2016. Further, we have determined the source mechanisms of 26 selected local events using moment tensor inversion to characterize the dynamics beneath the CITZ. The best-fit simulation between observed and synthetic waveforms obtained the nodal and auxiliary planes of the each faults associated with the earthquake moment magnitude (M_w) for each event. Depth of the fault plane along the CITZ varies from 5 to 38 km. From this study, we found that the western part along the CITZ shows minimum focal depth and reaches maximum 38 kms at Jabalpur in the eastern part. This complex nature of earthquake dynamics occurrence along the CITZ. We propose that the curviplanar the CITZ dominated with sinistral curvature is subjected to compression along the longer ~E–W segments and transtension along shorter segments with ~NE–SW orientations. The occurrences of normal faulting, intrusion of mafic plutons and CLVD mechanisms for earthquakes are interpreted to be linked to the transtension zones and reverse mechanisms associated with the compressions along ~E–W segments.     

Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies

In an emergency, schools are responsible for the safety of students until they can be reunited with their families. This study explored emergencies (i.e. bomb threat, a flood, and an earthquake) in three case study schools in New Zealand. Within each case, a selection of stakeholders (i.e. school leaders, staff, and parents) shared their experiences of responding to emergency events in the school. Lessons from participants’ experiences established factors before, during, and after an emergency that contribute to an effective response. Foremost among those factors was the importance of prior preparation. The study also identified recurring response activities, irrespective of emergency type, which enabled the development of a six-stage model of an effective school-based emergency response. The stages are: (1) Alerts; (2) Safety behaviours; (3) Response actions; (4) Student release/Family reunification; (5) Temporary school closure; and (6) Business as usual. The present study contributes to our understanding of research investigating how schools respond to emergencies and therefore seeks to enhance school safety efforts.     

Timing and prediction of climate change and hydrological impacts: periodicity in natural variations

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers. Predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. Palaeoclmatic investigations, on the other hand, show unequivocal and strong periodicity of climate variations in proxy evidence. Yet how to use the periodicity in future hydroclimatic timing and forecasting has received less attention. This paper examines the periodicity in Pleistocene–Holocene glacial–interglacial events and in modern precipitation records, and discusses a way in which the periodicity is used for hydroclimatic predictions. The analysis, based on published CO₂, ΔT (δ²H) and δ¹⁸O proxy data of polar ice cores and deep oceanic benthic fossils, shows a periodicity in a ~100, ~40 or 25 kyear duration consistent with Milankovitch orbital regulations during the glacial–interglacial periods. On a fine time scale, millennium and multi-decadal periodicity is observed in high-resolution proxy variations of Greenland ice cores and in instrumental precipitation records of the contiguous USA. A basic periodicity of decadal and multi-decadal changes in ~20 and ~10–15 year duration is apparent in wavelet frequency analysis of both ice core proxy and precipitation data. While the kyear-scale periodicity is found of global prevalence, the millennium and decadal variations vary in space and are region-specific. Based on these findings, a generalized time-downscaling hierarchy of periodicity is proposed as a potential approach for timing and forecasting future hydroclimatic conditions at a resolution relevant to the water resources engineering and management.     

Global climate change and the effect of conservation practices in US agriculture

 Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however, of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program, and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million metric tons. By 2008, there will be an increase of about 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices, which could lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance, financial assistance, research and development, land retirement, and regulation and taxes. Received: 27 December 1999 · Accepted: 14 March 2000     

Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).     

Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue

Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes, the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular, the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues, summarizes the current knowledge, and introduces the thematic issue.     

An integrated methodology to assess future water resources under land use and climate change: an application to the Tahadart drainage basin (Morocco)

The assessment of freshwater resources in a drainage basin is not only dependent on its hydrologic parameters but also on the socio-economic system driving development in the watershed area; the socio-economic aspect, that is often neglected in hydrologic studies, is one of the novelties of this study. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) presenting an integrated working methodology and (2) studying a local case of a North African watershed where scarce field data are available. Using this integrated methodology, the effects of climate and land use change on the water resources and the economic development of the Tahadart drainage basin in Northern Morocco have been evaluated. Water salinization, tourism, urbanization, and water withdrawals are a threat to water resources that will increase with future climate change. The Tahadart Basin (Morocco 1,145 km²) is characterized by rain-fed agriculture and by the presence of two water retention basins. Assessment of the effects of climate and land use change on this drainage basin was based on current and future land cover maps obtained from spatial interactions models, climate data (current and future; scenario A1b for the period 2080–2100), and hydrological models for water budget calculations. Land use suitability maps were designed assuming a A1b Special Report on Emissions Scenarios socio-economic development scenario. The most important conclusions for the period 2080–2100 are the following: (1) Freshwater availability within the watershed will likely be affected by a strong increase in evaporation from open water surface bodies due to increased temperature. This increase in evaporation will limit the amount of freshwater that can be stored in the surface reservoirs. (2) Sea level rise will cause flooding and salinization of the coastal area. (3) The risk for drought in winter is likely to increase. The methodology used in this paper is integrated into a decision support tool that is used to quantify change in land use and water resources.     

Spatial estimation of soil erosion risk using RUSLE/GIS techniques and practices conservation suggested for reducing soil erosion in Wadi Mina watershed (northwest,Algeria)

The Wadi Mina Watershed, western area of Algeria is characterized by rare and irregular rains and a fragile and weak vegetable cover. The sediments resulting from erosion are transported and contributed to silting dam Sidi Mhamed Benaouda. The combination of the thematical maps of the various erosive factors according to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in SIG by ArcGIS 10.2 software provided a reliable forecast of the annual rates of soil loss by delimiting the areas prone to erosive risk in the catchment above mentioned. The estimated potential average annual soil loss is 11.2 t/ha/yr., and the potential erosion rates from recognized erosion classes ranged from 0.0 to plus 100 t/ha/yr. About 50% of the catchment area was predicted to have very low to low erosion risk, with soil loss between 0 and 7.4 t/ha/yr. Erosion risk is moderate over 13.9% of the catchment, where calculated soil loss is between 7.4 and 12 t/ha/yr. Erosion risk is high to dangerous over 36.1% of the catchment, where calculated soil loss is more than 12 t/ha/yr. According to this study, it appeared clearly that we must intervene quickly by using reliable and effective conservation techniques.     

吉林省季节冻土冻结深度变化及对气候的响应

为了掌握季节冻土冻结深度的变化对气候的响应,利用1961-2015年吉林省46个气象站的逐日平均气温、地表温度、积雪深度、冻土冻结深度等数据,采用线性倾向估计、突变分析等方法,研究了吉林省季节冻土冻结深度的时空演变规律及其与气温、积雪的关系。结果表明：吉林省季节冻土最大冻结深度呈由西向东逐渐减小的空间分布特征,绝大多数站最大冻结深度呈减小趋势。基本上在10月开始冻结,次年3月达到最深,6月完全融化。西部冻土冻结深度变幅较大,其次是中部,东部最小。1961-2015年季节冻土最大冻结深度以-5.8 cm·（10a）^-1的速率显著减小（P<0.01）。最大冻结深度基本上呈逐年代减小的趋势,从20世纪90年代开始,最大冻结深度明显减小。最大冻结深度在1987年发生了突变,突变后平均最大冻结深度比突变前平均最大冻结深度减小了22.2 cm。通过分析气温和积雪深度对冻结深度的影响,认为冻土冻结深度对气温变化较为敏感,绝大多数站最大冻结深度与平均气温呈负相关关系。在年际变化上,气温的上升是最大冻结深度减小的主要原因。在季节冻土稳定冻结期,积雪深度超过10 cm,保温作用逐渐变强;当积雪深度达到20 cm时,保温作用显著,冻土冻结深度变浅。     

天保工程对森林涵养水源和保育土壤空间格局的影响——以内蒙古森工林区为例

为了更直观地反映天然林资源保护工程(以下简称“天保工程”)对森林生态系统涵养水源和保育土壤功能产生的影响,体现天保工程所带来的生态效益,依据《森林生态系统服务功能评估规范(GB/T 38582—2020)》,以内蒙古大兴安岭重点国有林管理局的林区为研究对象,对天保工程实施前(1998年)和实施后(2018年)2期森林生态系统涵养水源和保育土壤功能进行量化分析,认为内蒙古大兴安岭重点国有林管理局林区(简称“内蒙古森工林区”)涵养水源价值为950.16亿元(1998年)和1 341.32亿元(2018年),保育土壤的价值为563.49亿元(1998年)和760.11亿元(2018年)。天保工程实施前后,森林生态系统涵养水源功能总价值量排名前3位的林业局依次是根河、莫尔道嘎、乌尔旗汉,保育土壤功能排名前3位的依次是根河、乌尔旗汉、金河。从整体空间分布上分析得出的2期涵养水源和保育土壤功能价值量均呈现中部>北部>南部的趋势。     

气候变化和人类活动对中亚地区水文环境的影响评估

中亚地区是我国天气的上游区,生态环境异常脆弱,必须要保证该地区生态环境和资源安全,水资源安全首当其冲.研究和评估气候变化和人类活动对中亚地区水文环境的影响,具有重要的战略意义.近百年来中亚地区气候有暖湿化趋势,气温增温持续时间较长且增温幅度较大,近50a增暖更加明显(0.47℃·(10a)^-1),其中冬季增温最快,预估未来会延续变暖的态势;同时20世纪80年代之后降水量持续波动上升.气候变化对该地区水资源的时空分布及湖泊变迁造成了重大影响,人类活动加剧了水资源短缺,近50a来锡尔河和阿姆河入咸海径流量均呈减少的趋势,20世纪70年代之后拦水蓄水水库等水利工程的建设,加上灌溉用水的增加,导致两河入咸海水量骤减;而1987年之后两河入咸海水量回升,主要是气温回暖、降水增多,加速了常年积雪和冰川融化,使得进入河道的径流量增加.同时,湖泊水位下降,面积收缩,水质恶化.中亚水资源问题主要是跨国水资源分配和水环境恶化问题,要做好水资源评估和用水规划工作,建立覆盖全区域的水资源环境监测网络.中亚国家需要共同参与制定一套完整的、综合考虑人口、社会经济、生态环境等因素的水资源管理政治立法决策体系,构建中亚各国人水和谐、互利共存的水资源新秩序,以水资源可持续利用来支持经济与社会的可持续发展.