1906年新疆玛纳斯大震区的多层次逆冲构造与深部结构

通过对天山北麓 190 6年玛纳斯 7 7级地震区的浅层地震探测资料、石油地震反射剖面、二维电性结构剖面、深地震反射剖面的研究 ,发现玛纳斯地震区多层次活动构造系统的根带 ,它通过脆 -韧转换带与天山活动构造块体内上地壳中的低速、高导层连为一体。低速、高导层可能是天山地壳内正在活动的韧性剪切带 ,而齐古逆断裂 -褶皱带下的脆 -韧转换带是连接深部活动韧性剪切带与地壳浅部脆性破裂的枢纽 ,也是现今孕育和发生大地震的重要构造部位。 190 6年玛纳斯地震发生在脆韧转换带的底部 ,地震区的活动逆断裂和褶皱只是部分记录了深部韧性剪切带活动的信息     

新疆南天山库车坳陷晚第四纪以来地壳缩短速率的初步研究

库车坳陷是南天山中段新构造运动异常强烈的地区,发育4排近EW向展布的逆断裂-背斜带。通过野外实地考察及前人资料分析,认为该区晚第四纪以来的构造变形主要集中于喀桑托开逆断裂-背斜带、秋里塔格逆断裂-背斜带和最南缘的亚肯逆断裂-背斜带之上,而且不同构造带之间的变形方式存在较大差异。作者利用全站仪(total station)对上述构造带的变形地貌进行了精确测量,并结合年代学分析,得到喀桑托开逆断裂-背斜的地壳缩短速率为1·0~2·0mm/a,秋里塔格逆断裂-背斜带的地壳缩短速率为2·5~3·0mm/a,亚肯盲逆断裂-背斜的地壳缩短速率为1·5~2·0mm/a。晚第四纪以来,库车坳陷SN向总的地壳缩短速率不<5·0~7·0mm/a     

玛纳斯地震区地壳浅部构造特征探测研究

采用高精度的浅层地震勘控方法和先进的数据处理技术，查明了玛纳斯地震区玛纳斯背斜的浅部地壳结构特征，它主要由一个逆掩推覆构造和两个局部背斜组成，存在一条盲断层和两知地表出露断层，结合附近地质资料和钻井资料，确定了每条断层的活动年代，为进一步研究该区的深浅部构造之间的关系和玛纳斯地震的发震机制提供了可靠的浅层资料     

ACTIVE FAULTS AND THEIR FORMATION MECHANISM IN THE EAST SEGMENT OF QIULITAGE ANTICLINE BELT,KUQA DEPRESSION

Based on geological and geomorphologic characteristics of the surface faults acquired by field investigations and subsurface structure from petroleum seismic profiles, this paper analyzes the distribution, activity and formation mechanism of the surface faults in the east segment of Qiulitage anticline belt which lies east of the Yanshuigou River and consists of two sub-anticlines:Kuchetawu anticline and east Qiulitage anticline. The fault lying in the core of Kuchetawu anticline is an extension branch of the detachment fault developed in Paleogene salt layer, and evidence shows it is a late Pleistocene fault. The faults developed in the fold hinge in front of the Kuchetawu anticline in a parallel group and having a discontinuous distribution are fold-accommodation faults controlled by local compressive stress. However, trenching confirms that these fold-accommodation faults have been active since the late Holocene and have recorded part of paleoearthquakes in the active folding zone. The fault developed in the south limb near the core of eastern Qiulitage anticline is a low-angle thrust fault, likely a branch of the upper ramp which controls the development of the eastern Qiulitage anticline. The faults lying in the south limb of eastern Qiulitage anticline are shear-thrust faults, which are developed in the steeply dipping frontal limb of the fault-propagation folds, and also characterized by group occurrence and discontinuous distribution. Several fault outcrops are discovered near Gekuluke, in which the Holocene diluvial fans are dislocated by these faults, and trench shows they have recorded several paleoearthquakes. The surface anticlines of rapid growth and associated accommodation faults are the manifestations of the deep faults that experienced complex folding deformation and propagated upward to the near surface, serving as an indicator of faulting at depth. The fold-accommodation faults are merely local deformation during the folding process, which are indirectly related with the deep faults that control the growth of folds. The displacement and slip rate of these surface faults cannot match the kinematics parameters of the deeper fault, which controls the development of the active folding. However, these active fold-accommodation faults can partly record paleoearthquakes taking place in the active folding zone.     

THE RESEARCH OF THE SEISMOGENIC STRUCTURE OF THE LUSHAN EARTHQUAKE BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF THE DEEP SEISMIC DATA AND THE SURFACE TECTONIC DEFORMATION

The seismogenic structure of the Lushan earthquake has remained in suspensed until now. Several faults or tectonics, including basal slipping zone, unknown blind thrust fault and piedmont buried fault, etc, are all considered as the possible seismogenic structure. This paper tries to make some new insights into this unsolved problem. Firstly, based on the data collected from the dynamic seismic stations located on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault deployed by the Institute of Earthquake Science from 2008 to 2009 and the result of the aftershock relocation and the location of the known faults on the surface, we analyze and interpret the deep structures. Secondly, based on the terrace deformation across the main earthquake zone obtained from the dirrerential GPS meaturement of topography along the Qingyijiang River, combining with the geological interpretation of the high resolution remote sensing image and the regional geological data, we analyze the surface tectonic deformation. Furthermore, we combined the data of the deep structure and the surface deformation above to construct tectonic deformation model and research the seismogenic structure of the Lushan earthquake. Preliminarily, we think that the deformation model of the Lushan earthquake is different from that of the northern thrust segment ruptured in the Wenchuan earthquake due to the dip angle of the fault plane. On the southern segment, the main deformation is the compression of the footwall due to the nearly vertical fault plane of the frontal fault, and the new active thrust faults formed in the footwall. While on the northern segment, the main deformation is the thrusting of the hanging wall due to the less steep fault plane of the central fault. An active anticline formed on the hanging wall of the new active thrust fault, and the terrace surface on this anticline have deformed evidently since the Quaterary, and the latest activity of this anticline caused the Lushan earthquake, so the newly formed active thrust fault is probably the seismogenic structure of the Lushan earthquake. Huge displacement or tectonic deformation has been accumulated on the fault segment curved towards southeast from the Daxi country to the Taiping town during a long time, and the release of the strain and the tectonic movement all concentrate on this fault segment. The Lushan earthquake is just one event during the whole process of tectonic evolution, and the newly formed active thrust faults in the footwall may still cause similar earthquake in the future.     

Geological setting of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake

The source of the 8 October 2005 earthquake of M 7.6 was the northwest-striking Balakot–Bagh (B–B) fault, which had been mapped by the Geological Survey of Pakistan prior to the earthquake but had not been recognized as active except for a 16-km section near Muzaffarabad. The fault follows the Indus–Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ); both cut across and locally offset the Hazara–Kashmir Syntaxis defined by the Main Boundary and Panjal thrusts. The fault has no expression in facies of the Miocene–Pleistocene Siwalik Group but does offset late Pleistocene terrace surfaces in Pakistan-administered Jammu-Kashmir. Two en-échelon anticlines near Muzaffarabad and Balakot expose Precambrian Muzaffarabad Limestone and are cut by the B–B fault on their southwest sides, suggesting that folding and exposure of Precambrian rocks by erosion accompanied Quaternary displacement along the fault. The B–B fault has reverse separation, northeast side up; uplift of the northeast side accompanied displacement, producing higher topography and steeper stream gradients northeast of the fault. No surface expression of the B–B fault has been found northwest of the syntaxis, although the IKSZ and steeper stream gradients continue at least as far as the Indus River, the site of the Pattan earthquake of M 6.2 in 1974. To the southeast, northwest-striking faults were mapped by the Geological Survey of Pakistan. One of these faults, the Riasi thrust, cuts across the southwest flank of an anticline exposing Precambrian limestone. Farther southeast, in Indian-administered territory, Holocene activity on the Riasi thrust has been described. In the Kangra reentrant still farther southeast, active faulting may follow the Soan thrust, along which Holocene and Pleistocene offsets have been described. The Soan thrust, rather than the south flank of the Janauri anticline, may represent the surface projection of the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8.     

Crustal structure in northern margin of Tianshan mountains and seismotectonics of the 1906 Manas earthquake

Introduction The Tianshan orogenic belt between the Tarim and Junggar basins has re-uplifted in Cenozoic due to the collision and the northwards push-compression of Asia-India plate. The special active tectonic zones have been formed along both south and north margins of the Tianshan mountains (FENG, et al, 1991). The Tianshan seismic belt is one of the major seismic belts in China. A se-ries of strong earthquakes occurred in two flanks of the Tianshan mountains in 20th century, such as …     

西南天山-塔里木盆地结合带浅深构造关系 ——深地震反射剖面的初步揭露

盆山结合部的浅-深结构样式是进行陆内造山动力学研究与讨论的重要依据.2007年,在喀什东的天山与塔里木盆地之间的过渡带上,完成了一条近南北向的长度为121 km的主动源深地震反射剖面,显示出盆山结合部现今地壳尺度的构造格架.剖面南部呈现出10~12 km巨厚的沉积盖层,沉积盖层内发育滑脱断层;盆山结合部多排隆起构造以及天山山前上地壳显现出向北倾斜的断裂与地表地质观察吻合;盆山结合带展现出滑脱与逆冲推覆构造相关的断层褶皱;与塔里木盆地稳定沉积层相比,在南天山浅、中层地层受到强烈的变形改造,导致地层比较破碎,反射变弱、连续性较差;时间剖面上可以追踪到比较连续的Moho反射,从南向北有加深的趋势.深地震反射剖面揭露出的西南天山与塔里木盆地的这些浅-深构造,展现出塔里木盆地盖层向南天山滑脱与南天山向塔里木盆地逆冲推覆的特征,反映出陆内汇聚下的盆山耦合关系.     

MECHANISM OF THE 2016 HUTUBI,XINJIANG, MS6.2 MAINSHOCK AND RELOCATION OF ITS AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES

A strong earthquake with magnitude M_S6.2 hit Hutubi, Xinjiang at 13:15:03 on December 8th, 2016(Beijing Time). In order to better understand its mechanism, we performed centroid moment tensor inversion using the broadband waveform data recorded at stations from the Xinjiang regional seismic network by employing gCAP method. The best double couple solution of the M_S6.2 mainshock on December 8th, 2016 estimated from local and near-regional waveforms is strike:271°, dip:64ånd rake:90° for nodal plane I, and strike:91°, dip:26ånd rake:90°for nodal plane Ⅱ; the centroid depth is about 21km and the moment magnitude(M_W)is 5.9. ISO, CLVD and DC, the full moment tensor, of the earthquake accounted for 0.049%, 0.156% and 99.795%, respectively. The share of non-double couple component is merely 0.205%. This indicates that the earthquake is of double-couple fault mode, a typical tectonic earthquake featuring a thrust-type earthquake of squeezing property.The double difference(HypoDD)technique provided good opportunities for a comparative study of spatio-temporal properties and evolution of the aftershock sequences, and the earthquake relocation was done using HypoDD method. 486 aftershocks are relocated accurately and 327 events are obtained, whose residual of the RMS is 0.19, and the standard deviations along the direction of longitude, latitude and depth are 0.57km, 0.6km and 1.07km respectively. The result reveals that the aftershocks sequence is mainly distributed along the southern marginal fault of the Junggar Basin, extending about 35km to the NWW direction as a whole; the focal depths are above 20km for most of earthquakes, while the main shock and the biggest aftershock are deeper than others. The depth profile shows a relatively steep dip angle of the seismogenic fault plane, and the aftershocks dipping northward. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution features of the aftershocks, it is considered that the seismogenic fault plane may be the nodal plane I and the dip angle is about 271°. The structure of the Hutubi earthquake area is extremely complicated. The existing geological structure research results show that the combination zone between the northern Tianshan and the Junggar Basin presents typical intracontinental active tectonic features. There are numerous thrust fold structures, which are characterized by anticlines and reverse faults parallel to the mountains formed during the multi-stage Cenozoic period. The structural deformation shows the deformation characteristics of longitudinal zoning, lateral segmentation and vertical stratification. The ground geological survey and the tectonic interpretation of the seismic data show that the recoil faults are developed near the source area of the Hutubi earthquake, and the recoil faults related to the anticline are all blind thrust faults. The deep reflection seismic profile shows that there are several listric reverse faults dipping southward near the study area, corresponding to the active hidden reverse faults; At the leading edge of the nappe, there are complex fault and fold structures, which, in this area, are the compressional triangular zone, tilted structure and northward bedding backthrust formation. Integrating with geological survey and seismic deep soundings, the seismogenic fault of the M_S6.2 earthquake is classified as a typical blind reverse fault with the opposite direction close to the southern marginal fault of the Junggar Basin, which is caused by the fact that the main fault is reversed by a strong push to the front during the process of thrust slip. Moreover, the Manas earthquake in 1906 also occurred near the southern marginal fault in Junggar, and the seismogenic mechanism was a blind fault. This suggests that there are some hidden thrust fault systems in the piedmont area of the northern Tianshan Mountains. These faults are controlled by active faults in the deep and contain multiple sets of active faults.     

Thrust geometries in unconsolidated Quaternary sediments and evolution of the Eupchon Fault, southeast Korea

Abstract The Korean peninsula is widely regarded as being located at the relatively stable eastern margin of the Asian continent. However, more than 10 Quaternary faults have recently been discovered in and reported from the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. One of these, the Eupchon Fault, was discovered during the construction of a primary school, and it is located close to a nuclear power plant. To understand the nature and characteristics of the Quaternary Eupchon Fault, we carried out two trench surveys near the discovery site. The fault system includes one main reverse fault (N20°E/40°SE) with approximately 4 m displacement, and a series of branch faults, cutting unconsolidated Quaternary sediments. Structures in the fault system include synthetic and antithetic faults, hanging‐wall anticlines, drag folds, back thrusts, pop‐up structures, flat‐ramp geometries and duplexes, which are very similar to those seen in thrust systems in consolidated rocks. In the upper part of the fault system, several tip damage zones are observed, indicating that the fault system propagates upward and terminates in the upper part of the section. Pebbles along the main fault plane show a preferred orientation of long axes, indicating the fault trace. The unconformity surface between the Quaternary deposits and the underlying Tertiary andesites or Cretaceous sedimentary rocks is displaced by this fault with a reverse movement sense. The stratigraphic relationship shows normal slip sense at the lower part of the section, indicating that the fault had a normal slip movement and was reversely reactivated during the Quaternary. The inferred length of the Quaternary thrust fault, based on the relationship between fault length and displacement, is 200–2000 m. The current maximum horizontal compressive stress direction in this area is generally east‐northeast–west‐southwest, which would be expected to produce oblique slip on the Eupchon Fault, with reverse and right‐lateral strike‐slip components.     

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带西段地震构造研究

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带位于帕米尔地区东北侧,地震活动强烈。文中通过地质构造剖面、深部探测资料和地震震源机制解资料,综合研究了该区的地震构造模型。结果认为,该区的构造活动主要表现为天山地块逆冲于塔里木地块之上。天山构造系统包括迈丹断裂及其前缘推覆构造;塔里木构造系统包括深部的塔里木北缘断裂、基底共轭断层和浅部的推覆构造。塔里木北缘断裂是发育于塔里木地壳内部的高角度断裂,其形成原因在于塔里木和天山构造变形方向的差异。塔里木北缘断裂为研究区大地震的主要发震构造,天山推覆构造和塔里木基底断裂系统均具有不同性质的中强地震发震能力     

中西部冲断带多尺度地球物理解释及其物理模拟实验

中西部冲断带形成于两古板块"镶嵌式"拼接成陆后的再冲断.多尺度地球物理资料解释表明,浅层构造变形具有"横向有序分带、垂向多属性分层、纵向差异分段"特征,深部构造变形表现为分层解耦和差异收缩,造山带与盆地的岩石圈在咬合冲断时强-弱层对置.本文利用物理模拟实验和延时摄影方法,基于"挤压-碰撞"模型正演了冲断带变形过程,实验结果表明:造山带仰冲盆地并相互拼接,前者冲起折返,后者前陆冲断;盆内滑脱层的存在会产生构造分层,上构造层的变形以断层相关褶皱为主,且扩展范围受控于滑脱层;上构造层的挤压缩短量比下构造层大,变形扩展更远;下构造层的变形以叠瓦构造和双重构造为主,其断层倾角由前陆向腹陆逐渐增大,断面由下凹变为上凸,断片由侧向叠置变为垂向叠置;高角度逆断层的变形经历了脆性变形、韧-脆性变形和韧性变形三个阶段.     

托斯台逆断裂-褶皱带晚第四纪活动特征

托斯台逆断裂-褶皱带位于乌鲁木齐山前坳陷的西部,为近东西向展布的新生代逆断裂．背斜带。它主要由北单斜带、中部背斜带和南单斜带3个构造带组成,在各构造带均发育逆活动断裂。地震勘探资料显示,南单斜带与中部背斜带为滑脱体,逆断裂在深部沿滑脱面与清水河子深断裂相汇。研究表明,北单斜带与中部背斜带逆断裂断错了晚更新世堆积物,在晚更新世有显著的活动;南单斜带逆断裂断错了全新世堆积物,在全新世时期有最新活动。中部背斜带逆断裂晚更新世以来水平缩短速率为0．6～1．3mm／a;南单斜逆断裂全新世水平缩短速率为0．2～0．6mm／a。     

Fault-related folds and an imbricate thrust system on the northwestern margin of the northern Fossa Magna region, central Japan

Abstract   The Nishikubiki Mountains, which are located on the northwestern margin of the northern Fossa Magna region, central Japan, and the area offshore to the north of the mountains are underlain by folded and faulted Neogene and Quaternary sequences. The folds are composed of open, symmetric anticlines or tight, asymmetric anticlines trending north 20–70° east. On the basis of the geometry of the anticlines and growth strata, the symmetric and asymmetric anticlines are interpreted as fault-bend folds and fault-propagation folds, respectively. The formation of the anticlines is attributed to the growth of an imbricate thrust system composed of three thrust sheets that developed, from southeast to northwest, mainly in the late Pliocene, early Pleistocene, and middle Pleistocene–Holocene. The horizontal component of the northwestern-most sheet was estimated to be approximately 1.2 km on the basis of the width of the growth triangle, and the thickness of the sheet at its southeast margin was estimated to be 8.5 km on the basis of area balancing along one of the seismic profiles. The thrust is inferred to extend to a depth of more than 10 km toward the southwest. The three thrust sheets are probably connected by a detachment zone along the boundary between the upper and lower crusts. The anticlines are bounded by the Itoigawa–Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) to the west and by lateral ramps or tip lines to the northeast. The ISTL possibly continues northward offshore into the Toyama Trough. The structural model proposed in this paper suggests that similar thrust systems are wide spread in the northern Fossa Magna region and that active deformation zones have migrated and switched during the past 2–3 million years along the fold belt.     

2008年汶川8.0级地震地表垂直和水平位移场模拟计算分析

本文采用Okada及Steketee的断裂位错模型,从理论上计算了龙门山中央主断裂和前山断裂在汶川地震中逆冲和走滑错动形成的地表位移场,包括地表垂直和水平位移场的基本特征。并将计算结果与地震科考成果进行了比较,发现计算结果与现场地表变形考察结果在变化趋势上表现出一致性。同时通过计算揭示了断裂错动过程中离断裂一定范围内的地表位移场变化情况,计算结果表明断裂错动形成的地表垂直存在较大的空间不均匀性,且主要集中于断裂的端部即映秀、北川和青川附近,并且位移场在这些地方变化都较强烈。水平位移场主要集中于北川以北的地区,水平位移场的空间变化比较均匀。     

PISHAN MS6.5 EARTHQUAKE OF XINJIANG: A FOLD EARTHQUAKE EVENT IN THE WEST KUNLUN PIEDMONT

The Pishan M_S6.5 earthquake occurred in the west Kunlun piedmont area. According to the surface deformation data obtained by the Pishan M_S6.5 earthquake emergency field investigation team, combined with the positioning accuracy of spatial distribution of aftershocks information, the focal mechanism solutions and deep oil profile data, we think the Pishan M_S6.5 earthquake is a typical thrust faulting event, and the seismogenic structure is the Pishan reverse fault-anticline, which did not produced obvious surface fault zone on the surface. In the vicinity of the core of the Pishan anticline, we found some tensional ground fissures whose strikes are all basically consistent with the anticline. We propose that the surface deformation is caused by the folding and uplift of the anticline. The Pishan earthquake is a typical folding earthquake. The tectonic deformation of the west Kunlun piedmont is dominated by the thickening and shortening of the upper crust which is the typical thin-skinned nappe tectonic. The Pishan earthquake occurred in the frontal tectonic belt, the root fault of the nappe structure has not been broken, and we should pay attention to the seismic risk of the Tekilik Fault.     

西南天山柯坪逆冲推覆构造带的地壳缩短分析

柯坪逆冲推覆构造带是西南天山山前晚新生代以来形成的活动逆断裂-褶皱带,由5~6排近平行的弧形褶皱带组成,出露地层为寒武系—第四系。背斜形态多为复式箱状背斜和不对称的斜歪背斜,分别与断层弯曲背斜和断层扩展背斜的几何形态一致。地震勘探资料显示,各褶皱带前缘活动逆断裂在深部归并于统一的、由寒武系中的石膏层组成的滑脱面。滑脱面深度具有南浅北深、东浅西深的特点,皮羌断裂西侧滑脱面深度约为9km,东侧滑脱面深度为5km。在柯坪逆冲推覆构造中部的皮羌断裂东西两侧各5km和8km的位置,以断层弯曲褶皱和断层扩展褶皱构造模型为指导,用线长平衡的方法完成了2条长度分别为78km和73km的平衡地质剖面,恢复到变形前的形态后计算出这2条剖面上的地壳缩短量分别为40km和45km,缩短率为33%和37%。由于对柯坪逆冲推覆构造开始形成时间的证据较少,所以要计算长期的缩短速率是比较困难的。对比天山南麓库车活动逆断裂-褶皱带的形成时代,以及柯坪逆冲推覆构造与印干断裂的关系,认为柯坪逆冲推覆构造形成于第四纪早期的西域砾岩沉积阶段,按距今2.5Ma计算,柯坪逆冲推覆构造的地壳缩短速率是15.4~17.3mm/a     

2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师6.8级地震发震构造

2003年2月24日发生在新疆塔里木盆地的巴楚-伽师6.8级地震可能是1997—1998年伽师强震群的继续,但其震源机制解、破裂过程与1997—1998年的强震群有一定的差别。从地震重新定位的结果看,巴楚-伽师6.8级地震与塔西南坳陷东侧麦盖提斜坡带上发育的一组NWW向隐伏逆断层有关,地震宏观考察①所发现的与构造变形有关的地裂缝也与这一隐伏断层带的位置相吻合,等震线形态与隐伏断层带的走向一致,极震区的形态与断层的破裂方向基本一致。这些均表明这次地震是盆地内一条近EW向北倾逆断层自NW向SE由深至浅破裂的结果     

库车坳陷深浅构造变形与地震关系浅析

通过研究库车地区的地震活动性 ,由地震分布的规律性推断可能的基底断裂 ,并分析了基底活动断裂与地表构造的对应关系、盖层变形和基底变形特征的差异及成因。结果表明 :1)地震震中分布揭示库车坳陷内对应东、西秋里塔格背斜带位置上 ,基底中发育东秋里塔格深断裂和南、北秋里塔格深断裂 ;另外 ,依奇克里克背斜和亚肯背斜位置上也存在对应的深断裂 ,这表明地表构造的形成受深部构造的控制。 2 )依奇克里克构造西端至东秋 5井连线位置上发育 1条NE向走滑断裂 ,在拜城西侧发 1条NW走向的活动断裂 ,这 2条切穿构造走向的活动断裂是库车坳陷构造分段的主因。 3)基底和盖层变形特征的差异主要源于二者之间介质特性的差异。盆地基底岩石圈强度非常高 ,决定了其变形以脆性破裂———地震活动为主 ;而盖层中沉积岩层强度较弱 ,且存在煤和膏盐等极软弱的薄层 ,在构造挤压作用下 ,可以产生黏性或塑性流动大变形及顺层无震滑脱     

北天山地区活动逆断裂-褶皱带构造与潜在震源区估计

北天山山前逆断裂－褶皱带是典型的大陆内部活动挤压构造,该地区的地表活动构造、隐伏活动构造及活动背斜都受地下深处近水平滑脱断层控制。对１９０６年玛纳斯地震（Ｍ７．７）的发震构造、地表变形与破裂特征和山前活动逆断裂带上古地震的研究表明,北天山山前隐伏活动深断坡具备大地震发生的构造条件,大致以金钩河为界分为东西两段,相应地构成两个大地震潜在震源（Ｍ８）。山前第２条玛纳斯逆断裂－褶皱带和第３条独山子逆断裂－褶皱带中的各个活动背斜,以及西湖隆起等可能是８个中强地震的潜在震源（Ｍ６）。