首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 375 毫秒
1.
The Tarim River lies in the inland area of Northwest China, which has a semiarid or arid climate. Because of relatively scarce precipitation in this area, the main water resource is runoff from a mountainous drainage basin. It is very important to ascertain variations of regular hydrologic and meteorological time series data. Through the use of monthly precipitation and hydrologic data in the three headstream mountain areas of the Tarim River over the past 50 years, this work analyzes the variation of a drought–flood index and annual runoff volume, along with spatio-temporal structures of the index related to runoff at multiple time scales, via non-parametric testing and a wavelet transform method. Wavelet transform can clearly demonstrate many characteristics of the time series, including trend, shift, and major periods. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the drought–flood indices showed increasing trends for the Aksu and Yarkand rivers, and rose non-significantly for Hotan River. The indices of the three headstreams changed remarkably (p < 0.05) in 1986. The curves of wavelet variance show that significant periods of the indices are 4 and 8 years for Aksu and Hotan rivers, and 8 and 10 years for Yarkand River; (2) runoff of the Aksu and Hotan rivers had significant periods of 6 and 8 years, plus 3 and 9 years for Hotan River; (3) there was significant correlation between the drought–flood indices and annual runoff volume in the three headstreams. The results provide important information toward achieving predictability of flood and drought in Northwest China.  相似文献   

2.
Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km2. The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds.  相似文献   

3.
We apply Fourier and wavelet analyses to the precipitation and sunspot numbers in the time series (1901–2000) over Australia (27°S, 133°E), Canada (60°N, 95°W), Ethiopia (8°N, 38°E), Greenland (72°N, 40°W), United Kingdom (54°N, 2°W), India (20°N, 77°E), Iceland (65°N, 18°W), Japan (36°N, 138°E), United States (38°N, 97°W), South Africa (29°S, 24°E) and Russia (60°N, 100°E). Correlation analyses were also performed to find any relation among precipitation, sunspot numbers, temperature, and cloud-cover at the same spatial and temporal scale. Further correlations were also performed between precipitation with electron and proton fluence at the time interval, 1987–2006. All these parameters were considered in annual and seasonal scales. Though correlation study between precipitation and other parameters do not hint any linear relation, still the Fourier and wavelet analyses give an idea of common periodicities. The 9–11 year periodicity of sunspot numbers calculated by Fourier transform is also confirmed by wavelet transform in annual scale. Similarly, wavelet analysis for precipitation also supports the short periods at 2–5 years which is verified by Fourier transform in discontinuous time over different geographic regions.  相似文献   

4.
This paper analyzes the relationship between meteorological catastrophic factors and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of Nanjing city (China). The sample spans the period 1980–2010, including GDP growth rate and meteorological catastrophic factors (extreme precipitation, extreme temperature and extreme wind speed). We utilize econometric methods to take co-integration analysis and Granger causality test among GDP growth rate and the time series of meteorological catastrophic factors of Nanjing city processed by buffer operators. Finally, the paper shows the short-term changes in minimum atmospheric pressure, extreme high temperature, and minimum relative humidity, which has a positive impact on GDP; the cumulative effect of extreme precipitation and GDP affects each other to some extent, they are mutually Granger causes. Moreover, at the 95 % confidence level, we believe that maximum wind speed is the Granger causation of GDP growth rate.  相似文献   

5.
To discover the mechanism of the continuous summer temperature decline in certain regions against significant global warming,456 national meteorological observational stations with long term of observed daily temperature and precipitation data were applied to analyze the relationship between precipitation and temperature.Results show that there is a significant negative correlation between precipitation and temperature,indicating that precipitation influences temperature signifi-cantly:the more the precipit...  相似文献   

6.
Based on monthly meteorological data from 11 stations(1959-2015)in Qinghai Basin(QHB) and its surrounding area, we analyzed monthly average temperature(Tmean), average maximum(TXam), minimum temperature(TNam) and precipitation variation characteristics as well as the influence of atmospheric oscillation on these parameters using Mann-Kendall trend analysis, mutation analysis, continuous Morlet wavelet transform, Pearson correlation analysis and R/S analysis method. In addition, the future trend of climate change in the regional scale was also discussed. We found that the temperature and precipitation increment were obvious in the region, especially the Tmean in autumn, winter, TXam and TNam in summer and winter precipitation showing significant increase. Temperature and precipitation experienced abrupt changes around 1986 and 2002, respectively. The period of oscillation of each temperature indices was similar featuring 2~3 years,8~10 years short- cycle and 30~32 years middle- cycle, while that for the precipitation featured 3~4 years,6~7 years short- cycle and 30~32 years middle- cycle. The East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(EASMI) anomaly is an important factor for the anomaly of autumn temperature and summer precipitation in QHB, while the Indian Summer Monsoon Index(ISMI) mainly affects the spring temperature and precipitation in the research area. The effects of Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) were relatively strong on temperature variation, especially in autumn and winter, and AO had significant effect on the precipitation in spring, summer and winter, too. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and ENSO have weak influence on the study area, NAO mainly affects summer and winter precipitation, while ENSO mainly affects autumn precipitation. The Hurst index of Tmean and annual precipitation in QHB are higher than 0.5, indicating that the temperature and precipitation in the study area will continue to be the positive trend in the future period.  相似文献   

7.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the atmospheric water cycle in Lanzhou and surrounding areas, a place sensitive to climatic conditions and located in the vertex of the “Monsoon Triangle” of China; this study obtained 243 event-based precipitation samples from four stations in Lanzhou, Yongdeng, Yuzhong and Gaolan for 1 year from April 2011 to March 2012. The seasonal variations of δ 18O and d excess indicate that westerly water vapor, local moisture and summer monsoon all have an influence in this region on a large scale. The westerlies play a dominant role. However, the impact of monsoon moisture has a seasonal limitation, mainly during the period from June to early August. On a local scale, the transportation of moisture appears via two routes. The contribution rate of recycling moisture, over the region, is only 3.6 % on average due to the deficiency of water resource in arid and semi-arid land. Additionally, the effect of secondary evaporation has also been discussed, and the results show that relative humidity, temperature and precipitation amount have different impacts on the effect. However, the influence of precipitation amount is not obvious when the rainfall amount is below 10 mm, while the meteorological parameters of relative humidity and temperature play a significant role in that scope.  相似文献   

8.
Shallow estuarine lagoons characterize >70 % of the eastern Alaskan Beaufort Sea coastline and, like temperate and tropical lagoons, support diverse and productive biological communities. These lagoons experience large variations in temperature (?2 to 14 °C) and salinity (0 to >45) throughout the year. Unlike lower latitude coastal systems, transitions between seasons are physically extreme and event-driven. On Arctic coastlines, a brief summer open-water period is followed by a 9-month ice-covered period that concludes with a late-spring sea ice breakup and intense freshwater run-off. From 2011 to 2014, we examined interannual variations in water column physical structure (temperature, salinity, and δ18O) in five lagoons that differ with respect to their degree of exchange with adjacent marine waters and magnitude of freshwater inputs. Temperature, salinity, and source water composition (calculated using a salinity and δ18O mixing model) were variable in space and time. During sea ice breakup in June, water column δ18O and salinity measurements showed that low salinity waters originated from meteoric inputs (50–80 %; which include river inputs and direct precipitation) and sea ice melt (18–51 %). Following breakup, polar marine waters became prevalent within a mixed water column over the summer open-water period within all five lagoons (26–63 %). At the peak of ice-cover extent and thickness in April, marine water sources dominated (75–87 %) and hypersaline conditions developed in some lagoons. Seasonal runoff dynamics and differences in lagoon geomorphology (i.e., connectivity to the Beaufort Sea) are considered key potential drivers of observed salinity and source water variations.  相似文献   

9.
Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is an important indicator for measuring vegetation coverage, which is of great significance for evaluating vegetation dynamics and vegetation restoration. It can clearly analyze the suitable growth condition of vegetation by studying the relationship between meteorological factors, soil moisture and NDVI. Based on MODIS/NDVI data, the spatio-temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) were analyzed by the trend analysis method. The relationship of NDVI with meteorological factors and NDVI with soil moisture simulated by the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was analyzed in this paper. The results show that NDVI values gradually change with an increase from north to south in the WRB. The maximum of the average monthly NDVI is 0.702 (August) and the minimum is 0.288 in February from 2000 to 2015. The results of the seven grades of NDVI trend line slope indicate that the improvement area of vegetation coverage accounts for 30.93% of the total basin, and the degradation area and basically unchanged area account for 23% and 42.9%, respectively. The annual mean soil moisture is 19.37% in the WRB. There was a strong correlation between NDVI and precipitation, temperature, evaporation and soil moisture, and the correlation coefficients were 0.78, 0.89, 0.71 and 0.65, respectively. The ranges of the most suitable growth conditions for vegetation are 80–145 mm (precipitation), 13–23 °C (temperature), 94–144 mm (evaporation) and 25–33% (soil moisture), respectively.  相似文献   

10.
Glaciers are among the most conspicuous and dynamic features on the earth’s surface and are also highly sensitive to changes in climatic parameters. Glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas have been reported to be retreating due to climate forcing. Kolahoi Glacier is one of the largest and important glaciers of the Kashmir Himalayas and is the main source of Liddar River, which is the largest tributary of the Jhelum River system. In the present study, an analysis to assess the response of Kolahoi Glacier to the changing climate was carried out using the Survey of India (SoI) map and multi-temporal Landsat satellite data. The results show a significant change in the spatial extent of Kolahoi Glacier. The total area of this glacier has reduced from 12.21 km2 in 1962 to 11.61 km2 in 2010. An analysis of meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) shows that the average annual temperature increased from 9.1 °C in 1980–1989 to 10.3 °C in 2000–2009, while the precipitation decreased from 1329.44 to 1126.89 mm during the same period. The results suggest that this glacier will be annihilated completely if the same retreating trend continues.  相似文献   

11.
祁连山西段冰川区与非冰川区气温梯度年内变化特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为研究冰川区与非冰川区不同下垫面对气温梯度的影响。本文利用祁连山老虎沟流域4 180 m, 4 550 m和5 040 m处的三个气象站及肃南、肃北、托勒、玉门、酒泉、瓜州、敦煌等七个国家气象站2011-2013年的日平均气温资料,分析了祁连山西段冰川区与非冰川区年内气温梯度特征,并结合相应时段的降水资料以及其他气象因素对其变化特征做了分析。结果表明:(1)在非冰川区,气温梯度随海拔上升而增大,且有明显的月际波动特征,年内梯度呈现先减后增的趋势,夏季最大,冬季最小,年气温梯度为0.50℃·(100m)-1;(2)在冰川区,气温梯度呈现先增后减的趋势,夏季最小,冬季最大,年气温梯度为0.61℃·(100m)-1,日内变化特征为白天气温梯度变化幅度大但值较小,夜间变化幅度小,稳定在0.83℃·(100m)-1左右,日内平均气温梯度为0.49℃·(100m)-1;(3)冰川区与非冰川区年内温度梯度与降水梯度呈相反的变化趋势,表明降水对气温梯度变化有一定的影响。(4)由于非冰川区与冰川区下垫面不同,气温梯度呈相反的年内变化趋势,在由非冰川区气温推算冰面气温时必须考虑温跃值影响,老虎沟12号冰川年平均温跃值为1.30℃。  相似文献   

12.
The main objective of this study is to determine and analyze cold and warm air temperature spells in the last 6 years (2007–2012) and reveal their impact on electrical energy consumption in a small-sized city such as Sombor (Serbia) with less than 50,000 inhabitants. Hourly air temperature values and electrical energy consumption data have been used as database for all methods. Warm and cold temperature spells (during heat and cold waves) have had the increasing tendencies in the last 6 years and they reflect on additional electrical energy consumption. Detailed analysis showed that higher energy demands occur during workdays and daytime period. Monitoring of the amount of consumed energy showed a clear relationship during the winter cold temperature spells, when electrical energy demand was higher than 0.3 MW. In summer period, the relationship was weaker and consumption was higher than 0.15 MW only when temperature exceeded 30 °C. A small number of air condition devices in houses and companies and mainly one-store buildings with thick walls, which make a good insulation from the outside air temperatures, are probably the main reasons for the above-mentioned results in summer. This paper introduces a new method to resolve the problem of short-term load forecasting, based on the support vector machines (SVM) technology and particle swarm optimization that has been used to optimize the SVM parameters. Similar-day-based forecast has shown that similar days for training should be filtered also using classifier of temperature period (cooling degree-days or heating degree-days in a row). Forecasting error is smaller compared to solutions where similar days are found only on season and temperature.  相似文献   

13.
青海省极端气温事件的气候变化特征研究   总被引:9,自引:3,他引:6  
申红艳  马明亮  王冀  王力  李江英 《冰川冻土》2012,34(6):1371-1379
选用青海省37个气象站点1961-2011年近51 a, 逐日气温(最高、 最低、 平均)资料, 采用国际通用的极端气温指数定义计算了9种极端气温指数, 并分析其主要气候特征.结果表明: 近51 a青海省极端气温呈明显上升趋势, 极端冷指标(霜冻、 结冰日数、 冷夜、 冷昼指数)呈下降趋势, 而极端暖指标(夏天日数、 暖夜、 暖昼指数)呈上升趋势, 且极端冷指标的减少幅度高于极端暖指标的增加幅度.空间分布上, 极端气温指数在全省呈一致的上升(下降)趋势分布.在近51 a的时间尺度上各种极端气温指数都存在多个较明显的周期, 如较短的3~8 a的准周期, 以及13 a、 17 a、 27 a的年代际周期特征.青海省年平均气温与极端气温指数有很高的相关性, 气候变暖突变前后极端气温指数表现出明显差异: 在变暖突变发生后, 霜冻日数、 冷夜指数、 冷昼指数、 结冰日数明显减少, 夏天日数、 暖夜指数及暖昼指数明显增加, 其中相对指数几乎呈倍数显著变化, 表明极端气温指数对气候变暖有很好的响应.  相似文献   

14.
An analysis of the occurrences of events related to precipitation, considering extensive and intensive risk, i.e., emergencies and disasters, based on twenty-nine years of data for five cities of Ecuador provided relevant information about the behavior over time of floods, river overflows and landslides. The records of events were examined in the immediate and in the short term, which corresponded to 5 and 30 days, respectively, using the data mining methods k-means and association rules, to identify the patterns that govern their behaviors with respect to the observed amount of precipitation. The results show an increase in the frequency of similar events, with the occurrences being separated by shorter periods in recent decades. The behavior of emergencies and disasters indicates that emergencies are expected for periods of 5 days, with low quantities of precipitation and for periods of 30 days with normal quantities of precipitation. Disasters are expected, for both periods of 5 and 30 days, in the higher quantiles of precipitation. Interrelations between floods, river overflows and landslides were identified in all cities, with at least one relationship between two of the hazards for each city. An apparent floodriver overflowlandslide cycle could explain the mechanics of their occurrence. The information provided by the results indicates the vulnerability of the cities over time, their low capacity to support normal quantities of precipitation and their high exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards. The products obtained could be used together with precipitation prediction to anticipate possible effects and to formulate adequate risk management policies.  相似文献   

15.
Typhoons are one of the major natural hazards occurring frequently in Shanghai. The comprehensive assessment of drought relief by typhoon has become a major concern of scientists and government agencies in Shanghai, China. In this article, with the support of remote sensing data and the available data from local meteorological stations, the regional drought relief was investigated and the change of drought intensity was quantified by the typhoon “Saomai” between 5 and 8 August 2005. The precipitation anomaly calculated on the basis of recorded rainfall was adopted to analyze drought condition changes before and after the typhoon. Then, vegetation supply water index (VSWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to monitor the drought relief due to the consecutive shortage of summer rainfall. Impact of typhoon on drought was compared by VSWI before and after typhoon Saomei. The results showed that the typhoon alleviated the drought of the vegetation by more than 70 %, based on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the ground temperature, relative humidity, high temperature, NDVI from Shanghai area. The result shows that MODIS remote sensing data are a useful quantitative monitoring tool in drought relief by local typhoons. More strategies are necessary to be adopted for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disaster in Shanghai in recent years.  相似文献   

16.
Northeast China as an important agricultural zone for commercial and economic crop in China suffered from increased drought risk that seriously threatened agricultural production and food security in recent decades. Based on precipitation datasets from 71 stations from 1960 to 2009 and on the reliable statistical methods of the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope and the Standardized Precipitation Index, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of drought occurrence during the crop-growing season (from May to September) and summer (from June to August). The results showed that regional mean precipitation during the crop-growing season and summer over the last 40 years has decreased at the rate of ?1.72 and ?1.12 mm/year, respectively. According to timescale analysis of abrupt changes, there were two distinct time series (1965–1983 and 1996–2009) with decreasing precipitation trends at a 95 % confidence level. A comparison between the two time series of these two periods demonstrated that more frequent and more severe drought occurred during 1996–2009. Furthermore, drought risk in recent decades has become even more serious both in severity and in extent. Especially in the crop-growing season of 2001 and summer of 2007, over 25 % (2.0 × 105 km2) of study area experienced severe drought (serious and extreme droughts). Our results highlight the urgent need for the development of effective drought adaptations for cropland over northeast China.  相似文献   

17.
The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is suffering from abnormal cooling of weather conditions and existence of an extreme weather phenomenon known as ice storm Alexa. The present paper investigates the weather conditions over Europe that causes this abnormal weather over the EMME through December of 2013. Daily data sets of several meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, etc.) over the northern hemisphere, including Europe and EMME of December of 2013, have been used through the present work. In addition, to that, a time cross section analysis of the daily operational data for meteorological elements (mean surface temperature, temperature and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, relative humidity, precipitation rate, and sea surface pressure) was done over the EMME for December 2013. The methodology of anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques for the data sets has been used. The results uncovered that the EMME has abnormal and very cold weather conditions due to the inference of meridional blocking persisted over Europe and the existence of the extremely negative geopotential height anomaly aloft over Eastern Europe throughout this month.  相似文献   

18.
Tide gauge data were used to identify the occurrence, characteristics, and cause of tsunamis of meteorological origin (termed ‘meteotsunamis’) along the Western Australian coast. This is the first study to identify meteotsunamis in this region, and the results indicated that they occur frequently. Although meteotsunamis are not catastrophic to the extent of major seismically induced basin-scale events, the wave heights of meteotsunamis examined at some local stations in this study were higher than those recorded through seismic tsunamis. In June 2012, a meteotsunami contributed to an extreme water-level event at Fremantle, which recorded the highest water level in over 115 years. Meteotsunamis (wave heights >0.4 m, when the mean tidal range in the region is ~0.5 m) were found to coincide with thunderstorms in summer and the passage of low-pressure systems during winter. Spectral analysis of tide gauge time series records showed that existing continental seiche oscillations (periods between 30 min and 5 h) were enhanced during the meteotsunamis, with a high proportion of energy transferred to the continental shelf oscillation period. Three recent meteotsunami events (22 March 2010, 10 June 2012, and 7 January 2013) two due to summer thunderstorms and one due to a winter frontal system were chosen for detailed analysis. The meteotsunami amplitudes were up to a factor 2 larger than the local tidal range and sometimes contributed up to 85 % of the non-tidal water signal. A single meteorological event was found to generate several meteotsunamis along the coast, up to 500 km apart, as the air pressure disturbance propagated over the continental shelf; however, the topography and local bathymetry of the continental shelf defined the local sea-level resonance characteristics at each location. With the available data (sea level and meteorological), the exact mechanisms for the generation of the meteotsunamis could not be isolated.  相似文献   

19.
The Central-West region of Argentina was seriously affected by a series of convective summer storms on January–February of 2013 generating many debris flows and rockfall in the Central Andes mountain regions. In particular, the unreported 8th February event caused the sad death of a 10-year-old child being completely ignored by society and local authorities. Despite this, meteorological conditions associated with this event and further episodes were rarely measured and determined mainly due to scarce meteorological stations in Andean mountain areas. In this paper, meteorological data from CMORPH algorithm and measurements of surrounding gauges were analyzed for estimating the triggering precipitation value of this event. As well, the particular debris flow channeled into the main branch of the Amarilla gully in the Agua Negra valley was geomorphologically described. The amount of precipitation associated with this debris flow was 5.5 and 13.2 mm accumulated previous to the event. This violent debris flow was generated in a talus zone in a periglacial environment located just below a covered rock glacier. However, the influence of the permafrost thawing in this process is not feasible. The altitude of the 0 °C isotherm was lower during the previous days of the event, and no monitoring on permafrost is available for this area. The volume of removed mass was estimated in 5 × 104 m3, and the mean velocity was 35 km/h. Boulders of 4 m diameter were found in the source area, while the deposit is up to 75% sandy with clasts that hardly exceed 10 cm in the alluvial fan distal part. Herein the main objective is to advice about the probable catastrophic impact of similar events in the future. These findings could be useful for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Agua Negra international pass under construction.  相似文献   

20.
This study was conducted to reveal the trends of the air temperature and soil temperature for 51 years (1960–2010) and their relationship in four of Korea’s largest metropolitan cities (Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daejeon). Also, the trends of the air and soil temperatures between the studied metropolitan cities and a rural area (Chupungryong) were compared to examine the effect of urban heat. Among the metropolitan cities, the long-term mean soil temperatures (depth 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 3.0, 5.0 m) were lowest (13.34–14.80 °C) in Seoul and highest (16.24–16.54 °C) in Busan, which is mainly the effect of the latitude. The soil temperature exponentially increased with depth in the three cities except for Busan and was closely related to the air temperature. The soil temperatures responded well to the air temperature change (maximum correlation coefficients 0.88–0.98) but this response was slightly delayed with depth. The air and soil temperatures increased at the rates of 0.24–0.40 and 0.11–0.73 °C/decade, respectively, for the period. The increasing rate of the soil temperature was the largest in Daejeon as 0.39–0.73 °C/decade, which was almost 2–4 times greater than those of the other cities (0.11–0.40 °C/decade), and it rose with depth. The increase of the soil temperature was coincident with the increase of the air temperature, which indicates that the soil temperature was largely affected by the increasing of the air temperature. In contrast, the increase in air temperature in Chupungryong (0.06 °C/decade) was significantly lower than in the metropolitan cities. In addition, the increase of the soil temperature in the rural area (0.13 °C/decade) was also much lower than that in the inland cities (0.20–0.27 °C/decade) while it showed no substantial difference from that in the coastal cities (0.11–0.15 °C/decade). Therefore, it is inferred that the soil temperature of the metropolitan cities increased with the increase of the air temperature due to global warming as well as the anthropogenic urban heat.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号