渤海湾盆地东营凹陷现河矿区古近系断裂体系及形成演化

受双重动力背景控制,渤海湾盆地东营凹陷现河矿区古近系伸展与走滑作用叠加明显,明确断裂体系叠加关系对油气勘探意义重大。文章运用高精度地震资料及钻井资料,通过井震结合解释、构造样式识别、断裂活动性定量表征及平衡剖面恢复等技术手段,从断裂类型与组合样式、断裂叠加关系、断裂活动及演化、区域动力学背景等方面开展了深入研究。结果表明:现河矿区古近系发育伸展与伸展-走滑两套断裂体系,伸展-走滑断裂基于先期伸展断裂叠加走滑作用形成。古近系主干断裂存在沙三中期和东营早期两次活动高峰,受控于伸展-走滑应力叠合作用,现河矿区古近系共经历初始伸展阶段（Ek—Es₄）、强伸展阶段（Es₃下—Es₂下）、走滑-弱伸展阶段（Es₂上—Es₁）、再活化伸展阶段（Ed）和定型保留阶段（N—Q）5个主要的断裂演化阶段。      

Resampling methods for evaluating the uncertainty of the nonparametric magnitude distribution estimation in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of magnitude of seismic events is one of the most important probabilistic characteristics in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The magnitude distribution of mining induced seismicity is complex. Therefore, it is estimated using kernel nonparametric estimators. Because of its model-free character the nonparametric approach cannot, however, provide confidence interval estimates for CDF using the classical methods of mathematical statistics.To assess errors in the seismic events magnitude estimation, and thereby in the seismic hazard parameters evaluation in the nonparametric approach, we propose the use of the resampling methods. Resampling techniques applied to a one dataset provide many replicas of this sample, which preserve its probabilistic properties. In order to estimate the confidence intervals for the CDF of magnitude, we have developed an algorithm based on the bias corrected and accelerated method (BC_a method). This procedure uses the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. We refer to this algorithm as the iterated BC_a method. The algorithm performance is illustrated through the analysis of Monte Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues and actual data from an underground copper mine in the Legnica–Głogów Copper District in Poland.The studies show that the iterated BC_a technique provides satisfactory results regardless of the sample size and actual shape of the magnitude distribution.     

Continuous gas monitoring for the assessment of outburst-proneness at a mining face

Summary Continuous gas monitoring has been performed in three development panels at No. 2 Mine, Collinsville, Queensland, Australia to assess seam gassiness at the mining face as an indication of outburst-proneness. The first panel monitored encountered two outbursts during mining of virgin conditions, and a third outburst occurred on the fringe of a gas-drained block, adjacent to a thrust fault. The second panel successfully mined through the thrust fault without outbursting and finally halted due to high gas emissions. The third panel mined through a gas-drained block of coal, where an overall substantial reduction in gas emission was observed.The results from all three panels have been analysed and compared to establish parameters for outburst-proneness assessment, based on a face cut-out cycle (FCC) CO₂ emission. For FCC CO₂ emissions less than 2.6 m³ t^–1, no outbursting occurs, and normal mining proceeds. Up to 3.8 m³ t^–1, low-medium outburst-prone conditions exist and mining takes place under controlled procedures. When values exceed 3.8 m³ t^–1, high outburst-prone conditions exist and mining is halted.     

A correction model for conditional bias in selective mining operations

A nonlinear correction functionK(Z*) is proposed to transform any initial linear grade estimatorZ* into a conditional unbiased estimatorZ**=K(Z*) with reduced conditional estimation variance. Such a corrected estimator allows more accurate prediction of ore reserves at any level of selection performed during the mine lifetime. The correction is based upon an analytical or isofactorial representation of a bivariate distribution model of true gradeZ and its estimatorZ*. This correction model allows derivation of conditional estimation variances for both estimatorsZ* andZ** and provides a solution to the problem of change of support. A case study is presented and performance of the proposed correction model is evaluated in terms of actual conditional bias and mean squared errors. Results obtained stress the practical importance of the correction model in selective mining operations.     

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.     

天津地区雾迷山组地热资源潜力区划

天津地区属于典型的中低温沉积盆地型地热区,地热资源丰富,现已被广泛地应用于地热供暖、生活用水、温泉洗浴等各个方面,取得了显著的社会经济效益。雾迷山组地热资源在天津地区分布广泛,是天津地区最主要的开采层之一。本文通过收集截至2015年底150眼雾迷山组地热井的数据资料,计算得出区内雾迷山组热储在回灌条件下地热资源可采量为14.108×10~8 m~3,地热流体可采热量47.021×10~(16) J/a,折合标准煤1 604.814×10~4 t/a,并对雾迷山组热储层的地热流体热量开采系数、最大水位降速和地热流体热量潜力模数三个指标综合考虑,确定地热资源开发利用潜力,可为今后雾迷山组地热流体的勘查和开发利用提供参考。     

Induced seismicity in potash mining — a finite element study

Summary A number of earthquakes have been recorded in strata above underground potash mines in Saskatchewan, Canada. These seismic events are widely understood to be generated in the carbonate Dawson Bay Formation and, possibly, other superincumbent beds, and are believed to be directly related to mining operations. The mechanical response of these higher strata to mining is not observable andin situ instrumentation for measuring post-mining stresses and strains in the carbonate beds is sparse. Numerical models are believed to be the most effective option for investigating the response of these higher strata to potash mining. In this regard a realistic finite element model based on elasto-plastic material behaviour is developed in this paper. Special capabilities added to this general elasto-plastic model permit simulation of the post-failure behaviour of the rock mass. Possible modes of failure in the Dawson Bay are investigated and the brittle failure of intact limestone is affirmed as the possible mode of failure producing major seismicity. Slip along existing discontinuities in overlying strata is also demonstrated to be another possible mechanism, though with lower energy levels.     

Some source and medium properties of the Vrancea seismic region, Romania

Simple spectral theory of seismic sources was used to determine source parameters directly related to medium properties (stress drop, seismic efficiency and fracture energy) and quality factors of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region. The results show an increase in maximum static stress drop, maximum seismic efficiency and fracture energy with depth. The seismic efficiency is magnitude independent, but the stress drop is magnitude independent only for events with M_L > 3.8; below this value, the logarithm of stress drop increases quasi-linearly with magnitude. In the depth interval 50–160 km the stress drop increases with a slope of about 2–3 bar/km. The fracture energy per unit area of the fault has values of the order of 10⁵–10⁸ erg/cm².The frequency independent quality factors indicate that the attenuation of P waves is generally higher than that of S waves and that Q_p values are in agreement with recent tectonic models for the Vrancea region: total decoupling of the slab now sinking gravitationally is present only in the southwestern part of the Vrancea region, as suggested by the spatial position of intermediate depth hypocenters.     

Late-Quaternary Slip Rate and Seismic Activity of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone in Southwest China

The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts: the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –(3±1) mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas.     

On the assessment of maximum earthquakes in the alps and adjacent areas

Strong tectonic earthquakes within the crust always occur on already existing faults, and they have the property of a shear rupture. Such earthquakes with surface-wave magnitudes M < 7 obviously have a geometric similarity. Because of this similarity and the validity of the Gutenberg and Richter's energy—magnitude relation, the expression M = 2 log₁₀ L + const., with L = focal length, is valid.The expression L_maxL^* for the maximum focal length, is also valid if L^* is the length of the rectilinear extent of the seismic line on which the maximum earthquake occurs. The bounds of L^* may be given by sharp bends and/or by traversing deep faults. Thus the maximum imaginable earthquake on a seismic line with the length L^* has the magnitude M_max = 2 log₁₀ L^* + const.For the investigated region — the Alps and adjacent areas — from the data of recent and historical strong earthquakes, it follows that M_max = 2 log₁₀ L^* + 1.7, if L^* is measured in kilometres. These limiting values lie in the centre-field of the magnitude range for maximum earthquakes, published by Shebalin in 1970. By the aid of this equation it is also possible to assess the upper limiting value of the accompanying maximum scale intensity.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Prediction of strong earthquake within the southwestern shelf of Sakhalin Island and its realization during the August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake

Materials of the long- and short-term predictions of the destructive earthquake with the magnitude M _LH = 6.6 ± 0.6 within the southwestern shelf of Sakhalin Island are described. The long-term prediction was issued in December 2005 and was affirmed by the Russian Council of Experts on Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Assessment in August 2006. The August 17(18), 2006, Gornozavodsk earthquake with a magnitude of M _w = 5.6 was the beginning of the realization of this prediction. Six days after its occurrence, the short-term prediction of a much more serious seismic event in the alarm region was prepared. One year later, the prediction of the August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake with a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 (M _LH = 6.2) proved to be correct.     

Technogenic tectonic seismicity in Kuzbass

This paper presents an analysis of the development of the current seismic state of the Kuznetsk coal basin, which is characterized by an increase in technogenic seismicity of different types under the influence of prolonged intensive mining operations. The development of technogenesis led to a significant increase in technogenic seismicity in the Kuznetsk Basin in the 1970-1980s, when the number of technogenic earthquakes began to exceed the number of natural earthquakes. Among the various types of induced seismicity, special attention is paid to strong technogenic tectonic earthquakes with a regional magnitude M_b ≥ 3 and, accordingly, a seismic energy release of more than 10⁹ J, i.e., earthquakes of energy class K > 9. These small-focus earthquakes are often accompanied by destruction of underground mines, collapse of quarries and pits, damage to surface facilities and equipment, and other adverse effects. In this paper, such earthquakes are defined as technogenic tectonic to emphasize their dual origin: technogenic impacts and the subsequent relaxation of tectonic stresses. It is also noted that the Earth’s interior in Kuzbass initially had its own natural seismicity and a developed system of tectonic faults. Natural seismotectonic activity combined with constantly increasing scales of mining and explosive consumption has led to an increase in the number of technogenic seismic events and their intensity. A striking example of such an event was the 18 June, 2013 Bachat earthquake with a regional magnitude M_b= 5.8 and a seismic intensity of 7 in the epicentral zone. It was the world’s largest man-made earthquake induced by the mining of solid minerals. We consider the possible causes of this catastrophic earthquake and discuss the conditions favoring the formation of foci of such technogenic tectonic earthquakes resulting from changes in the geodynamic and hydrogeological conditions in the Earth’s crust under man-caused impacts. These induced changes in natural processes are accompanied by a change in the stress-strain state, resulting in the concentration of tectonic stresses at heterogeneities and in fault zones, which become sources of induced technogenic seismicity.The paper discusses the current period of the occurrence and increase in such anthropogenic seismicity in the Kuzbass region with increasing scales of coal mining and blasting. Over the last 20 years, the consumption of explosives at Kuzbass enterprises increased from 100-200 to 500-600 thousand tons per year, and, accordingly, the amounts of broken and transported rock increased from several million tons per year to a billion tons per year, which disturbed the dynamic equilibrium in the Earth’s crust and changed the existing field of tectonic stresses. Moreover, the continuously increasing consumption of explosives has also increased the technogenic impact on the crust structures. The location of the epicenters of large-scale blasts inducing seismic events with regional magnitudes M_b= 3.0-4.5 has made it possible to identify regions with the greatest technogenic impact in Kuzbass. Using the data of the ISC seismological catalog, we separated seismic events with the above magnitudes into day and night ones. Since blasting work is forbidden at night, night seismic events are referred to as technogenic tectonic earthquakes (night event criterion). The maximum magnitude of seismic events induced by blasting operations in the Kuznetsk Basin was estimated at M_b ≤ 4.4. The annual number of technogenic tectonic earthquakes with 3.0 ≤ M_b ≤ 3.4, 3.5 ≤ M_b ≤ 3.9, 4.0 ≤ M_b ≤ 4.4, and M_b ≥ 4.5 was determined based on the night event criterion. The regions of their occurrence were identified from the location of the epicenters of technogenic tectonic earthquakes.     

Effects of quarry mining and of other environmental impacts in the mountainous Chicam-Toctina drainage basin (Córdoba, Argentina)

 The environmental conditions prevailing in the Chicam-Toctina drainage system (approx. 138 km² in Córdoba, Argentina) are considered representative of a number of catchments in Argentina's Sierras Pampeanas Range. Two groups of ions reflect the sources of dissolved species in the catchment: a) a group (Cl^–, SO^2– ₄, and Na⁺) which recognizes natural and anthropogenic sources, and which exhibits significant correlations with N^– ₃ and NO^– ₂, and b) another group of components (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and HCO^– ₃) which is clearly controlled by carbonate rocks and their waste rock products. In the headwaters, stockpiled marble quarry mining wastes provide a more open system to CO₂ gaseous exchange than the outcropping rocks, thus promoting the increase of carbonate dissolution (up to 4.88 g km^–2 s^–1 during the rainy season). This specific yield was 20% higher than the amount estimated for an area with fewer extended mining activities. The dissolved load delivered by the upper reaches is subjected in the lower drainage area to various processes, mainly controlled by the presence of the city of Alta Gracia (approx. 40,000 inhabitants). In the dry season, due to nutrient inputs supplied by the city, photosynthetic activity plays a major role controlling stream pH. Hence, the high values of calcite saturation indexes and the increase of CaCO₃ concentration in bed sediments can be explained by calcite precipitation. Such a process could be accompanied by the coprecipitation on calcium carbonate of low solubility heavy metal carbonates. Received : 17 January 1997 · Accepted : 31 March 1997     

Shear wave velocity and attenuation structure for the shallow crust of the southern Korean peninsula from short period Rayleigh waves

We analyzed the short period Rayleigh waves from the first crustal-scale seismic refraction experiment in the Korean peninsula, KCRUST2002, to determine the shear wave velocity and attenuation structure of the uppermost 1 km of the crust in different tectonic zones of the Korean peninsula and to examine if this can be related to the surface geology of the study area. The experiment was conducted with two large explosive sources along a 300-km long profile in 2002. The seismic traces, recorded on 170 vertical-component, 2-Hz portable seismometers, show distinct Rayleigh waves in the period range between 0.2 s and 1.2 s, which are easily recognizable up to 30–60 km from the sources. The seismic profiles, which traverse three tectonic regions (Gyeonggi massif, Okcheon fold belt and Yeongnam massif), were divided into five subsections based on tectonic boundaries as well as lithology. Group and phase velocities for the five subsections obtained by a continuous wavelet transform method and a slant stack method, respectively, were inverted for the shear wave models. We obtained shear wave velocity models up to a depth of 1.0 km. Overall, the shear wave velocity of the Okcheon fold belt is lower than that of the Gyeonggi and Yeongnam massifs by  0.4 km/s in the shallowmost 0.2 km and by 0.2 km/s at depths below 0.2 km. Attenuation coefficients, determined from the decay of the fundamental mode Rayleigh waves, were used to obtain the shear wave attenuation structures for three subsections (one for each of the three different tectonic regions). We obtained an average value of Q_β^− 1 in the upper 0.5 km for each subsection. Q_β^− 1 for the Okcheon fold belt ( 0.026) is approximately three times larger than Q_β^− 1 for the massif areas ( 0.008). The low shear wave velocity in the Okcheon fold belt is consistent with the high attenuation in this region.     

The extraregional seismotectonic method for the assessment of seismic potential

The extraregional seismotectonic method for prognosis estimation of seismic potential (M _max) is presented. Information on the recent structure and state of the Earth's crust is used as the initial data for performing the seismotectonic analysis. The Earth's crust typification is performed applying computer procedures of cluster analysis for the territory of the major part of Europe of the adjacent aquatories and Central Asia. Application of the method results in an essential improvement of the prediction of the site and strength of expected earthquakes within seismically active territories and also makes possible the estimation of the seismic potential of weakly active regions from the same methodological standpoint.     

Analysis of seismic hazard in landslide-prone regions: criteria and example for an area of Daunia (southern Italy)

In relation to the assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, this paper discusses general principles and describes implementation criteria for seismic hazard estimates in landslide-prone regions. These criteria were worked out during the preparation of a hazard map belonging to the official Italian geological cartography and they are proposed as guidelines for future compilation of similar maps. In the presented case study, we used a procedure for the assessment of seismic hazard impact on slope stability adopting Arias intensity Ia as seismic shaking parameter and critical acceleration a _c as parameter representing slope strength to failures induced by seismic shaking. According to this procedure, after a preliminary comparison of estimated historical maximum values of Ia with values proposed in literature as landslide-triggering thresholds, a probabilistic approach, based on the Newmark’s model, is adopted: it allows to estimate the minimum critical acceleration a _c required for a slope to keep under a prefixed value, the probability of failures induced by seismic shakings expected in a given time interval. In this way, one can prepare seismic hazard maps where seismic shaking is expressed in an indirect way through a parameter (the critical acceleration) representing the “strength” that seismic shakings mobilise in slope materials (strength demand) with a prefixed exceedance probability. This approach was applied to an area of Daunia (Apulia—southern Italy) affected by frequent landslide phenomena. The obtained results indicate that shakings with a significant slope destabilisation potential can be expected particularly in the north-western part of the area, which is exposed to the seismic activity of Apennine tectonic structures.     

Geophysical studies of crustal structure of the Ongul Islands and the Northern Mizuho Plateau, East Antarctica

Explosion seismic experiments, gravity measurements and aeromagnetic surveys were made in the northern Mizuho Plateau including the Ongul Islands, East Antarctica, from 1979 to 1982 by the Japanese Antarctic Research Expeditions. The objective of these field operations was to determine the crustal structure along the 300 km-long oversnow traverse route between Syowa and Mizuho Stations. Three big shots were fired; at sea near Syowa Station, in an ice hole near Mizuho Station and in an ice hole between both stations. Twenty-seven temporal seismic stations were set up along the route. Gravity measurements were carried out at 30 points along this route. Aeromagnetic surveys over the area were made four times.In the seismic experiments, clear refracted waves from the Conrad (estimated depth 30 km) and the Moho (estimated depth 40 km) discontinuities were recorded. No layer with a velocity of less than 6 km/s was found in the Ongul Islands nor beneath the ice sheet in the surveyed area. The P-wave velocity in the upper layer varies with depth from 6.0 km/s on the surface to 6.4 km/s at a depth of 13 km. Comparing the observed record section with synthetic seismograms, it was derived that the Conrad was not associated with a sharp velocity discontinuity, but a linear velocity increase of 0.55 km/s in a transition zone of 2.4 km thick. Velocities of P^* and P_n were determined as 6.95 km/s and 7.93 km/s assuming a flat layered structure.Bouguer gravity anomalies could not be calculated along the whole profile because of a lack of data on bedrock topography, so reduced gravity anomalies were calculated. These anomalies indicate no abrupt changes of the bedrock topography.     

Numerical simulation and evaluation of the fracturing and tight gas production with a new dimensionless fracture conductivity (FCD) model

Hydraulic fracturing is an essential technology for the development of unconventional resources such as tight gas. The evaluation of the fracture performance and productivity is important for the design of fracturing operations. However, the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity is too simple to be applied in real fracturing operations. In this work, we proposed a new model of dimensionless fracture conductivity (F_CD), which considers the irregular fracture geometry, proppant position and concentration. It was based on the numerical study of the multistage hydraulic fracturing and production in a tight gas horizontal well of the North German Basin. A self-developed full 3D hydraulic fracturing model, FLAC3D^plus, was combined with a sensitive/reliability analysis and robust design optimization tool optiSLang and reservoir simulator TMVOCMP to achieve an automatic history matching as well as simulation of the gas production. With this tool chain, the four fracturing stages were history matched. The simulation results show that all four fractures have different geometry and proppant distribution, which is mainly due to different stress states and injection schedule. The position and concentration of the proppant play important roles for the later production, which is not considered in the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity F_CD. In comparison, the newly proposed formulation of F_CD could predict the productivity more accurately and is better for the posttreatment evaluation.