Estimating trends of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from long-term hydrographic data and model simulations

The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability. The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and accompanied mid-depth warming trend.     

On the influence of adequate Weddell Sea characteristics in a large-scale global ocean circulation model

Global ocean circulation models usually lack an adequate consideration of high-latitude processes due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters cannot be modeled realistically. In this study, a high-resolution (~20 km) ocean model focused on the Weddell Sea sector of the Southern Ocean is combined with a low-resolution (2^° × 2^°) global ocean model applying the state estimation technique. Temperature, salinity, and velocity data on two Weddell Sea sections from the regional model are used as constraints for the large-scale model in addition to satellite altimetry and sea-surface temperatures. The differences between the model with additional constraints and without document that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, a warming trend in the period 1993–2001 was found in the Weddell Sea and adjacent basins in agreement with float measurements in the upper Southern Ocean. Teleconnections to the North Atlantic are suggested but need further studies to demonstrate their statistical significance.     

全球纬向平均大气环流基本模态年代际变化的凝聚小波分析

应用1871-2008年NCEP／NCAR月平均再分析资料,研究了1948-2008年期间全球纬向平均大气环流基本模态的年代际变化.小波凝聚谱的结果表明全球纬向平均大气环流基本模态存在显著的20年左右周期的年代际变化.小波凝聚位相的结果清楚地显示了纬向平均大气环流基本模态的变化顺序.在20年左右的年代际变化时间尺度上,全球纬向平均温度超前纬向平均位势高度2个月,同时超前纬向平均流10个月出现变化;全球纬向平均位势高度又超前纬向平均流8个月出现变化.全球温度上升(下降), 将使高纬度的纬向平均位势高度降低(升高),中低纬度的纬向平均位势高度升高(降低);进而使得中高纬和热带的纬向平均西风加(减)速或东风减(加)速,同时使极地和副热带的西风减(加)速或东风加(减)速.20世纪70年代末期以来全球显著增暖的异常信号最早出现在南半球对流层顶附近,其次出现在南半球对流层低层、北半球对流层顶附近和北半球对流层低层.     

Solar activity and dynamic processes in the atmosphere and world ocean heat content

The scenario of climatic changes in the 20th century has been presented in the scope of the developed model concerning the effect of solar activity on the parameters of the climatic system governing the energy flux, outgoing from the Earth into space in the high-latitude regions. The regularities of changes in the circulation in the atmosphere and ocean are discussed. Specific attention is paid to the causes of a “cold snap” in 1940–1976 in the Northern Hemisphere and the nature of an anomalous increase in the heat content in the Earth climatic system (ocean) in 1969–1980. It has been indicated that these phenomena result from changes in the circulation in the atmosphere and ocean (specifically, a change in the thermohaline circulation in the Northern Atlantic), heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere and cryosphere.     

Long-term ocean simulations in FESOM: evaluation and application in studying the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is formulated on unstructured meshes and offers geometrical flexibility which is difficult to achieve on traditional structured grids. In this work, the performance of FESOM in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean on large time scales is evaluated in a hindcast experiment. A water-hosing experiment is also conducted to study the model sensitivity to increased freshwater input from Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting in a 0.1-Sv discharge rate scenario. The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the hindcast experiment can be explained by the variability of the thermohaline forcing over deep convection sites. The model also reproduces realistic freshwater content variability and sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. The anomalous freshwater in the water-hosing experiment leads to significant changes in the ocean circulation and local dynamical sea level (DSL). The most pronounced DSL rise is in the northwest North Atlantic as shown in previous studies, and also in the Arctic Ocean. The released GrIS freshwater mainly remains in the North Atlantic, Arctic Ocean and the west South Atlantic after 120 model years. The pattern of ocean freshening is similar to that of the GrIS water distribution, but changes in ocean circulation also contribute to the ocean salinity change. The changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic sea level modify exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and subpolar seas, and hence the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global climate. Not only the strength of the AMOC, but also the strength of its decadal variability is notably reduced by the anomalous freshwater input. A comparison of FESOM with results from previous studies shows that FESOM can simulate past ocean state and the impact of increased GrIS melting well.

     

Long-term ocean simulations in FESOM: evaluation and application in studying the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) is formulated on unstructured meshes and offers geometrical flexibility which is difficult to achieve on traditional structured grids. In this work, the performance of FESOM in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean on large time scales is evaluated in a hindcast experiment. A water-hosing experiment is also conducted to study the model sensitivity to increased freshwater input from Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting in a 0.1-Sv discharge rate scenario. The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the hindcast experiment can be explained by the variability of the thermohaline forcing over deep convection sites. The model also reproduces realistic freshwater content variability and sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. The anomalous freshwater in the water-hosing experiment leads to significant changes in the ocean circulation and local dynamical sea level (DSL). The most pronounced DSL rise is in the northwest North Atlantic as shown in previous studies, and also in the Arctic Ocean. The released GrIS freshwater mainly remains in the North Atlantic, Arctic Ocean and the west South Atlantic after 120 model years. The pattern of ocean freshening is similar to that of the GrIS water distribution, but changes in ocean circulation also contribute to the ocean salinity change. The changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic sea level modify exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and subpolar seas, and hence the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global climate. Not only the strength of the AMOC, but also the strength of its decadal variability is notably reduced by the anomalous freshwater input. A comparison of FESOM with results from previous studies shows that FESOM can simulate past ocean state and the impact of increased GrIS melting well.     

Internal Variability Of The North Atlantic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

A new approach to understand the physical processes that govern internal variability of the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation is outlined and current methods and results are reviewed. In this approach, based on the theory of dynamical systems, internal variability is viewed as arising through successive transitions when parameters are changed. The potential of the approach is demonstrated through analysesof solutions of intermediate complexity models of the wind-driven ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. In a quasi-geostrophic modelfor the flow in a rectangular basin with idealized wind forcing, the basic transitions are already found and physical mechanisms at work can be described in detail. Qualitatively, this transition behavior remains robust in more realistic models, having shallow water dynamics, realistic wind forcingand continental geometry, although patterns and time scales changethrough the model hierarchy. The relevance of the results is discussed inrelation to those of observations and of ocean general circulation models.     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas

In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.     

FESOM under coordinated ocean-ice reference experiment forcing

Characteristics of the ocean state simulated with the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) under the normalized year forcing of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs; Griffies et al., Ocean Model 26:1–46, 2009) are compared with those of other models participating in COREs. In contrast to these models, FESOM is run on an unstructured mesh (with resolution varying between 20 and 150 km). It is shown that the ocean state simulated by FESOM is in most cases within the spread of other models, demonstrating that the unstructured mesh technology has reached the stage when it becomes a reliable tool for studying the large-scale ocean general circulation.     

Internal and forced variability along a section between Greenland and Portugal in the CLIPPER Atlantic model

Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of the -coordinate overturning reveals model–data discrepancies: the vertical structure in the models does not change as much as the observed one. The East Greenland current variability is mainly wind-forced in the ATL6 model, while fluctuations due to eddies and instabilities explain a large part of the North Atlantic Current variability. The time-residual transport of dense water and heat due to eddy correlations between currents and properties is small across this section, which is normal to the direction of the main current.     

A low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change

Concern has been expressed that anthropogenic climate change may lead to a slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Because of the possibly severe consequences that such an event could have on the northern North Atlantic and northwestern Europe, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are needed to explore the associated political and socioeconomic implications. State-of-the-art climate models representing the THC are, however, often too complex to be incorporated into an integrated assessment framework. In this paper we present a low-order model of the Atlantic THC which meets the main requirements of IAMs: it (1) is physically based, (2) is computationally highly efficient, (3) allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis and (4) can be linked to globally aggregated climate models that are mostly used in IAMs. The model is an interhemispheric extension of the seminal Stommel model. Its parameters are determined by a least-squares fit to the output of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. Results of a number of transient global warming simulations indicate that the model is able to reproduce many features of the behaviour of coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of climate change.Responsible Editor: Richard Greatbatch     

Deglacial sea surface temperature and salinity increase in the western tropical Atlantic in synchrony with high latitude climate instabilities

A sediment core from the western tropical Atlantic covering the last 21,000 yr has been analysed for centennial scale reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice volume-corrected oxygen isotopic composition of sea water (δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw) using Mg / Ca and δ¹⁸O of the shallow dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white). At a period between 15.5 and 17.5 kyr BP, the Mg / Ca SST and δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw, a proxy for sea surface salinity (SSS), reveals a warming of around 2.5 °C along with an increase in salinity. A second period of pronounced warming and SSS increase occurred between 11.6 and 13.5 kyr BP. Within age model uncertainties, both warming intervals were synchronous with air temperature increase over Antarctica and ice retreat in the southern South Atlantic and terminated with abrupt centennial scale SSS decrease and slight SST cooling in conjunction with interglacial reactivation of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). We suggest that during these warm intervals, production of saline and warm water of the North Brazil Current resulted in pronounced heat and salt accumulation, and was associated with warming in the southern Atlantic, southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and weakened MOC. At the termination of the Younger Dryas and Heinrich event 1, intensification of cross-equatorial heat and salt transport caused centennial scale cooling and freshening of the western tropical Atlantic surface water. This study shows that the western tropical Atlantic served as a heat and salt reservoir during deglaciation. The sudden release of accumulated heat and salt at the end of Younger Drays and Heinrich event 1 may have contributed to the rapid reinvigoration of the Atlantic MOC.     

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies

Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the typhoon as well as hurricane fre-quencies are documented. The correlation between NPO index in June-July-August-September and the annual typhoon number in the western North Pacific is 0.37 for the period of 1949―1998. The NPO is correlated with the annual hurricane number in the tropical Atlantic at -0.28 for the same period. The variability of NPO is found to be concurrent with the changes of the magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear, sea-level pressure patterns, as well as the sea surface temperature, which are physically asso- ciated with the typhoons and hurricanes genesis. The NPO associated atmospheric circulation vari- ability is analyzed to explain how NPO is linked with variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, via the atmospheric teleconnection.     

27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide

An analysis of time variations in the earth's length of day (LOD) for 25 years (1973-1998) versus at- mospheric circulation changes and lunar phase is presented. It is found that, on the average, there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day period oscillation in global zonal wind speed, atmospheric geopotential height, and LOD following alternating changes in lunar phase. Every 5-9 days (6.8 days on average), the fields of global atmospheric zonal wind and geopotential height and LOD undergo a sudden change in rela- tion to a change in lunar declination. The observed atmospheric oscillation with this time period may be viewed as a type of atmospheric tide. Ten atmospheric tidal cases have been analyzed by comparing changes in LOD, global zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height versus change in lunar declination. Taken together these cases reveal prominent 27.3-day and 13.6-day tides. The lunar forcing on the earth's atmosphere is great and obvious changes occur in global fields of zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height over the equatorial and low latitude areas. The driving force for the 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tides is the periodic change in lunar forcing during the moon's revolution around the earth. When the moon is located on the celestial equator the lunar declination equals zero and the lunar tidal forcing on the atmosphere reaches its maximum, at this time the global zonal wind speed increases and the earth's rotation rate decreases and LOD increases. Conversely, when the moon reaches its most northern or southern positions the lunar declination is maximized, lunar tidal forcing decreases, global zonal wind speed decreases, earth's rotation rate increases and LOD decreases. 27.3-day and 13.6-day period atmospheric tides deserve deeper study. Lunar tidal forcing should be considered in models of atmospheric circulation and in short and medium range weather forecasting.     

Modelling the impact of ocean warming on melting and water masses of ice shelves in the Eastern Weddell Sea

The Eastern Weddell Ice Shelves (EWIS) are believed to modify the water masses of the coastal current and thus preconditions the water mass formation in the southern and western Weddell Sea. We apply various ocean warming scenarios to investigate the impact on the temperature–salinity distribution and the sub-ice shelf melting in the Eastern Weddell Sea. In our numerical experiments, the warming is imposed homogeneously along the open inflow boundaries of the model domain, leading to a warming of the warm deep water (WDW) further downstream. Our modelling results indicate a weak quadratic dependence of the melt rate at the ice shelf base on the imposed amount of warming, which is consistent with earlier studies. The total melt rate has a strong dependence on the applied ocean warming depth. If the warming is restricted to the upper ocean (above 1,000  m), the water column (aside from the mixed surface layer) in the vicinity of the ice shelves stabilises. Hence, reduced vertical mixing will reduce the potential of Antarctic Bottom Water formation further downstream with consequences on the global thermohaline circulation. If the warming extends to the abyss, the WDW core moves significantly closer to the continental shelf break. This sharpens the Antarctic Slope Front and leads to a reduced density stratification. In contrast to the narrow shelf bathymetry in the EWIS region, a wider continental shelf (like in the southern Weddell Sea) partly protects ice shelves from remote ocean warming. Hence, the freshwater production rate of, e.g., the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf increases much less compared with the EWIS for identical warming scenarios. Our study therefore indicates that the ice-ocean interaction has a significant impact on the temperature-salinity distribution and the water column stability in the vicinity of ice shelves located along a narrow continental shelf. The effects of ocean warming and the impact of increased freshwater fluxes on the circulation are of the same order of magnitude and superimposed. Therefore, a consideration of this interaction in large-scale climate studies is essential.     

Recent changes of the thermohaline circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic

Time series of hydrographic sections in the northern North Atlantic from the period 1990 to 2004 are analyzed for changes in the characteristics and distribution of water masses that are involved in the thermohaline circulation (THC). During the 1990s, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alternates from a positive phase (strong westerlies) to a negative phase (weak westerlies). The reduced ocean heat loss confined the convection in the Labrador Sea to the upper 1,200 m, generating a new salinity minimum layer characterizing the Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW), and led to a warming and salinization of the older LSW below due to lateral mixing. The Lower LSW, formed in the first half of the 1990s, spread in the subpolar gyre and reached the Newfoundland and Irminger basins after about 1 to 2 years, where the associated isopycnal doming contributed to eastward frontal shifts in the upper layer. After 5 and 6 years, it arrived in the Iceland and West European basins, respectively. The collapse of the isopycnal dome in the Labrador Sea, associated with the drainage of the Lower LSW, resulted in a slowing of the cyclonic circulation of the subpolar gyre. This was accompanied in the upper layer by a westward shift of the southeastern extension of the gyre and a northward advection of warm and saline subtropical water in its eastern part, which finally reached the Labrador Sea after about 7 years. In the upper layer of the Labrador Sea, the advection of warm and saline water dominated over the heat loss to the atmosphere and the freshwater gain from melting ice and precipitation in the NAO-low period, so that no accumulation of freshwater but an increase of the heat and salt contents were observed, as in the whole eastern part of the subpolar gyre. Within 1 to 2 years after the drop of the NAO in the winter of 1995/1996, the Subarctic (Subpolar) Front shifted northward and westward north of about 50°N, favored by the retreat of the low-salinity tongue extending eastward from the southern Labrador Sea, and it shifted southward and eastward in the Newfoundland Basin. Therefore, the enhanced northward advection of subtropical waters in the northeastern North Atlantic is balanced by the enhanced southward advection of subarctic waters, including Lower LSW in the Newfoundland Basin, indicating a strong response of the gyre component of the THC.     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area Part I: model validation

We assess the performance of an eddy-recognizing numerical ocean model in simulating the pattern and variability of the hydrography in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. The model we use is a version of the widely used Princeton ocean model employing a terrain-following vertical coordinate. Results from a series of five multi-year simulations of the mesoscale response are described. The simulations differ in their representation of the lateral freshwater supply to the model ocean of which the first is a reference simulation. The next four are variations in which the river discharges and/or the Baltic outflow are given more realistic representations. For validation, we have used in situ hydrographic data. A novelty is that we use the concepts of freshwater height and potential energy anomaly as objective validation tools. We find that, in general, the model faithfully reproduces many of the observed hydrographic features including their mean patterns and their variance. Not surprisingly, we find that the Baltic outflow is by far the most significant freshwater source in terms of its influence on the hydrography in the area, a result corroborating earlier findings. The best validation is obtained when all freshwater supply is made as realistic as possible, in particular the Baltic outflow. We also find that the large scale cyclonic circulation and the location of fronts are robust characteristics of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea circulation given the impact changes in the freshwater input has on the hydrography. Finally, we find that a further exploration of the impact of the lateral open boundary forcing, e.g., the input of Atlantic water, is needed.     

The response of circulation and salinity in a micro-tidal estuary to sub-tidal oscillations in coastal sea surface elevation

Conceptual models of circulation theorise that the dominant forces controlling estuarine circulation are freshwater discharge from the riverine section (landward), tidal forcing from the ocean boundary, and gravitational circulation resulting from along-estuary gradients in density. In micro-tidal estuaries, sub-tidal water level changes (classified as those with periods between 3 and 10 days) with amplitudes comparable to the spring tidal range can significantly influence the circulation and distribution of water properties. Field measurements obtained from the Swan River Estuary, a diurnal, micro-tidal estuary in south-western Australia, indicated that sub-tidal water level changes at the ocean boundary were predominantly from remotely forced continental shelf waves (CSWs). The sub-tidal water levels had maximum amplitudes of 0.8 m, were comparable to the maximum tidal range of 0.6 m, propagated into the estuary to its tidal limit, and modified water levels in the whole estuary over several days. These oscillations dominated the circulation and distribution of water properties in the estuary through changing the salt wedge location and increasing the bottom water salinity by 7 units over 3 days. The observed salt wedge excursion forced by CSW was up to 5 km, whereas the maximum tidal excursion was 1.2 km. The response of the residual currents and the salinity distribution lagged behind the water level changes by ∼24 h. It was proposed that the sub-tidal forcing at the ocean boundary, which changed the circulation, salinity, and dissolved oxygen in the upper estuary, was due to a combination of two processes: (1) a gravity current generated by a process similar to a lock exchange mechanism and (2) amplified along-estuary density gradients in the upper estuary, which enhanced the gravitational circulation in the estuary. The salt intrusions under the sub-tidal forcing caused the rapid movement of anoxic water upstream, with significant implications for water quality and estuarine health.     

A numerical study of the circulation and monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea: the role of Caribbean eddies

This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al. (Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed.