Climatic change in southern Africa: Past and present conditions and possible future scenarios

A brief review of climatic changes over the last 800 000 years in southern Africa is presented. The greatest emphasis is placed on those changes occurring during the Holocene and the period of meteorological record. Twentieth-century rainfall variations and their spatial manifestations are examined, and scenarios of possible future conditions are presented.     

Q矢量研究进展

考虑水汽相变的凝结潜热作用,引入广义位温,发展了包含广义位温的Q矢量,并在此基础上推导了非地转湿大气Omega方程。（1）包含广义位温的Q矢量是Omega方程的唯一强迫项,由拟涡度伸展矢量、锋生矢量和非绝热加热梯度等三项构成。（2）利用包含广义位温的Q矢量对一次北方夏季暴雨进行诊断分析,发现包含广义位温的Q矢量对降水区的垂直运动结构有良好指示意义,可以综合表征次级环流、锋生和锋消、大尺度和中尺度强迫等多种物理因素,而这些均是影响暴雨发生发展的重要因素,因而包含广义位温的Q矢量及其散度与强降水的发生发展密切相关。（3）利用美国全球预报系统24 h预报场对包含广义位温的Q矢量散度进行计算,结果表明预报的Q矢量散度在时间和空间上与观测6 h降水联系紧密,根据预报的Q矢量散度的异常能够判断降水的可能落区。

     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

南极地区气候系统变化:过去、现在和将来

 南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

Past,present and future climatic forcing due to greenhouse gases

An advanced one-dimensional radiative-convective model (RCM) is used to estimate the past, present and fu-ture climatic forcings induced by greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, such as CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, in this paper. The results show that the decadal climatic forcing for the last decade is one-order bigger than that prior to the year 1900, and in the case of no control on the emission of the greenhouse gases the climatic forcing for the year 2100 will be almost 4 times as much as now.     

Past,present and future vegetation-cloud feedbacks in the Amazon Basin

To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC), we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover.     

Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain

Interannual variability over South America (SA) is mainly controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This study investigates the ENSO precipitation signal during austral spring (September–October–November-SON) over SA. Three global circulation models-GCMs-(MPI, GFDL and HadGEM2) are used for RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) downscaling of the present (1975–2005) near-future (2020–2050) and far-future (2070–2098) climates using two greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the present climate, only HadGEM2 simulates a frequency of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years similar to the observations. In terms of ENSO frequency changes, only in the far-future RCP8.5 climate there is greater agreement among GCMs, indicating an increase (decrease) of EN (LN) years. In the present climate, validation indicates that only the RegCM4 ensemble mean provides acceptable precipitation biases (smaller than ±20 %) in the two investigated regions. In this period, the GCMs and RegCM4 agree on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in SA, i.e., both are able to capture the observed regions of positive/negative rainfall anomalies during EN years, with RegCM4 improving on the GCMs’ signal over southeastern SA. For the near and far future climates, in general, the projections indicate an increase (decrease) of precipitation over southeastern SA (northern-northeastern SA). However, the relationship between ENSO and rainfall in most of RegCM4 and GCM members is weaker in the near and far future climates than in the present day climate. This is likely connected with the GCMs’ projection of the more intense ENSO signal displaced to the central basin of Pacific Ocean in the far future compared to present climate.     

An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: past, present, and future

Within Canada, the Canadian Prairies are particularly drought-prone mainly due to their location in the lee of the western cordillera and distance from large moisture sources. Although previous studies examined the occurrence of Canadian Prairie droughts during instrumental, pre-instrumental and to a lesser extent, future periods, none have specifically focused on all time three scales. Using two different drought indicators, namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), this investigation assesses the variability of summer drought duration and intensity over a core region of the Prairies during (a) the pre-instrumental record extending back several centuries (inferred from tree rings), (b) the instrumental record (1901–2005), and (c) the twenty-first century using statistically downscaled climate variables from several Atmosphere–Ocean Global climate models with multiple emission scenarios. Results reveal that observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) in the future due to the anticipated warming during the course of the twenty-first century. However, future drought projections are distinctly different between the two indices. All PDSI-related model runs show greater drought frequency and severity mainly due to increasing temperatures. Conversely, the precipitation-based SPI indicates no significant changes to future summer drought frequency although there tends to be a higher persistence of multi-year droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. These findings therefore stress the importance of considering anticipated warming trends when assessing future regional-scale drought, especially given the uncertainties and lack of consistency in future precipitation signals among climate models. This study can be considered an initial step toward quantifying and understanding Canadian Prairie drought occurrence and severity over several centuries as determined from paleo, instrumental, and climate model data sources.     

Climatic variability within an equilibrium greenhouse simulation

A simulation of the possible consequences of a doubling of the CO₂ content of the atmosphere has been performed with a low resolution global climatic model. The model included the diurnal and seasonal cycles, computed sea ice amount and cloud cover, and used implied oceanic heat fluxes to represent transport processes in the oceans. A highly responsive 2-layer soil moisture formulation was also incorporated. Twenty year equilibrated simulations for control (1 × CO₂) and greenhouse (2 × CO₂) conditions were generated. The major emphasis of the analysis presented here is on the intra-annual and interannual variability of the greenhouse run with respect to the control run. This revealed considerable differences from the time-averaged results with occasions of marked positive and negative temperature deviations. Of particular interest were the periods of negative temperature departures compared to the control run which were identified, especially over the Northern Hemisphere continents. Temporal and spatial precipitation and soil moisture anomalies also occurred, some of which were related to the surface temperature changes. Substantial sea surface temperature anomalies were apparent in the greenhouse run, indicating that a source of climatic forcing existed in addition to that due to doubling of the CO₂. Comparison of the intra-annual and interannual variability of the control run with that of the greenhouse run suggests that, in many situations, it will be difficult to identify a greenhouse signal against the intrinsic natural variability of the climatic system.     

Climatic variability and changing reproductive goals in Sub-Saharan Africa

Using 40 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries, linked to high-resolution historical climate records, we analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals among reproductive-aged women. We find that, overall, women exposed to above-average temperatures report lower ideal family size and reduced probability of desiring a first or additional child. Results indicate that exposure to precipitation anomalies during the 12 months prior to the DHS survey is associated with a significant reduction in ideal family size, but longer 60-month spells of above-average precipitation are associated with increases in ideal family size. Effects of unusual precipitation are null for women’s fertility preferences at both shorter- and longer-term periods. Additional analyses show that this association varies across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. In general, our results suggest that women exposed to adverse environmental conditions—namely abnormally hot or dry spells—will reduce their ideal family size and their preferences for having another child. In some cases, however, fertility goals may also decline during spells of favorable environmental conditions, possibly due to increased labor demands among women and their spouses. One implication of the observed links between climate variability and reproductive goals is that policymakers concerned with climate adaptation should work to ensure women have access to the necessary family planning resources needed to realize dynamic reproductive goals in a changing climate.     

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.     

Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review

Based on the availability of hemispheric gridded data sets from observations, analysis and global climate models, objective cyclone identification methods were developed and applied to these data sets. Due to the large amount of investigation methods combined with the variety of different datasets, a multitude of results exist, not only for the recent climate period but also for the next century, assuming anthropogenic changed conditions. Different thresholds, different physical quantities, and considerations of different atmospheric vertical levels add to a picture that is difficult to combine into a common view of cyclones, their variability and trends, in the real world and in GCM studies. Thus, this paper will give a comprehensive review of the actual knowledge on climatologies of mid-latitude cyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere for the present climate and for its possible changes under anthropogenic climate conditions.     

Climatic variability on the scale of decades to centuries

Climatic variations in the range of 10 to 100 years duration are perhaps of greatest consequence to mankind because; (1) they have a tendency to be regional in nature, (2) they affect third-world countries as well as more developed countries, and (3) they prevail over the planning horizons used in water resources, agriculture and many other disciplines. Documentation of the range of variability experienced regionally for various regions in the western United States as well as North Africa are examined. The recent high water-levels of the Great Salt Lake and other lakes in the Western United States and the prolonged recent drought in North Africa are examples discussed in detail.     

近50年江西省雨凇过程气候特征分析

基于江西省83个常规气象站近50年雨凇观测资料,分析了江西省雨凇天气的时空分布规律。利用Gumbel分布函数,对全省历年雨凇过程的持续时间、影响范围和年雨凇天数等时间序列进行了重现期分析,并对2008年初江西省出现的持续低温雨雪冰冻天气进行了定量的分析评估。结果表明：①江西省雨凇主要出现在冬季,以2月为最多,春、秋季在高海拔站偶有发生;②全省雨凇发生概率以中部和北部鄱阳湖北段沿岸最多,赣东北、赣西北和赣南最少,山区多于平原和丘陵;③2008年初江西省出现的低温雨雪冰冻天气主要致灾因子是大范围、长时间的雨凇天气,其影响范围、持续时间之长均创近50年之最,雨凇过程持续天数之长超过100年一遇,影响范围之广超过30年一遇。     

包头市近50年气候变化及对策

利用包头市1961—2010年的逐日气温、降水、风等气象要素资料,分析了近50年气候变化的时空特征。结果表明:包头市气候发生了明显的变暖过程,全市年平均气温升高了1.9～2.3℃,年平均最高气温升高1.3℃,年平均最低气温升高2.2～2.7℃,特别是20世纪80年代中期以后气温持续上升,冬季变暖尤为明显。而降水量没有趋势性的年际变化,呈现出箱体内的震荡。     

濮阳市近40年气候变化及未来趋势

利用濮阳1961-1999年的气象资料,分析了濮阳气候变化趋势,结果表明,39年来,气温增高,降水减少,雷暴、大风、日照等天气要素指数均呈负上升状态.从39年的气候变化趋势可以看出,未来干旱有可能成为濮阳比较突出的气候问题,气候异常极端事件也可能会较多地出现.上述气候变化与城市建设有一定关系.