Exploratory analyses of local institutions for climate change adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands: An agent-based modeling approach

There has been a decrease in grazing mobility in the Mongolian grasslands over the past decades. Sedentary grazing with substantial external inputs has increased the cost of livestock production. As a result, the livelihoods of herders have become more vulnerable to climate variability and change. Sedentary grazing is the formal institutional arrangement in Inner Mongolia, China. However, this may not be an efficient institutional arrangement for climate change adaptation. Self-organized local institutions for climate change adaptation have emerged and are under development in the study area. In this study, we did exploratory analyses of multiple local institutions for climate change adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands, using an agent-based modeling approach. Empirical studies from literature and our field work show that sedentary grazing, pasture rental markets, and reciprocal pasture-use groups are three popular institutional arrangements in the study area. First, we modeled the social–ecological performance (i.e., livelihood benefits to herders and grassland quality) of these institutions and their combinations under different climate conditions. Second, we did exploratory analyses of multiple social mechanisms for facilitating and maintaining cooperative use of pastures among herders. The modeling results show that in certain value-ranges of some model parameters with assumed values, reciprocal pasture-use groups had better performance than pasture rental markets; and the comparative advantage of cooperative use of pastures over sedentary grazing without cooperation becomes more evident with the increase in drought probability. Agent diversity and social norms were effective for facilitating the development of reciprocal pasture-use groups. Kin selection and punishments on free-riders were useful for maintaining cooperation among herders.     

Irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change��a biophysical and economic appraisal for Swiss maize production

The impact of climate change on Swiss maize production is assessed using an approach that integrates a biophysical and an economic model. Simple adaptation options such as shifts in sowing dates and adjustments of production intensity are considered. In addition, irrigation is evaluated as an adaptation strategy. It shows that the impact of climate change on yield levels is small but yield variability increases in rainfed production. Even though the adoption of irrigation leads to higher and less variable maize yields in the future, economic benefits of this adoption decision are expected to be rather small. Thus, no shift from the currently used rainfed system to irrigated production is expected in the future. Moreover, we find that changes in institutional and market conditions rather than changes in climatic conditions will influence the development of the Swiss maize production and the adoption of irrigation in the future.     

Impacts of carbon dioxide warming on climate and man in the semi-arid tropics

Tropical semi-arid climates occur between 10 and 35 deg latitude and are characterised by highly variable summer rainfall of between 300 and 750 mm in a rainy season of at least 4 months, generally adequate for rainfed cropping but with considerable drought risk. They support a mesic savanna vegetation. They have a land extent of 4.5 million km², mainly occupied by Third World nations with rapidly increasing populations which in the main are predominantly rural and largely agricultural with low per capita incomes, consequently vulnerable to climate change. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ by the year 2030 is predicted to cause a rise in equilibrium mean temperature of 1–3 °C; however there is continuing uncertainty regarding the consequences for rainfall amount, variability and intensity, length of rainy season or the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Two scenarios are considered, with reduction and increase in rainfall respectively, involving corresponding latitudinal shifts in present climatic boundaries of about 200 km. Because of their variability, a clear signal of the greenhouse effect on these climates may be delayed, whilst regional responses may differ. Vegetational and hydrological responses under the alternative scenarios are considered. The possible consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, water and energy supplies and disease and pest ecology are discussed. Lands of the semi-arid tropics are already extensively desertified, with consequent lowered productivity and heightened vulnerability to drought, and the possible impacts of greenhouse warming on desertification processes and on measures for land rehabilition to the year 2030 are reviewed. Measures to conserve the biological diversity of savanna lands in face of greenhouse warming are discussed.     

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Africa is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and Ethiopia is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in Africa, drawing from experiences in Ethiopia. To achieve this we employ a range of data and methods. We examine the changing nature of climate risks using analysis of recent climate variability, future climate scenarios and their secondary impacts. We assess the effects of climate variability on agricultural production and national GDP. Entry points and knowledge gaps in relation to mainstreaming climate risks in Ethiopia are identified using the Government's plan for poverty reduction. We end with a case study incorporating climate risks through drought insurance within the current social protection programme in Ethiopia, which provides support to 8.3 million people.Rainfall behaviour in Ethiopia shows no marked emergent changes and future climate projections show continued warming but very mixed patterns of rainfall change. Economic analysis highlights sensitivities within the economy to large-scale drought, however, while the effects are clear in major drought years in other years the relationship is weak. For social protection fairly small positive and negative effects on the number of recipients and frequency of cash payments during drought occur under the extreme range of climate model rainfall projections (2020s).Our analysis highlights several important challenges and opportunities for addressing climate risks. Challenges primarily relate to the large uncertainties in climate projections for parts of Africa, a weak evidence base of complex, often non-deterministic, climate-society interactions and institutional issues. Opportunities relate to the potential for low-regrets measures to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability which can be integrated with relatively modest effort within a shift in Africa from a disaster-focused view of climate to a long-term perspective that emphasises livelihood security and vulnerability reduction.     

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.     

An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India

A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.     

Sea water surface energy balance in the Arctic fjord (Hornsund,SW Spitsbergen) in May–November 2014

Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.     

全球变化背景下多尺度干旱过程及预测研究进展

干旱是一种周期性的气候异常,主要受气候自然变率驱动,具有发展缓慢、持续时间长、影响范围广等特征。然而,气候变化使得干旱不仅有增加趋势,其特征也在发生变化。例如,发展迅速的干旱,也称骤旱,近年来频繁发生。此外,人类活动通过改变陆地水循环,直接或间接地影响干旱过程。在全球变化背景下,干旱机制研究由海-陆-气相互作用影响气象干旱的气候动力学研究扩展到包含干旱传递过程机理认识、考虑区域尺度人类活动影响,面向农业、水利、生态等行业的农业干旱和水文干旱研究,为认识干旱可预报性、发展预测方法带来了新的挑战。本文将针对多尺度干旱过程及预测,讨论相关的研究进展及未来发展方向。     

Precipitation extremes in a karst region: a case study in the Guizhou province, southwest China

The topography of hilly landscapes modifies crop environment changing the fluxes of water and energy, increasing risk in these vulnerable agriculture systems, which could become more accentuated under climate change (drought, increased variability of rainfall). In order to quantify how wheat production in hilly terrain will be affected by future climate, a newly developed and calibrated micro-meteorological model for hilly terrain was linked to a crop growth simulation model to analyse impact scenarios for different European regions. Distributions of yield and growing length of rainfed winter wheat and durum wheat were generated as probabilistic indices from baseline and low (B2) and high (A2) emission climate scenarios provided from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3). We used site-specific terrain parameters for two sample catchments in Europe, ranging from humid temperate (southeast UK) to semi-arid Mediterranean (southern Italy). Results for baseline scenario show that UK winter wheat is mainly affected by annual differences in precipitation and yield distributions do not change with terrain, whilst in the southern Mediterranean climate yield variability is significantly related to a slope × elevation index. For future climate, our simulations confirm earlier predictions of yield increase in the UK, even under the high emission scenario. In the southern Mediterranean, yield reduction is significantly related to slope × elevation index increasing crop failure in drier elevated spots but not in wet years under baseline weather. In scenarios for the future, the likelihood of crop failure rises sharply to more than 60%, and even in wet years, yields are likely to decrease in elevated spots.     

Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate change resiliency option for farmers: an example of local adaptation in Vietnam

Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of severe weather events are posing major challenges to global food security and livelihoods of rural people. Agriculture has evolved through adaptation to local circumstances for thousands of years. Local experience in responding to severe weather conditions, accumulated over generations and centuries, is valuable for developing adaptation options to current climate change. This study aimed to: (i) identify tree species that reduce vulnerability of cropping systems under climate variability; and (ii) develop a method for rapidly assessing vulnerability and exploring strategies of smallholder farmers in rural areas exposed to climate variability. Participatory Rural Appraisal methods in combination with Geographical Information Systems tools and statistical analysis of meteorological data were used to evaluate local vulnerability to climate change and to investigate local adaptation measures in two selected villages in Vietnam, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The low predictability of severe weather events makes food crops, especially grain production, insecure. This study shows that while rice and rain-fed crops suffered over 40 % yield losses in years of extreme drought or flood, tree-based systems and cattle were less affected. 13 tree species performed well under the harsh local climate conditions in home and forest gardens to provide income, food, feed and other environmental benefits. Thus, this research suggests that maintenance and enhancement of locally evolved agroforestry systems, with high resilience and multiple benefits, can contribute to climate change adaptation.     

Assessment of agricultural drought using a simple water balance model in the Free State Province of South Africa

Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) at three different probability levels (20%, 50%, and 80%) was used to quantify drought affecting rain-fed maize production in the Free State Province of South Africa based on climate data from 227 weather stations. Results showed high spatial variability in the suitability of different areas: the southern and southwestern localities are unsuitable due to high drought incidences; the northern, central, and western regions are marginally suitable; the eastern, northerneastern areas and a few patches in the northwest are highly suitable with relatively low drought severity. Proper choice of maize varieties to suit conditions at different localities is crucial. The Mann–Kendall test and coefficient of variation were further used to determine trends and temporal variability, respectively, in the WRSI, seasonal rainfall, and seasonal maize water requirements. Results of this analysis revealed no significant positive trends in the WRSI, no significant negative trends in seasonal rainfall, and no significant positive trends in maize water requirements, contradicting previous findings of increased drought severity. Seasonal rainfall and the WRSI showed high interseasonal variability, while seasonal maize water requirements showed low variability. In view of these observations, it is apparent that realignment of management practices is an overdue prerequisite for sustainable maize production.     

Mapping global maximum irrigation extent at 30m resolution using the irrigation performances under drought stress

Accurate global irrigation information is essential for managing water scarcity and improving food security. However, the mapping of high-resolution irrigation at the global scale is challenging due to the wide range of climate conditions, crop types and phenology, ambiguous and heterogeneous spectral features, and farming practices. Here, a robust method is proposed using irrigation performance under drought stress as a proxy for crop productivity stabilization and crop water consumption. For each irrigation mapping zone (IMZ), dry months in the 2017–2019 period and the driest months in the 2010–2019 period were identified over the growing season. The thresholds of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the dry months from 2017 to 2019 and the NDVI deviation (NDVI_dev) in the driest month were identified to separate irrigated and rainfed cropland with samples. The final threshold from either the NDVI or the NDVI_dev of the IMZ was determined with a higher overall accuracy in separating irrigated and non-irrigated areas. The results show that the global maximum irrigation extent (GMIE) at a 30-m resolution was 23.38% of global cropland in 2010–2019, with an overall accuracy of 83.6% globally and significant regional differences in irrigation proportions ranging from 1.1% in western Africa to 100% in Old World deserts among the 110 IMZs and from 0.4% in Belarus to 80.2% in Pakistan and 100% in Egypt among 45 countries. The study quantitatively distinguished annually and intermittently irrigated regions, which had values of 42% and 58% of global cropland, respectively, by applying indicators. This method, using the NDVI and NDVI_dev thresholds, is simple, concrete and reproducible and better for zones with homogeneous weather conditions. The study offers independent, consistent and comparable information for defining the baseline, tracking changes in irrigation infrastructure, and leading future changes in how stakeholders plan and design irrigation systems.     

What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that is likely to become even more pronounced during the twenty-first century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on crop yields and food security, especially at the household level. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its main objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and to identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using indicators for consumption expenditures, we construct an index measuring household drought resilience; we then apply an asset-based livelihood framework to identify its determinants. Most of the drought-affected farm households are forced to substantially reduce expenditures for food and other basic necessities. Households’ drought resilience is strengthened by the possession of liquid assets, access to credit, and the level of technical efficiency in agricultural production. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations, namely improvement of the farmers’ access to ENSO forecasts, the provision of credit and savings products to facilitate consumption smoothing, and the intensification of agricultural extension in view of low levels of productivity found in agricultural production.     

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.     

Realization of rainfed wheat and barley production environment based on drought patterns in the northeast Iran

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - High spatiotemporal climate variability in the northeast Iran has led to increased production risk for rainfed crops. Hence, to explore potential opportunities...     

Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation

Researchers who do not take into account farm heterogeneity in implementing specific climate change adaptation options might significantly bias their findings. To prove this point, this paper focusses on irrigation as an adaptation option to climate change and highlights the fact that there is no such thing as “irrigation.” Instead, different farms consider water management options across a spectrum that ranges from purely rainfed farms to purely irrigated farms with in between the extreme practices such as supplemental irrigation, water conservation practices, and different irrigation techniques. Accounting for such differences is necessary, yet difficult due to a lack of farm-specific data on water management and irrigation. This paper uses unique Farm Accountancy Data Network data of Western European farmers on the proportion of farmland that each farm irrigates. Unlike previous work, this allows taking into account some within-irrigation heterogeneity instead of simply categorizing farms as being “irrigated.” We estimate and compare climate response models based on the Ricardian cross-sectional method for a large range of irrigation categories. The results give insights into how the farm irrigation climate response can be significantly different depending on how irrigation is defined. This proves that ignoring within-adaptation differences when comparing non-adaptation with adaptation (in this case, rainfed versus irrigated agriculture) might lead to biased conclusions with regard to effectiveness of adaptation strategies. We therefore argue that it might be more relevant to understand at which point and under which circumstances irrigated agriculture is more or less beneficial than rainfed agriculture.     

Assessment of agricultural drought in rainfed cereal production areas of northern China

Agricultural drought assessment is an important tool for water management in water-scarce regions such as Inner Mongolia and northeastern China. Conventional methods have difficulty of clarifying long-term influences of drought on regional agricultural production. To accurately evaluate regional agricultural drought, we assessed the performance of drought indices by constructing a new assessment framework with three components: crop model calibration and validation, drought index calculation, and index assessment (standard period setting, mean value and agreement assessments). The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model simulated well of county-level wheat and maize yields in the nine investigated counties. We calculated a major crop-specific index yield reduction caused by water stress (WSYR) in the EPIC crop model, by relating potential and rainfed yields. Using 26 agricultural drought cases, we compared WSYR with two meteorological drought indices: precipitation (P) and aridity index (AI). The results showed that WSYR had greater agreement (85 %) than either the precipitation (65 %) or aridity index (68 %). The temporal trend of the indices over the period 1962–2010 was tested using three approaches. The result via WSYR revealed a significant increase in the trend of agricultural drought in drought-prone counties, which could not be shown by the precipitation and aridity indices. Total number of dry year via WSYR from 1990s to 2000s increases more sharply than via P or AI. As shown by WSYR, the number of dry years in northeastern China and Inner Mongolia is generally increasing, particularly after the 2000s, in the western part of the study area. The study reveals the usefulness of the framework for drought index assessment and indicates the potential of WSYR and possible drought cases for drought classification.     

Human Strategies for Coping with El Niño Related Drought in Amazônia

This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers' coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Niño related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amazônia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Niño related weather events. In Amazônia the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events – and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Niño related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Niño related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarém, in Pará State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Niño Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property.     

Reevaluating suitability estimates based on dynamics of cropland expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0–2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture–soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC) without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.     

Is irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin well prepared to deal with reductions in water availability?

The “Big Dry”, a prolonged dry period in Australia from 1997 to 2009, dried out much of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and resulted in large agricultural losses and degraded river ecosystems. Climate projections are that dry conditions in the MDB are likely to be more regular and severe than ever before, and recent policy initiatives are likely to reduce consumptive water use and redirect water to ecosystem management. This paper aims to develop an understanding of the interactions between water policy and irrigation practices by deriving lessons from drought management in irrigated agriculture of the MDB during the Big Dry, and furthermore, to draw out lessons to enhance the preparedness of irrigated agriculture for a future drier climate and reduced water availability. Reviews of irrigation farmers’ practices, attitudes and capacity to manage during prolonged droughts in the MDB, and the evolution of agricultural water policy in Australia since 1990 were made. It is clear that farmers could be better prepared to deal with a drier climate if their water management practices, e.g. irrigation methods and soil moisture measuring tools are improved, if the impediments to the uncertainty of water allocation and low water availability could be overcome, and if well-targeted research and extension could assist farmers to use water more wisely. It is also clear that Australian water policy could be better prepared in terms of assisting irrigated agriculture to deal with a drier climate. Key areas are reduction of barriers and distortions to water trading, optimizing the environmental water allocation, and seeking mutual benefits between environmental water allocation and irrigated agriculture, improvement of the cost-effectiveness of investments in water supply infrastructure, facilitating carryover and capacity sharing at larger scales, and provision of accurate, accessible and useful water information at different scales. An approach to irrigation practice and water policy is proposed based on past experience and potential opportunities. The approach is a set of linked strategies for more robust agricultural production and a more sustainable environment under a drier climate and reduced water availability.