An inexact stochastic optimization model for agricultural irrigation management with a case study in China

In this study, an inexact stochastic optimization model (ITSOM) is developed for agricultural irrigation management with a case study in China. Functional intervals are introduced into the modeling framework to much accurately address the spatial and temporal variation of system components. According to the results of case study, the developed model shows effectiveness in dealing with functional information of system parameters, and brings no difficulty in obtaining optimal water allocation patterns. It is indicated that the surface water resource (i.e. Heshui River) has better be used as the major source, and proper exploration of groundwater can curtail the related expense and further increase the system net benefit. Among eight farms, hybrid rice farm is going to obtain the greatest amount of water than the others, while watermelon farm has the priority to get water due to its highest benefit and penalty rate. In comparison, water allocations to rapeseed and tea farms are to be minimal within the respective fluctuation ranges. Scenario analysis is also conducted to clarify the differences between ITSOM and a conventional interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model. A total of 60 scenarios are initiated respectively linking to 60 monthly ITSP models for the entire planning horizon. The results show that the optimal objective function values of all ITSP models always fall into the range of that obtained from ITSOM. As each ITSP solution can only correspond to the system condition under a certain time point, it is highly vulnerable to system variation.     

Forecast and optimal allocation of production,living and ecology water consumption in Zhangye,China

The water crisis is one of three crises that are persecuting the world. China is among the countries that face severe water shortages. Water scarcity and water pollution have seriously affected China's sustainable development in terms of the economy and society. Water resources per capita of China is only one quarter of the world's average. In addition, about 70 percent of China's rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are affected by pollution. Due to limited water resources, a crucial issue for the sustainable development of the watershed is how to resolve the human/nature competition for water and how to achieve the coordinated development of the economy, society and ecology. On the basis of defining water consumption for production, living and ecology (WPLE), this paper proposes a framework for forecasting and optimally allocating WPLE. Using Zhangye, in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin as the case study area, we forecasted and optimally allocated WPLE under three development scenarios, i.e. the conventional development scenario (CDS), the economy-priority development scenario (EPDS) and the environmentally sustainable development scenario (ESDS). In 2010, the proportions of WPLE in Zhangye were 87.73%, 2.74% and 9.53%, respectively. In 2020, the proportions of WPLE will be 74.80%, 4.50% and 20.70% under the CDS, 76.16%, 5.27% and 18.57% under the EPDS, and 74.99%, 4.51% and 20.50% under the ESDS. In the future, the proportion of production water consumption of Zhangye will drastically decrease, while the proportion of ecological water consumption will significantly increase. The main contradiction of the co-evolution of WPLE of Zhangye is the competitiveness of production and living water consumption with ecological water consumption.     

A stochastic model for optimal operation of inter-basin water allocation systems: a case study

This paper presents a new methodology for optimal operation of inter-basin water transfer systems by conjunctive use of surface water resources in water donor basin and groundwater resources in water receiving basin. To incorporate the streamflow uncertainty, an integrated stochastic dynamic programming (ISDP) model is developed. In the ISDP, the monthly inflow to the reservoir in the water donor basin, the water storage of the reservoir, and the water storage of the aquifer in the water receiving basin are considered as state variables. A water allocation optimization model is embedded in the main structure of ISDP and a new ensemble streamflow prediction model based on K-nearest-neighbourhood algorithm is also developed and linked to the ISDP. By using a new reoptimization process, the ISDP model provides monthly policies for water allocation to users in water donor and receiving basins. As water users can form a coalition to increase their benefits, several solution concepts in cooperative game theory, namely Nash–Harsanyi, Shapley, Nucleolus, Weak Nucleolus, Proportional Nucleolus, Separable Costs Remaining Benefits (SCRBs) and Minimum Costs Remaining Savings are utilized to determine the profit of each water user. In the last step, stakeholders make negotiation over these solution concepts using the Fallback bargaining theory to reach a unanimous agreement on the final distribution of the total benefit. The methodology is applied to an inter-basin water transfer project and the results show that the Shapley and SCRB solutions concepts can provide better distributions for the total benefit and the total benefit of water users is increased by a factor of 1.6 when they participate in a grand coalition.     

Inexact fuzzy two-stage programming for water resources management in an environment of fuzziness and randomness

A standard lower-side attainment values based inexact fuzzy two-stage programming (SLA-IFTSP) approach is proposed for supporting multi-water resources management under multi-uncertainties. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage stochastic programming by the introduction of a standard average lower-side attainment values based fuzzy linear programming. Multi-uncertainties such as intervals, probabilistic and/or possibilistic distributions and their combinations in water resources management can be directly communicated into the water allocation process. The risk of infeasibility caused by the random water availabilities can be analyzed by imposing economic penalties when the designed water allocations would not be satisfied after the occurrence of random seasonal flows. Based on the standard average lower-side attainment index, the fuzzy random relationships representing various subjective judgments in the model can be transformed into corresponding deterministic ones without additional constraints, and thus guarantee a higher computational efficiency. A hypothetical case regarding two-source water resources management is adopted for demonstrating its applicability. Reasonable solutions have been generated. They provide desired water allocations with maximized system benefit under different water availability levels. The solutions of intervals with different probabilities can be used for generating decision alternatives. Comparisons between the solutions from SLA-IFTSP and those from ITSP are also undertaken. They show that SLA-IFTSP can generate more reasonable water allocation patterns with higher net system benefits than ITSP.     

城市地震压埋人员分布评估研究——以天津市区为例

地震压埋人员分布是震后科学、有效地开展应急处置和救援的重要依据.针对地震中建筑物破坏造成的人员压埋,从人口分布和在室率着手,在社区级空间尺度上分时段建立人口数量、在室率和建筑物的对应关系;结合建筑物震害评估方法,构建地震压埋人员快速评估模型,并预评估天津市区各烈度下地震压埋人口的数量和分布情况.结果显示,夜间是发生地震...     

Integrative fuzzy set pair model for land ecological security assessment: a case study of Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region, China

Due to the increasingly serious ecological degradation of land systems, the land ecological security issues have attracted more and more attention of policy makers, researchers and citizens. Aiming at overcoming the disadvantages in subjectivity and complexity of the currently used assessment methods, an integrative fuzzy set pair model for assessing the land ecological security was developed by integrating fuzzy assessment and set pair analysis (SPA). The approximate degree of land ecological security to the optimal standard set was calculated to describe the secure level by combining multiple indices. The indices and weights were determined by a pressure-state-response model and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), respectively. Aided by a geographic information system, this model was applied to evaluate comprehensively the status of land ecological security in Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region, China, taking the administrative division as the assessment unit. The results showed that 20% of the total area maintained a slightly secure status, while 50% of the study area was of a middle or seriously low grade of land ecological security. The remaining portion (30%) was the most ecologically insecure. From the spatial prospective, obvious variations were observed. The land eco-security gradually decreased from the Xiaolangdi Dam to its surrounding regions. It was concluded that the status of the integral land ecological security of Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region was in the middle level, and increasingly intense human activities speeded up the degradation of regional land ecosystem in recent years and thus induced the crisis of land ecological security.     

Reservoir-type water source vulnerability assessment: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir,China

ABSTRACT

In this study, we developed a method to assess reservoir-type water source vulnerability (WSV) and adapted the method to the Yuqiao Reservoir (in Tianjin in North China). First, we identified the factors that influence reservoir vulnerability and selected suitable indexes for vulnerability assessment. Second, the CRITIC, AHP and integrated weighting methods were applied to quantify the index weight. Third, the information diffusion method was applied to process the index data. Finally, the vulnerability of the Yuqiao Reservoir was assessed, and the results showed that the vulnerability of the Yuqiao Reservoir is high, with social factors (i.e. the road traffic system, automatic management control system, potential menace in evaluation scope, destructive man-made accidents, emergency management plan, and per capita water consumption) being the main reasons.     

A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos,China

Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.     

Improving optimization efficiency for the total pollutant load allocation in large two-dimensional water areas: Bohai Sea (China) case study

The total pollutant load allocation (TPLA) can be transformed into an optimization problem with regards to water quality constraints. The optimization calculation may become very time consuming when the number of water quality constraint equations is great. A Trial and Error Method (TEM) to remove the redundant points was first introduced through iterative calculations under structure and non-structure model grids. The TEM was applied for the TPLA in the Bohai Sea in China. The calculation time was reduced to about 2 min under the condition that 103,433 model grids met the water quality standards. In the best case, the optimization efficiency was improved by 98.9%. The allocation results showed that approximately 90% of total nitrogen (TN) load should be reduced in the 56 pollution sources around the Bohai Sea; of these values, roughly 85% of the reduction could come from 10 pollution sources.     

Chemical weathering and CO_2 consumption of a high-erosion-rate karstic river: a case study of the Sanchahe River,southwest China

The Sanchahe River in southwest China is a tributary of the Wujiang River and experiences high erosion rates. Geochemical analysis was conducted on Sanchahe River basin samples collected in the wet and dry seasons of 2014 in order to better understand local chemical weathering processes, anthropogenic influences, and associated CO2 consumption. The samples' total dissolved solid concentrations were found to be significantly higher than that of the global river average. Ca2+was the dominant cation in the samples and accounted for 64 % and73 % of the total cations in the dry and wet seasons,respectively. HCO3-and SO42-were the dominant anions,accounting for 92 % of the total anions. Stoichiometry analyses of the river waters suggested that the water chemistry is controlled by carbonate dissolution by both carbonic and sulfuric acid. The chemical weathering rates of carbonate and silicate evaporites in the Sanchahe River basin were estimated to be approximately 109.2 and 11.0 t/(km2a), respectively, much higher than both the global mean values and the Wujiang River, a typical karstic river.The CO2 consumption by carbonate and silicate weathering are estimated to be 597.4 9 103 and 325.5 9 103mol/(km2a), which are much higher than corresponding values in the Wujiang River, indicating a high erosion rate in the Sanchahe River basin.     

Development of an inexact two-stage stochastic model with downside risk control for water quality management and decision analysis under uncertainty

Water quality management along rivers involves making water-allocation plans, establishing water quality goals, and controlling pollutant discharges, which is complicated itself but further challenged by existence of uncertainties. In this study, an inexact two-stage stochastic downside risk-aversion programming (ITSDP) model is developed for supporting regional water resources allocation and water quality management problems under uncertainties. The ITSDP method is a hybrid of interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and downside risk measure to tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions. A water quality simulation model was provided for reflecting the relationship between the water resources allocation, wastewater discharge, and environmental responses. The proposed approach was applied to a hypothetical case for a shared stream water quality management with one municipal, three industrial and two agricultural sectors. A number of scenarios corresponding to different river inflows and risk levels were examined. The results demonstrated that the model could effectively communicate the interval-format and random uncertainties, and risk-aversion into optimization process, and generate a trade-off between the system economy and stability. They could be helpful for seeking cost-effective management strategies under uncertainties, and gaining an in-depth insight into the water quality management system characteristics, and make cost-effective decisions.     

Allocating river water in a cooperative way: a case study of the Dongjiang River Basin,South China

Water resources provide the foundation for human development and environmental sustainability. Water shortage occurs more or less in some regions, which usually causes sluggish economic activities, degraded ecology, and even conflicts and disputes over water use sectors. Game theory can better reflect the behaviors of involved stakeholders and has been increasingly employed in water resources management. This paper presents a framework for the allocation of river basin water in a cooperative way. The proposed framework applies the TOPSIS model combined with the entropy weight to determine stakeholders’ initial water share, reallocating water and net benefit by using four solution concepts for crisp and fuzzy games. Finally, the Fallback bargaining model was employed to achieve unanimous agreement over the four solution concepts. The framework was demonstrated with an application to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China. The results showed that, overall, the whole basin gained more total benefits when the players participated in fuzzy coalitions rather than in crisp coalitions, and \(\left\{ {NHS_{Fuzzy} \,and\, SV_{Crisp} } \right\}\) could better distribute the total benefit of the whole basin to each player. This study tested the effectiveness of this framework for the water allocation decision-making in the context of water management in river basins. The results provide technical support for water right trade among the stakeholders at basin scale and have the potential to relieve water use conflicts of the entire basin.     

Response of drip water temperature to climate variability: a case study in Xiaoyan Cave,southwest China

Detailed monitoring of surface atmospheric and subterranean microclimatic conditions has provided a new opportunity to interpret drip water temperature changes associated with climate variability. High-resolution multi-index monitoring was conducted in Xiaoyan Cave, Guilin, southwest China, for a period of four years (2011–2014) to identify the processes that control drip water temperature. The results show that variations in drip water temperature are mainly coupled to changes in the cave air temperature unless large drip discharge occurs. The controls on cave air temperature depend on the ventilation modes that eventually affect drip water. The multiple thermal mechanisms are winter ventilation, heat conduction in summer and water flow-induced convection derived from subsurface water percolation into the cave due to fast preferential flow during heavy rain events. Drip water response to extreme temperature anomalies is shown to be sensitive to outside climate.     

Ecological–economic modeling as a tool for watershed management: A case study of Lake Qionghai watershed, China

This paper presents an ecological–economic model for a lake and its watershed systems. We describe the linkage between the watershed system and the lake aquatic ecosystem and the modeling process. The lake–watershed system was divided into six subsystems: social system, economic system, terrestrial ecosystem, lake water system, pollutant system, and lake aquatic ecosystem. The model equations were constructed based on five main assumptions. The Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, which is undergoing rapid eutrophication, was used as a case study. The targeted goals for total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations in the lake in 2015 are 0.025 and 10.0 mg m⁻³, respectively. We present two scenarios from 2004 to 2015 based on the ecological–economic model. In both scenarios, the TP and Chl a concentrations in the lake are predicted to increase under the effects of watershed pressures and the targeted goals cannot be met. The application of techniques to reduce pollutants loading and the corresponding pollutants reductions are reflected again in the constructed model. The model predicts that TP and Chl a concentrations will decrease to 0.024 and 7.71 mg m⁻³, respectively, which meet the targeted thresholds. The model results provide directions for local government management of watersheds and lake aquatic ecosystem restoration.     

A method for reliability-based optimization with multiple non-normal stochastic parameters: a simplified airshed management study

We develop methodologies to enable applications of reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) to environmental policy setting problems. RBDO considers uncertainty as random variables and parameters in an optimization framework with probabilistic constraints. Three challenges in environmental decision-making problems not addressed by current RBDO methods are efficient methods in handling: (1) non-normally distributed random parameters, (2) discrete random parameters, and (3) joint reliability constraints (e.g., meeting constraints simultaneously with a single reliability). We propose a modified sequential quadratic programming algorithm to address these challenges. An active set strategy is combined with a reliability contour formulation to solve problems with multiple non-normal random parameters. The reliability contour formulation can also handle discrete random parameters by converting them to equivalent continuous ones. Joint reliability constraints are estimated by their theoretical upper bounds using reliability indexes and angles of normal vectors between active constraints. To demonstrate the methods, we consider a simplified airshed example where CO and NOx standards are violated and are brought into compliance by reducing the speed limits of two nearby highways. This analytical example is based on the CALINE4 model. Results show the potential of this approach to handle complex large-scale environmental regulation problems.     

Simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods in multiple typhoon scenarios: a case study of Yuhuan County,Zhejiang Province,China

We propose a scenario-based method for simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods for use by local authorities concerned with public safety and urban planning in coastal areas. Focusing on the triad of hazard, vulnerability and adaptation capability, we estimate the comprehensive risk and display its spatial distribution using the raster calculation tool in ArcGIS. The detailed methodology is introduced via a case study of Yuhuan, an island county in Zhejiang Province, China, which is frequently affected by typhoon storm surges. First, we designed 24 typhoon scenarios and modeled the flood process in each scenario using the hydrodynamic module of MIKE 21. Second, flood depth and area were used for hazard assessment; an authorized indicator system of land use categories and a survey of emergency shelters were used for vulnerability and adaptation capability assessment, respectively; and a quantified model was used for assessment of the comprehensive risk. Lastly, we used the GIS raster calculation tool for mapping the risk of storm surges in multiple typhoon scenarios. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) Seawalls are more likely to be overtopped or destroyed by more severe storm surges with increasing typhoon intensity. (2) Most of the residential areas with inadequate emergency shelters are highly vulnerable to flood events. (3) As projected in the risk mapping, if an exceptional typhoon with a central pressure of 915 or 925 hPa made a landfall in Yuhuan, a wide range of areas would be flooded and at high risk. (4) Determining optimal strategies based on identification of risk-inducing factors is the most effective way of promoting safe and sustainable development in coastal cities.     

Coarse-grained parallel genetic algorithm applied to a vector based land use allocation optimization problem: the case study of Tongzhou Newtown, Beijing, China

A Coarse-Grained Parallel Genetic Algorithm (CGPGA) is utilized to search for near-optimal solutions for land use allocation optimization problems in the context of multiple objectives and constraints. Plans are obtained based on the trade-off among three spatial objectives including ecological benefit, accessibility and compatibility. The Multi-objective Optimization of Land Use model integrates these objectives with the fitness function assessed by reference point method (goal programming). The CGPGA, as the first coupling in land use allocation optimization problems, is tested through the experiments with one processor, two processors and four processors to pursue near-optimal land use allocation scenarios and the comparison to these experiments based on Generic Genetic Algorithm (GGA), which clearly shows the robustness of the model we proposed as well as its better performance. Furthermore, the successful convergent (near-convergent) case study utilizing the CGPGA in Tongzhou Newtown, Beijing, China evinces the capability and potential of CGPGA in solving land use allocation optimization problems with better efficiency and effectiveness than GGA.     

Potential of the LASH model for water resources management in data-scarce basins: a case study of the Fragata River basin,southern Brazil

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to evaluate, based on a data-scarce basin in southern Brazil, the potential of the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) model for estimating daily streamflows, annual streamflow indicators and the flow–duration curve. It was also used to simulate the different runoff components and their consistency with the basin physiographical characteristics. The statistical measures indicated that LASH can be considered suitable according to widely used classifications and when compared with other studies involving hydrological models. LASH also showed satisfactory results for annual indicators, especially for maximum and average annual streamflows, as well as for the flow–duration curve. It was found that the model was consistent with the basin characteristics when simulating runoff components. The results obtained in this study allowed us to conclude that the LASH model has the potential to aid practitioners in water resources management of basins with scarce data and similar soil and land-use conditions.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

Error sources and data limitations for the prediction of surface gravity: a case study using benchmarks

Gravity-based heights require gravity values at levelled benchmarks (BMs), which sometimes have to be predicted from surrounding observations. We use the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008) and the Australian National Gravity Database (ANGD) as examples of model and terrestrial observed data respectively to predict gravity at Australian National Levelling Network (ANLN) BMs. The aim is to quantify errors that may propagate into the predicted BM gravity values and then into gravimetric height corrections (HCs). Our results indicate that an approximate ±1 arc-min horizontal position error of the BMs causes maximum errors in EGM2008 BM gravity of ~22 mGal (~55 mm in the HC at ~2200 m elevation) and ~18 mGal for ANGD BM gravity because the values are not computed at the true location of the BM. We use RTM (residual terrain modelling) techniques to show that ~50% of EGM2008 BM gravity error in a moderately mountainous region can be accounted for by signal omission. Non-representative sampling of ANGD gravity in this region may cause errors of up to 50 mGals (~120 mm for the Helmert orthometric correction at ~2200 m elevation). For modelled gravity at BMs to be viable, levelling networks need horizontal BM positions accurate to a few metres, while RTM techniques can be used to reduce signal omission error. Unrepresentative gravity sampling in mountains can be remedied by denser and more representative re-surveys, and/or gravity can be forward modelled into regions of sparser gravity.     

基于TM影像的水体透明度反演模型——以鄱阳湖国家自然保护区为例

以江西鄱阳湖国家自然保护区为例,研究基于Landsat TM 5影像的水体透明度反演模型.结合6个时期的影像与对应的13个实测塞氏盘深度(SDD)数据建立了SDD的自然对数变换值与蓝、红波段的自然对数变换值的线性组合之间的回归模型,即ln(SDD)=-4.016-0.722ln(blue)-0.587ln(red).此模型能够解释88%的水体透明度变化.利用另外12个样点进行模型的检验.检验结果显示实际量测值与模型反演值之间的相关系数为0.93,误差标准差等于0.22 m.因此我们认为此模型获得了可以接受的结果.