Probabilistic long-term reservoir operation employing copulas and implicit stochastic optimization

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - This paper explores and combines implicit stochastic optimization (ISO) with copula functions to simulate long-term operating policies for a...     

Evaluation of stochastic reservoir operation optimization models

This paper investigates the performance of seven stochastic models used to define optimal reservoir operating policies. The models are based on implicit (ISO) and explicit stochastic optimization (ESO) as well as on the parameterization–simulation–optimization (PSO) approach. The ISO models include multiple regression, two-dimensional surface modeling and a neuro-fuzzy strategy. The ESO model is the well-known and widely used stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) technique. The PSO models comprise a variant of the standard operating policy (SOP), reservoir zoning, and a two-dimensional hedging rule. The models are applied to the operation of a single reservoir damming an intermittent river in northeastern Brazil. The standard operating policy is also included in the comparison and operational results provided by deterministic optimization based on perfect forecasts are used as a benchmark. In general, the ISO and PSO models performed better than SDP and the SOP. In addition, the proposed ISO-based surface modeling procedure and the PSO-based two-dimensional hedging rule showed superior overall performance as compared with the neuro-fuzzy approach.     

Multi-tier interactive genetic algorithms for the optimization of long-term reservoir operation

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are well known optimization methods. However, complicated systems with high dimensional variables, such as long-term reservoir operation, usually prevent the methods from reaching optimal solutions. This study proposes a multi-tier interactive genetic algorithm (MIGA) which decomposes a complicated system (long series) into several small-scale sub-systems (sub-series) with GA applied to each sub-system and the multi-tier (key) information mutually interacts among individual sub-systems to find the optimal solution of long-term reservoir operation. To retain the integrity of the original system, over the multi-tier architecture, an operation strategy is designed to concatenate the primary tier and the allocation tiers by providing key information from the primary tier to the allocation tiers when initializing populations in each sub-system. The Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan is used as a case study. For comparison, three long-term operation results of a sole GA search and a simulation based on the reservoir rule curves are compared with that of MIGA. The results demonstrate that MIGA is far more efficient than the sole GA and can successfully and efficiently increase the possibility of achieving an optimal solution. The improvement rate of fitness values increases more than 25%, and the computation time dramatically decreases 80% in a 20-year long-term operation case. The MIGA with the flexibility of decomposition strategies proposed in this study can be effectively and suitably used in long-term reservoir operation or systems with similar conditions.     

Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (pseudo-PSF, pPSF), and ensemble or probabilistic streamflow forecast (denoted as real-PSF, rPSF). DSF represents forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast errors, pPSF a conditional distribution of forecast uncertainty for a given DSF, and rPSF a probabilistic uncertainty distribution. Compared to previous studies that treat the forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the dynamic evolution of uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. Through a hypothetical example of a single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases but the magnitude depends on the forecast products used. In general, the utility of the reservoir operation with rPSF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast. Meanwhile, the utilities of DSF and pPSF are similar to each other but not as high as rPSF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, pPSF, and rPSF.     

Operation analysis of Eleviyan irrigation reservoir dam by optimization and stochastic simulation

Rainfall distributions in Iran are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, a fact probably linked to the mostly arid and semi-arid climate of the country. On the other hand, water demand is increasing with increasing population and improving life style. At present, the optimal utilization of water resources and irrigation dams is the primary concern of water resource managers. The Eleviyan dam (with a capacity of 60 hm³) was constructed to meet the irrigation and municipal water needs of the Maraghan region (Northwestern Iran). In this study, the efficiency of the Eleviyan irrigation dam system was investigated in three phases by setting up the optimization model that maximized the water release for irrigation purposes after municipal water need were met. In the first phase, the inflows measured in the 21 years prior to the construction of the reservoir, and in the second, the inflows generated by the Monte Carlo simulation method, and in the third phase, the inflows after the construction of the reservoir were used. The results demonstrate that the capacity determined during the preliminary studies was accurate and the operation carried out in the recent periods of operation life was up to a satisfactory standard.     

Estimation of reservoir flood control operation risks with considering inflow forecasting errors

A method for quantifying inflow forecasting errors and their impact on reservoir flood control operations is proposed. This approach requires the identification of the probability distributions and uncertainty transfer scheme for the inflow forecasting errors. Accordingly, the probability distributions of the errors are inferred through deducing the relationship between its standard deviation and the forecasting accuracy quantified by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. The traditional deterministic flood routing process is treated as a diffusion stochastic process. The diffusion coefficient is related to the forecasting accuracy, through which the forecasting errors are indirectly related to the sources of reservoir operation risks. The associated risks are derived by solving the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing via the forward Euler method. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. The hydrological forecasting model for this basin is established and verified. The flood control operation risks in the forecast-based pre-release operation mode for different forecasting accuracies are estimated by the proposed approach. Application results show that the proposed method can provide a useful tool for reservoir operation risk estimation and management.     

裂缝预测技术在砾岩体气藏评价中的应用

裂缝是砾岩体油气藏重要渗流通道.对裂缝分布规律及发育特征的正确识别,是砾岩体油气藏勘探开发成功的关键.大兴断层下降盘砾岩体裂缝储层天然气蕴藏量丰富、勘探评价潜力大.但储层裂缝成因的复杂性、控制和影响的多因素性在一定程度上增加了裂缝储层的研究难度.为了解决砾岩储层横向变化大,砾岩体内部沉积特征复杂,非均质性强等难题,本次...     

地震预测模型优化方法研究

在分析现有基于观测指标“异常-正常”的“二态”地震前兆模式不足的基础上, 提出了异常可表现为多种状态的“多态”前兆模式, 给出“多态”前兆模式下预测效能判定指标, 进一步提出了基于预测效能最优的单项预测模型参数的选择方法。 在广义(时间、 空间、 时-空联合的预测指标)“多态”前兆模式下, 将所建立的模型应用于我国华北和南北带地区, 分别确定了两地区活断层预测地震(M_S≥6)空间分布的最优模型(分别为断层周围20 km、 30 km)及其预测效能(分别为0.42、 0.34)。     

Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information

Increasing water demands, higher standards of living, depletion of resources of acceptable quality and excessive water pollution due to agricultural and industrial expansions have caused intense social and political predicaments, and conflicting issues among water consumers. The available techniques commonly used in reservoir optimization/operation do not consider interaction, behavior and preferences of water users, reservoir operator and their associated modeling procedures, within the stochastic modeling framework. In this paper, game theory is used to present the associated conflicts among different consumers due to limited water. Considering the game theory fundamentals, the Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game with perfect information (PSDNG) model is developed, which assumes that the decision maker has sufficient (perfect) information regarding the associated randomness of reservoir operation parameters. The simulated annealing approach (SA) is applied as a part of the proposed stochastic framework, which makes the PSDNG solution conceivable. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the Zayandeh-Rud river basin in Iran with conflicting demands. The results are compared with alternative reservoir operation models, i.e., Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming (BSDP), sequential genetic algorithm (SGA) and classical dynamic programming regression (DPR). Results show that the proposed model has the ability to generate reservoir operating policies, considering interactions of water users, reservoir operator and their preferences.     

基于球缝模型优化反演的裂缝储层评价新方法

裂缝型储层评价是复杂油气田评价的难题之一, 而且, 针对裂缝型储层的勘探需求也在日益增加.本文将裂缝型储层中的裂缝归纳为裂缝与孔隙两个基本类型, 然后, 叠加裂缝与孔隙, 在不同尺寸的配置关系下形成球缝模型.根据球缝模型提出孔隙结构参数的寻优方法, 结合现有的反演算法, 形成针对核磁测井回波的优化反演算法, 基于优化反演结果可获取裂缝均值宽度、孔隙半径、分选系数、峰态和其他孔隙结构参数.对比分析孔隙结构参数与储层品质因子及油气产量之间的关系, 可以发现孔隙结构参数与储层品质因子具有很好的相关性, 与储层测试产量也有良好的相关性.对比结果说明, 基于球缝模型反演的储层孔隙结构参数, 对于裂缝型储层的物性具有很好的刻画效果.因此, 本文的研究成果对于提高裂缝型储层的评价质量具有潜在的应用前景.

     

An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm and its application in the optimization of cascade reservoir operation

ABSTRACT

A new improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA), the chaos catfish effect SFLA (CCESFLA), is proposed by coupling a local “refine search” mechanism and a “global incentive adjustment” mechanism. Chaotic technology is introduced in the local “refine search” mechanism to improve local search ability, by implementing more refined local search around the optimal individuals. The catfish effect mechanism is adopted in the “global incentive adjustment” mechanism to improve global convergence, by motivating the frogs to “jump out” of the local steady state. The operation optimization by the CCESFLA is carried out taking the Li Xianjiang cascade reservoirs in China as an example. Compared with SFLA, particle swarm optimization, immune SFLA and cloud SFLA, the average annual power generation using the CCESFLA can be increased by 6.7, 7.5, 3.0 and 0.8%, respectively. The convergence process of the CCESFLA is more stable, and its execution time is the least of the three improved SFLAs.     

Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation II. The value of players’ information availability and cooperative behaviors

Stochastic dynamic game models can be applied to derive optimal reservoir operation policies by considering interactions among water users and reservoir operator, their preferences, their levels of information availability and cooperative behaviors. The stochastic dynamic game model with perfect information (PSDNG) has been developed by [Ganji A, Khalili D, Karamouz M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Adv Water Resour, this issue]. This paper develops four additional versions of stochastic dynamic game model of water users interactions based on the cooperative behavior and hydrologic information availability of beneficiary sectors of reservoir systems. It is shown that the proposed models are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies when compared with alternative operating models, as indicated by several reservoir performance characteristics. Among the proposed models, the selected model by considering cooperative behavior and additional hydrologic information (about the randomness nature of reservoir operation parameters), as exercised by reservoir operator, provides the highest attained level of performance and efficiency. Furthermore, the selected model is more realistic since it also considers actual behavior of water users and reservoir operator in the analysis.     

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Numerical evaluation of the dynamic response of pipelines to vibrations induced by the operation of a pavement breaker

This paper studies the response of pipelines to vibrations induced by the operation of a pavement breaker during the rehabilitation of concrete pavements. An efficient two-and-a-half-dimensional (2.5D) formulation is employed, where the geometry of the structure and the soil is assumed to be invariant in the longitudinal direction, allowing for a Fourier transform of the longitudinal coordinate y along the structure to the wavenumber k_y. The dynamic soil–structure interaction problem is solved by means of a 2.5D coupled finite element–boundary element (FE–BE) method using a subdomain formulation. The numerical model is verified by means of results available in the literature for a buried pipeline subjected to incident P- and SV-waves with an arbitrary angle of incidence. The presented methodology is capable to incorporate any type of incident wave field induced by earthquakes, construction activities, traffic, explosions or industrial activities. The risk of damage to a high pressure steel natural gas pipeline and a concrete sewer pipe due to the operation of a pavement breaker is assessed by means of the 2.5D coupled FE–BE methodology. It is observed that the stresses in the steel pipeline due to the operation of the pavement breaker are much lower than those induced by the operating internal pressure. The steel pipeline behaves in the linear elastic range under the combined effect of the loadings, indicating that damage to steel pipelines close to the road due to the operation of a pavement breaker is unlikely. The maximum principal stress in the concrete pipe, on the other hand, remains only slightly lower than the specified tensile strength. The decision to use a pavement breaker should hence be taken with care, as its operation may induce tensile stresses in concrete sewer pipes which are of the same order of magnitude as the tensile strength of the concrete. Assessing the risk of damage by means of vibration guidelines based on the peak particle velocity (PPV) gives, for the particular cases considered, qualitatively similar results.