冬小麦冬前正积温变化趋势预测

运用逐步回归周期分析方法,即均值生成函数、逐步回归分析方法的综合应用,对郑州冬小麦冬前正积温变化趋势进行预测.1989～1998年历史年代回代结果平均绝对误差28.6℃,平均相对误差3.9%;1999、2000年预报与实测值相当接近.     

非加温型四连栋塑料温室内外温湿度关系研究

根据1999年12月～2002年8月典型天气（晴天、多云、阴天）下非加温型四连栋塑料温室中间1．5m高度气温、相对湿度的观测数据，应用逐步回归分析方法建立了冬季、春秋季、夏季典型天气下温室内日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均相对湿度与气象站气象要素间的关系式，为温室蔬菜品种筛选、蔬菜标准化栽培、无公害蔬菜生产和病虫害防治提供小气候方面的技术数据。     

气候因子对长白落叶松年际高生长的影响

长白落叶松高生长受气候因子变化的影响，其生长量年际有显著差异，本文采用灰色理论中关联分析并结合多元逐步回归分析方法，筛选出影响落叶松人工林生长的主导气候因子，建立起精度可靠的落叶松生长数学模型．     

用T63及日本数值预报产品制作汛期降水预报

该文利用Ｔ６３Ｌ１６和日本数值预报产品，采用相关分析方法提取典型因子场，再由典型因子场选点求取平均场及极值场，用逐步回归法制作黄河三角洲地区汛期降水预报，试用效果较好。     

用周期分析方法预测全球稻谷总产量

应用功率谱和逐步回归周期分析方法对全球稻谷总产量预测进行了探讨，结果表明逐步回归周期分析方法具有很好的拟合精度和较高的预测精度。     

用多因变量多自变量统计法建立的大气环流——区域水稻产量预报模式

本文试图用典型相关分析方法寻找对云南省水稻气象产量有影响的环流因子,用双重筛选逐步回归模型建立起相应的预报方程组,然后外推1982—1985年预报来检验实际应用效果。 1.方法 采用1962—1981年20年的历史资料,分别把云南省17个地、州的水稻平均亩产用1—4次多项式逐步回归拟合时间趋势产量,分离出气象产量。     

条件数在区域日降水量预报中的应用研究

针对前汛期广西北部暴雨洪涝灾害频发的问题，利用T213模式和日本细网格降水预报等数值预报产品，采用条件数计算选取回归因子的方法建立广西北部区域平均降水量的预报方程。进行了2004、2005年两年5-6月的前汛期业务预报应用试验。采用条件数方法建立的预报方程和传统的逐步回归预报方程的平均预报误差分别为6．3569mm和7．0096mm，同期T213模式的预报误差为7．9456mm。试验表明新方法比传统的逐步回归方程和T213模式具有更高的预报精度，有较好的业务应用前景。计算对比可知，采用条件数计算选择的预报因子间的复共线性较微弱，而逐步回归方法选择的因子间的复共线性很严重，影响了回归方程的预报效果。     

利用最优子集回归作鲁南夏季降水量预报

通过普查北半球５００ｈＰａ、１００ｈＰａ月平均高度场与鲁南夏季降水量的相关，选取相关信度达到０．０５的相关区的格点平均高度值作为预报因子，利用最优子集回归建立鲁南夏季降水量预报方程，并投入业务运用，通过与逐步回归方法比较得知，最优子集因归比逐步回归具有更好的预报效果。     

冬半年500hpa月平均格点资料与内蒙古夏季雨量的关系

本文用模糊聚类分析把全区夏季降水分成四个区域，分别计算出每区的平均降水距平百分率和覆盖率。并以500hpa相关区域高度和降水自身周期作因子，用逐步回归双重分析方法建立起8个预报方程，其历史拟合率较高且试用效果较好。     

用逐步回归方法建立前汛期降水量的预报方程

根据新会1971～2003年降水、气温、日照资料，利用相关分析方法挑选因子，然后用逐步回归方法对因子进行筛选，去除次要的，保留最主要的因子，从而建立新会前汛期降水量预报方程。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.