千佛山断裂综合地球物理探测与地震活动性分析

千佛山断裂是济南市的一条重要隐伏断裂,研究该断裂的具体位置,断裂展布以及断裂的活动性具有重要意义。本文利用遥感技术、地球物理勘探(CT)、地质勘察等综合地质与地球物理探测手段,对该断裂地形地貌特征、地质构造特点、地层年代进行研究,分析其地震活动性。结果表明该断层中更新世早中期以来没有明显的活动证据,该断层的活动年代为早更新世-中更新世早期。千佛山断裂的运动性质以张性正断层为主,兼有左旋走滑运动的特点。从断层的几何结构分析,中更新世早中期以前断层经历了多期活动。      

滇西北地震空间密集度及其预报指标

地震观测表明,在大震孕育过程中,一定区域内,都伴随有大量的地震活动,地震空间分布图象会发生变化。在实际预报中主要通过对小震活动条带、围空区、前兆震群等空间分布特征的研究,找出半定量指标对未来地震形势作出判断。地震空间密集度是定量研究地震活动性的一种方法。本文研究了滇西北的地震空间密集度,并提炼出判别指标,通过对1980年以来滇西北M_3≥5.0级地震的10次预报检验,结果表明,滇西北地震空间密集度在实际应用中有一定的应用价值。     

土坡最危险滑裂面的随机搜索和稳定性分析

基于土质滑坡滑裂面的若干实例,总结出发生土质边坡滑裂面的一些规律。据此,提出滑裂面几何参数的若干统计规律。应用蒙特卡洛概念得出一系列滑裂面。用条分法分别确定出抗滑安全系数,安全系数最小的就是最危险滑裂面。通过实例验算,获得较为满意的结果。     

Selection of time step for pseudodynamic testing

Although the step degree of nonlinearity has been introduced to conduct basic analysis and error propagation analysis for the pseudodynamic testing of nonlinear systems, it cannot be reliably used to select an appropriate time step before performing a pseudodynamic test. Therefore, a novel parameter of instantaneous degree of nonlinearity is introduced to monitor the stiffness change at the end of a time step, and can thus be used to evaluate numerical and error propagation properties for nonlinear systems. Based on these properties, it is possible to select an appropriate time step to conduct a pseudodynamic test in advance. This possibility is very important in pseudodynamic testing, since the use of an arbitrary time step might lead to unreliable results or even destroy the test specimen. In this paper, guidelines are proposed for choosing an appropriate time step for accurate integration of nonlinear systems. These guidelines require estimation of the maximum instantaneous degree of nonlinearity and the solution of the initial natural frequency. The Newmark explicit method is chosen for this study. All the analytical results and the guidelines proposed are thoroughly confirmed with numerical examples.     

现代板块运动驱动地幔块体置换度及地幔混合的研究

定义了描述地幔混合程度的新的统计学量度——地幔块体对流置换度和对流混合扩散度.地幔块体对流置换度等于至少被置换一次的块体数与地幔总块体数之比,对流混合扩散度等于示踪元初始体密度与示踪元终体密度之比.本研究假设地幔对流是稳定的,上地幔和下地幔的黏滞性存在差异,其驱动力为板块运动或地幔中密度异常分布.实验中地幔被划分为20736 个块体（5°×5°×300 km）,2376个示踪元被放置在地幔顶部100 km深度或底部100 km高度的5°×5°的网格点上.模型计算表明, 地幔块体对流置换度随运转时间变化.就全地幔而言,在系统运行四十亿年后,大多数模型对应的块体对流置换度均超过80%,而上地幔块体置换度则达到90%.这预示大多数的地幔块体将被来自其他位置的块体所取代.对于放置在地幔顶部或底部,浓缩于很小空间10°×10°(间距0.25°) 中的两组1681个示踪元而言,尽管其对流混合扩散度在开始有较大的差异,但是在运行一段时间之后,此两组对应的对流混合扩散度均趋于常数,示踪元比较均匀地分布于全地幔之中.由以上的结果可以推断,在经历了四十五亿年的演化过程后,由于对流的作用使地幔基本上已经均匀混合,地幔中不大可能存在尺度大于5°×5°×300 km的异常块体.     

地震非均匀度物理意义的实验研究

资料表明某些强地震前中小地震的地震非均匀度（GL值）参数在强地震孕育进入中期或短期阶段出现明显异常变化, 显示出区域中小地震活动状态发生变化. 本文通过对含有障碍体的平直断层、 挤压型雁列式断层及Ⅲ型剪切裂纹等3种类型的岩石样本变形破坏过程声发射事件时间序列的分析, 讨论了GL值变化的物理意义. 计算结果表明, 这3种标本变形破坏过程中, 在应力应变处于非弹性阶段前夕或在岩石整体破裂失稳前破裂成核期间, GL值出现持续大于１的异常变化. 表明GL值能较好地刻画受压岩石破坏前的应变的非弹性变化, 具有一定的标本破裂指示意义.      

Study on the physical meaning of seismic inhomogeneous degree by rock fracture experiments

Introduction The study of acoustic emission evidenced by rock fracture experiments is the most important field of seismology. By means of the rock fracture technique system, many researchers tried to prove the possible relationship between some parameters such as b value and the stress variation prior to rock fracture using the acoustic emission results from different types of rock fracture ex-periments (MA et al, 2004a, b; Lockner, 1993; JIANG and ZHANG, 1998). In order to investigate th…     

河南及邻区ML≥4.7地震前b值c值d值综合异常识别

从ML≥4.7地震前震中附近地区中小地震活动呈现增强过程及地震活动参数表现的异常现象出发,对河南及邻区1970年至今ML≥4.7地震前b值、c值、d值的综合异常进行了分析,认为其对提高地震分析预报的可信度,较好地避免单方法预报的虚报、漏报有一定的效果。     

研究地震空区及条带附近地震破裂特征方法的误差讨论

较详细地讨论了确定中小地震破裂面方向和环境应力值方法的误差.分析表明,引起破裂方向误差的主要因素是台站包围震中的张角和制作广义方向性函数理论量板的精细程度.若对于θ角(台站和震中的连线与主破裂方向之间的夹角)每隔15°给出一条理论曲线,当台站包围震中张角大于60°时,其误差可小于15°.引起环境应力值τ0相对误差的主要因素是震级误差.若震级误差为0.3,可引起τ0的相对误差为70%.     

不同距离力源作用下脆性破裂的稳定性和止裂

根据断裂力学的原理, 提出了脆性破裂的止裂准则, 给出了最小止裂方程. 利用Erdogan的集中力的零频Green函数解, 分析了点力和简单分布力的位置对脆性破裂的稳定性和止裂的作用, 给出了若干典型条件下临界载荷、 失稳边界线、 止裂点的计算结果. 近距离力源引起的稳定性破裂, 对于解释一些蠕裂和构造的形成是有意义的; 不同距离力源引起的失稳破裂, 对于解释不同震级地震的发生和停止是有意义的. 强地震的发生有可能是远场力与近场力各种复合作用的结果. 本文的结果对于认识诱发地震的力学机制也有重要意义.      

Steadiness and stop of brittle fracture driven by the forces in different distances

Introduction The problem of crack stop of fault is of special importance in geosciences. This is because the risk of rupture of large scale fault is taken as the object of investigation in the geosciences. In some meaning, the stop of earthquake rupture is more important than initial because of its influ-ence on the prediction of energy releasing during the earthquake. There are quite a few of factors that cause stop of the fault. For example, the effect of barriers, the rapid healing of shea…     

A model of nonuniform fracture system for Langcang-Gengma earthquake sequence and elasto-plastic computation method

Based on the observation data, it is found that the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is resulting from the propagation of a nonuniform fracture system in which the lengths and strikes of fractures are different from each other, the stress field and medium condition around fractures are also heterogeneous. Therefore, a mechanical model simulating suitably the fracture processes of the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is suggested in this paper. The fracture criterions and computation method for elastic fracture and elasto-plastic fracture are studied. The stress intensity factor, strain energy release rate and J-integral are evaluated respectively. The forward and inverse method jointing a variety of observation data to determine the earthquake fracture processes is also developed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 463–471, 1992. This project was sponsored by the Chinese Jonit Seismological Science Foundation.     

南极湖泊沉积物中有机硫组成及其与铁硫化物的联系

本文利用有机硫硫同位素组成(δ34Sorg)及活性铁的黄铁矿化度(DOP)和硫化度(DOS)研究了南极阿德雷岛受企鹅活动影响的Y2湖和未受影响的菲尔德斯半岛燕鸥湖YO沉积物中有机硫的来源组成及其与铁硫化物的联系.结果 表明,Y2沉积物1～15 cm较低的δ34Sorg指示有机质硫化形成的贫34S成岩有机硫(Sdiag)...     

中国大陆主要强震区强震活动的关联分析

运用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法研究了我国大陆主要强震区强震活动的关联性。结果表明:青藏强震区、南北强震带和北疆强震区强震活动的相互关联程度较强;华北强震区的强震活动与其他强震区的关系较弱,具有一定的独立性。     

Dynamic damage and its physical meaning as a seismicity status parameter

Whentherearemicroormacrofissuresinrock,itisconsideredthattherockseveresdamage.Becausethesefissuresarenotsimplifiedintooneormorecracks.Intheconditionoffatigueandofcreepstrain,manymicrofissurescandevelopintothemacrofractureintherockwhere\/ecallitadamagedregion.Recentlythemechanicsfunctionofadamagedregionisconsideredacontinuedvariancefieldoradamagedfield.Withthestatisticalmechanicsmethod,thedamagedrockresearchescanmakeusseethewholeprocessofbreaking.lDynamicdamageThedamageisaresultfrommanyfissure…     

陕西韩城龙湾—上峪口现今破裂带成因探讨

陕西韩城西山古生代地层中存在一系列现代破裂形变现象。本文对该现象作了较详细的描述,认为它处在一个特殊的构造部位与地貌部位,在人类活动(采煤)的环境条件下,因重力作用而造成。同时认为该现象作为一次古代大地震遗迹的看法,证据尚不充分     

地震空区及条带附近地震破裂特征的震例研究

选取邢台1981年Ms 5.8、菏泽1983年Ms 5.9和射阳1987年Ms 5.1三个震例，研究了孕震中后期中小地震的破裂特征。结果表明：震前区域内中小地震多倾向于单侧破裂；邢台、菏泽地区的中小震具有优势的破裂面走向，与主震破裂面一致或共轭；震前中小地震的环境应力值τ0略大于正常时期；射阳不存在优势破裂面走向；菏泽Ms 5.9 和射阳Ms 5.1孕震空区边缘上的地震都倾向于单侧破裂，并且主破裂方向都不指向空区内部。     

Percolation theory as a tool for imitation of fracture process in rocks

The statistical models of earthquake focal processes covering topological, kinetic, energetic and scaling aspects of the phenomenon are considered on the basis of the percolation and reliability theories. It is shown that these models do not contradict the basic experimental data of physics of fracture and seismology. Some predictive signs are also considered.     

岩石蠕变破坏实验研究及其对地震预报的意义

通过对不同温度和围压条件下济南辉长岩的蠕变破坏实验结果和声发射特征分析,本文提出以岩石蠕变破坏应变做为岩石蠕变破坏判据。建立了岩石蠕变破坏应变的经验关系式。依据实验结果得到相应的济南辉长岩蠕变破坏应变参数,进一步探讨了预报岩石蠕变破坏和地震的方法     

应用地震拓扑预测对华北地区进行地震危险趋势估计

本文应用地震拓扑预测方法,对华北地区进行了地震长期趋势估计。通过实例计算证明,其拓扑预测模型精度较高,可以预测该区未来强震的危险性。