Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory

Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2?×?0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement (D _max), maximum velocity (V _max), and design ground acceleration.     

新疆及其毗邻地区地震层析成像

利用新疆地震台网及其毗邻地区的国外地震台站提供的地震Ｐ波到时数据，重建了新疆及其毗邻地区地壳上地幔的三维速度图像．主要结果是：１．研究区地壳上地幔的地震波速度存在明显的横向不均匀性．这种不均匀性出现在不同构造单元之间，也出现在各构造单元之内．２．一般来说，研究区域内盆地是上地幔的隆起区，褶皱系是上地幔的坳陷区．３．岩石层厚度和软流层的深度与全球的平均结果有较大不同．４．海洋岩石层或大陆岩石层板块在兴都库什和克什米尔与中国交界地区的消减明显存在．５．地壳上地幔物质运动比较剧烈，有部分熔融物质上涌到地壳中部或更浅的深度．     

流变边界层及其对华北克拉通热/地震岩石圈底界差异的意义

二维热传导/对流数值模型显示,纯传导的固体岩石圈与纯对流的流体软流圈之间存在一过渡层,即流变边界层,其间传导与对流共同作用来传递热量.流变边界层厚度主要由软流圈黏性系数（η）控制,而受固体岩石圈厚度及热状态影响很小.随着η从1×10²¹Pa·s降低至1×10¹⁹ Pa·s,流变边界层也随之减薄,流变边界层的厚度与lg（η）成正比. 流变边界层的存在是造成热岩石圈与地震岩石圈厚度差异的重要因素. 全球典型克拉通岩石圈的对比结果表明,地震岩石圈厚度普遍大于热岩石圈厚度,二者的差异多数在70~90 km,很好地验证了流变边界层的存在. 研究发现二者的差异在华北克拉通自西向东逐渐减小：由西部鄂尔多斯的约80 km减少至渤海湾盆地的约20 km. 反映出华北克拉通岩石圈下部流变边界层厚度自西向东减薄,意味着软流圈黏性系数自西向东逐渐降低.这可能与中生代太平洋俯冲脱水形成的低黏大地幔楔有关,从一侧面印证了太平洋俯冲对华北克拉通破坏的影响.     

Relation Between the Asthenosphere Thickness Distribution Characteristics and Tectogenesis of the Northeastern Margin of Sino-Korean Platform and Its Neighboring Area

Based on the results of multiple geophysical research methods,the lithosphere thicknessisolines of the northeastern margin of Sino-Korean platform and its neighboring area havebeen compiled and the geotectonic significance and the geodynamic characteristics of depthdistribution of asthenosphere roof have been also discussed.The authors proposed that closerrelation exists between the depth of asthenosphere roof and the tectonic activity as well as themodern faulting and seismic activity from Meso-Cenozoic Era till now.The upper mantleasthenosphere is generally uplift in Hailar basin,Bohal Bay-Xia Liaohe basin andSonghuajiang-Liaohe basin.Meanwhile,there exists modern seismic activity and groundsubsidence in this area.It is result from the uplift of upper mantle asthenosphere.     

Electromagnetic Studies Of The Lithosphere And Asthenosphere

In geodynamic models of the Earth's interior, the lithosphere and asthenosphere are defined in terms of their rheology. Lithosphere has high viscosity, and can be divided into an elastic region at temperatures below 350 °C and an anelastic region above 650 °C. Beneath the lithosphere lies the ductile asthenosphere, with one- to two-orders of magnitude lower viscosity. Asthenosphere represents the location in the mantle where the melting point (solidus) is most closely approached, and sometimes intersected. Seismic, gravity and isostatic observations provide constraints on lithosphere-asthenosphere structure in terms of shear-rigidity, density and viscosity, which are all rheological properties. In particular, seismic shear- and surface-wave analyses produce estimates of a low-velocity zone (LVZ) asthenosphere at depths comparable to the predicted rheological transitions. Heat flow measurements on the ocean floor also provide a measure of the thermal structure of the lithosphere.Electromagnetic (EM) observations provide complementary information on lithosphere-asthenosphere structure in terms of electrical conductivity. Laboratory studies of mantle minerals show that EM observations are very sensitive to the presence of melt or volatiles. A high conductivity zone (HCZ) in the upper mantle therefore represents an electrical asthenosphere (containing melt and/or volatile) that may be distinct from a rheological asthenosphere and the LVZ. Additionally, the vector propagation of EM fields in the Earth provides information on anisotropic conduction in the lithosphere and asthenosphere. In the last decade, numerous EM studies have focussed on the delineation of an HCZ in the upper mantle, and the determination of melt/volatile fractions and the dynamics of the lithosphere-asthenosphere. Such HCZs have been imaged under a variety of tectonic zones, including mid-ocean ridges and continental rifts, but Archaean shields show little evidence of an HCZ, implying that the geotherm is always below the mantle solidus. Anisotropy in the conductivity of oceanic and continental lithosphere has also been detected, but it is not clear if the HCZ is also anisotropic. Although much progress has been made, these results have raised new and interesting questions of asthenosphere melt/volatiles porosity and permeability, and lithosphere-upper mantle heterogeneity. It is likely that in the next decade EM will continue to make a significant contribution to our understanding of plate tectonic processes.     

场地放大效应的估计

本利用唐山地区9个台站得到的13次近场地震记录分析了场地放大效应，其中一些站位于废弃的地下煤矿坑道内，最深的一个台站在地下822m处，首先检验确定了地面反射波对地下场地的入射波没有很大影响，在后利用地下基岩场地台站（－822m)作参考场地，用线性反演法来同时分离震源，传播途径和局部场地效应，结果发现：在1至10Hz的频段上S波品质因子Qs基本上与频率成正比；与以地面基岩场地作参考场地所得的结果相比较，地面基岩场地的反应并不是一常数，它在大于6Hz的高频段上有明显的放大作用，在本的研究事件中，在6至10Hz的频段上这个放大纱数约为2至4。这表明由于地面基岩场地本身的放大作用，将导致在作场地震动预测时会低估地震作用，最后采用一种新的非参考场地法，即遗传算法，用w^2震源模型来估计绝对场地效应。在本的研究结果中，对大多数台站场地来说，所得的绝对场地应应与以地下基岩台站作参考场地所得的相对场地效应十分一致。这表明这作场地震动分析时，当仔细考虑了反射波对入射波的影响后，地下或井下基岩场地是比地面基岩场地更合适的参考场地。     

Study of seismic tomography in Panxi paleorift area of southwestern China--Structural features of crust and mantle and their evolution

Structural features of the typical continental paleorift in Panxiarea are revealed by seismic tomography. (1) In the profile along the minor axis of Panxi paleorift, we found alternating high and low-velocity strips existing at different depths in the crust, presenting itself as a "sandwich" structure. The existence of these high and low-velocity anomaly strips is related to the basal lithology in the rift area. (2) An addition layer with velocity values of 7.1-7.5 km/s and 7.8 km/s exists from the base of lower crust to uppermost mantle and its thickness is about 20 km. Some study results indicate that the addition layer results from the invasion of mantle material. (3) A lens-shaped high-velocity body surrounded by relatively low-velocity material is observed at depths of 110-160 km between Huaping and Huidong in the axis of the paleorift. This is the first time to discover it in the upper mantle of the paleorift. Based on the results of geology, petrology and geochemistry, we infer that the formation of the addition layer and the lens-shaped high-velocity body in the upper mantle are related to the deep geodynamic process of generation, development and termination of the rift. On the one hand, the upwelling of asthenosphere mantle caused partial melting, and then the basaltic magma from the partial melted material further resulted in underplating and formed the crustal addition layer. On the other hand, the high-density content of mineral facies was increased in the residual melted mass of intensely depleted upper mantle, formed by basalt withdrawing. The solid-melt medium in the depleted upper mantle was mainly an accumulation of garnet and peridotite because the heating effect of lithosphere was relatively weakened in the later riftogenesis, so that a lens-shaped high-density and high-velocity zone was produced in the upper mantle. The results indicate that the energy and material exchange between asthenosphere and lithosphere and remarkable underplating would have an important effect on the material state and propagation of seismic wave in the lower crust, crust-mantle interface, asthenosphere and lithosphere. This process possibly is an important mechanism on the growth of continental crust and the evolution of deep mantle.     

Study of seismic tomography in Panxi paleorift area of southwestern China Structural features of crust and mantle and their evolution

Structural features of the typical continental paleorift in Panxi area are revealed by seismic tomography. (1) In the profile along the minor axis of Panxi paleorift, we found alternating high and low-velocity strips existing at different depths in the crust, presenting itself as a “sandwich” structure. The existence of these high and low-velocity anomaly strips is related to the basal lithology in the rift area. (2) An addition layer with velocity values of 7.1-7.5 km/s and 7.8 km/s exists from the base of lower crust to uppermost mantle and its thickness is about 20 km. Some study results indicate that the addition layer results from the invasion of mantle material. (3) A lens-shaped high-velocity body surrounded by relatively low-velocity material is observed at depths of 110-160 km between Huaping and Huidong in the axis of the paleorift. This is the first time to discover it in the upper mantle of the paleorift. Based on the results of geology, petrology and geochemistry, we infer that the formation of the addition layer and the lens-shaped high-velocity body in the upper mantle are related to the deep geodynamic process of generation, development and termination of the rift. On the one hand, the upwelling of asthenosphere mantle caused partial melting, and then the basaltic magma from the partial melted material further resulted in underplating and formed the crustal addition layer. On the other hand, the high-density content of mineral facies was increased in the residual melted mass of intensely depleted upper mantle, formed by basalt withdrawing. The solid-melt medium in the depleted upper mantle was mainly an accumulation of garnet and peridotite because the heating effect of lithosphere was relatively weakened in the later riftogenesis, so that a lens-shaped high-density and high-velocity zone was produced in the upper mantle. The results indicate that the energy and material exchange between asthenosphere and lithosphere and remarkable underplating would have an important effect on the material state and propagation of seismic wave in the lower crust, crust-mantle interface, asthenosphere and lithosphere. This process possibly is an important mechanism on the growth of continental crust and the evolution of deep mantle.     

中国西北大陆碰撞带的深部特征及其动力学意义

以中国大陆西北地区地震层析成像的结果为基础，通过分析大陆块体内部岩石层和软流层的深部形态，提出西部造山带与相邻块体之间几种可能的碰撞类型：天山与塔里木之间存在地块的嵌入拼合、俯冲、岩石层拆离下沉以及层间插入等多种构造样式；青藏高原与北部地质单元之间存在十分清晰的深部边界，反映出上地幔物质向北扩展的痕迹；推测青藏高原的岩石层在向北运动的过程中由于受到塔里木刚性块体的阻滞发生弯曲甚至折断，但是祁连山以北较浅的软流层相当于一个开放边界，使高原的上地幔物质得以进一步向北迁移.大陆碰撞不仅造成中国西部造山带岩石层结构的变动，而且导致软流层中一部分熔融的岩浆体沿着碰撞边界上涌到岩石层底部，它们对青藏高原以及西部造山带的形成演化起到重要的作用.     

利用面波方法研究欧亚大陆及周边海域岩石圈结构

根据欧亚大陆及周边海域114个数字地震台站12 000多个长周期波形记录,采用面波频散反演方法,对欧亚大陆及周边海域(20°W～160°E,20°S～80°N)的地壳上地幔进行了高分辨率三维S波速度成像。结果表明,欧亚大陆及其周边海域岩石圈厚度由40～60km(大陆裂谷带)增厚至190～220km(克拉通地区),岩石圈速度变化范围为4.30～4.80km/s。直到400km深度,各个板块和地块的横向差异才逐渐减小。克拉通板块及地块的岩石圈巨厚且具有高速特征,软流圈很薄或不存在;显生宙造山带、边缘海等区域岩石圈较薄且速度较低,软流圈发育。海洋板块的显著特征是VS在岩石圈内异常高,而软流圈速度又异常低,有十分尖锐的速度突变。     

On Presence of Seismic Anisotropy in the Asthenosphere beneath Continents and its Dependence on Plate Velocity: Significance of Reference Frame Selection

—We examine the possibility of seismic anisotropy in the asthenosphere due to present plate motion using SKS splitting results. The fast directions of anisotropy correlate weakly with the directions of the absolute plate motion (APM) for all APM models. Weak correlation indicates the possibility of asthenospheric anisotropy as well as frozen anisotropy in the lithosphere. Detection of strain rate dependence of anisotropy is helpful to further conclusion of the problem. The selection of reference frame is important to describe shear deformation in the asthenosphere beneath continent due to plate motion. The behavior of hot spots to the mesosphere, fixed or drifted by mantle return flow, is a key of the selection of the reference frame. For the NNR-NUVEL1 model, APM correlated anisotropy appears only at plate velocity faster than 1.4 cm/yr. It suggests the new possibility of the formation of asthenospheric anisotropy in addition to frozen anisotropy in the lithosphere. A critical plate velocity for the formation of anisotropy can be caused by the dislocation-diffusion transition as a function of strain rate on a deformation mechanism map of the upper mantle olivine.     

Upper mantle low anisotropy channels below the Pacific Plate

A new 3D anisotropic model has been obtained at a global scale by using a massive dataset of seismic surface waves. Though seismic heterogeneities are usually interpreted in terms of heterogeneous temperature field, a large part of lateral variations are also induced by seismic anisotropy of upper mantle minerals. New insight into convection processes can be gained by taking seismic anisotropy into account in the inversion procedure. The model is best resolved in the Pacific Plate, the largest and the most active tectonic plate. Superimposed on the large-scale radial (ξ parameter) and azimuthal anisotropy (of V_SV velocity) within and below the lithosphere, correlated with present or past Pacific Plate motions, are smaller-scale (<1000 km) lateral variations of anisotropy not predicted by plate tectonics. Channels of low anisotropy down to a depth of 200 km (hereafter referred to as LAC) are observed and are the best resolved anomalies: one east-west channel between Easter Island and the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zones (observed on both radial and azimuthal anisotropies) and a second one (only observed on azimuthal anisotropy) extending from the south-west Pacific up to south-east Hawaii, and passing through the Polynesia hotspot group for plate older than about 40 Ma. These features provide strong constraints on the decoupling between the plate and asthenosphere. They are presumably related to cracking within the Pacific Plate and/or to secondary convection below the rigid lithosphere, predicted by numerical and analog experiments. The existence and location of these LACs might be related to the current active volcanoes and hotspots (possibly plumes) in the Central Pacific. LACs, which are dividing the Pacific Plate into smaller units, might indicate a future reorganization of plates with ridge migrations in the Pacific Ocean.     

基于sP前驱震相叠加研究南美中部地区岩石圈-软流圈边界形态

岩石圈-软流圈边界(lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary)是上地幔内具有负速度梯度的地震波速度界面.对俯冲带区域LAB开展地震学探测有助于进一步认识岩石圈和软流圈的相互作用以及与板块俯冲有关的地球动力学过程.本文收集了2006-2012年发生于南美中部地区4个深源地震的垂向宽频带波形资料,利用线性倾斜叠加处理得到了相对走时-慢度域的灰度图,并成功提取了sP在LAB底反射的前驱震相S_(LAB)P.基于改进的一维速度模型IASP91-SA计算得出了6个S_(LAB)P震相反射点的水平分布,并划分为西部(Ⅰ)和东部(Ⅱ)分区:分区工内LAB深度位于60~63 km,平均深度为61 km,起伏为3 km;分区Ⅱ内LAB深度位于78~82 km,平均深度为80 km,起伏为4 km.研究结果显示南美中部地区LAB深度自西向东呈变大的趋势,这可能反映了大陆岩石圈受改造程度的差异.我们推测在靠近海沟的地区,软流圈内部分熔融程度较高且熔体较为富集,对大陆岩石圈的侵蚀作用较强;在远离海沟的地区,软流圈内部分熔融程度降低且熔体分布减少,对大陆岩石圈的侵蚀作用减弱.     

柴达木盆地深部物理参数的反演

通过研究地球对表面载荷的响应来反演确定地球深部的物理参数.采用分为4层的地球模型,各层的介质被看作Maxwell粘弹性体.将柴达木盆地沉降发育过程中积累的沉积物作为随时间变化的载荷加于地表,通过拟合柴达木盆地沉降中心附近地区的沉降过程来研究该地区地壳的厚度及剪切模量、岩石层地幔的粘性及软流层的粘性等物理参数.计算结果表明,该地区地壳的剪切模量不会超过全球平均值的60％,岩石层地幔的粘性系数不大于1.5×10²³Pa·s.通过研究对该地区的深部物理参数得出了新的认识.     

青藏高原东北缘岩石圈三维密度结构

综合重力观测资料和地震波走时资料反演了青藏高原东北缘岩石圈三维密度结构,并对该区岩石圈结构及动力学特征进行了讨论.首先利用收集到的P波近震和远震走时数据进行地震层析成像,得到研究区岩石圈三维P波速度结构.然后利用速度-密度经验关系式,将速度扰动转化为密度扰动建立研究区三维初始密度模型.最后利用分离的布格重力异常反演得到了岩石圈三维密度结构.反演结果表明:青藏高原东北缘地壳密度结构特征有利于地震孕育发生和地壳物质侧向流动;地壳内,密度异常等值线走向与地表断裂走向基本一致,进入地幔后,密度异常等值线走向发生了顺时针旋转,这表明青藏高原东北缘地壳和地幔具有不同的构造运动模式,暗示该区可能发生了壳幔解耦;80~100 km深度上,P波速度异常较密度异常明显偏低,推测该区可能发生了部分熔融或者岩石含水量的增加;印度板块俯冲和周围坚硬块体阻挡联合作用,使得青藏高原东北缘形成了强大的区域构造应力场,并导致深部软流圈热物质上涌,为该区壳幔解耦、部分熔融和P波速度降低创造了条件.     

The Deformational Response of a Viscoelastic Solid Earth Model Coupled to a Thermomechanical Ice Sheet Model

We apply a coupled thermomechanical ice sheet—self-gravitating viscoelastic solid Earth model (SGVEM), allowing for the dynamic exchange of ice thickness and bedrock deformation, in order to investigate the effect of viscoelastic deformation on ice dynamics and vice versa. In a synthetic glaciation scenario, we investigate the interaction between the ice sheet and the solid Earth deformation, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), accounting for an atmospheric forcing depending on the ice sheet surface altitude. We compare the results from the coupled model to runs with the common elastic lithosphere/relaxing asthenosphere (ELRA) model, where the lithosphere is represented by a thin plate and the mantle relaxes with one characteristic relaxation time, as well as to a rigid Earth without any deformation. We find that the deformational behaviour of the SGVEM on ice dynamics (i.e. stored ice volume, ice thickness and velocity field) is comparable to the ELRA for an optimal choice of the parameters in steady state, but exhibits differences in the transient behaviour. Beyond the ice sheet, in the region of peripheral forebulge, the differences in the transient surface deformation between ELRA and SGVEM are substantial, demonstrating the inadequacy of the ELRA model for interpreting constraints on GIA in the periphery of the ice sheet, such as sea-level indicators and GPS uplift rates.     

呼包盆地周缘壳、幔结构研究

对呼包盆地周边七个台站的远震接收函数研究表明：研究区地壳厚度为43～46 km,地壳速度比和S波速度结构均无异常;阴山造山带岩石圈埋深为65～85 km,且上地幔S波平均速度偏低,是典型的异常地幔区.根据S波速度结构和地壳厚度随地形高程反比的变化关系,以及地表广泛出露的幔源玄武岩分布,推测该区地幔深部热物质上涌是阴山造山带隆升的原因之一.上升的软流层物质与地幔发生交代、侵蚀作用导致岩石圈减薄,S波速度降低.呼包盆地的形成可能与深部物质上涌造成的拉张效应有关.     

Electromagnetic excitation of asthenospheric conducting zones

The relations between galvanic and inductive electromagnetic excitation of 3-D asthenospheric conducting zones are considered. Mathematical modeling with the application of integral equations shows that the rather intense magnetotelluric anomalies reflecting the topography of the conducting asthenosphere arise via the galvanic channel, which has two branches: (1) the lithospheric branch (an electric current flows from the sedimentary cover into the lithosphere and concentrates in uplifts of the conducting asthenosphere), which is inactive in the case of a very high resistivity of the lithosphere (the screening effect), and (2) the mantle branch (the deep mantle current flows from below into uplifts of the conducting asthenosphere), which is free from the screening effect of a high resistivity lithosphere. In previous works, the mantle branch of the galvanic channel was erroneously associated with local induction in uplifts of the asthenosphere. According to modern estimates, local induction in the asthenosphere generates weak magnetotelluric anomalies that cannot be reliably measured.