The relationship of current fluctuations on the Southeast United States shelf to fluctuations of the wind and gulf stream and the East China Sea analog

Sub-tidal (1.04–25 day) current fluctuations during winter/spring on the continental shelf off Savannah, Georgia (32°N) and off St. Augustine, Florida (30°N) were compared with records of local wind stress components and GulfStream position. (Acoustic travel time and bottom pressure measurements at stations on the continental slope were combined to determine main, thermocline depth, as an indicator of Gulf Stream displacement). Relative wind influences increased towards the coast. GulfStream influence increased towards the shelf-break and towards the surface. Off Savannah, the Gulf Stream influence was predominately at 12 day period and was negligible at the 45 m isobath. Off St. Augustine, its influence was predominately at 4 day period and was appreciable at the 40 m isobath (but negligeable at the 28 m isobath). Linear predictions of currents from wind and Gulf Stream account for ∼80% of the observed variance. Similar methods of studying and predicting the wind—and Kuroshio-influenced currents on the East China Shelf are proposed.     

An assessment of a nowcast/forecast system for the straits of Florida/Florida Current regime

The Florida Current （FC） largely fills the Straits of Florida and is variable on a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Some portions of the variability are due to variable forcing by tides, winds, heating/cooling, and throughflow; other portions are due to intrinsic instabilities of the FC. To predict, as well as to better understand this complex regime, a nowcast/forecast system （East Florida Shelf Information System （EFSIS）） has been implemented and assessed （http：//efsis. rsmas. miami. edu）. EFSIS is based on an implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） with mesoscale-admitting resolution on a curvilinear grid. It is forced by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system （called Eta） run operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, eight tidal constituents from a global tidal model, and lateral boundary conditions from an operational global ocean prediction model, i.e., the Navy Coastal Ocean Model （NCOM）. Real-time observations of coastal sea level, coastal sea surface temperature, coastal HF radar-derived surface current maps, and FC volume transport are used to verify and validate EFSIS. EFSIS is part of an evolving strategy for real-time predictive coastal ocean modeling methodology, and for fostering the understanding of the variability of the regime on several time and space scales. Here, some of the verification and validation results are provided, as well as diagnostic analyses of dynamical processes. The central point is that an example is provided of a ＇scientific revolution＇ in progress that combines real-time observations and numerical circulation models to yield a credible sequence of synoptic views of coastal ocean circulation for the first time.     

Numerical simulation of the structure and variation of upwelling off the east coast of Hainan Island using QuikSCAT winds

The spatial structure and variation of the upwelling in the waters east and northeast of Hainan Island, China during 2000-2007 were investigated using a nested high-resolution Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forced by QuikSCAT winds. The model produced good simulations of the summer upwelling and the seasonal and annual variability. Strong upwelling occurs from mid-July to mid-August with a peak east of Hainan Island associated with the southwesterly monsoon in the South China Sea. Sensitivity experiments indicated that when the local wind stress controls the variability of the upwelling, the large-scale circulation significantly enhances the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island by inducing a local upwelling and transporting cold water northeast-ward along the island’s east coast. The joint effects of the local wind stress and large-scale circulation result in stronger upwelling northeast of Hainan Island. This implies that the annual variation of the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island is controlled not only by the local alongshore wind stress but also by the large-scale circulation. This result will help us investigate the decadal variation of the upwelling in this region in the future.     

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system(ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry(PI) and the other for the A1 FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.     

Seasonal variability of the North Equatorial Current transport in the western Pacific Ocean

Seasonal variability of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） transport in the western Pacific Ocean is investigated with ECMWF Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis System 3 （eRA-S3）. The result shows that NEC transport （NT） across different longitudes in the research area shows a similar double-peak structure, with two maxima （in summer and winter）, and two minima （in spring and autumn）. This kind of structure can also be found in NEC geostrophic transport （NGT）, but in a different magnitude and phase. These differences are attributable to Ekman transport induced by the local meridional wind and transport caused by nonzero velocity at the reference level, which is assumed to be zero in the NGT calculation. In the present work, a linear vorticity equation governing a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model is adopted to examine the dynamics of the seasonal variability of NGT. It is found that the annual cycle of NGT is mainly controlled by Ekman pumping induced by local wind, and westward-propagating Rossby waves induced by remote wind. Further research demonstrates that the maximum in winter and minimum in spring are mostly attributed to wind east of the dateline, whilst the maximum in summer and minimum in autumn are largely attributed to that west of the dateline.     

The effect of the East China Sea Kuroshio Front on the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Various satellite data, JRA-25 (Japan reanalysis of 25 years) reanalyzed data and WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model are used to investigate the in situ effect of the ESKF (East China Sea Kuroshio Front) on the MABL (marine atmospheric boundary layer). The intensity of the ESKF is most robust from January to April in its annual cycle. The local strong surface northerly/northeasterly winds are observed right over the ESKF in January and in April and the wind speeds decrease upward in the MABL. The thermal wind effect that is derived from the baroclinic MABL forced by the strong SST gradient contributes to the strong surface winds to a large degree. The convergence zone existing along the warm flank of the ESKF is stronger in April than in January corresponding to the steeper SST (sea surface temperature) gradient. The collocations of the cloud cover maximum and precipitation maximum are basically consistent with the convergence zone of the wind field. The clouds develop higher (lower) in the warm (cold) flank of the ESKF due to the less (more) stable stratification in the MABL. The lowest clouds are observed in April on the cold flank of the ESKF and over the Yellow Sea due to the existence of the pronounced temperature inversion. The numerical experiments with smoothed SST are consistent with the results from the ovservations.     

The gulf stream off the east coast of the United States

Current and temperature data from a one-year-long instrument deployment in the region just northeast of Cape Hatteras have shown the oceanic variability to be, intense and quite complex. Changes in the position of the Gulf Stream’s path were observed to occur following cold core Gulf Stream passages through the area. The time between these changes was a few months. The Gulf Stream jet itself was seen to meander in a manner previously observed, as long as it was not undergoing a strong ring/stream interaction. Several isolated vortices progressed through the array, with the majority of them being in the submesoscale coherent vortex class. Two mid-depth, anticyclonic warm eddies progressed through the array. It is likely the two events were caused by two different transits of the same eddy. The deep waters below the main thermocline oscillated as topographic Rossby waves progressed through the array area.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

The formation of wind curl in the marine atmosphere boundary layer over the East China Sea Kuroshio in spring

Various data are used to investigate the characteristics of the surface wind field and rainfall on the East China Sea Kuroshio (ESK) in March and April, 2011. In March, the wind speed maximum shows over the ESK front (ESKF) in the 10 meter wind field, which agrees with the thermal wind effect. A wind curl center is generated on the warm flank of the ESKF. The winds are much weaker in April, so is the wind curl. A rainband exists over the ESKF in both the months. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for further researches. The winds on the top of the marine atmosphere boundary layer (MABL) indicate that in March, a positive wind curl is generated in the whole MABL over the warm flank of the ESKF. The thermal wind effect forced by the strong SST gradient overlying the background wind leads to strong surface northeasterly winds on the ESKF, and a positive shearing vorticity is created over the warm flank of the ESKF to generate wind curl. In the smoothed sea surface temperature experiment, the presence of the ESKF is responsible for the strong northeast winds in the ESKF, and essential for the distribution of the rainfall centers in March, which confirms the mechanism above. The same simulation is made for April, 2011, and the responses from the MABL become weak. The low background wind speed weakens the effect of the thermal wind, thus no strong Ekman pumping is helpful for precipitation. There is no big difference in rainfall between the control run and the smooth SST run. Decomposition of the wind vector shows that local wind acceleration induced by the thermal wind effect along with the variations in wind direction is responsible for the pronounced wind curl/divergence over the ESKF.     

Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The 21st century Maritime Silk Road(MSR) proposed by China strongly promotes the maritime industry. In this paper, we use wind and ocean wave datasets from 1979 to 2014 to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of the wind speed, significant wave height(SWH), mean wave direction(MWD), and mean wave period(MWP) in the MSR. The analysis results indicate that the Luzon Strait and Gulf of Aden have the most obvious seasonal variations and that the central Indian Ocean is relatively stable. We analyzed the distributions of the maximum wind speed and SWH in the MSR over this 36-year period. The results show that the distribution of the monthly average frequency for SWH exceeds 4 m(huge waves) and that of the corresponding wind speed exceeds 13.9 ms~(-1)(high wind speed). The occurrence frequencies of huge waves and high winds in regions east of the Gulf of Aden are as high as 56% and 80%, respectively. We also assessed the wave and wind energies in different seasons. Based on our analyses, we propose a risk factor(RF) for determining navigation safety levels, based on the wind speed and SWH. We determine the spatial and temporal RF distributions for different seasons and analyze the corresponding impact on four major sea routes. Finally, we determine the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015 and analyze the corresponding impact on the four sea routes. The analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the MSR provides references for ship navigation as well as ocean engineering.     

Dynamics of warm-core mesoscale eddies

A nonlinear model of a warm-core ring is presented here. The model treats the warm core ring as a confined lens of fluid rotating on anf plane. A simple polynomial expansion of the hydrodynamic field variables about the center of mass of the lens provides the basis for an exact reduction of the hydrodynamic equations. Observations from two warm-core rings are compared with simulations from the nonlinear model. Fair agreement is found between model calculations and observations from the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. Contribution No.1747 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica     

Effect of meridional wind on gap-leaping western boundary current

Using a 1.5-layer reduced-gravity nonlinear shallow-water equation model, we studied the effect of the meridional wind on the western boundary currents (WBC) at critical states with hysteresis courses. The results of the simulation indicate that the WBC is prone to penetrating into the gap under northerly winds, and its path is more difficult to alter due to the larger interval between the two critical transition curves (C ₁ P and C ₁ L). For southerly winds, the WBC is prone to leaping across the gap, and its path is easier to alter due to the smaller interval between the two critical transition curves. The simulation results also indicate that the meridional winds over the southern region of the gap are the dominant factor determining the formation of the WBC. The dynamic mechanism influencing the transport of WBC near the gap is both Ekman transport and the blocking of Ekman transport. Ekman transport induced by northerly winds may reduce the transport of the WBC, causing the β-effect to dominate the meridional advection (promoting the penetration). Southerly winds, however, may enhance the transport of the WBC, causing the meridional advection to dominate the β-effect (promoting the leaping state). These results explain some structural features of the Kuroshio at the Luzon Strait.     

Seasonal variations of the near surfacelayer parameters over the Antarctic ice sheet in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica

Analysis of sensible heat flux(Qh),latent heat flux(Qe),Richardson number(Ri),bulk transport coefficient(Cd) and katabatic winds are presented by using the meteorological data in the near surface layer from an automatic weather station(AWS) in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica ice sheet and the data of corresponding period at Zhongshan station in 2002.It shows that annual mean air temperature at LGB69 is-25.6°C,which is 16.4°C lower than that at Zhongshan,where the elevation is lower and located on the coast.The temperature lapse rate is about 1.0°C/110 m for the initial from coast to inland.The turbulence heat flux at LGB69 displays obvious seasonal variations with the average sensible heat flux-17.9 W/m2 and latent heat flux-0.9 W/m2.The intensity(Qh Qe) of coolling source is-18.8 W/m2 meaning the snow surface layer obtains heat from atmosphere.The near surface atmosphere is near-neutral stratified with bulk transport coefficients(Cd) around 2.8×10-3,and it is near constant when the wind speed higher than 8 m/s.The speed and the frequency of easterly Katabatic winds at LGB69 were higher than that at Zhongshan Station.     

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .     

A physics-based dual-frequency approach for altimeter wind speed retrieval

The altimeter normalized radar cross section(NRCS) has been used to retrieve the sea surface wind speed for decades, and more than a dozen of wind speed retrieval algorithms have been proposed. Despite the continuing efforts to improve the wind speed measurements, a bias dependence on wave state persists in all wind algorithms. On the basis of recent evidence that short waves are essentially modulated by local winds and much less affected by wave state, we proposed a physics-based approach to retrieve the wind speed from the dual-frequency difference in terms of the mean square slope of short waves. A collocated dataset of coincident altimeter/buoy measurements were used to develop and validate the approach. Validation against buoy measurements indicates that the approach is almost unbiased and has an overall root mean square error of 1.24 m s-1, which is 5.3% lower than the single-parameter algorithm in operational use(Witter and Chelton, 1991) and 2.4% lower than another dual-frequency approach(Chen et al., 2002). Furthermore, the results indicate that the new approach significantly improves the wave-dependent bias compared to the single-parameter algorithm. The capacity of altimeter to retrieve sea surface wind speed appears to be limited for the case of winds below 3 m s-1. The validity of the approach at high winds needs to be further examined in the future study.     

Low-frequency variations in primary production in the Oman upwelling zone associated with monsoon winds

Thirteen-year satellite-derived data are used to investigate the temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) in the Oman upwelling zone and its potential forcing mechanisms. The NPP in the Oman upwelling zone is characterized by an abnormal decrease during El Ni o events. Such an NPP decrease may be related to El Ni o-driven anomalous summertime weak wind. During the summer following El Ni o, the anomalous northeasterly wind forced by southwest Indian Ocean warming weakens the southwest monsoon and warms the Arabian Sea. The abnormal wind weakens the coastal Ekman transport, offshore Ekman pumping and horizontal advection, resulting in reduced upward nutrient supply to the euphotic zone. A slightly declining trend in NPP after 2000 associated with a gradual decrease in surface monsoon winds is discussed.     

Projections of wind changes for 21st century in China by three regional climate models

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.     

Variabilities of surface current in the tropical Pacific Ocean

The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package is used to better understand the variabilities of surface current transport in the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 1950 to 1999. Seasonal variation, internnual and decadal variability analyses are conducted on the three major surface currents of the Tropical Pacific Ocean: the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the North Equatorial Countecurrent (NECC), and the South Equatorial Current (SEC). The transport of SEC is quite larger than those of NEC and NECC. The SEC has two maximums in February and August. The NEC has a small annual variation. The NECC has a maximum in October and is very weak in March and April. All currents have remarkable interannual and decadal variabilities. The variabilities of the NEC and the SEC related to the winds over them well, but the relationship between the NECC and the wind over it is not close. Analysis related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests that before El Niño (La Niña) the SEC is weaker (stronger) and the NECC is stronger (weaker), after El Niño (La Niña) the SEC is stronger (weaker) and the SEC is weaker (stronger). There is no notable relationship between the NEC and ENSO.     

Numerical simulation and dynamic study of the wintertime circulation of the Bohai Sea

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Analysis of ERS-2 scatterometer winds and wind-wave calculation for eastern China seas

The wind system over the China seas plays an important role in climate variation there. In this paper, ERS-2 scatterometer winds covering the period of 1998 and the area of 25-41°N, 117-130°E were analyzed and compared to NCEP winds and buoy winds in the same period and location, to assess how well the ERS-2 data reflect the real wind regime, at least for this area. The results indicated that ERS-2 scatterometer winds are closer to buoy observations than NCEP winds. In addition, a new wind-wave growth relation was applied to calculate wave parameters.