A coupled human–environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies

This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification.The human–environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms.The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability.The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900–2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification.     

Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century

Most areas of arid and semiarid China are covered by aeolian sand dunes, sand sheets, and desert steppes, and the existence of the nearly 80 million people who live in this region could be seriously jeopardized if climate change increases desertification. However, the expected trends in desertification during the 21st century are poorly understood. In the present study, we selected the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models (after comparing them with the results of the GFDL-R30, CGCM2, and CSIRO-Mk2b models) and used simulations of a dune mobility index under IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1FI, A2a, A2b, A2c, B1a, B2a, and B2b to estimate future trends in dune activity and desertification in China. Although uncertainties in climate predictions mean that there is still far to go before we can develop a comprehensive dune activity estimation system, HadCM3 simulations with most greenhouse forcing scenarios showed decreased desertification in most western region of arid and semiarid China by 2039, but increased desertification thereafter, whereas ECHAM4 simulation results showed that desertification will increase during this period. Inhabitants of thecentral region will benefit from reversed desertification from 2010 to 2099, whereas inhabitants of the eastern region will suffer from increased desertification from 2010 to 2099. From 2010 to 2039, most regions will not be significantly affected by desertification, but from 2040 to 2099, the environments of the western and eastern regions will deteriorate due to the significant effects of global warming (particularly the interaction between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), leading to decreased livestock and grain yields and possibly threatening China's food security.     

Agricultural impacts on ecosystem functioning in temperate areas of North and South America

Land use has a large impact on ecosystem functioning, though evidences of these impacts at the regional scale are scarce. The objective of this paper was to analyze the impacts of agricultural land use on ecosystem functioning (radiation interception and carbon uptake) in temperate areas of North and South America. From land cover maps generated using high-resolution satellite images we selected sites dominated by row crops (RC), small grain crops (SG), pastures (PA), and rangelands (RA) in the Central Plains of USA and the Pampas of Argentina. These two regions share climatic characteristics and the agricultural conditions (crop types) are also very similar. Both areas were originally dominated by temperate grasslands. In these sites we extracted the temporal series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the NOAA satellites for the period 1989–1998 and calculated the mean seasonal NDVI curve for each site. Additionally, we calculated the mean annual NDVI, the maximum NDVI, the date of the year when the max NDVI was recorded and the interannual variability of these three attributes. We compared the mean values of each NDVI-derived attribute between land cover types and between continents. The NDVI seasonal patterns for each land cover type were roughly similar between the Central Plains and the Pampas during the growing season. The largest differences were observed during the winter and spring, when the NDVI of all land cover types in the Central Plains remained at lower values than in the Pampas. This was probably caused by the high annual thermal amplitude in the Central Plains that results in a much more restricted growing season. As a result of these differences in the shape of the NDVI curve, the mean annual NDVI in the Central Plains was lower than in the Pampas for all land cover types but the maximum NDVI did not differ importantly. In both regions, row crops delayed the date of the NDVI peak, small grain crops advanced it and pastures did not change it importantly, compared with rangelands. The interannual variability of the NDVI attributes was higher for small grains than for row crops in both regions. However, small grains crops were consistently more variable between years in the Central Plains than in the Pampas. The opposite occurred with pastures and rangelands, which were more variable in the Pampas than in the Central Plains. This paper confirms and generalizes previous findings that showed important imprints of land use on ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. Our results support the idea that the changes in land cover that have occurred in the Central Plains and the Pampas leaded to similar changes in the way that ecosystems absorb solar radiation and in the patterns of carbon uptake.     

Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger

In the West African semiarid belt of the Sahel, for the second half of the XXth century, lasting droughts (1970s–1980s) and one of the World's highest population growths have resulted in major land cover and hydrological changes that can be quantified using aerial photographs. This paper aims to provide one of the longest combined observations of land cover and hydrological changes for semiarid areas using a time series of normalised mosaics of aerial photographs dating back from 1950, field inquiries, and updated groundwater data. The 500 km² study area in southwest Niger was chosen (i) for its rural environment representative of the rain-fed agriculture belt of the Sahel and (ii) to encompass the main hydrological study sites investigated in this region over the past two decades (Hapex-Sahel and AMMA experiments, 1990–2000s). Results have significant implications for future freshwater availability and food security in the Sahel.Between 1950 and 1992,  80% of the study area has been cleared, firstly to open new areas for agriculture and secondly for firewood supply (59% of the plateaux, 42% of the valley bottoms, and 87% of the hillslopes). Intermediate aerial photograph surveys (1960, 1975) attest an accelerated loss in the woody savannah that could not be recovered on the short term. A strong, indirect impact of land clearance is observed on the water resources. Land clearance has resulted in a modification of the soil properties and infiltration capacity and has led to an increase in Hortonian runoff collected in numerous gullies and ponds. Between 1950 and 1992, aerial photographs show a  2.5 fold increase of the drainage density with the development of large drainage systems and new ponds. Groundwater data also indicate a continuous rise in the water table, mostly noticeable since the 1980s with a mean groundwater level rise of  4 m for the 1963–2005 period (+ 15% in aquifer reserves). The relatively short  30 year time-lag between the onset of land clearance and the beginning of the water table rise is linked to the process of indirect groundwater recharge and is timed with the connectivity of the drainage network and the formation of new ponds. Finally, the sustained increase in surface runoff and groundwater recharge during the past four decades indicates that the indirect impact of land clearance on the terrestrial water balance has been stronger than that of the long-lasting Sahelian drought. As the rate of land clearance increased for the past century in semiarid Africa, its main hydrological effects may not yet be fully perceptible.     

Future desertification and climate change: The need for land-surface system evaluation improvement

In already drought-stressed areas and places with the potential for desertification as a result of greenhouse-induced change, high quality model-derived climate projections are essential for sustainable management. Today's challenge is how to select from the plethora of models and proposed new analyses the tools most likely to be valid for areas already water-stressed and those threatened by future surface moisture reduction. Here, the land-surface skills of models involved in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and new techniques of isotopic enrichment of components of evapotranspiration are analyzed. Both are found to have shortcomings. Surprisingly poor reporting of fundamental components of the land-surface system in standard model output was the largest challenge for widely accepted models. We show that very few of a large group (20) of today's climate models report land-surface water and energy budgets correctly in a well-controlled international experiment and that most fail basic conservation tests. Our analysis of a smaller (5) experiment suggests that isotopic techniques employed in arid zone irrigation management may not transition to evaluation and model improvement. Land-surface conditions important for policy are found to be poorly reported which raises questions about equal weighting given by international assessments to all models: good and bad.     

Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review

Formed by the freezing of sea water, sea ice defines the character of the marine Arctic. The principal purpose of this review is to synthesize the published efforts that document the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on remote climates. The emphasis is on atmospheric processes and the resulting modifications in surface conditions such as air temperature, precipitation patterns, and storm track behavior at interannual timescales across the middle and low latitudes of the Northern hemisphere during cool months. Addressed also are the theoretical, methodological, and logistical challenges facing the current observational and modeling studies that aim to improve our awareness of the role that Arctic sea ice plays in the definition of global climate. Moving towards an improved understanding of the role that polar sea ice plays in shaping the global climate is a subject of timely importance as the Arctic environment is currently undergoing rapid change with little slowing down forecasted for the future.     

Meltwater and the global ocean conveyor: northern versus southern connections

The sensitivity of the ocean circulation to changes in North Atlantic surface fluxes has become a major factor in explaining climate variability. The role of the Antarctic Bottom Water in modulating this variability has received much less attention, limiting the development of a complete understanding of decadal to millennial time-scale climate change. New analyses indicate that the southern deepwater source may change dramatically (e.g., experience a decrease of as much as two thirds during last 800 years). Such change can substantially alter the ocean circulation patterns of the last millennium. Additional analyses indicate that the Southern Hemisphere led the Northern Hemisphere changes in some of the glacial cycles of Pleistocene, implying a seesaw-type oscillation of the global ocean conveyor. The potential for melting of sea ice and ice sheets in the Antarctica associated with global warming can cause a further slowdown of the southern deepwater source. These results demand an assessment of the role of the Southern Ocean in driving changes of the global ocean circulation and climate. Systematic model simulation targeting the ocean circulation response to changes in surface salinity in the high latitudes of both Northern and Southern Hemispheres demonstrate that meltwater impacts in one hemisphere may lead to a strengthening of the thermohaline conveyor driven by the source in the opposite hemisphere. This, in turn, leads to significant changes in poleward heat transport. Further, meltwater events can lead to deep-sea warming and thermal expansion of abyssal water, that in turn cause a substantial sea-level change even without a major ice sheet melting.     

Variability in terrestrial carbon sinks over two decades: Part 2 — Eurasia

We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO₂ for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.     

A review of remote sensing methods for glacier mass balance determination

Airborne and satellite remote sensing is the only practical approach for deriving a wide area, regional assessment of glacier mass balance. A number of remote sensing approaches are possible for inferring the mass balance from some sort of proxy estimate. Here, we review the key methods relevant, in particular to Andean glaciers, discussing their strengths and weaknesses, and data sets that could be more fully exploited. We also consider future satellite missions that will provide advances in our observational capabilities. The methods discussed include observation of elevation changes, estimation of ice flux, repeat measurement of changes in spatial extent, snowline elevation and accumulation–ablation area ratio estimation. The methods are illustrated utilising a comprehensive review of results obtained from a number of studies of South American glaciers, focusing specifically on the Patagonian Icefields. In particular, we present some new results from Glaciar Chico, Southern Patagonian Icefield, Chile, where a variety of different satellite and in-situ data have been combined to estimate mass balance using a geodetic or elevation change approach over about a 25 yr period.     

A numerical study of the contributions of dust source regions to the global dust budget

Contributions of the nine potential dust source regions (North and South Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, eastern and western China, North and South America, and Australia) to the global dust budget are investigated with a global dust transport model. A six-year simulation (1990 to 1995) indicates that the greatest contributor to the global dust budget is found to be North Africa (the Sahara Desert), which accounts for 58% of the total global dust emission and 62% of the total global dust load in the atmosphere. Australian dust dominates the southern hemisphere. The dust emission and atmospheric dust load originating from East Asia (eastern and western China) are estimated to be 214 Tg yr^− 1 and 1.1 Tg, respectively, which are 11% and 6% of the total global dust emission and dust load. Dust from East Asia dominates the atmospheric load over China and Mongolia (about 70%), Korea (60%), Japan (50%), and the North Pacific Ocean (40%). The contribution of dust originating from regions other than East Asia to the dust load over these East Asian countries and the North Pacific Ocean cannot be ignored. The simulated total dust deposition flux on Greenland suggests a possible overestimation of the Saharan dust and an underestimation of the East Asian dust in the Arctic region, which may be a common problem with global dust transport models. Possible reasons for the underestimation of the East Asian dust are discussed.     

A review on East Asian dust storm climate, modelling and monitoring

In arid and semi-arid area of Asia, dust storms occur frequently. Asian dust storms have a major impact on the air quality of the densely populated areas of China, Korea and Japan, and are important to the global dust cycle. In extreme cases, they result in the loss of human lives and disruptions of social and economic activities. In recent years, systematic research on Asian dust storms has been carried out. Much progress has been made in the development of integrated dust storm monitoring and modeling systems by making use of advanced numerical models, satellite remote sensing and GIS data. In this paper, we summarize the recent achievements in Asian dust storm research with an emphasis on dust climatology, modeling and satellite monitoring. The concept of integrated dust storm monitoring and modeling system is described and a summary of the developments in key research areas is given, including new dust models and techniques in satellite remote sensing and system integration. We then discuss the current research frontiers and the challenges for future studies.     

An investigation of sand–dust storm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAA NDVI data

Observations from 560 weather stations in China show that sand–dust storms occur most frequently in April in north China. The region consists of Sub-dry Mid Temperate, Dry Mid Temperate, Sub-dry South Temperate and Dry South Temperate Zones and much of the land surface is desert or semi-desert: it is relatively dry with minimal rainfall and a high annual mean temperature. In most regions of China, the annual mean frequency of sand–dust events decreased sharply between 1980 and 1997 and then increased from 1997 to 2000. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the frequency of sand–dust storms correlates highly with wind speed, which in turn is strongly related to land surface features; on the other hand, a significant correlation between storm events and other atmospheric quantities such as precipitation and temperature was not observed. Accordingly, land surface cover characteristics (vegetation, snowfall and soil texture) may play a significant role in determining the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Empirical Orthogonal Function show that since 1995 surface vegetation cover in large areas of Northern China has significantly deteriorated. Moreover, a high correlation is shown to exist among the annual occurrence of sand–dust storms, surface vegetation cover and snowfall. This suggests that the deterioration of surface vegetation cover may strongly influence the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Soils with coarse and medium textures are found to be more associated with sand–dust storms than other soils.     

Thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars: A synthesis from HiRISE, Phoenix, and terrestrial analog studies

Thermal contraction crack polygons are complex landforms that have begun to be deciphered on Earth and Mars by the combined investigative efforts of geomorphology, environmental monitoring, physical models, paleoclimate reconstruction, and geochemistry. Thermal contraction crack polygons are excellent indicators of the current or past presence of ground ice, ranging in ice content from weakly cemented soils to debris-covered massive ice. Relative to larger topographic features, polygons may form rapidly, and reflect climate conditions at the time of formation—preserving climate information as relict landforms in the geological record. Polygon morphology and internal textural characteristics can be used to distinguish surfaces modified by the seasonal presence of a wet active layer or dry active layer, and to delimit subsurface ice conditions. Analysis of martian polygon morphology and distribution indicates that geologically-recent thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars form predominantly in an ice-rich latitude-dependent mantle, more likely composed of massive ice deposited by precipitation than by cyclical vapor diffusion into regolith. Regional and local heterogeneities in polygon morphology can be used to distinguish variations in ice content, deposition and modification history, and to assess microclimate variation on timescales of ka to Ma. Analyses of martian polygon morphology, guided by investigations of terrestrial analog thermal contraction crack polygons, strongly suggest the importance of excess ice in the formation and development of many martian thermal contraction crack polygons—implying the presence of an ice-rich substrate that was fractured during and subsequent to obliquity-driven depositional periods and continually modified by ongoing vapor equilibration processes.