Weak tidal correlation of NW-Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

We analyze the possible effect of solid Earth tidal stresses upon a vertical strike-slip fault in NW-Bohemia/Vogtland, central Europe, typical by occurrence of swarm earthquakes. The horizontal components of solid Earth tidal stresses were found strongly to prevail and to reach the level of 2 kPa. We examined tidal triggering as influence of tidal stresses to launching the swarm activity in relative absence of other stress disturbances. The onset times of 46 swarms of mostly M_L < 3 earthquakes that occurred in the period 1991–2005 displayed an increased occurrence near the fortnightly maximum of tidal extensive normal stress. The statistical test however did not prove a statistically significant correlation indicating a triggering effect of fault extension due to tidal loading. We also examined tidal effects to the already running seismic activity of the prominent 2000 swarm by comparing the tidal stress distribution in the investigated period with the distribution of tidal stresses in the occurrence times of each earthquake. The results show that these distributions are almost similar, which indicates that individual earthquakes occur independent of tidal stresses. The unclear tidal correlation of the swarm seismicity may be interpreted by small amplitudes and rates of tidal stress changes compared to the amplitudes and rates of coseismic stress perturbations and of pressure bursts of deep generated fluids.     

Is tidal forcing critical to trigger large Sumatra earthquakes?

Complexity in the earthquake mechanism is manifested in different forms such as fractal distribution, clustering of seismicity, etc., and characterized as critical phenomenon. Occurrences of earthquakes generally represent the state of metastable equilibrium. The Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone is one of the most seismically active corridors (possibly in metastable state) in the world. Recently, the region faced three major earthquakes of magnitude more than 8.5 (M ~ 9.1 on December 26, 2004; M ~ 8.6 on March 28, 2005; M ~ 8.6 on April 11, 2012). Researchers have suggested multiple causes of earthquake generation in this region including the one with possible correlation of tidal stresses with earthquake occurrences. The latter issue, however, has been hotly debated in view of the fact that a small stress generated due to tidal forcing cannot cause such a bigger magnitude earthquake. We study here the impact of tidal forcing on critically generated earthquake phenomena. We examined the statistical behavior of recurrence time interval of earthquakes using the available data for period of about 40 years from 1973 to 2013. We constrain the simple empirical toy model using the concept of catastrophe theory to evaluate the impact of small tidal forcing on the critical state of earthquakes occurrences. In addition to the major role of Helmholtz free energy during the plate motion, our analysis suggests that the stability and critical behavior of the earthquake in Sumatra region could be associated with tidal forcing, however, only for triggering of some of the “Catastrophic–Chaotic” earthquake phenomenon.     

Is tidal forcing critical to trigger large Sumatra earthquakes?

Complexity in the earthquake mechanism is manifested in different forms such as fractal distribution, clustering of seismicity, etc., and characterized as critical phenomenon. Occurrences of earthquakes generally represent the state of metastable equilibrium. The Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone is one of the most seismically active corridors (possibly in metastable state) in the world. Recently, the region faced three major earthquakes of magnitude more than 8.5 (M ~ 9.1 on December 26, 2004; M ~ 8.6 on March 28, 2005; M ~ 8.6 on April 11, 2012). Researchers have suggested multiple causes of earthquake generation in this region including the one with possible correlation of tidal stresses with earthquake occurrences. The latter issue, however, has been hotly debated in view of the fact that a small stress generated due to tidal forcing cannot cause such a bigger magnitude earthquake. We study here the impact of tidal forcing on critically generated earthquake phenomena. We examined the statistical behavior of recurrence time interval of earthquakes using the available data for period of about 40 years from 1973 to 2013. We constrain the simple empirical toy model using the concept of catastrophe theory to evaluate the impact of small tidal forcing on the critical state of earthquakes occurrences. In addition to the major role of Helmholtz free energy during the plate motion, our analysis suggests that the stability and critical behavior of the earthquake in Sumatra region could be associated with tidal forcing, however, only for triggering of some of the “Catastrophic–Chaotic” earthquake phenomenon.

     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

The present status of reservoir induced seismicity investigations with special emphasis on Koyna earthquakes

The status of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) has been reviewed periodically (Rothé, 1968, 1973; Gupta and Rastogi, 1976; Simpson, 1976; Packer et al., 1979). In the present paper, the significant work carried out during the last three years on RIS is reviewed.An earthquake of magnitude occurred on November 14, 1981 in the vicinity of Aswan Lake, Egypt, 17 years after the filling started in 1964. This event occurred 4 days after the seasonal maximum in the reservoir water level and was followed by a long sequence of aftershocks. Another event of magnitude occurred in the vicinity of Aswan Lake on August 20, 1982. Results of preliminary investigations indicate that this seismic activity is reservoir induced. Recent analyses of induced seismic events at Nurek Reservoir U.S.S.R., show that the second stage of filling during August to December 1976, increasing the maximum depth from 120 m to 200 m, was accompanied by an intense burst of shallow seismic activity. An outward migration from the centre of the reservoir, possibly associated with diffusion of pore pressure, is revealed by the temporal distribution of earthquake foci. A variety of investigations including the in situ measurement of tectonic stress, pore pressure, permeability, distribution of faults, etc., in addition to monitoring seismicity, have been undertaken in the vicinity of the Monticello Reservoir, South Carolina. The largest reservoir induced earthquake is predicted not to exceed magnitude 5.The Koyna Reservoir, India, continues to be the most outstanding example of RIS. Three earthquakes of magnitude 5 occurred in September 1980. Earthquakes of magnitude 4 occur frequently in the vicinity of Koyna, the latest being on February 5, 1983. Events that occurred during the period 1967–1973 have been relocated using better procedures and are found to be much shallower and the epicentres less diffused. Location of 12 earthquakes of M_s 4.0, their foreshocks and aftershocks, that occurred during 1973–1976, composite focal mechanism solutions and related studies are consistent with the delineation of a N-S trending fault through the reservoir area. In a couple of interesting studies it has been demonstrated that earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 in the Koyna region are usually preceded by several magnitude 4 earthquakes in the preceding fortnight. Also, a rate of loading of Koyna reservoir of at least 40 ft/week appears to be a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the occurrence of magnitude 5 earthquakes. Smooth filling/emptying appears to be the key to reduce the hazard of RIS.A map and a table of the reported cases of reservoir induced changes in seismicity through 1982 have been compiled.     

Focal mechanism dependence of static stress triggering of earthquakes

We perform a global statistical investigation into the problem of Coulomb stress triggering of earthquakes by using the Harvard CMT catalogue of shallow earthquakes from 1976 to 2001. We consider ‘earthquake pairs’, i.e., pairs of successive earthquakes occurring near each other with similar focal mechanisms, and address the problem of whether or not the change of the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) produced by the first earthquake of the pair ‘encourages’ the occurrence of the second one. An interesting feature is that such a Coulomb stress-triggering phenomenon has an apparent focal mechanism dependence: for thrust earthquakes, a more evident triggering effect can be observed.     

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, Japan

We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.     

Seismic triggering effect of tidal stress

The tidal stress field of a layered, spherically symmetric earth due to the sun and moon is used to investigate its relationship to the occurrence of earthquakes. For 70 severe earthquakes which occurred in or near China during the last 24 years, we computed the tidal stress in spherical polar coordinates at the focus at the time of occurrence. The normal and tangential stress components along the slip direction on the earthquake fault plane were then found by a coordinate transformation. Coulomb's criterion of shear fracture is used to determine whether these stress components will trigger the earthquakes or not. The results show that of the 70 earthquakes, 43 have been subjected to a triggering effect and for the 18 events that occurred in North China, 14 have been triggered. It may be concluded that for shallow strike-slip earthquakes there is a significant triggering effect, while for oblique-slip and dip-slip earthquakes the tidal stress has only a small triggering effect. From 72 events which occurred in other parts of the world similar conclusions are obtained. Finally, for the purpose of predicting earthquakes the time interval during which the tidal stress may trigger an earthquake on faults in North China is investigated.     

Effects of tidal shallowing and deepening on phytoplankton production dynamics: A modeling study

Processes influencing estuarine phytoplankton growth occur over a range of time scales, but many conceptual and numerical models of estuarine phytoplankton production dynamics neglect mechanisms occurring on the shorter (e.g., intratidal) time scales. We used a numerical model to explore the influence of short time-scale variability in phytoplankton sources and sinks on long-term growth in an idealized water column that shallows and deepens with the semidiurnal tide. Model results show that tidal fluctuations in water surface elevation can determine whether long-term phytoplankton growth is positive or negative. Hourly-scale interactions influencing weekly-scale to monthly-scale phytoplankton dynamics include intensification of the depth-averaged benthic grazing effect by water column shallowing and enhancement of water column photosynthesis when solar noon coincides with low tide. Photosynthesis and benthic consumption may modulate over biweekly time scales due to spring-neap fluctuations in tidal range and the 15-d cycle of solar noon-low tide phasing. If tidal range is a large fraction of mean water depth, then tidal shallowing and deepening may significantly influence net phytoplankton growth. In such a case, models or estimates of long-term phytoplankton production dynamics that neglect water surface fluctuations may overestimate or underestimate net growth and could even predict the wrong sign associated with net growth rate.     

Intraplate earthquakes in Northern Svalbard

A temporary network of microearthquake seismographs deployed in the northern part of Svalbard recorded numerous earthquakes during the summer of 1982. Most of the earthquakes occurred in concentrated zones in restricted portions of three fault complexes in central Nordaustlandet, but minor activity also occurred to the east and west of these complexes. Within the uncertainty of the epicentral locations, most earthquakes which occurred on land in regions not covered by glaciers could be associated with segments of mapped faults. There are numerous fault segments and even entire faults, however, along which no recorded earthquake occurred. The concentrated spatial locations of these earthquakes along preferred portions of mapped faults, and the absence of throughgoing lines of activity, suggest that these are intraplate earthquakes occurring along existing faults in response to an applied stress field. Composite fault-plane solutions for the three most active regions each include one nodal-plane which can be associated, at least roughly, with a trend of seismicity and trend of a mapped fault. The directions of greatest principle stress for the three fault plane solutions vary between N90°W and N55°W, directions which agree approximately with maximum stress directions determined for a region about 200 km to the south. The consistency of the directions of maximum principle stress obtained for earthquakes throughout a broad region of Svalbard suggests that the earthquakes there occur in response to a stress field which is of plate tectonic origin.     

On tidal-strain variations before earthquakes

Theoretical evaluations and experimental data testify that the tidal-strain amplitudes in the fault zone can exceed their normal values on the earth by hundreds of percent.The strain magnitude near the fault depends on the integral elastic parameters of the fault. These parameters can change with the change of tectonic stresses.It is supposed that before earthquakes the changes of tidal amplitudes occur in the fault zone near the source. This supposition is checked by the analysis of tidal waves in the zone of the Kondarinsky fault (Tadjik SSR), recorded by extensometers before and after the earthquake of 3. X. 1967, withM = 4.5 and epicentral distance 20 km.     

Modelling of cyclic tidal rhythmites (Carboniferous of Indiana and Kansas, Precambrian of Utah, USA) as a basis for reconstruction of intertidal positioning and palaeotidal regimes

Analyses are presented for a variety of ancient cyclic tidal rhythmites, which exhibit well developed neap-spring tidal periods. Many such rhythmites were formed within the upper intertidal zone and exhibit truncated cycles that contain relatively few discrete lamina per neap-spring cycle. In such cases it can be difficult to determine if the originated palaeotidal system was diurnal or semidiurnal. Based on sedimentological controls observed in modern analogues, the development of cyclic tidal rhythmites can be modelled by use of predicted tidal-height information. The modelling used a 19-year-long series of tidal heights, which were subsequently used to approximate tidal velocities and rhythmite sedimentation. Modelling was based on a range of diurnal to semidiurnal regimes and comparisons were performed at a number of levels within the intertidal zone. This modelling produced a long series of simulated laminae-thickness series which could be cross-correlated with ancient laminae-thickness series measured directly from ancient rhythmites. This approach involved 1.6 × 10⁶ comparisons of each ancient rhythmite series to the series simulated from the predictive tidal-height information. The high correlations derived for such comparisons indicate that reasonable approximations to the palaeotidal systems can be made. In some cases, it is possible to determine the diurnal or semidiurnal nature of the originating palaeotidal system.     

Mechanism of the reservoir impounding earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang and a preliminary endeavour to discuss their cause

After the filling up of the Hsinfengkiang Reservoir Kwangtung Province, seismicity was greatly increased. The majority of earthquakes occurred in the deep water gorge close to the dam, concentrated within a northwest belt. They are usually of shallow focal depths. A strong earthquake with magnitude 6.1 took place on March 19, 1962, about two and a half years since the impounding of the reservoir.

According to the results of analysis of data from geodetic leveling and the spectra of seismic waves, the fault parameters of the main shock were determined. The fault plane solutions of 150 small earthquakes, occurring within a period of 18 months before and after the main shock were determined from the amplitudes of the first motion of P wave. The directions of the earthquake generating stress of about 2000 small earthquakes were obtained by smoothing the first motion patterns. Displacement field and stress field in the rock bodies underneath the reservoir caused by the loading of the reservoir water were calculated. Variations of the velocity ratio of the P and S waves prior to the main shock and several strong aftershocks were analysed.

In consideration of the seismicity as well as the geological background, we endeavour to discuss the cause of reservoir impounding earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang. We have the opinion that the penetration of water along fissures becomes the most important cause of the main shock of March 19, 1962 at Hsinfengkiang.     

中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究

从活动地块假说出发 ,在活动地块研究的基础上 ,探讨了中国大陆及邻区活动地块与强震活动的关系。研究指出 ,主要构造变形和强烈地震大都发生在活动地块边界。在占总面积 17%的活动地块边界上 ,集中了全部的 8级以上巨大地震和 86 %的 7级以上大地震 ,其释放能量占全部总能量的 95 %以上 ,表明中国大陆及其邻区活动地块边界带控制了绝大部分的强地震。从活动地块的整体来看 ,强震活动不仅显示出显著的韵律性特征 ,而且其高、低起伏基本上与中国大陆地区一致 ,只是强震活跃时段有时稍长于中国大陆。各轮回强震活动都有各自活动的主体地区 ,反映了不同活跃期内地块的不同活动方式。文中还从现今地壳运动角度 ,讨论了活动地块运动速率与强地震活动水平之间的可能联系。     

A description of the tides and effect of Qeshm canal on that in the Persian Gulf using two-dimensional numerical model

The main semidiurnal (M2 and S2) and diurnal (K1 and O1) tidal constituents are simulated in the Persian Gulf (PG). The topography is discretized on a spherical grid with a resolution of 30 s in both latitude and longitude. It includes coastal areas prone to flooding. The model permits flooding of drying banks up to 5 m above mean sea level. At the open boundary, it is forced by 13 harmonic constituents extracted from a global tidal model. The model results are in good agreement with tide gauge observations. Co-tidal charts and flow extremes are presented for each tidal constituent. The co-tidal charts show two amphidromic points for semidiurnal and one for diurnal tidal constituents. Maximum amplitudes of sea level are obtained for the north-western part of the PG, where coastal flooding prevails in wide areas. Strong tidal currents occur in different parts of the PG for different types of constituents. Maximum velocities are found in shallow regions. Particularly, high amplitudes of elevations and high speed currents are founded in the canal between Qeshm Island and the mainland. Rectification of tides around Qeshm Island affects the propagation of tides in the PG as far as the coast of Saudi Arabia and the northern part of the PG.     

Reinterpretation of the exposed record of the last two cycles of Lake Bonneville, Western United States

A substantially modified history of the last two cycles of Lake Bonneville is proposed. The Bonneville lake cycle began prior to 26,000 yr B.P.; the lake reached the Bonneville shoreline about 16,000 yr B.P. Poor dating control limits our knowledge of the timing of subsequent events. Lake level was maintained at the Bonneville shoreline until about 15,000 yr B.P., or somewhat later, when catastrophic downcutting of the outlet caused a rapid drop of 100 m. The Provo shoreline was formed as rates of isostatic uplift due to this unloading slowed. By 13,000 yr B.P., the lake had fallen below the Provo level and reached one close to that of Great Salt Lake by 11,000 yr B.P. Deposits of the Little Valley lake cycle are identified by their position below a marked unconformity and by amino acid ratios of their fossil gastropods. The maximum level of the Little Valley lake was well below the Bonneville shoreline. Based on degree of soil development and other evidence, the Little Valley lake cycle may be equivalent in age to marine oxygenisotope stage 6. The proposed lake history has climatic implications for the region. First, because the fluctuations of Lake Bonneville and Lake Lahontan during the last cycle of each were apparently out of phase, there may have been significant local differences in the timing and character of late Pleistocene climate changes in the Great Basin. Second, although the Bonneville and Little Valley lake cycles were broadly synchronous with maximum episodes of glaciation, environmental conditions necessary to generate large lakes did not exist during early Wisconsin time.     

Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity

Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features.     

Extension at the coast of the Makran subduction zone (Iran)

In the Makran subduction zone, earthquake focal mechanisms and geodetic data indicate that the deforming prism currently experiences N–S compression. However, palaeostress inversions performed on normal faults observed along the coast reveal local stress components consistent with N‐S extension. Previously proposed mechanisms such as gravitational collapse are not favoured by N–S compression and surface uplift. We propose that the observed kinematics result from transient stress reversals following large earthquakes. During the interseismic period (now), the region experiences N–S compression. However, following a large reverse rupture on the subduction interface, stresses in the inner wedge relax, enabling a brief period of extensional faulting before a compressive stress state is re‐established. This mechanism, also observed in other subduction zones, requires low overall stresses in the upper plate and that the margin ruptures in large megathrust earthquakes that result in nearly complete stress drops.     

Earthquake Hazard in Italy, 2001–2030

The study computes time-dependant earthquake probabilities on the basis of seismicity data mainly deriving from historic records. It provides a methodological approach useful for those countries where the scarcity of instrumental data and/or paleoseismological evidences requires that historical information shall be stressed. Thus, the conditional probability that damaging earthquakes (M ≥ 6) may occur in Italy in the next 30 years is shown, and the potential for the main worldwide known Italian cities with a cultural heritage is outlined. Earthquake probabilities are computed referring to the application of renewal processes, where the periodicity is analytically modelled by means of the Brownian Passage Time function; an estimate of the dispersion (i.e., uncertainty) introduced on probabilities is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulations. The computed probabilities refer to seismic source zones deriving from the spatial clustering of the historically documented seismicity. The computation of probabilities based on the interaction of earthquakes occurring in nearby zones, has been also attempted for a test area to explore the influence exerted by the stress transfer effect. The main findings of this study are that (1) seismic source zones in Southern Italy are the most prone to experience damaging earthquakes in the next 30-years, with conditional probabilities a large as 10%; and (2) the influence exerted by the earthquake interaction in increasing such probabilities, doesn’t seem to be relevant, because the mean recurrence times of large earthquakes (above the threshold magnitude of six chosen in this study) are in general much longer than the time shortening produced by the stress transfer.     

Andean earthquakes triggered by the 2010 Maule,Chile (Mw 8.8) earthquake: Comparisons of geodetic,seismic and geologic constraints

The Maule, Chile, (M_w 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the M_w 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), M_w 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), M_w 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior.