春季滇南大风冰雹天气的大尺度环境特征

从环流场、湿度锋区、高低空急流以及动能涡散场等几个方面分析了１９９７年春季云南南部多风雹天气的环境场条件,对南支槽、低层湿度梯度的变化、风场急流和垂直运动、以及涡散场动能的转换等与风雹天气的关系有了更深入的认识,一些分析结论可供预报参考。     

西南涡对西昌发射场降雨天气影响的分析与预报

通过对2007～2010年5～10月132例西南涡天气个例的分析,总结了影响西昌发射场的西南涡的形成、移动及降水天气特点,从风场、湿度场、温度场等方面归纳了西南涡的特点,提出了各种类型西南涡的预报着眼点;利用逐步判别方法,建立了西南涡大降水的预报方程并进行了试报,效果良好。     

云南一次持续性风雹过程中低空急流的若干特征

本文分析了１９９７年３月１５～１９日滇南一次持续性风雹天气过程中低空急流的动力、热力特征及其与昆明准静止锋的关系。结果表明,大风冰雹出现在急流轴左侧具有较强正涡度及风场气旋式切变的区域内,当低空急流区伴随强的辐合上升运动且低层有冷气活动时,有利于风雹天气的发生,风雹地区具有较强的斜压不稳定层结。     

一次罕见冰雹天气过程的对流参数分析

2005年6月14夜到15日凌晨受中尺度对流系统(MCS)影响,安徽东部出现罕见的冰雹天气过程。本文利用地面观测资料、高空天气图、卫星云图和雷达等资料,分析了环流形势和天气影响系统,计算了相关的强对流天气参数并对能量参数进行了详细分析,试图揭示本次过程的天气系统特征和对流参数物理特征。结果表明:此次大范围风雹强对流天气系统是在东北低涡下,高空前倾槽与地面辐合线有利的大环流背景下,一个MCS影响所致;KI、SI指数对于预示本次强风雹过程存在着一定的局限性;CAPE、NCAPE、SSI和SHR等参数较好地反映出强风雹天气过程的出现。     

陇东异常偏早暴雨个例分析

对2003年4月1日陇东庆城县暴雨过程的环流背景、动力、热力和水汽等条件诊断分析,旨在探讨陇东春季异常偏早暴雨的短期天气分析预报思路。结果表明：异常偏早暴雨过程前48h和24h,增温明显,地面的湿静力能量跃增,后期冷空气较强,中低层对流性不稳定层结显著,深厚的正涡度、低层的低涡辐合和高空的强辐散场发展是仲春季节产生异常偏早暴雨的主要影响因子。     

哈尔滨太平国际机场初雷天气分析

本文基于MICAPS天气实况资料,通过高低空环流场、K指数和垂直温度层结以及气象要素等方面研究了哈尔滨太平国际机场一次罕见的伴有扬沙和雨夹雪的初雷天气过程,得出以下结论：此次天气过程主要受蒙古气旋东移影响,哈尔滨机场受低涡前暖平流控制,有利于水汽的输送,后期随着冷空气的南下,地面转为冷锋影响,锋前后有强烈冷暖平流,且温度梯度较大,850hPa风向风速辐合条件较好,有较好的辐合抬升条件。较为强烈的低层低涡辐合系统是本次对流性天气的动力条件,低涡前后西南风和西北风引起的冷暖空气交汇是本次对流性天气的热力条件。风向风速、温度等气象要素在此次天气过程中存在明显变化。     

一次强季风槽—ITCZ过程分析

本文根据FGGE3B资料得到的基本物理量场如u—v分量、温度、湿度、散度、涡度、垂直运动等,对南亚一次强季风槽—ITCZ发展与维持作了较详细的分析,并就高空东风急流对扰动形成的影响以及两个季风体系中天气系统的相互作用作了讨论。      

“80.7”山东强对流天气分析

冰雹是各种不同尺度系统相结合而产生的一种强对流过程。本文采用天气学和动力学方法,研究了1980年7月6日山东出现的大范围强对流天气过程中,大尺度和中尺度系统的演变特征及其相互联系。运用动力分析的结果分析了这次强对流机制。讨论了冰雹、暴雨形成过程中潜热释放、动量、热量垂直输送对大尺度场垂直运动的反馈。借助本省每小时天气实况演变图和雷达回波照片对这次过程进行了中分析,发现地面辐散场和涡度场的演变和冰雹落区有很好的对应关系。     

高原低涡与西南涡结伴而行的不同活动形式个例的环境场和位涡分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR-FNL再分析资料、历史天气图、青藏高原低涡切变线年鉴,通过分析1998~2015年持续高原涡影响西南涡结伴而行（简称两涡伴行）过程的活动形式,并对不同活动形式的个例进行了环境场与位涡分析,得出了不同活动形式两涡伴行的环境场特征,揭示了冷空气活动、200 hPa急流对不同活动形式的两涡伴行的影响原因。结果表明:（1）两涡伴行有三种活动形式,它们是高原涡诱发西南涡、高原涡与西南涡耦合以及同一天气系统下两涡,其中以高原涡诱发西南涡的活动形式占多数。（2）两涡伴行的500 hPa环境场主要是40°N以北东亚环流经向度不强,纬向气流主导,受500 hPa低槽、冷空气活动的影响;200 hPa环境场主要与200 hPa急流的强度、距急流核距离、在急流两侧的位置密切相关;不同活动形式的西南涡上空200 hPa、500 hPa环境场特征是有差别的。（3）受500 hPa低槽、冷空气影响的两涡伴行中的西南涡的生成是通过500 hPa高位涡空气伸入西南涡上空,造成西南涡上空斜压不稳定所至;在西南涡上空500 hPa斜压不稳定增强且具有较强的斜压不稳定时西南涡加强;200 hPa西南风急流影响高原涡诱发或耦合、加强西南涡是分别在高空高位涡下传影响到高原涡与西南涡上空、西南涡的情况下实现的,同一天气系统下,高空高位涡下传只影响高原涡,而未影响西南涡。     

广东省2018年5月极端高温天气的特征及成因分析

利用1953-2018年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和广东省逐日气象要素数据,分析了广东省2018年5月罕见大范围、持续长时间的极端高温天气过程时空分布特征和成因。结果表明:该次过程主要发生在5月中旬中期至月底,梅州高温日数长达15 d。全省高温空间分布呈自东向西逐渐递减的趋势,沿海地区温度较内陆偏低,虽高温日数明显偏少,但大部分地区极端最高气温和高温日数均破历史纪录;南亚高压和副高长时间控制广东地区,以及对流层低层弱的西南风场和辐散场,使得下沉气流增温作用显著,形成了有利于高温炎热天气的大气环流背景场;少云、弱风速和低湿度,以及充足的日照,有利于辐射增温,易出现高温炎热天气。     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题

自地球形成至寒武纪将近40亿年（距今46亿～5.4亿年,通常称为前寒武纪）的气候演变是一个具有特殊难度和挑战性的研究领域,同时也是基础和前沿的研究领域。文章选择了前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题进行综述：大气演化、两次全球性的冰川期以及暗弱太阳问题。关于大气演化,本文首先描述了大气成分的演化历史,然后简述了影响大气成分演化的三个基本过程：大气逃逸、两次大气氧含量突然增加、碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环及其对气候系统的负反馈作用。两次全球性的冰川期分别发生在古元古代（距今24亿～21亿年）和新元古代（距今8亿～5.8亿年）,文章简述了其成因以及相关的气候模拟结果。暗弱太阳问题是地球历史气候演化的一个经典问题,论文简要地综述了一些最新的研究成果和观点。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

The impact of AIRS atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on hurricane forecasts: Ike (2008) and Irene (2011)

Atmospheric Infra Red Sounder(AIRS) measurements are a valuable supplement to current observational data, especially over the oceans where conventional data are sparse. In this study, two types of AIRS-retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, the AIRS Science Team product(Sci Sup) and the single field-of-view(SFOV) research product, were evaluated with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) analysis data over the Atlantic Ocean during Hurricane Ike(2008) and Hurricane Irene(2011). The evaluation results showed that both types of AIRS profiles agreed well with the ECMWF analysis, especially between 200 h Pa and 700 h Pa. The average standard deviation of both temperature profiles was approximately 1 K under 200 h Pa, where the mean AIRS temperature profile from the AIRS Sci Sup retrievals was slightly colder than that from the AIRS SFOV retrievals. The mean Sci Sup moisture profile was slightly drier than that from the SFOV in the mid troposphere. A series of data assimilation and forecast experiments was then conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system for hurricanes Ike and Irene. The results showed an improvement in the hurricane track due to the assimilation of AIRS clear-sky temperature profiles in the hurricane environment. In terms of total precipitable water and rainfall forecasts, the hurricane moisture environment was found to be affected by the AIRS sounding assimilation.Meanwhile, improving hurricane intensity forecasts through assimilating AIRS profiles remains a challenge for further study.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.