Interannual variability of winter precipitation over northwest India and adjoining region: impact of global forcings

The role of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mechanism through which ENSO influences the precipitation variability over northwest India and the adjoining (NWIA) region is well documented. In this study, the relative role of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO in modulating the Asian jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere winter and their relative impact on the precipitation variability over the region have been estimated through analysis of observed data. It is seen that interannual variations of NWIA precipitation are largely influenced by ENSO. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis has been carried out to understand dominant modes of interannual variability of zonal wind at 200 hPa of the Northern Hemisphere. The EOF-1 pattern in the tropical region is similar to that of an ENSO pattern, and the principal component (PC) time series corresponds to the ENSO time series. The EOF-2 spatial pattern resembles that of NAO/AO with correlation of PC time series with AO and NAO being 0.74 and 0.62, respectively. The precipitation anomaly time series over the region of interest has marginally higher correlation with the PC-2 time series as compared to that of PC-1. Regression analysis of precipitation and circulation parameters indicates a larger contribution of the second mode to variability of winds and precipitation over the NWIA. Moisture transport from the Arabian Sea during the active phase of NAO/AO and the presence of a cyclonic anomaly lead to higher precipitation over the NWIA region.     

An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

Development of downscaling models for each calendar month using the data of predictors specifically selected for each calendar month may assists in better capturing the time-varying nature of the predictor-predictand relationships. Such approach will not allow the explicit modelling of the persistence of the predictand (e.g. lag-1 correlation). However, downscaling at an annual time step and subsequent disaggregation to monthly values can explicitly consider the modelling of the persistence of the predictand. This study investigated the potential of annual downscaling of a predictand and subsequent disaggregation of annual values to monthly values, in comparison to the potential of downscaling models separately developed for each calendar month. In the case study, annual and monthly downscaling models were developed for precipitation and evaporation at two stations located in Victoria, Australia. The output of the annual downscaling models was then disaggregated into monthly values using four different methods based on the method of fragments. It was found that the annual to monthly disaggregation methods and monthly downscaling models are able to reproduce the average of monthly observations with relatively higher accuracy in comparison to their ability in reproducing standard deviation, skewness and lag-1 serial correlation. Downscaling models separately developed for each calendar month were able to show relatively smaller root mean square errors for their time series indicating better overall agreement with observations in comparison to their counterpart annual to monthly disaggregation methods. Furthermore, it was found that not only the bias in the output of an annual downscaling model but also the presence of annual totals in the records of observations of a predictand that are very similar in magnitude, but having significantly different sets of fragments, can largely contribute to the poor performance of an annual to monthly disaggregation method.     

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic...     

高原地区NCEP热通量再分析资料的检验及在夏季降水预测中的应用

青藏高原对周边地区的天气气候有重要影响,为了寻求表征高原热力作用的新的、长时间序列的资料源,本文首先用高原地区NCEP1982～1994年间逐月月平均2.5.× 2.5.Lat./Lon.的地面热通量再分析格点资料对照实测值等进行了检验,然后用EOF分析方法分析了高原地面热源强度的空间分布特征,最后利用再分析资料和降水量实测资料,初步分析了高原地面热源强度对我国夏季降水的影响.主要结果如下:(1)高原地区的地面热通量再分析资料能较好地反映该区热源强度的年及年际变化特征,该再分析资料是可用的;(2)高原地区地面热源强度的分布存在较大的区域性差异;(3)高原西北、东北及西南区早春(2～4月)、夏季(6～8月)的地面热源强度分别与南疆、河西及长江流域的夏季降水存在反相关关系.     

Holocene climatic changes over northwest India: An appraisal

Multidisciplinary studies of the climatic conditions of the present-day arid regions of the northwest Indian region indicate phases of distinct change during the recent post-glacial period. In view of the topical importance of the subject, and the sources of information being scattered throughout multidiscipli-nary research journals, an attempt has been made to summarize and present a coherent picture of the climate of the present-day desert regions of northwest India for the Holocene period. The present-day climatology and physiography of the region is presented as introductory material. The important studies which throw some light on the glacial arid phase, the wet phase, coinciding with the Harappan civilization, and the present-day arid phase are reviewed.     

Structural variation of an atmospheric heat source over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its influence on precipitation in northwest China

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-year precipitation dataset are utilized to analyze the relationship between an atmospheric heat source (hereafter called < Q₁ >) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding area and precipitation in northwest China. Our main conclusions are as follows: (1) The horizontal distribution of < Q₁ > and its changing trend are dramatic over QXP in the summer. There are three strong centers of < Q₁ > over the south side of QXP with obvious differences in the amount of yearly precipitation and the number of heat sinks predominate in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China (NWC), beside the northern QXP with an obvious higher intensity in years with less precipitation. (2) In the summer, the variation of the heat source's vertical structure is obviously different between greater and lesser precipitation years in eastern northwest China (ENWC). The narrow heat sink belt forms between the northeast QXP and the southwestern part of Lake Baikal. In July and August of greater precipitation years, the heating center of the eastern QXP stays nearly over 35^oN, and at 400 hPa of the eastern QXP, the strong upward motion of the heating center constructs a closed secondary vertical circulation cell over the northeast QXP (40^o--46^oN), which is propitious to add precipitation over the ENWC. Otherwise, the heating center shifts to the south of 30^oN and disappears in July and August of lesser precipitation years, an opposite secondary circulation cell forms over the northeast QXP, which is a disadvantage for precipitation. Meanwhile, the secondary circulation cell in years with more or less precipitation over the ENWC is also related to the heat source over the Lake Baikal. (3) The vertical structure of the heat source over the western QXP has obvious differences between greater and lesser precipitation years in western northwest China in June and July. The strong/weak heat source over the western QXP produces relatively strong/weak ascending motion and correspondingly constructs a secondary circulation cell in lesser/greater precipitation years.     

Role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures in modulating northwest Indian winter precipitation variability

Summary The interannual variability of North-West India Winter Precipitation (NWIWP) has been examined in association with the variability of sea surface temperature (SST), surface air temperature (SAT) and upper tropospheric (200 hPa) wind patterns over India and the surrounding regions. We have considered data for a period of 54 years (1950–2003). During the years of excess NWIWP, the SST was above normal over the equatorial Indian Ocean, SAT was below normal over east Mediterranean Sea and over the Himalayan region and upper tropospheric westerlies strengthen and shift southwards. Upper tropospheric westerlies over north and central India was found to be related with the SST anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The decrease of SAT over north India and surroundings may largely be a manifestation of cooling brought about by excessive precipitation and sweep of cold air advection in rear of the storms. The intensifying of upper troposphere westerlies embedded with a jet increases the upper level divergence over north India due to increased horizontal shear resulting in intense anticyclone at upper troposphere.     

Spatial variations in the diurnal patterns of winter precipitation in India

The present study focuses on spatial patterns of diurnal variability in winter precipitation across the Indian subcontinent. Hourly precipitation data during the months of January and February from 1980 to 2002 were procured for 80 stations spread across the subcontinent. The methodology consisted of calculation of the first harmonics by harmonic analysis for three variables that included frequency, total amount, and intensity of precipitation events. There were substantial variations in the strength of the diurnal cycle prevailing over the subcontinent, with most of the peninsular region and eastern part of the northern Gangetic Plain showing relatively stronger diurnal cycles. The variance explained by the first harmonic was significant at the 90% confidence level for larger parts of the peninsular region and northern plains. The weakest patterns were observed in the interior of the continent over central India. The times of maximum for hourly frequency, total amount, and intensity of precipitation were predominantly during the latter half of the 24–hour period, during late evening hours to just before sunrise hours. This was due to the enhanced warm front lifting during the late night to early morning hours as a result of nighttime inversions in the warm sector. Further, along the foothills of the Himalayas, the times of maximum were observed during predawn hours just before sunrise, caused by the downslope movement of katabatic winds and their convergence with the cyclonic storms in the low-lying areas, leading to enhanced precipitation. Along the west coast, the times of maxima were also concentrated in the midnight to early-morning hours due to the convergence of inland moving seas breeze fronts with the northeast trades.     

Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9–726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966–2005.

     

新疆夏季降水和冬季气温预测方法及效果评估

本文利用4个国内外先进的气候模式（国家气候中心、ECMWF、NCEP和JMA）业务预测数据,采用2种多模式集合方法（等权平均和超级集合）、3种降尺度方法（BP-CCA、EOF迭代、高相关回归集成）和3种统计方法（CCA、最优气候值、高相关回归集成）以及降尺度集成和降尺度-统计方法集成,分析了目前季节模式、多模式集合、降尺度、统计方法、降尺度-统计集合等目前常用气候预测技术对新疆夏季降水和冬季气温的业务预测能力。 研究表明,以上技术方法对新疆夏季降水和冬季气温的预测预测能力有较大差别。目前先进的气候业务模式的预测技巧普遍很低,多模式超级集合和降尺度方法的技巧常高于单个模式,并且最佳的降尺度方法通常技巧高于最佳多模式集合方法。同时,统计方法和降尺度方法的预测技巧通常较为接近,而对二者进行超级集合可以具有相对很高的预测技巧。此外,现有常用气候预测技术方法对新疆夏季降水和冬季气温的趋势有一定的预测能力,但对气候异常的空间分布基本无预测能力。建议新疆气候预测技术围绕统计和降尺度方法集合发展。     

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS’s hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50°E–110°E and 10°S–35°N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR; only the land stations of India during JJAS), the predicted mean AISMR with March, April and May initial conditions is found to be well correlated with actual AISMR and is found to provide skillful prediction. Thus, the calibrated CFS forecast could be used as a better tool for the real time prediction of AISMR.     

Eddy-correlation measurements of sensible heat fluxes over a grass surface

Direct measurements of sensible heat fluxes were conducted over a grass surface at Ladner, British Columbia, using yaw-sphere-thermometer eddy-correlation systems. The results show that for half-hour averaging periods, there is no phase-lag between sensible heat and net radiation flux densities. Field comparison of two yaw-sphere-thermometer systems gave good and consistent agreement. At a height of 2 m above ground and a horizontal crosswind separation of 1.5 m, less than 5% variability was noted in the measured heat fluxes. For a 19-m horizontal separation, the variability was less than 20%. The aridity index (α) advanced by Priestley and Taylor (1972), is shown to be a potentially useful climatic indicator.     

The atmospheric energy budget and implications for surface fluxes and ocean heat transports

Comprehensive diagnostic comparisons and evaluations have been carried out with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses of the vertically integrated atmospheric energy budgets. For 1979 to 1993 the focus is on the monthly means of the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports. For February 1985 to April 1989, when there are reliable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiation data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), the implied monthly mean surface fluxes are derived and compared with those from the assimilating models and from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), both locally and zonally integrated, to deduce the implied ocean meridional heat transports. While broadscale aspects and some details of both the divergence of atmospheric energy and the surface flux climatological means are reproducible, especially in the zonal means, differences are also readily apparent. Systematic differences are typically ∼20 W m⁻². The evaluation highlights the poor results over land. Land imbalances indicate local errors in the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports for monthly means on scales of 500 km (T31) of 30 W m⁻² in both reanalyses and ∼50 W m⁻² in areas of high topography and over Antarctica for NCEP/NCAR. Over the oceans in the extratropics, the monthly mean anomaly time series of the vertically integrated total energy divergence from the two reanalyses correspond reasonably well, with correlations exceeding 0.7. A common monthly mean climate signal of about 40 W m⁻² is inferred along with local errors of 25 to 30 W m⁻² in most extratropical regions. Except for large scales, there is no useful common signal in the tropics, and reproducibility is especially poor in regions of active convection and where stratocumulus prevails. Although time series of monthly anomalies of surface bulk fluxes from the two models and COADS agree very well over the northern extratropical oceans, the total fields all contain large systematic biases which make them unsuitable for determining ocean heat transports. TOA biases in absorbed shortwave, outgoing longwave and net radiation from both reanalysis models are substantial (>20 W m⁻² in the tropics) and indicate that clouds are a primary source of problems in the model fluxes, both at the surface and the TOA. Time series of monthly COADS surface fluxes are shown to be unreliable south of about 20^∘N where there are fewer than 25 observations per 5^∘ square per month. Only the derived surface fluxes give reasonable implied meridional ocean heat transports. Received: 21 March 2000 / Accepted: 21 June 2000     

On drag coefficient parameterization with post processed direct fluxes measurements over the ocean

This study presents an evaluation of the atmospheric factors influencing the post-processing for fast-response data of horizontal momentum, vertical wind component, temperature, and water vapor to measure turbulent fluxes. They are observed at the Ieodo ocean research station over the Yellow Sea during the period of October 2004 to February 2008. The post process methods employed here are composed of quality control and tilt correction for turbulent flux measurement. The present result of quality control on the fast-response data shows that total removal ratio of the data generally depends on the factors such as a wind speed, relative humidity, significant wave height, visibility, and stability parameter (z/L). Especially, the removal ratio of water vapor data is significantly increased on light wind and strong stability conditions. The results show that the total removal ratio of water vapor data increases when wind speed is less than 3 m s^?1 and wave height is less than 1 m. The total removal ratio of water vapor data also increases with the value of the stability parameter. Three different algorithms of tilt correction methods (double rotation, triple rotation, and planar fit) are applied to correct the tilt of the sonic anemometer used in the observation. Friction velocities in near neutral state are greater than friction velocity in other states. Drag coefficients are categorized in terms of stabilities and seasons.     

The effect of horizontal resolution on ocean surface heat fluxes in the ECMWF model

Annual mean ocean surface heat fluxes have been studied as a function of horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model (cycle 33) and compared with Oberhuber's COADS (1959–1979) based empirical estimates. The model has been run at resolutions of T21, T42, T63 and T106 for 15 months with prescribed monthly varying climatological SST and sea ice. The T42 simulation was extended to 2 years, which enabled us to determine that many differences between the resolution runs were significant and could not be explained by the fact that individual realizations of an ensemble of years can be expected to give different estimates of the annual mean climate state. In addition to systematic differences between the modeled and the observed fluxes, the simulated fields of surface shortwave and longwave radiation showed much more spatial variability than the observed estimates. In the case of the longwave radiation this may be attributable more to deficiencies in the observations than to errors in the model. The modeled latent and sensible heat fields were in better agreement with observations. The primary conclusion concerning the dependence of ocean surface fluxes on resolution is that the T21 simulation differed significantly from the higher resolution runs, especially in the tropics. Although the differences among the three higher resolution simulations were generally small over most of the world ocean, there were local areas with large differences. It appears, therefore, that in relation to ocean surface heat fluxes, a resolution greater than T42 may not be justified for climate model simulations, although the locally large differences found between the higher resolution runs suggest that convergence has not been achieved everywhere even at T106.     

海南岛海风雷暴结构的数值模拟

利用WRF(ARW)V3.6模式模拟了2010年10月5-6日发生在海南的一次秋季大暴雨过程,从降水、风场、反射率和云结构等方面分析WRF模式中3个积云参数化方案(KF,BMJ,TiedTke)和4个微物理参数化方案(Lin et al,WSM5,WSM6,Thompson)对海南岛秋季暴雨模拟的影响。结果表明:此次秋季暴雨过程模拟对不同的积云参数化方案和微物理参数化方案组合是比较敏感的,不同的积云参数化方案和微物理参数化方案组合通过调整温湿场结构,从而影响模拟降水的时间、强度和落区。对比发现,Thompson微物理方案的组合对于降水量级的模拟更为敏感,能较合理的描述暴雨发生发展过程中的水汽输送、热力和动力条件,并通过影响雨水混合比和云水混合比的高度和大小从而影响降水。其中Thompson微物理方案和TiedTke积云方案的组合能较好的模拟出本次暴雨过程的特征,与实测最为接近,该组合模拟的最大垂直速度和反射率区与最大云水混合比对应。另外,积云方案和微物理方案的选择不影响水汽混合比的模拟。

     

中国北方冬季降水的多源资料产品评估和融合优化

为了考察不同来源降水产品在中国北方冬季（特别是固态降水）的精度和可用性,优化融合降水产品质量,利用2019年12月—2020年2月美国CMORPH和IMERGE卫星反演降水、日本GSMaP、中国气象局雷达定量估测降水（MOC-QPE）、CMA-MESO模式预报以及地面观测插值等不同来源分析的降水产品,以地面站观测逐小时降水量数据为基准,从KGE评分、相关系数、平均误差和均方根误差等精度统计指标以及命中率（FOD）、虚警率（FAR）和TS评分等降水事件发生角度开展评估,结果表明:中国区域单源降水产品中地面插值分析产品对冬季降水描述精度最高也最稳定,但存在明显的系统偏低;其次是MOC-QPE和IMERG卫星产品,对中国北方偏南部地区的降水有一定的描述能力,但对北方高纬度地区固态降水的反映能力较差;卫星产品中IMERG精度最高,CMORPH则基本没有反演能力;CMA-MSEO模式产品虽然误差较大但与地面站观测的降水特别是固态降水存在较高相关,明显优于雷达和IMERG、GSMaP等卫星产品。采用BMA技术融合雷达、模式、卫星降水形成优化背景场,评估逐步引入不同的数据源对融合降水在冬季的精度影响,引入IMERG卫星和CMA-MESO模式产品均能提升高分辨率融合产品的质量,其中模式产品的改进效果最显著。