用冬季地气图预测河套地区春夏旱涝的初步方法

分析了河套地区9个测站1954-2005年春季(3~5月)和夏季(6~8月)降水距平百分率及对应的冬季地气形势,经对比分析地气形势可分为5种类型:(1)大涡型,(2)小涡型,(3)河套处于地热涡或地冷涡的东(西)边缘(东西相反型),(4)河套处于地热(冷)涡的南(北)边缘(南北相反型),(5)地气系统尺度很小(系统零乱型)。分析发现:“大涡型”最为稳定,河套春、夏季降水也是稳定的多或少(对大地热或冷涡);“小涡型”的稳定性不如大涡,但做夏季预测时可参考大涡型;“东西相反型”意味着河套地区在地热涡和地冷涡之间,可预测河套地区春夏季降水将是正常;当出现“南北相反”或“系统零乱”型时,预报准确率较低。     

黄河龙头水库多水月(季)预测的地气图方法

利用黄河龙头水库流量控制站——唐乃亥水文站1956年以来逐月流量资料和东亚地震资料及黄河产流区久治气象站1975年以来逐月3.2m地温资料,研究了唐乃亥多水期(流量正距平)的成因及其预报。发现东亚6.5级以上强震形成的地热涡经过黄河源区是唐乃亥多水的原因,具体可分为(1)上游强震涡东移;(2)南北地震带中段强震涡北移;(3)西北太平洋强震涡西退;(4)北方强震的"拍频"作用引发地热涡生成。另外,久治站3.2m地温的增暖过程可作为唐乃亥流量增加的指标。     

利用地热异常定性预测年度降水之方法

将“地气图”方法引入年度降水的定性预测中,在分析了1955－1996年共42a的气修资料及地球自转速度的变化与同期地热涡族轴线走向之间的关系后,发现地热族轴线与我国东部雨带的走向基本一致,且多（少）雨带轴线与地热（冷）涡族轴线基本相合,即轴线呈南北向时,雨带亦呈南北向,反之亦然。在地球自转的减慢年,雨带往往呈南北向。     

“地气图”方法用于省级旱涝预测的实践

简要介绍用“地气图”方法进行降水预测的基本思路,总结此方法的预报实践,指出省级尺度旱涝预测需要解决的几个关键问题,强调除加密观测外,上游地热涡增强的能量频散作用是下游地热涡发展的重要原因     

西北干旱区地气温差的时空特征分析

利用西北干旱区55个站1961—2000年0cm地温和气温资料,利用EOF、旋转EOF分析和小波分析方法．分析了西北干旱区地气温差的空间分布及时间演变特征。结果表明：西北干旱区地气温差6月份最大,1月份最小;春、夏、秋三季均为正值,冬季除个别站点外均为负值。西北干旱区春、夏、秋、冬四季地气温差的空问分布前三个特征向量均表现为三种分布型：全区一致型、南北差异型和东西差异型。在过去40年问,西北干旱区的地气温差表现为四种时间演变型：具有极小值的抛物线型、具有极大值的抛物线型、单调递增型和单调递减型。西北干旱区地气温差的周期振荡主要以3～6年和20年为主。这些周期振荡在不同区域不同时期的显著性不同。     

中国西北干旱、半干旱区春季地气温差的年代际变化特征及其对华北夏季降水年代际变化的影响

利用我国1951~2000年夏季降水观测资料分析了我国夏季降水的年代际变化特征,表明了我国夏季降水在1976年前后发生了一次明显的气候跃变,在1976年之后华北地区和黄河流域夏季降水明显减少,出现了严重持续干旱,而西北地区从20世纪70年代后期开始,降水增多,且西北地区降水振荡位相要超前于华北地区降水振荡位相5~8年。并且,本文从1960~2000年我国西北干旱、半干旱区的地温、气温观测资料分析了我国西北干旱、半干旱地区的地气温差(Ts-Ta)的变化特征,其结果表明了在20世纪70年代后期以前,我国西北干旱、半干旱地区的地气温差大部分年份偏低,低于平均值,而从70年代后期之后到2000年,我国西北干旱、半干旱地区的地气温差偏高。此外,本文还分析了西北干旱区地气温差变化的最大地区新疆西部春季地气温差与我国夏季降水的相关关系,其正相关区分别位于西北地区、东北地区和长江流域,而负相关区分别位于华北地区东部和西南地区,这表明我国西北干旱、半干旱区春季地气温差可能是华北地区夏季降水年代际变化的原因之一。     

青海省雪灾气候预测的地气图方法

通过对青海省1960年以来全省各气象站的雪灾资料统计分析,结合青海省南部(下称青南)地区8月份的地气形势,发现二者之间有很好的相关：夏季地热涡和正鞍形场多对应冬季为重雪灾;地冷涡和负鞍形场多对应冬季为轻灾或无灾。春夏季上游的中强地震可加强冬季的雪灾。由此表明,利用地气图方法可以较好地预测青海省的雪灾。     

1980～1994年台湾海峡两岸的地热涡与降水季度预报初探

利用１９８０～１９９４年大陆３．２ｍ深度和台湾３．０ｍ深度的地温资料,分析了１５ａ来的逐季地气图,统计了台湾海峡两岸的地热涡活动,发现平均每季有１个地热涡活动,其水平尺度比大陆内部的地热涡要小,生命史也要短,进入台湾地区的地热涡绝大多数是从西方和北方进入,其移动速度比大陆内部的要快得多。９０％以上的地热涡在同期有多雨区与其对应,热涡中心与多雨中心相距在１００ｋｍ以内者占６８％。最后给出了一个季度降水的定性预测方案,其步骤为：预报地热涡的中心位置、强度和水平尺度;推算降水正距平区的水平尺度、中心位置和强度;根据本区发生的地震等情况进行预报订正。     

2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测

对2007年做出的各项气候预测进行了回顾,汛期预报中预测的西北大部、淮河流域和福建3块多雨区基本正确,它们都是根据地气图的基本原理预测得到。月降水预报取得平均70．5分的好成绩,这得益于地气系统的活动规律较单纯;年度预报则基本上失败了,这是因为2008年1月我国发生了6．9级强震,破坏了地气系统的正常运行规律,使预报准确率大为降低。最后还对2008年8月的月降水预测进行了讨论。     

我国春夏季地气温差的时空变化特征及其与夏季降水的联系

利用1960~2006年我国地温、气温逐日4个时次[02:00(北京时间,下同)、08:00、14:00和20:00]的和中国降水台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了我国春季(3~5月)和夏季(6~8月)地气温差的时空变化特征及其与夏季降水的联系。分析结果表明:我国春季地气温差主要存在着3种空间模态分布,第1模态表现出我国西部地区地气温差为正值,我国东部地区从南至北呈现出"-、+、-、+"空间分布特征;而第2模态则呈现"+、-、+"的空间分布特征;第3模态则表现出一致的空间分布特征。我国夏季地气温差同样存在着3种空间模态分布,第1模态表现出我国东部和西部地区夏季地气温差反相的空间分布特征;第2模态则呈现出"-、+、-"的空间分布特征;而第3模态则表现出"+、-、+、-"的空间分布特征。分析结果进一步表明我国春季和夏季地气温差第1模态与我国长江中下游地区夏季降水均存在正相关关系,而与华北地区出现负相关关系。而且,夏季更加显著。这主要是由于我国东部和西部热力差异增强,有利于在我国东部地区出现西北风异常,这说明东亚夏季风偏弱,不利于水汽向北输送,有利于华北地区降水偏少。并且,在我国东南部地区出现水汽辐合和上升运动,从而有利于我国长江中下游地区夏季降水偏多。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.