Green‐Ampt Curve‐Number mixed procedure as an empirical tool for rainfall–runoff modelling in small and ungauged basins

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method is a popular rainfall–runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS‐CN is a simple and valuable approach to quantify the total streamflow volume generated by storm rainfall, but its use is not appropriate for estimating the sub‐daily incremental rainfall excess. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green‐Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as Curve Number for Green‐Ampt (CN4GA), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS‐CN method. For a given storm, the computed SCS‐CN total net rainfall amount is employed to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA model. The proposed procedure is evaluated by analysing 100 rainfall–runoff events that were observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears to provide encouraging results for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, better agreement with the observed hydrographs than the classic SCS‐CN method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of multi‐use stormwater detention basins for improved urban watershed management

Detention basins are used to capture postdevelopment runoff and control the peak discharge of the outflow using orifices and weirs. The use of detention basins is typical practice in the construction of new developments on the fringe of existing urban areas, such as the Ulsan–Hwabong district in the city of Ulsan, South Korea. In this study, the required volume and flooding area of a detention basin was determined to control development outflow peaks for 2‐year, 10‐year, and 100‐year design storms with type II rainfall distributions as characterized by the US Department of Agriculture's Soil Conservation Service method. The rainfall–runoff simulation model used was the US Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (EPA‐SWMM) 5, which is the latest version of the software, updated for Windows. We designed three cases of detention basins multi‐staged by 2‐year, 10‐year, and 100‐year design storms and verified the designs with the application of 49 years (1961–2009) of hourly historical rainfall data. The three detention basin designs were compared in terms of the total construction and land costs as well as the benefits associated with recreational facilities or parking lot use. As a result, the design sizes of the detention basins are slightly greater than the actual sizes needed based on the historical rainfall application. Multi‐use detention basins (MDBs) based on 2‐year and 10‐year design storms were found to yield 37.4% and 22.8% benefits, respectively, for recreational facility use compared with detention basins without multi‐use space, and the results also indicate that benefits accrue after 6.5 years for parking lot use. The results of this study suggest that an MDB based on a 2‐year design storm is the most cost‐effective design among the three cases considered for Ulsan, South Korea. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The antecedent soil moisture condition of the curve number procedure

Abstract

Estimation of direct runoff, peak discharge or hydrographs is often necessary in small to medium-sized ungauged basins. Different models are used in practice for these purposes, depending on the type of problem, the available data and the prevailing runoff mechanisms in the study basin. This paper discusses the applicability of the curve number procedure developed by the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) to estimate direct runoff in basins characterized by small to gentle undulating slopes mainly covered with natural grasslands. Rainfall and runoff data measured in the Cañada de Los Chanchos basin in Uruguay is used to fit the curve numbers and to analyse the antecedent soil moisture condition proposed by the SCS.     

Validation of a full hydrodynamic model for large‐scale hydrologic modelling in the Amazon

A key aspect of large river basins partially neglected in large‐scale hydrological models is river hydrodynamics. Large‐scale hydrologic models normally simulate river hydrodynamics using simplified models that do not represent aspects such as backwater effects and flood inundation, key factors for some of the largest rivers of the world, such as the Amazon. In a previous paper, we have described a large‐scale hydrodynamic approach resultant from an improvement of the MGB‐IPH hydrological model. It uses full Saint Venant equations, a simple storage model for flood inundation and GIS‐based algorithms to extract model parameters from digital elevation models. In the present paper, we evaluate this model in the Solimões River basin. Discharge results were validated using 18 stream gauges showing that the model is accurate. It represents the large delay and attenuation of flood waves in the Solimões basin, while simplified models, represented here by Muskingum Cunge, provide hydrographs are wrongly noisy and in advance. Validation against 35 stream gauges shows that the model is able to simulate observed water levels with accuracy, representing their amplitude of variation and timing. The model performs better in large rivers, and errors concentrate in small rivers possibly due to uncertainty in river geometry. The validation of flood extent results using remote sensing estimates also shows that the model accuracy is comparable to other flood inundation modelling studies. Results show that (i) river‐floodplain water exchange and storage, and (ii) backwater effects play an important role for the Amazon River basin hydrodynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of floodplain variability considering impacts of climate change

In this study, an approach is presented for handling hydraulic uncertainties in the prediction of floodplain. Different factors affect river flood characteristics. Furthermore, the high changeability of flooding conditions leads to high variability of the inundation. River morphology is one of the most effective factors in river flood characteristics. This factor is influenced by sedimentation and erosion in the river cross sections, which affects the discharge variation. The depth and the width of the river cross section lead to an increase or decrease in the river flow path. This results in changes in the extent of the floodplain based on the generated rainfall. The inundated region boundaries are determined by utilizing the mean first‐order second‐moment analysis. The proposed method is applied to the Kajoo River in the south‐eastern part of Iran. Determination of floodplain uncertainty is a damage‐reduction policy in this region. Also, it is useful to prepare the necessary activities for overcoming the flood hazards. Climate change is the second effective factor on the floodplain uncertainties. Climate change affects the magnitude, extent and depth of inundation and it may intensify the flood problem. Therefore, the future rainfall pattern of the study area under climate change is simulated to evaluate its impacts on the river flow characteristic. Subsequently, a hydraulic routing model is used to determine floodplain. Finally, the copula function is used to estimate the joint probability of the changes in the inundation area due to changes in river morphology and the rainfall changes due to impacts of climate change. Results show that the uncertainties of the extent of floodplain are affected by climate change and river morphology, leading to noticeable changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods. Evaluating these impacts and estimating corresponding river discharges will help in the study of river dynamics, and will also contribute towards devising effective mitigation and management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of parameter uncertainty on calculated sediment yield

The modified Universal Soil Loss Equation combined with the U.S. Soil Conservation Service runoff calculation method is analysed with respect to parameter uncertainty. The case of agricultural watersheds, where the above method gives quite accurate estimates on the multiannual sediment yield, illustrates the methodology. Parameter uncertainty results in a coefficient of variation of the calculated sediment yield in the range (0.14–0.21). For the general case, five groups of statistical error bound for the parameters are distinguished, based on available information such as the scale of maps.     

Large‐scale modelling of channel flow and floodplain inundation dynamics and its application to the Pantanal (Brazil)

For large‐scale sites, difficulties for applying coupled one‐dimensional (1D)/2D models for simulating floodplain inundation may be encountered related to data scarcity, complexity for establishing channel–floodplain connections, computational cost, long duration of floods and the need to represent precipitation and evapotranspiration processes. This paper presents a hydrologic simulation system, named SIRIPLAN, developed to accomplish this aim. This system is composed by a 1D hydrodynamic model coupled to a 2D raster‐based model, and by two modules to compute the vertical water balance over floodplain and the water exchanges between channel and floodplain. Results are presented for the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB), including the Pantanal, one of the world's largest wetlands. A total of 3965 km of river channels and 140 000 km² of floodplains are simulated for a period of 11 years. Comparison of observed and calculated hydrographs at 15 gauging stations showed that the model was capable to simulate distinct, complex flow regimes along main channels, including channel‐floodplain interactions. The proposed system was also able to reproduce the Pantanal seasonal flood pulse, with estimated inundated areas ranging from 35 000 km² (dry period) to more than 120 000 km² (wet period). Floodplain inundation maps obtained with SIRIPLAN were consistent with previous knowledge of Pantanal dynamics, but comparison with inundation extent provided by a previous satellite‐based study indicates that permanently flooded areas may have been underestimated. The results obtained are promising, and further work will focus on improving vertical processes representation over floodplains and analysing model sensitivity to floodplain parameters, time step and precipitation estimates uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

Reduction of discharge hydrograph and flood stage resulted from upstream detention ponds

The models of physiographic inundation and flood routing for channel network were used in this study to analyse the influence of the Tainan Scientific Base Industrial Park (TSBIP) and Feng-Hua detention ponds on the inundated potential, inundated volume, flood damage, and flood stage of peak flow along the Yen-Shui creek in 2-day flood for the 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods, respectively. The computed results show that the TSBIP detention ponds are able to reduce the inundated area and flood damage. However, the decrease in inundated area is not obvious for the 50-year return-period flood. Construction of the Feng-Hua detention pond resulted in a significant decrease in the flood stage along the Yen-Shui creek in the downstream reach. Moreover, the decrease in peak flow and lag of time-to-peak become increasingly evident in the downstream direction for the 2- and 10-year return-period events. For the 50-year return period, the lag of time-to-peak is not apparent, but the decrease in peak flow is still noticeable. In respect to the performance of detention ponds, the slopes of hydrographs in the rising and recession segments are smoother than those without detention ponds. Meanwhile, the shapes of peak become flatter if the detention ponds are installed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm‐coverage effect on dynamic flood‐frequency analysis: empirical data analysis

In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records for simulating runoff and infiltration into soil profiles

Hydrological modelling often implies the use of rainfall data. Its quality and resolution directly affect the accuracy of the simulation results. This study illustrates that a simple approach of incorporating rainfall intensity information in daily rainfall records significantly improves the simulation of surface runoff and rainfall infiltration into soil profiles. The procedure is developed using a frequency analysis on rainfall data of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, collected with a resolution of 10 min and for a consecutive period of 61 years. The frequency analysis of the data allowed the incorporation of rainfall intensity information into daily rainfall records. To test the effect of this approach the surface runoff and water flow into three different soil types was simulated using the HYDRUS‐1D model for a typical dry, normal and wet year. The simulation results whereby the observed 10‐min rainfall data was used as input were considered as the reference. Comparative analysis revealed that the simulations using the 10 min rainfall data deducted from the incorporation of rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records, deviate a maximum 1·2% from the reference and produce much better results than the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve‐number method because rainfall intensity is considered in the procedure presented. The SCS curve‐number method typical overestimates surface runoff during periods of low rainfall intensity (winter) and underestimate runoff during periods of high rainfall intensities (summer). Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

A spatially distributed Clark’s unit hydrograph based hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark)

ABSTRACT

A hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS.     

Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data

Previously we have detailed an application of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure to estimate spatially distributed uncertainty in models conditioned against binary pattern data contained in flood inundation maps. This method was applied to two sites where a single consistent synoptic image of inundation extent was available to test the simulation performance of the method. In this paper, we extend this to examine the predictive performance of the method for a reach of the River Severn, west‐central England. Uniquely for this reach, consistent inundation images of two major floods have been acquired from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars, as well as a high‐resolution digital elevation model derived using laser altimetry. These data thus allow rigorous split sample testing of the previous GLUE application. To achieve this, Monte Carlo analyses of parameter uncertainty within the GLUE framework are conducted for a typical hydraulic model applied to each flood event. The best 10% of parameter sets identified in each analysis are then used to map uncertainty in flood extent predictions using the method previously proposed for both an independent validation data set and a design flood. Finally, methods for combining the likelihood information derived from each Monte Carlo ensemble are examined to determine whether this has the potential to reduce uncertainty in spatially distributed measures of flood risk for a design flood. The results show that for this reach and these events, the method previously established is able to produce sharply defined flood risk maps that compare well with observed inundation extent. More generally, we show that even single, poor‐quality inundation extent images are useful in constraining hydraulic model calibrations and that values of effective friction parameters are broadly stationary between the two events simulated, most probably reflecting their similar hydraulics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validity and extension of the SCS‐CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS‐CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS‐CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates. The extended SCS‐CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates are found to be in good agreement. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating sea-state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

A common source of uncertainty in flood inundation forecasting is the hydrograph used. Given the role of sea-air-hydro-land chain processes on the water cycle, flood hydrographs in coastal areas can be indirectly affected by sea state. This study investigates sea-state effects on precipitation, discharge, and flood inundation forecasting implementing atmospheric, ocean wave, hydrological, and hydraulic-hydrodynamic coupled models. The Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS) was used for coupled hydro-meteorological-wave simulations ‘accounting’ or ‘not accounting’ the impact of sea state on precipitation and, subsequently, on flood hydrograph. CHAOS includes the WRF-Hydro hydrological model and the WRF-ARW meteorological model two-way coupled with the WAM wave model through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. Subsequently, the 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic-hydrodynamic model was forced by the flood hydrographs and map the inundated areas. A flash flood event occurred on 15 November 2017 in Mandra, Attica, Greece, causing 24 fatalities, and damages was selected as case study. The calibration of models was performed exploiting historical flood records and previous studies. Human interventions such as hydraulic works and the urban areas were included in the hydraulic modelling geometry domain. The representation of the resistance caused by buildings was based on Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) data while the local elevation rise method was used in the urban-flood simulation. The flood extent results were assessed using the Critical Success Index (CSI), and CSI penalize. Integrating sea-state affected the forecast of precipitation and discharge peaks, causing up to +24% and from −8% to +36% differences, respectively, improving inundation forecast by 4.5% and flooding additional approximately 70 building blocks. The precipitation forcing time step was also highlighted as significant factor in such a small-scale flash flood. The integrated multidisciplinary methodological approach could be adopted in operational forecasting for civil protection applications facilitating the protection of socio-economic activities and human lives during similar future events.     

A probabilistic model for real‐time flood warning based on deterministic flood inundation mapping

Deterministic flood inundation mapping is valuable for the investigation of detailed flood depth and extent. However, when these data are used for real‐time flood warning, uncertainty arises while encountering the difficulties of timely response, message interpretation and performance evaluation that makes statistical analysis necessary. By incorporating deterministic flood inundation map outputs statistically by means of logistic regression, this paper presents a probabilistic real‐time flood warning model determining region‐based flood probability directly from rainfall, being efficient in computation, clear in message, and valid in physical meaning. The calibration and validation of the probabilistic model show a satisfactory overall correctness rate, with the hit rate far surpassing the false alarm rate in issuing flood warning for historical events. Further analyses show that the probabilistic model is effective in evaluating the level of uncertainty lying within flood warning which can be reduced by several techniques proposed in order to improve warning performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The hydrogeomorphic influences on alluvial gully erosion along the Mitchell River fluvial megafan

Hydrogeomorphic processes influencing alluvial gully erosion were evaluated at multiple spatial and temporal scales across the Mitchell River fluvial megafan in tropical Queensland, Australia. Longitudinal changes in floodplain inundation were quantified using river gauge data, local stage recorders and HEC‐RAS modelling based on LiDAR topographic data. Intra‐ and interannual gully scarp retreat rates were measured using daily time‐lapse photographs and annual GPS surveys. Erosion was analysed in response to different water sources and associated erosion processes across the floodplain perirheic zone, including direct rainfall, infiltration‐excess runoff, soil‐water seepage, river backwater and overbank flood inundation. The frequency of river flood inundation of alluvial gullies changed longitudinally according to river incision and confinement. Near the top of the megafan, flood water was contained within the macrochannel up to the 100‐year recurrence interval, but river backwater still partially inundated adjacent gullies eroding into Pleistocene alluvium. In downstream Holocene floodplains, inundation of alluvial gullies occurred beyond the 2‐ to 5‐year recurrence interval and contributed significantly to total annual erosion. However, most gully scarp retreat at all sites was driven by direct rainfall and infiltration‐excess runoff, with the 24‐h rainfall total being the most predictive variable. The remaining variability can be explained by seasonal vegetative conditions, complex cycles of soil wetting and drying, tension crack development, near‐surface pore‐water pressure, soil block undermining from spalling and overland flow, and soil property heterogeneity. Implications for grazing management impacts on soil surface and perennial grass conditions include effects on direct rainfall erosion, water infiltration, runoff volume, water concentration along tracks, and the resistance of highly dispersible soils to gully initiation or propagation under intense tropical rainfall. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.