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1.
Radar observations of nor’wester (premonsoon thunderstorm) as experienced over the Gangetic West Bengal and the integrated field intensity of atmospherics (IFIA) at 10, 20 and 30 kHz recorded over the tropical station at Calcutta have been analysed. The records of IFIA reveal that, during nor’wester, the enhancement in the signal level occurs in three different stages: (i) gradual rise of atmospherics (GRA), (ii) first sudden enhancement of atmospherics (SEA1) and (iii) second sudden enhancement of atmospherics (SEA2. Their respective occurrences have been found to be prevalent in pre-noon, latenoon and afternoon hours of a day. Of the three stages, GRA and SEA1 have been found to occur before the onset of thunderstorm, while SEA2 may even occur after its onset. A comparative study reveals that the precipitation during premonsoon thunderstorms is associated with the second sudden enhancement, while it is associated with the steady recovery of IFIA during the monsoon and postmonsoon thunderstorms. The characteristics of the first nor’wester of every year have been critically examined with an additional consideration of simultaneous radiosonde records. A probable explanation has been made in terms of the distribution of the effective sources at such times around the observing site.  相似文献   

2.
The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

Knowledge of rainfall characteristics such as drop-size distribution is essential for the development of erosion-mitigation strategies and models. This research used an optical disdrometer to elucidate the relationships between raindrop-size distribution, median volume drop diameter (D50), kinetic energy and radar reflectivity (dBz) of simulated rainfall of different intensities. The D50 values were higher for the simulated rain than for natural rain at almost all rainfall intensities, perhaps due to variations in rainfall types and the turbulence in natural rain that breaks up large drops. The kinetic energy ranged from 26.67 to 5955.51 J m?2 h ?1, while the median volume drop diameter (D50) was in the range 1.94–7.25 mm, for intensities between 1.5 and 202.6 mm h?1. The relationship between radar reflectivity (Z) and the intensity (R) of the simulated rain was best described by a power law function (Z = aRb), with a and b coefficients in the ranges 162–706 and 0.94–2.46, respectively, throughout the range of rainfall intensities (1.5–202.6 mm h?1).  相似文献   

4.
Following the statistical analyses of long‐term rainfall‐runoff records from research basins in humid temperate latitudes, Hewlett and co‐workers extended the global challenge to disprove their findings that rainfall intensity was non‐significant. This paper responds to Hewlett's challenge as no preceding analyses have involved forested basins in a tropical cyclone‐prone area. Based on a 7 year rainfall‐runoff record, quickflow (QF), peak flow (QP) and quickflow response ratios (QRR) were regressed as dependent variables against rainfall parameters (intensity, Pi, amount, P), storm duration, D and antecedent flow, I. These data sets were categorised into total streamflow (Q) classes and stratified into three seasons, (monsoon, post‐monsoon and dry) for forested and cleared catchments. Where rainfall variable collinearity met acceptable levels, the addition of Pi to regression models including P, D, I contributed up to 9% and 66% of the respective variations in quickflow and peak flow. For the highest Q storm classes (monsoon), Pi alone accounted for up to 67% and 91% of the variation in QF and QP respectively and was the dominant influence on QP for all seasons. The very high rainfall intensities experienced in the monsoon season is a causal factor why these results differ from those of other research drainage basins. Surprisingly, Pi continued to have a significant influence on QF for dry season classes when less‐intense rainfall occurs. Further the results were similar for both catchments across all seasons. P was the dominant independent variable affecting QF above a threshold Q of 50 mm (monsoon), as rainfall contributes directly to saturation overland flow and return flow under saturated conditions. Further although QRR increased with increasing Q for each season, the regression results for that parameter were poor possibly due to the non‐linearity of the rainfall‐runoff relationship. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Wave data collected off Goa along the west coast of India during February 1996-May 1997 has been subjected to spectral analysis, and swell and wind sea parameters have been estimated by separation frequency method. Dominance of swells and wind seas on monthly and seasonal basis has been estimated, and the analysis shows that swells dominate Goa coastal region not only during southwest monsoon (93%), but also during the post-monsoon (67%) season. Wind seas are dominant during the pre-monsoon season (51%). The mean wave periods (Tm) during southwest monsoon are generally above 5 s, whereas Tm is below 5 s during other seasons. Co-existence of multiple peaks (from NW and NE) was observed in the locally generated part of the wave spectrum, especially during the post-monsoon season. NCEP reanalysis winds have been used to analyse active fetch available in the Indian Ocean, from where the predominant swells propagate to the west coast of India. A numerical model was set up to simulate waves in the Indian Ocean using flexible mesh bathymetry. The correlation coefficients between measured and modelled significant wave heights and mean wave periods are 0.96 and 0.85, respectively. Numerical simulations reproduced the swell characteristics in the Indian Ocean, and from the model results potential swell generation areas are identified. The characteristics of swells associated with tropical storms that prevail off Goa during 1996 have also been analysed.  相似文献   

6.
--Atmospheric aerosols were sampled from aircraft at various levels over Rihand in northern India during the monsoon season of 1974 and at surface levels at Calcutta, Delhi, Varanasi and Jodhpur during different seasons of 1970 and 1971. Millipore filter assembly was used for this purpose. Chloride nuclei, total aerosol and ice nuclei concentrations were evaluated from millipore filters. At Rihand/Varanasi, during the monsoon, the chloride size spectrum was broader and the distribution bimodal at cloud base level while the spectra were narrower and the distributions unimodal at other levels. At Rihand, chloride mass and larger giant chloride number were considerably higher, total aerosol higher while ice nuclei concentrations were lower on the days with moderate rain as compared to those with light rain. Calcutta (maritime) showed maximum while Varanasi (well-inland) showed minimum chloride number concentrations. As compared with Calcutta, Delhi (continental) had lower chloride and total aerosol, and markedly higher ice nuclei concentrations. Varanasi (high rainfall region) showed all the values, except for small-sized chlorides, notably higher with respect to Jodhpur (low rainfall region). Ice nuclei concentration was lowest in winter and highest in summer at Delhi. Variations of the aerosols during different parts of the day/night are also discussed.  相似文献   

7.
This paper describes the design, operation and performance of a field‐portable ‘drip‐type’ simulator and erosion measurement system. The system was constructed specifically for soil erosion research in the humid tropics and has been used extensively in Malaysian Borneo. The simulator is capable of producing replicable storms of up to 200 mm h?1 intensity and 20–30 minutes duration with a drop‐size distribution close to that of natural storms of such intensity (D50 of simulated rainfall is 4·15 mm at 200 mm h?1 and 3·65 mm at 160 mm h?1, D50 measured during natural rainfall = 3·25 mm). The simulator is portable and simply constructed and operates without a motor or electronics, thus making it particularly useful in remote, mountainous areas. The erosion measurement system allows assessment of: (1) rainsplash detachment and net downslope transport from the erosion plot; (2) slopewash (erosion transported by overland flow); and (3) infiltration capacity and overland flow. The performance of the simulator–erosion system compared with previous systems is assessed with reference to experiments carried out in primary and regenerating tropical rainforest at Danum Valley (Malaysian Borneo). The system was found to compare favourably with previous field simulators, producing a total storm kinetic energy of 727 J m?2 (over a 20‐minute storm event) and a kinetic energy rate of 0·61 J m?2 s?1, approximately half that experienced on the ground during a natural rainfall event of similar intensity, despite the shorter distance to the ground. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Stable water isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) are an important source signature for understanding the hydrological cycle and altered climate regimes. However, the mechanisms underlying atmospheric water vapour isotopes in the northeast Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau of central Asia remain poorly understood. This study initially investigated water vapour isotopic composition and its controls during the premonsoon and monsoon seasons. Isotopic compositions of water vapour and precipitation exhibited high variability across seasons, with the most negative average δ18O values of precipitation and the most positive δ18O values of water vapour found during the premonsoon periods. Temperature effect was significant during the premonsoon period but not the monsoon period. Both a higher slope and intercept of the local meteoric water line were found during the monsoon period as compared with in the premonsoon period, suggesting that raindrops have been experienced a greater kinetic fractionation process such as reevaporation below the cloud during the premonsoon periods. The δ2H and δ18O signatures in atmospheric water vapour tended to be depleted with the occurrence of precipitation events especially during the monsoon period and probably as a result of rainout processes. The monthly average contribution of evaporation from the lake to local precipitation was 35.2%. High d‐excess values of water vapour were influenced by the high proportion of local moisture mixing, as indicated by the gradually increasing relative humidity along westerly and Asian monsoon trajectories. The daily observation (observed ε) showed deviations from the equilibrium fractionation factors (calculated ε), implying that raindrops experienced substantial evaporative enrichment during their descent. The average fraction of raindrops reevaporation was estimated to be 16.4± 12.9%. These findings provide useful insights for understanding the interaction between water vapour and precipitation, moisture sources, and help in reconstructing the paleoclimate in the alpine regions.  相似文献   

9.
Rainfall erosivity represents the primary driver for particle detachment in splash soil erosion. Several raindrop erosivity indices have been developed in order to quantify the potential of rainfall to cause soil erosion. Different types of rainfall simulators have been used to relate rainfall characteristics to soil detachment. However, rainfall produced by different rainfall simulators has different characteristics, specifically different relationships between rainfall intensity and rainfall erosivity. For this reason, the effect of rainfall characteristics produced by a dripper‐type rainfall simulator on splash soil erosion (Ds) has been investigated. The simulated rainfall kinetic energy (KE) and drop size distribution (DSD) were measured using piezoelectric transducers, modified from the Vaisala RAINCAP® rain sensor. The soil splash was evaluated under various simulated rainfall intensities ranging from 10 to 100 mm h?1 using the splash‐cup method. The simulated rainfall intensity (I) and kinetic energy relationship (IKE) was found to be different from natural rainfall. The simulated rainfall intensity and splash soil erosion relationship (IDs) also followed this same trend. The IKE relationship was found to follow the natural rainfall trend until the rainfall intensity reached 30 mm h?1 and above this limit the KE started to decrease. This emphasizes the importance of the IKE relationship in determining the IDs relationship, which can differ from one rainfall simulator to another. Ds was found to be highly correlated with KE (r = 0·85, P < 0·001), when data produced by the rainfall intensity ranged from 10 to 100 mm h?1. However, when the threshold rainfall intensity (30 mm h?1) was considered, the correlation coefficient further improved (r = 0·89, P = 0·001). Accordingly, to improve the soil splash estimation of simulated rainfall under various rainfall intensities the I–KE characterization relationship for rainfall simulators has to be taken into account. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Jie Ma  Xin‐Jun Zheng  Yan Li 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4029-4037
As the substantial component of the ecosystem respiration, soil CO2 flux is strongly influenced by infrequent and unpredictable precipitation in arid region. In the current study, we investigated the response of soil CO2 flux to rain pulses at a saline desert in western China. Soil CO2 flux was measured continuously during the whole growing season of 2009 at six sites. We found that there were remarkable changes in amplitude or diurnal patterns of soil CO2 flux induced by rainfall events: from bimodal before rain to a single peak after that. Further analysis indicated that there is a significant linear relationship (P < 0.001) between soil CO2 flux and soil temperature (Tsoil). However, a hysteresis between the waveform of diurnal course of CO2 flux and Tsoil was observed: with soil CO2 flux always peaked earlier than Tsoil. Furthermore, a double exponential decay function was fitted to the soil CO2 flux after rainfall, and total carbon (C) releases were estimated by numerical integration for rainfall events. The relative enhancement and total C release, in association with the rain pulses, was linearly related to the amount of precipitation. According to the size and frequency of rainfall events, the total amount of C release induced by rain pulses was computed as much as 7.88 g C·m–2 in 2009, equivalent to 10.25% of gross primary production. These results indicated that rain pulses played a significant role in the carbon budget of this saline desert ecosystem, and the size of them was a good indicator of rain‐induced flux enhancement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
To understand the moisture regime at the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro, we analysed the isotopic variability of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δD) of rainfall, throughfall, and fog from a total of 2,140 samples collected weekly over 2 years at 9 study sites along an elevation transect ranging from 950 to 3,880 m above sea level. Precipitation in the Kilimanjaro tropical rainforests consists of a combination of rainfall, throughfall, and fog. We defined local meteoric water lines for all 3 precipitation types individually and the overall precipitation, δDprec = 7.45 (±0.05) × δ18Oprec + 13.61 (±0.20), n  = 2,140, R 2 = .91, p  < .001. We investigated the precipitation‐type‐specific stable isotope composition and analysed the effects of amount, altitude, and temperature. Aggregated annual mean values revealed isotope composition of rainfall as most depleted and fog water as most enriched in heavy isotopes at the highest elevation research site. We found an altitude effect of δ18Orain = ?0.11‰ × 100 m?1, which varied according to precipitation type and season. The relatively weak isotope or altitude gradient may reveal 2 different moisture sources in the research area: (a) local moisture recycling and (b) regional moisture sources. Generally, the seasonality of δ18Orain values follows the bimodal rainfall distribution under the influences of south‐ and north‐easterly trade winds. These seasonal patterns of isotopic composition were linked to different regional moisture sources by analysing Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory backward trajectories. Seasonality of d excess values revealed evidence of enhanced moisture recycling after the onset of the rainy seasons. This comprehensive dataset is essential for further research using stable isotopes as a hydrological tracer of sources of precipitation that contribute to water resources of the Kilimanjaro region.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

Knowledge of rainfall characteristics is important for estimating soil erosion in arid areas. We determined basic rainfall characteristics (raindrop size distribution, intensity and kinetic energy), evaluated the erosivity of rainfall events, and established a relationship between rainfall intensity I and volume-specific kinetic energy KEvol for the Central Rift Valley area of the Ethiopian highlands. We collected raindrops on dyed filter paper and calculated KEvol and erosivity values for each rainfall event. For most rainfall intensities the median volume drop diameter (D50) was higher than expected, or reported in most studies. Rainfall intensity in the region was not high, with 8% of rain events exceeding 30 mm h-1. We calculated soil erosion from storm energy and maximum 30-min intensity for soils of different erodibility under conditions of fallow (unprotected soil), steep slope (about 9%) and no cover and management practice on the surface, and determined that 3 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 is the threshold erosivity, while erosivity of >7 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 could cause substantial erosion in all soil types in the area.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate Editor Q. Zhang  相似文献   

13.
The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is a unique Critical Zone with deep loess deposits, where soil moisture is primarily replenished by seasonal monsoon rainfall. However, the role of vegetation, coupled with complex topography, on rainwater infiltration on the CLP, especially after long‐term revegetation for controlling erosion, is inadequately quantified. Over the growing season of 2016, we monitored soil moisture at the 30‐min interval at 5 depths (10, 20, 40, 60, and 100 cm) in an afforested catchment and a nearby catchment with natural regrowth of grasses. Two monitoring sites were established in each catchment, one in the downhill gully and the other in the uphill slope. We found that vegetation, topography, and rainfall attributes together determined rainwater infiltration and soil moisture replenishment. An accumulated rainfall amount of 9 mm was required to trigger soil moisture response at 10‐cm depth at the 2 grassland sites and the forestland uphill‐slope site whereas 14 mm of rainfall was required for the forestland gully site covered by dense undergrowth and trees. Rainfall events with larger sums and higher peak intensities permitted rainwater infiltration to deeper soil depths. However, no rain recharged soil moisture to 100‐cm depth during the monitoring period. The forestland uphill‐slope site showed the deepest wetting depth (up to 60‐cm depth), fastest wetting‐front velocity (up to 4 cm/hr below 10‐cm depth), and the most significant soil moisture increase (up to 15% cm 3 cm?3 increase at 10‐cm depth) after rainfall in the growing season. The grassland gully site had the highest soil water storage, whereas soil moisture was depleted the most at the forestland gully site. Findings of this study reveal the transient dynamics of soil moisture after rainfall on the CLP, which signifies the role of revegetation on rainwater infiltration in the loess Critical Zone.  相似文献   

14.
Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) introduces solute and nutrients to the global oceans, resulting in considerable nutrient cycling and dynamics in the coastal areas. We have conducted high‐resolution, spatio‐temporal, lunar tidal cycle patterns and variability of discharged solute/nutrient assessment to get an overview of seasonal nutrient flux to the Bay of Bengal in eastern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Whereas the premonsoon season SGD was found to be dominant in the marine influence (M‐SGD), the postmonsoon season was found to be predominated by the terrestrial component of SGD (T‐SGD), extending from coast to near offshore. The solute fluxes and redox transformation were found to be extensively influenced by tidal and diurnal cycles, overlapping on seasonal patterns. We have assessed the possible role of SGD‐associated solute/nutrient fluxes and their discharge mechanisms, and their associated temporal distributions have severe implications on the biological productivity of the Bay of Bengal. The estimated annual solute fluxes, using the average end‐member concentration of the SGD‐associated nutrients, were found to be 240 and 224 mM·m?2·day?1 for NO3? and Fetot, respectively. Together with huge freshwater flux from the Himalayan and Peninsular Indian rivers, the SGD has considerable influence on the bay water circulation, stratification, and solute cycling. Thus, the observation from this study implies that SGD‐associated nutrient flux to the Bay of Bengal may function as a nutrient sink, which might influence the long‐term solute/nutrient flux along the eastern coast of India.  相似文献   

15.
Seasonal and annual trends of changes in rainfall, rainy days, heaviest rain and relative humidity have been studied over the last century for nine different river basins in northwest and central India. The majority of river basins have shown increasing trends both in annual rainfall and relative humidity. The magnitude of increased rainfall for considered river basins varied from 2–19% of mean per 100 years. The maximum increase in rainfall is observed in the Indus (lower) followed by the Tapi river basin. Seasonal analysis shows maximum increase in rainfall in the post‐monsoon season followed by the pre‐monsoon season. There were least variations in the monsoon rainfall during the last century and winter rainfall has shown a decreasing trend. Most of the river basins have experienced decreasing trends in annual rainy days with a maximum decrease in the Mahanadi basin. The heaviest rain of the year has increased from 9–27 mm per 100 years over different river basins with a maximum of 27 mm for the Brahamani and Subaranrekha river basins. A combination of increase in heaviest rainfall and reduction in the number of rainy days suggest the possibility of increasing severity of floods. Such information is useful in the planning, development and management of water resources in the study area. Further, the majority of river basins have also experienced an increasing trend in relative humidity both on seasonal and annual scales. An increase in annual mean relative humidity for six river basins has been found in the range of 1–18% of mean per 100 years, while a decrease for three river basins from ? 1 to ? 13% of mean per 100 years was observed, providing a net increase in the study area by 2·4% of mean per 100 years. It is understood that an increase in areal extent of vegetation cover as well as rainfall over the last century has increased the moisture in the atmosphere through enhanced evapotranspiration, which in turn has increased the relative humidity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
High resolution aicraft observations of temperature were made in cloud-air and clear-air at different heights in the lower atmosphere over the Deccan Plateu, India, during the summer monsoon season (June–September) of 1976. Temperature fluctuations in the horizontal at each flight level were utilised for computing the temperature structure parameter (C T 2 ) at that level for studying the hieght dependence ofC T 2 . The results were found to be in agreement with those obtained by other investigators. Also, the height variations ofC T 2 in cloud-air and clear-air during active and weak monsoon conditions are studied. Marked differences were noticed in the behaviour ofC T 2 during active and weak monsoon conditions.  相似文献   

17.
The variability of rainfall in space and time is an essential driver of many processes in nature but little is known about its extent on the sub‐kilometre scale, despite many agricultural and environmental experiments on this scale. A network of 13 tipping‐bucket rain gauges was operated on a 1·4 km2 test site in southern Germany for four years to quantify spatial trends in rainfall depth, intensity, erosivity, and predicted runoff. The random measuring error ranged from 10% to 0·1% in case of 1 mm and 100 mm rainfall, respectively. The wind effects could be well described by the mean slope of the horizon at the stations. Except for one station, which was excluded from further analysis, the relative differences due to wind were in maximum ±5%. Gradients in rainfall depth representing the 1‐km2 scale derived by linear regressions were much larger and ranged from 1·0 to 15·7 mm km?1 with a mean of 4·2 mm km?1 (median 3·3 mm km?1). They mainly developed during short bursts of rain and thus gradients were even larger for rain intensities and caused a variation in rain erosivity of up to 255% for an individual event. The trends did not have a single primary direction and thus level out on the long term, but for short‐time periods or for single events the assumption of spatially uniform rainfall is invalid on the sub‐kilometre scale. The strength of the spatial trend increased with rain intensity. This has important implications for any hydrological or geomorphologic process sensitive to maximum rain intensities, especially when focusing on large, rare events. These sub‐kilometre scale differences are hence highly relevant for environmental processes acting on short‐time scales like flooding or erosion. They should be considered during establishing, validating and application of any event‐based runoff or erosion model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Soil CO2 flux is strongly influenced by precipitation in many ecosystem types, yet knowledge of the effects of precipitation on soil CO2 flux in semi‐arid desert ecosystems remains insufficient, particularly for sandy soils. To address this, we investigated the response of sandy soil CO2 flux to rainfall pulses in a desert ecosystem in northern China during August–September 2011. Significant changes (P < 0.05) were found in diel patterns of soil CO2 flux induced by small (2.1 mm), moderate (12.4 mm) and large (19.7 mm) precipitation events. Further analysis indicated that rainfall pulses modified the response of soil CO2 flux to soil temperature, including hysteresis between soil CO2 flux and soil temperature, with Fs higher when Ts was increasing than when Ts was decreasing, and the linear relationship between them. Moreover, our results showed that rainfall could result in absorption of atmospheric CO2 by soil, possibly owing to mass flow of CO2 induced by a gradient of gas pressure between atmosphere and soil. After each precipitation event, soil CO2 flux recovered exponentially to pre‐rainfall levels with time, with the recovery times exhibiting a positive correlation with precipitation amount. On the basis of the amounts of precipitation that occurred at our site during the measurement period (August–September), the accumulated rain‐induced carbon absorption evaluated for rainy days was 1.068 g C m?2; this corresponds approximately to 0.5–2.1% of the net primary production of a typical desert ecosystem. Thus, our results suggest that rainfall pulses can strongly influence carbon fluxes in desert ecosystems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19–25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12–18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19–25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four homogeneous regions. Thus the slight variations in the characteristics of intraseasonal monsoon rainfall over India is associated with variations in predictive skill of the coupled models and the MME-based predictions of intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations for 2–3 weeks, providing encouraging results. The MME forecast in 2010 is also able to provide useful guidance, well in advance, about an active September associated with a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and also the heavy rainfall over north Pakistan.  相似文献   

20.
David Dunkerley 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3294-3305
The metric or ‘observable’ properties of intra‐event rainfall intermittency (IERI) are quantified using a 10‐year record from arid Fowlers Gap, Australia. Rainfall events were delineated using the minimum inter‐event time (MIT) criterion, using eight values in the range of 1 h – 24 h. Within events, no‐rain periods were defined as corresponding to rainfall rates R < 0.1 mm/h or R < 0.2 mm/h (both less than typical wet‐canopy evaporation rates during rainfall). In this way, rainfall events were subdivided into rain and no‐rain periods. Intermittency was characterised using two measures: the fraction of rainless time within an event, and the duration of the longest rainless period. Events identified using a minimum inter‐event time (MIT) of 24 h included on average 9.4 h of contiguous no‐rain time (47.5% of the mean event duration), and only 6.8 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 51.1% for these events. Events defined with MIT = 6 h (a value commonly adopted in the literature) exhibited a mean of 1.53 h of no‐rain and 9.04 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 13.9% for these events for R < 0.1 mm/h, but reached 39.2% if no‐rain periods were taken as those of <0.2 mm/h. The maximum contiguous no‐rain period for events defined using MIT = 6 h was 10.9 h from an event of 12.6 h duration, and this represents 86.5% of the event duration. Results demonstrate that smaller, shorter, and less intense rainfall events tend to exhibit higher IERI than larger, longer, and more intense events. IERI is relevant to the understanding of land surface processes. Information on the metric properties of IERI in different rainfall types (convective and stratiform) and rainfall climates (arid, maritime, and wet tropical) may prove to have significance for diverse studies in land surface hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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