Continuous measurement of nitrate concentration in a highly event‐responsive agricultural catchment in south‐west of France: is the gain of information useful?

A nitrate sensor has been set up to measure every 10 min the nitrate signal in a stream draining a small agricultural catchment dominated by fertilized crops during a 2‐year study period (2006–2008) in the south‐west of France. An in situ sampling protocol using automatic sampler to monitor flood events have been used to assume a point‐to‐point calibration of the sensor values. The nitrate concentration exhibits nonsystematic concentration and dilution effects during flood events. We demonstrate that the calibrated nitrate sensor signal gathered from the outlet is considered to be a continuous signal using the Nyquist–Shannon sampling theorem. The objectives of this study are to quantify the errors generated by a typical infrequent sampling protocol and to design appropriate sampling strategy according to the sampling objectives. Nitrate concentration signal and flow data are numerically sampled to simulate common sampling frequencies. The total fluxes calculated from the simulated samples are compared with the reference value computed on the continuous signal. Uncertainties are increasing as sampling intervals increase; the method that is not using continuous discharge to compute nitrate fluxes bring larger uncertainty. The dispersion and bias computed for each sampling interval are used to evaluate the uncertainty during each hydrological period. High underestimation is made during flood periods when high‐concentration period is overlooked. On the contrary, high sampling frequencies (from 3 h to 1 day) lead to a systematic overestimation (bias around 3%): highest concentrations are overweighted by the interpolation of the concentration in such case. The in situ sampling protocol generates less than 1% of load estimation error and sample highest concentration peaks. We consider useful such newly emerging field technologies to assess short‐term variations of water quality parameters, to minimize the number of samples to be analysed and to assess the quality state of the stream at any time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is irrigation water price an effective leverage for water management? An empirical study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin

Serious water scarcity, low water-use efficiency, and over-exploitation of underground water have hindered socio-economic development and led to environmental degradation in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. Price leveraging is an important tool in water demand management, and it is considered to be effective in promoting water conservation and improving water use efficiency on the premise that water demand is elastic. In the present study, we examine whether price is an effective and applicable instrument for restraining the increasing demand for agricultural irrigation water in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin and how will it affect farmers’ decisions on irrigation and crop structure. Specifically, the price elasticity of agricultural water demand was estimated based on the irrigation water demand function. The results show that the agricultural irrigation water price is statistically significant, but its elasticity is very low under current low water price. Price leverage cannot play a significant role in the context of the current pricing regime and farmers’ response to price increase is intrinsically weak. To create incentives for conserving water and improving irrigation efficiency, price mechanism should be accompanied with clearly defined and legally enforceable water rights, restricted water quota measures, and reform of water authorities and water-user associations. Furthermore, increases of surface irrigation water price may lead to the over-withdrawal of groundwater, consequently, effective groundwater licensing and levying must take place to limit the total volume of groundwater withdrawal. In all, improving irrigation efficiency through better management and the adoption of water-saving technologies is the ultimate way to deal with the challenges facing irrigated agriculture in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin.     

What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”*

Srinivasan et al. provide an interesting overview of the challenges for long-term socio-hydrological predictions. Although agreeing with most of the statements made, we argue for the need to take socio-hydrological analysis a step further and add some fundamental considerations, especially concerning the crucial importance of many (conscious and unconscious) assumptions made upfront of the modelling exercise. Eventual assumptions of technological determinism need correction: Models are not “value-free”, but uncertain, subjective and a product of the society in which they were shaped. It is important to acknowledge this uncertainty and bias when making decisions based on socio-hydrological models, considering also that these models are “social and political actors” in and by themselves. Furthermore, socio-hydrological models require a transdisciplinary approach, since physical water availability is only one of the boundary conditions for society. Last but not least, interaction with stakeholders remains important to enable understanding of what the variable of interest is.     

Should the Three Gorges Dam be blamed for the extremely low water levels in the middle–lower Yangtze River?

Extremely low water level events have frequently occurred in the middle–lower Yangtze River (MLYR) in recent years (2006–2011). Most of these drought events coincided with the initial operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The TGD was therefore the focus of controversy about the causes of the hydrological droughts of the rivers and lakes of the region. We quantified the effects of the TGD's operation on water levels from 2006 to 2011 using a newly developed hydrodynamic model. The operation of the TGD significantly exacerbated the severe hydrological droughts that occurred in late September to November because of water impoundment, but it increased water levels from April to early June in the MLYR because of the drawdown of TGD water levels. Evidence suggests that the recent extremely low water levels were mainly because of the remarkable decline in inflows to the MLYR resulting from precipitation changes and possible human activities. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the effects of the TGD on downstream rivers and lakes will be intensified in the foreseeable future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deep-bedded ultramafic diatremes in the Missouri River Breaks volcanic field,Montana, USA: 1 km of syn-eruptive subsidence

The ultramafic Eocene Missouri River Breaks volcanic field (MRBVF, Montana, USA) includes over 50 diatremes emplaced in a mostly soft substrate. The current erosion level is 1.3–1.5 km below the pre-eruptive surface, exposing the deep part of the diatreme structures and some dikes. Five representative diatremes are described here; they are 200-375 m across and have sub-vertical walls. Their infill consists mostly of 55-90 % bedded pyroclastic rocks (fine tuffs to coarse lapilli tuffs) with concave-upward bedding, and 45–10 % non-bedded pyroclastic rocks (medium lapilli tuffs to tuff breccias). The latter zones form steep columns 15–135 m in horizontal dimension, which cross-cut the bedded pyroclastic rocks. Megablocks of the host sedimentary formations are also present in the diatremes, some being found 1 km or more below their sources. The diatreme infill contains abundant lithic clasts and ash-sized particles, indicating efficient fragmentation of magma and country rocks. The spherical to sub-spherical juvenile clasts are non-vesicular. They are accompanied by minor accretionary lapilli and armored lapilli. The deposits of dilute pyroclastic density currents are locally observed. Our main interpretations are as follows: (1) the observations strongly support phreatomagmatic explosions as the energy source for fragmentation and diatreme excavation; (2) the bedded pyroclastic rocks were deposited on the crater floor, and subsided by 1.0–1.3 km to their current location, with subsidence taking place mostly during the eruption; (3) the observed non-bedded pyroclastic columns were created by debris jets that punched through the bedded pyroclastic material; the debris jets did not empty the mature diatreme, occupying only a fraction of its width, and some debris jets probably did not reach the crater floor; (4) the mature diatreme was nearly always filled and buttressed by pyroclastic debris at depth – there was never a 1.3–1.5-km-deep empty hole with sub-vertical walls, otherwise the soft substrate would have collapsed inward, which it only did near the surface, to create the megablocks. We infer that syn-eruptive subsidence shifted down bedded pyroclastic material and shallow sedimentary megablocks by 0.8–1.1 km or more, after which limited post-eruptive subsidence occurred. This makes the MRBVF diatremes an extreme end-member case of syn-eruptive subsidence in the spectrum of possibilities for maar-diatreme volcanoes worldwide.     

What should these rivers look like? Historical range of variability and human impacts in the Colorado Front Range,USA

Historical range of variability (HRV) describes the range of temporal and spatial variations in river variables such as flow regime or channel planform prior to intensive human alteration of the ecosystem. In mountainous river networks, HRV is most usefully applied to spatially differentiated geomorphic process domains with distinctive form and process. Using the Colorado Front Range as an example, three examples of how knowledge of HRV can assist river management and restoration are discussed. The examples involve instream wood load and channel morphology, beaver colonies and valley‐bottom form and process, and flow thresholds in regulated rivers. The question of what a river should look like – that is, what range of process and form the river included prior to intensive human alteration – can be addressed by (i) placing the river within a process domain, (ii) establishing correlations between form parameters that can be remotely sensed and reach‐scale process and form, so that the spatial extent, connectivity, and rarity of process domains within a river network or a region can be quickly assessed, (iii) inferring characteristics of the river prior to intensive alteration by documenting characteristics of the least altered reference rivers and by using proxy indicators of pre‐alteration conditions, and (iv) establishing process thresholds that must be exceeded to maintain form (e.g. flow thresholds to mobilize bed sediment). Once this context has been established, resource managers can better evaluate the options for restoring altered riverine form and function. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What factors drive seasonal variation of phytoplankton,protozoans and metazoans on leaves of Posidonia oceanica and in the water column along the coast of the Kerkennah Islands,Tunisia?

A hierarchical sampling design was used during two seasons (spring (May) and summer (August) 2006). Using this design, three regions of the Kerkennah Islands (Tunisia) were analyzed for the distribution of microalgal, protozoan and metazoan assemblages in two different habitats: (1) the water column; and (2) on Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile (P. oceanica) leaves in shallow meadows. A total of 85 species were obtained. In particular, the diatom family Naviculacea consistently dominated (both numerically and in their diversity) the micro-algae in all regions for the two seasons of the study and in both habitats. In the Chergui region, which is the closest area to a source of impact, fast growing centric diatoms (such as Thalassionema, Rhizosolenia, Striatella, and Skeletonema) were identified as indicators of high organic matter and nutrient enrichment in water bodies. Protozoan and metazoan species abundance in the different regions indicate a non-random spatial and temporal distribution of the epiphytic organisms on leaves of P. oceanica that correlated with phytoplankton. The results also indicate that (1) the abundance of micro- and macroorganisms in the three regions were higher on P. oceanica leaves than in the water column for the two seasons; (2) environmental factors such as currents and tide influenced assemblages; and (3) the highest abundance was due to direct exposure to the polluted coast of Sfax and the effect of tidal asymmetries generating nutrient-rich inputs from the city.     

Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi‐arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral‐Salinas aquifer,SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?

The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rock‐protecting seaweed? Experimental evidence of bioprotection in the intertidal zone

Biogeomorphological processes are an important component of dynamic intertidal systems. On rocky shores, the direct contribution of microorganisms, plants and animals to weathering and erosion is well known. There is also increasing evidence that organisms can alter rock breakdown indirectly, by moderating temperature and moisture regimes at the rock–air interface. These influences have been purported to represent mechanisms of bioprotection, by buffering microclimatic fluctuations associated with weathering processes such as wetting and drying and salt crystallization. However, virtually nothing has been done to test whether microclimatic buffering translates to differences in actual rock breakdown rates. Here we report a preliminary laboratory experiment to assess how an artificial canopy (chosen to represent seaweed) affects mechanical rock breakdown. Using a simplified and accelerated thermal regime based on field data from a rocky shore platform in southern England, UK, we find that breakdown (mineral debris release) of mudstone covered with a canopy is reduced by as much as 79% relative to bare rock after around 100 thermal cycles. Reduction in rock surface hardness (measured using an Equotip device) was also greater for bare rock (17%) compared to covered rock (10%) over this period. Measurements of salt crystal formation indicate that the mechanism driving these differences was a reduction in the frequency of crystallization events, via moisture retention and shading of the rock surface. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of electronic and mechanical Schmidt hammers in the context of exposure‐age dating: are Q‐ and R‐values interconvertible?

Application of Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) to landforms has substantially increased in recent years. The original mechanical Schmidt hammer records R‐(rebound) values. Although the newly introduced electronic Schmidt hammer (SilverSchmidt) facilitates greatly improved data processing, it measures surface hardness differently, recording Q‐(velocity) values that are not a priori interconvertible with R‐values. This study is the first to compare the performance of both instruments in the context of field‐based exposure‐age dating with a particular focus on the interconvertibility of R‐values and Q‐values. The study was conducted on glacially polished pyroxene‐granulite gneiss, Jotunheimen, southern Norway. Results indicate that mean Q‐values are consistently 8–10 units higher than mean R‐values over the range of values normally encountered in the application of SHD to glacial and periglacial landforms. A convenient conversion factor of ±10 units may, therefore, be appropriate for all but the softest rock types close to the technical resolution of the instruments. The electronic Schmidt hammer should therefore be regarded as a useful complement and potential replacement for the mechanical Schmidt hammer. Conversion of published R‐values data to Q‐values requires, however, careful control and documentation of instrument calibration. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The nutrient forms, cycling and exchange flux in the sediment and overlying water system in lakes from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

This paper is a review of research works concerning the nutrient transportation, transformation and exchange between water, sediment and biota in the lakes from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River conducted in the context of project entitled "The Processes and Mechanism of Lake Eutrophication in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River". All the lakes from this area are shallow lakes. According to the typical lake site research, the lakes from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River have a higher baseline of nutrition in the history. Normally the trophic status of these lakes can be categorized into medium-trophic or eutrophic. Human activities have been enhanced during the last decades, which speed up the lake eutrophic process. Lake eutrophication control needs to reduce not only the external nutrient inputs from watershed but also the internal loading from the sediments. Investigations revealed that the lake sediments in this area are considerablly high in nutrition in which at most about 30% of phosphorus exists in the form of bio-available in the sediment. The surface sediment will exert great effects on the nutrient exchange between water-sediment interface via adsorption and release of nutrient. The nutrient release from the sediment in these shallow lakes is mainly in two ways, i.e. in the undisturbed condition the nutrient is released through diffusion created by the nutrient gradient from sediment to overlying water; whereas in disturbed condition, the nutrient release is determined by the hydrodynamic forcing intensity and the sediment resuspension. Metallic elements such as the iron, manganese and aluminium and the aerobic-anaerobic ambience will affect the release of nutrients. The disturbed release will increase the total nutrients in the water column significantly in the short period. At the beginning of sediment resuspension, the dissolved nutrient concentration will increase. This increase will be damped if the ferric oxide and aluminium are rich in sediment because of the adsorption and flocculation. This means that the lakes have capability of eliminating the nutrient loadings. Investigations for the lakes from middle and down stream of Yangtze River have suggested that most lakes have the self-cleaning capability. Dredging the control of the internal loading, therefore, is only applicable to the small lakes or undisturbed bays which normally are situated nearby the city or town and rich in organic materials in the sediment. In addition, the strong reduction condition and weak aeration of these lakes and bays make these small lakes and bays release much more bio-available nutrient and without much self-eliminating capability. Moreover, eutrophication induced algal bloom in these lakes will change the pH of water, which further induces the increase in the nutrient release. In turn, the increase in nutrient release promotes the growth of phytoplankton and results in severe algal bloom. For the heavily polluted water, research suggests that the biomass of bacteria and alkaline phosphatase activity will be higher corresponding to the higher concentration of nutrients, which accelerates the nutrient recycling between water, sediment and biota. Quick recycling of nutrient, in turn, promotes the production and biomass growth of microorganism and leads to more severe eutrophication. Further research work should focus on the nutrient transformation mechanism and the effects of microbial loop on the eutrophication.     

What is the future fate of estuaries given nutrient over-enrichment,freshwater diversion and low flows?

Freshwater inflow is central to the definition of estuaries and if we lose control of the quantity of freshwater flow or discharge (including seasonal timing) to estuaries, then freshwater water quality has the potential to become a moot issue in estuarine ecosystems (Definition of estuaries: estuaries (aestus = tide) are physico-chemically, geomorphically, and biotically diverse ecosystems. Although numerous definitions of estuaries exist, we prefer the following: an estuary is a partially enclosed coastal water body in which freshwater runoff, often seasonally and episodically pulsed, dilutes salty ocean water and the biotic structure is influenced by dynamic tidal action and associated salinity gradients and reef building organisms and wetlands influence development and evolution of ecological structure and function (see for expanded definition)).     

Hydrochemistry and source of high fluoride in groundwater of the Nairobi area,Kenya / Hydrochimie et origine des fortes concentrations en fluorure dans l'eau souterraine de la région de Nairobi,au Kenya

Abstract

This study aims to identify the hydrogeochemical processes influencing the high fluoride concentrations in groundwater of the Nairobi area, Kenya. For this purpose 16 groundwater samples were collected and analysed. Fluoride concentrations above the WHO standard are found in the downstream areas. The high F^? concentrations are correlated with high sodium and pH and low Ca²⁺ concentrations. Weathering of sodium-rich alkaline igneous rocks causes a pH increase resulting in an increase in HCO₃ ^? and CO₃ ^2- by dissolution of CO₂. Groundwater becomes oversaturated compared to calcite and calcite precipitation occurs, leading to a decrease in Ca²⁺. This causes a sub-saturation with respect to fluorite and dissolution of fluorite increases the F^? concentration. These reactions were modelled using the PHREEQC model and the results showed a good agreement with the measured groundwater quality, indicating that the proposed reactions are plausible for explaining the observed concentrations in groundwater.     

Groundwater–surface water interactions in a river estuary and the importance of geomorphology: Insights from hydraulic,thermal and geophysical observations

This study presents the groundwater flow and salinity dynamics along a river estuary, the Werribee River in Victoria, Australia, at local and regional scales. Along a single reach, salinity across a transverse section of the channel (~80 m long) with a point bar was monitored using time-lapse electrical resistivity (ER) through a tidal cycle. Groundwater fluxes were concurrently estimated by monitoring groundwater levels and temperature profiles. Regional porewater salinity distribution was mapped using 6-km long longitudinal ER surveys during summer and winter. The time-lapse ER across the channel revealed a static electrically resistive zone on the side of the channel with a pronounced cut bank. Upward groundwater flux and steep vertical temperature gradients with colder temperatures deeper within the sediment suggested a stable zone of fresh groundwater discharge along this cut bank area. Generally, less resistive zones were observed at the shallow portion of the inner meander bank and at the channel center. Subsurface temperatures close to surface water values, vertical head gradients indicating both upward and downward groundwater flux, and higher porewater salinity closer to that of estuary water suggest strong hyporheic circulation in these zones. The longitudinal surveys revealed higher ER values along deep and sinuous segments and low ER values in shallow and straighter reaches in both summer and winter; these patterns are consistent with the local channel-scale observations. This study highlights the interacting effects of channel morphology, broad groundwater–surface water interaction, and hyporheic exchange on porewater salinity dynamics underneath and adjacent to a river estuary.     

Magma–ice–sediment interactions and the origin of lava/hyaloclastite sequences in the Síða formation, South Iceland

Products of subglacial volcanism can illuminate reconstructions of paleo-environmental conditions on both local and regional scales. Competing interpretations of Pleistocene conditions in south Iceland have been proposed based on an extensive sequence of repeating lava-and-hyaloclastite deposits in the Síða district. We propose here a new eruptive model and refine the glacial environment during eruption based on field research and analytical data for the Síða district lava/hyaloclastite units. Field observations from this and previous studies reveal a repeating sequence of cogenetic lava and hyaloclastite deposits extending many kilometers from their presumed eruptive source. Glasses from lava selvages and unaltered hyaloclastites have very low H₂O, S, and CO₂ concentrations, indicating significant degassing at or close to atmospheric pressure prior to quenching. We also present a scenario that demonstrates virtual co-emplacement of the two eruptive products. Our data and model results suggest repeated eruptions under thin ice or partially subaerial conditions, rather than eruption under a thick ice sheet or subglacial conditions as previously proposed.     

Dreissena polymorpha (Bivalvia: Dreissenidae) in the Neva Estuary (eastern Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea): is it a biofilter or source for pollution?

The zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, a ponto-caspian byssate bivalve, forms permanent dense populations along the shoreline in the northern part of the inner Neva Estuary. Its total biomass along a 17 km transect reached 4980 tons (mean 1060 g m(-2)) in 2000 and 6510 tons (mean 1385 g m(-2)) in 2001. Being persistent and abundant, the zebra mussel populations played an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling in inner Neva River Estuary. The D. polymorpha population released up to 514 kg day(-1) of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and was, therefore, a major source of bioavailable nutrients in the area. Mussel beds were also efficient biofilters and precipitate 15,020 kg day(-1) of particulate organic matter during the warm season. About 50% of precipitated matter had a relatively long retention time, being utilized within zebra mussel populations, while the rest was deposited as faeces and pseudofaeces and served as a source for organic pollution to the eastern Gulf of Finland.     

Two contrasting petrotectonic domains in the Kokchetav megamélange (north Kazakhstan): Difference in exhumation mechanisms of ultrahigh‐pressure crustal rocks,or a result of subsequent deformation?

Abstract In northern Kazakhstan the WNW striking Kokchetav megamélange includes different crustal sequences with high‐pressure/ultrahigh‐pressure (HP/UHP) remnants of their 540–520 Ma subduction metamorphism. Two domains separated by the north‐east trending Chaglinka fault are distinguished. The western domain exhibits NE–SW structures within a single Kumdy–Kol megaunit of diamond‐bearing UHP metasediments and high‐temperature (HT) eclogites. The eastern domain consists of the composite Kulet megaunit with the Kulet UHP unit (coesite‐bearing metasediments, whiteschists and eclogites), the Enbek–Berlyk medium‐pressure (MP) unit (kyanite‐bearing, high‐alumina rocks with interleaved coronitic metagabbro), and ortho‐ and paragneisses with eclogites and amphibolites included. All eclogites in the eastern domain are of the relatively low temperature (LT) type. Sillimanite is common and appears after kyanite in the sheared MP unit. A regional and moderately ESE plunging linear fabric coincides with the fold‐axis of the foliation poles from the eastern domain. Whether this also reflects a regional top to the WNW transport, as inferred from the dextral strike‐slip on steeply to SSW dipping foliation, needs further study. Top to the WNW shear is shown by weakly inclined low pressure (LP) cordierite rocks that flank the eastern domain in the south. Some new ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar mica cooling ages (519, 521 Ma) from the Kulet UHP micaschists reflect the same early stage evolutionary event as was previously shown for the Kumdy–Kol UHP rocks (515, 517 Ma) in the west. Similar ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar ages (500, 517 Ma) are recorded by micas and amphibole that outline a top to NNW shear fabric in the non‐subducted Proterozoic basement, north of the megamélange. A 447 Ma overprint of the MP sequences is considered to reflect the strike‐slip deformation with sillimanite and the reworking of an early kyanite‐bearing tectonite. Biotites from the LP cordierite rocks yielded approximately 400 Ma ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar ages. In case they reflect the WNW shear deformation, the latter is considered to be associated with a regional granite magmatism (420–460 Ma) extending south of the eastern domain. In their present different structural domains the Kulet and Kumdy–Kol UHP units display a similar early stage event. Subsequent LP deformation, which is likely to be associated with regional granite magmatism (420–460 Ma), is assumed to have obliterated any common or uniform early exhumation structure for the whole megamélange. The north‐east structured Kumdy–Kol domain is assumed to have preserved the most information about the early stage exhumation. This domain is at an angle to the regional WNW strike of the megamélange.     

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca,Perú)

Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini ( 2012 ) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Moving socio-hydrologic modelling forward: unpacking hidden assumptions,values and model structure by engaging with stakeholders: reply to “What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology?”*

The arguments presented in Melsen et al. advance ideas in the “Panta Rhei” decade (2013–2022) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which focuses on change in hydrology and society. While we reiterate that, despite acknowledged shortcomings, the enterprise of integrating societal feedbacks into hydrological models is beneficial in prediction and adaptive management, we also agree with the sentiments of the authors. In response, we offer concrete steps the socio-hydrologic community can take to educate modellers to become aware about unconscious biases embedded in model structure and clearly communicate assumptions. We stress the need for “knowledge brokers” that can help modellers work with stakeholders, instead of doing everything themselves. We also caution, however, against the danger of over-reaching. Young scholars already pay a big price by having to master both the natural and social sciences. As coupled human–water problems increase in societal importance, along with calls for more holistic thinking, we also need to promote an academic culture that rewards reaching across the aisle.