Freshwater flow to the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary over nine decades (Part 1): Trend evaluation

The San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary and its upstream watershed have been highly modified since exploration and settlement by Europeans in the mid‐18th century. Although these hydrologic alterations supported the growth of California's economy to the eighth largest in the world, they have been accompanied by significant declines in native aquatic species and subsequent efforts to reverse these declines through flow management. To inform ongoing deliberations on management of freshwater flows to the estuary, we examined a recent nine‐decade hydrologic record to evaluate seasonal and annual trends in reported Delta outflow. Statistically significant trends were observed in seasonal outflows, with decreasing trends observed in 4 months (February, April, May, and November) and increasing trends observed in 2 months (July and August). Trend significance in early‐to‐mid autumn (September and October) is ambiguous due to uncertainty associated with in‐Delta agricultural water use. In spite of increasing water use over the period examined, we found no statistically significant annual trend in Delta outflow, a result likely due to large inter‐annual variability. Linkages between outflow trends and changes in upstream flows and coincident developments such as reservoir construction and operation, out‐of‐basin imports and exports, and expansion of irrigated agriculture are discussed. To eliminate inter‐annual variability as a factor, change attribution is explored using modelled flows and fixed climatology in a companion paper.     

Tidally‐averaged flows in the interior Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta: Trends and change attribution

The hydrology of the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary (the Delta) has been significantly modified over the past 150 years to serve a variety of human needs for water supply and food production, albeit with adverse ecological impacts. These adverse impacts, in concert with evolving societal values, have motivated change in the estuary's water management to promote ecosystem restoration goals while continuing to support human uses. Understanding historical flow patterns, as well as the environmental functions provided by these flow patterns, is critical to restoration planning. Building upon previous work on outflow trends from the Delta to San Francisco Bay, this paper evaluates historical trends in key interior Delta flows spanning nine decades (1922–2016) and presents an attribution of these trends to various anthropogenic drivers. We reconstructed historical time series records at four key locations in the interior of the Delta; these time series represent tidally‐averaged flows that are intensively managed and are of great importance to the beneficial uses of water in the region. We derived several scenario‐based flow time series at these same four locations to assist in attributing change to a variety of drivers, including reservoir and export pumping operations, in‐Delta barrier and gate operations, and upstream water diversions. Flow changes were measured relative to 1920‐level land use and water management conditions. We find the four interior Delta locations to have distinct seasonal flow trends and, in general, unique responses to various drivers of change. Our work highlights the complex nature of historical flow changes in a highly‐managed estuarine ecosystem, and the types of modifications that would be necessary to reverse these changes.     

Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long‐term persistence

The annual timing of river flows might indicate changes that are climate related. In this study, trends in timing of low flows for the Reference Hydrometric Basin Network were investigated under three different hypotheses namely: independence, short‐term persistence (STP) and long‐term persistence (LTP). Both summer and winter time series were characterized with scaling behaviour providing strong evidence of LTP. The Mann–Kendall trend test was modified to account for STP and LTP, and used to detect trends in timing of low flows. It was found that considering STP and LTP resulted in a significant decrease in the number of detected trends. Numerical analysis showed that the timing of summer 7‐day low flows exhibited significant trends in 16, 9 and 7% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Timing of summer low flow shifted toward later dates in western Canada, whereas the majority of stations in the east half of the country (except Atlantic Provinces) experienced a shift toward earlier dates. Timing of winter low flow experienced significant trends in 20, 12, and 6% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Shift in timing of winter low flow toward earlier dates was dominant all over the country where it shifted toward earlier dates in up to 3/4 of time series with significant trends. There are local patterns of upward significant/insignificant trends in southeast, southwest and northern Canada. This study shows that timing of low flows in Canada is time dependent; however, addressing the full complexity of memory properties (i.e. short term vs long term) of a natural process is beyond the scope of this study. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960–2007

Daily temperature and precipitation data from 136 stations of Southwest China (SWC) during the last five decades, from 1960 to 2007, were analysed to determine the spatial and temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall trend test. Results show that SWC has become warmer over the last five decades, especially in the recent 20–25 years. The increasing trends in winter months are more significant than those in the months of other seasons, and spatially Tibet, Hengduan mountains area and west Sichuan Plateau have larger temperature trend in magnitude than the other regions have. A downward trend was detected in Sichuan Basin also, but the region with cooler temperature was shrinking due to the statistically significant increasing trend of temperature after 1990s. Both annual and seasonal means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend, but trend magnitude of minimum temperature was larger than that of maximum temperature, resulting in the decrease of diurnal temperature range for SWC in the last 50 years. Annual precipitation showed slightly and statistically insignificant increasing trend, but statistically significant increasing trend has been detected in winter season while autumn witnessed a statistically significant decreasing trend. The results could be a reference for the planning and management of water resources under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of river‐to‐lake backflow on the hydrodynamics of a large floodplain lake system (Poyang Lake,China)

Backflow, the temporary reversal of discharge at the outlet of a lake, is an important mechanism controlling flow and transport in many connected river–lake systems. This study used statistical methods to examine long‐term variations and primary causal factors of backflow from the Yangtze River to a laterally connected, large floodplain lake (Poyang Lake, China). Additionally, the effects of backflow on the lake hydrology were explored using a physically based hydrodynamic model and a particle‐tracking model. Although backflow into Poyang Lake occurs frequently, with an average of 16 backflow events per year, and varies greatly in magnitude between years, statistical analysis indicates that both the frequency and magnitude of backflow reduced significantly during 2001–2010 relative to the previous period of 1960–2000. The ratio of Poyang Lake catchment inflows to Yangtze River discharge can be used as an indication of the daily occurrence of backflow, which is most likely to occur during periods when this ratio is lower than 5%. Statistical analysis also indicates that the Yangtze River discharge is the main controlling factor of backflow during July to October, rather than catchment inflows to the lake. Hydrodynamic modelling reveals that, in general, backflow disturbs the normal northward water flow direction in Poyang Lake and transports mass ~20 km southward into the lake. The effects of backflow on flow direction, water velocities and water levels propagate to virtually its upstream extremity. The current study represents a first attempt to explore backflow and causal factors for a highly dynamic floodplain lake system. An improved understanding of Poyang Lake backflow is critical for guiding future strategies to manage the lake, its water quality and ecosystem value, given proposals to modify the lake–river connectivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative contributions of stream concentration,stream discharge and shoreline load to base cation trends in Red Chalk and Harp lakes,south‐central Ontario,Canada

We evaluated the importance and contributions of changes in stream base cation concentration, stream discharge and lake shoreline load to changes in base cation concentrations in two small inland lakes in south‐central Ontario. The shoreline load from ungauged drainage areas was calculated with a mass balance equation. An evaluation method based on the partial Mann–Kendall test quantified the relative contributions of these three explanatory drivers to the observed trends in lake concentration of Ca, K, Mg and Na. Over a 29‐year period (1978–2006) at Red Chalk and Harp lakes, declines in stream concentration and discharge were correlated with the declines in lake concentrations of all base cations (except for Na in Harp Lake), with contributions of 21–81% from stream concentration and 12–58% from discharge, whereas the shoreline load had little contribution to observed trends. The observed unusual increase in Na concentration at Harp Lake was correlated with the increase in stream Na concentration and additional load from road salts, with the shoreline load contributing a substantial 37%. These results may be applicable to numerous inland lakes with similar site conditions, including lakes found on the Canadian Shield. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation of the rainwater harvesting potential (1971–2010) on the Chinese Loess Plateau using the VIC model

Rainwater harvesting could increase the resilience of ecosystems on the Loess Plateau and thus ensure the sustainability of livelihoods that depend on them. As such, it is a key component of strategies for adapting to global climate change. In this study, we used a new method to quantify the rainwater harvesting potential (RWHP) across the whole Loess Plateau and to characterize its spatial and temporal variation over the last four decades on the basis of the variable infiltration capacity model. It was found that that the mean RWHP of the study region was 731.10 × 10⁸ m³, and the average water layer thickness was 114.34 mm. There is considerable scope for rainwater harvesting across the Loess Plateau as a whole, to the extent that it could potentially provide enough water to implement the ‘Grain for Green’ Project. The annual average RWHP decreased slightly from 1971 to 2010, and Hurst exponent analysis indicated that this trend will exhibit long‐term persistence. The annual RWHP was highest in the southeast of the Loess Plateau and lowest in the northwest. Areas with high RWHP values tended to be clustered around the middle reach of the Yellow River. For most areas, there was no significant change between 1971 and 2010. Those areas for which there was a significant decrease in RWHP were primarily located around the upper–middle reaches of the Weihe River, the upper reach of Jinghe River, the eastern Guanzhong Plain, the Qinhe River watershed and the area around Dongsheng. Quantitative assessments of RWHP are likely to be useful for guiding the development and use of innovative rainwater harvesting technologies around the world and could help to relieve the problems caused by water shortages on the Loess Plateau while simultaneously eliminate the major cause of soil erosion. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dredge petrology of the boninite‐ and adakite‐bearing Hahajima Seamount of the Ogasawara (Bonin) forearc: An ophiolite or a serpentinite seamount?§

Abstract During the Hakuho‐Maru KH03‐3 cruise and the Tansei‐Maru KT04‐28 cruise, more than 1000 rock samples were dredged from several localities over the Hahajima Seamount, a northwest–southeast elongated, rectangular massif, 60 km × 30 km in size, with a flat top approximately 1100 m deep. The rocks included almost every lithology commonly observed among the on‐land ophiolite outcrops. Volcanic rocks included mid‐oceanic ridge basalt (MORB)‐like tholeiitic basalt and dolerite, calc‐alkaline basalt and andesite, boninite, high‐Mg adakitic andesite, dacite, and minor rhyolite. Gabbroic rocks included troctolite, olivine gabbro, olivine gabbronorite (with inverted pigeonite), gabbro, gabbronorite, norite, and hornblende gabbro, and showed both MORB‐type and island arc‐type mineralogies. Ultramafic rocks were mainly depleted mantle harzburgite (spinel Cr? 50–80) and its serpentinized varieties, with some cumulate dunite, wehrlite and pyroxenites. This rock assemblage suggests a supra‐subduction zone origin for the Hahajima Seamount. Compilation of the available dredge data indicated that the ultramafic rocks occur in the two northeast–southwest‐oriented belts on the seamount, where serpentinite breccia and gabbro breccia have also developed, but the other areas are free from ultramafic rocks. Although many conical serpentinite seamounts 10 km in size are aligned along the Izu–Ogasawara (Bonin)–Mariana forearc, the Hahajima Seamount may be better interpreted as a fault‐bounded, uplifted massif composed of ophiolitic thrust sheets, resembling the Izki block of the Oman ophiolite in its shape and size. The ubiquitous roundness of the dredged rocks and their thin Mn coating (<2 mm) suggest that the Hahajima Seamount was uplifted above sealevel and wave‐eroded, like the present Macquarie Is., a rare example of ophiolite exposure in an oceanic setting. The Ogasawara Plateau on the Pacific Plate is adjacent to the east of the Hahajima Seamount, and collision and subduction of the plateau may have caused uplift of the forearc ophiolite body.     

A simple rainfall–runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south‐east Spain)

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall–runoff relationship of the 202 km² Teba river catchment, located in semi‐arid south‐eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976–1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years. The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes. The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum. Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isolated Archosaur teeth from the green sandstone capping the Coralline Limestone (Bagh Group) of the Narmada valley: Evidence for the presence of pre‐Late to Late Maastrichtian abelisaurids in India

Recent field prospecting in the Cretaceous sequences of the lower Narmada valley has led to the discovery of three isolated archosaur teeth from the upper part of marine Cretaceous rocks of the Bagh Group. The specimens were recovered by surface prospecting from an oyster‐bearing green sandstone bed occurring at the top of the Coralline Limestone (Coniacian) from a site near Phutibawri village, Dhar District, Madhya Pradesh, India. Of the three teeth recovered from this horizon, two are identified with abelisaurid dinosaurs and the third one with an indeterminate crocodile. The abelisaurid teeth conform to the premaxillary and maxillary tooth morphology of Majungasaurus and Indosuchus. Earlier reports of abelisaurid dinosaurs from India are from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) Lameta Group of Jabalpur, Pisdura (Central India) and Balasinor (Western India) and Upper Cretaceous (Late Maastrichtian) Kallamedu Formation (South India). As no associated age diagnostic fossils are found, the specimens described here are considered to represent pre‐Late to Late Maastrichtian age based on the known ages of the underlying and overlying formations. The new finds, therefore, document stratigraphically the oldest occurrence of abelisaurid dinosaurs known from the Indian subcontinent.