Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin

The Aksu River (the international river between China and Kirghiz) has become the main water source for the Tarim River. It significantly influences the Tarim River's formation, development and evolution. Along with the western region development strategy and the Tarim River basin comprehensive devel-opment and implementation, the research is now focused on the Aksu River basin hydrologic charac-teristic and hydrologic forecast. Moreover, the Aksu River is representative of rivers supplied with gla-cier and snow melt in middle-high altitude arid district. As a result, the research on predicting the river flow of the Aksu River basin has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited hydrometeorological data for the Aksu River basin, we have constructed four hydrologic forecast approaches using the daily scale to simulate and forecast daily runoff of two big branches of the Aksu River basin. The four approaches are the upper air temperature and the daily runoff correlation method, AR(p) runoff forecast model, temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model and the NAM rainfall-runoff model. After comparatively analyzing the simulation results of the four approaches, we discovered that the temperature and precipitation revised AR(p) model, which needs less hydrological and meteorological data and is more predictive, is suitable for the short-term runoff forecast of the Aksu River basin. This research not only offers a foundation for the Aksu River and Tarim Rivers' hydrologic forecast, flood prevention, control and the entire basin water collocation, but also provides the hydrologic forecast reference approach for other arid ungauged basins.     

Initial abstraction and curve numbers for semiarid watersheds in Southeastern Arizona

The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) estimates of direct runoff from rainfall for semiarid catchments can be inaccurate. Investigation of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) (Southeastern Arizona) and its ten nested catchments determined that the inaccuracy is due to the original SCS ratio (λ) of 0.2 between initial abstraction and maximum potential retention. Sensitivity analyses indicate that runoff estimation can be very sensitive to the initial abstraction ratio, especially for relatively low rainfall amount and for watersheds covered by deep, coarse, and porous soil, conditions that dominate many semiarid watersheds worldwide. Changing the ratio of initial abstraction to the maximum potential retention to optimal values ranging from 0.01 to 0.53 for different Walnut Gulch catchments improved runoff estimates. The greater the channel area and the finer the soil, the smaller the initial abstraction ratio is. The variation of the initial abstraction ratio for the WGEW is due to the variation of maximum potential retention and initial abstraction, which are channel area and soil‐dependent parameters. The greater the channel area, the higher the maximum potential retention S is, and the coarser the soil, the larger the initial abstraction I_a is. In addition, the effect of initial abstraction ratio on runoff estimation increases with decreasing CN. Thus, impacts of initial abstraction ratio on runoff estimation should be considered, especially for semiarid watersheds where the CN is usually low. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying and simulating stormwater runoff in watersheds

We developed the Stormwater Runoff Modeling System (SWARM) based on curve number and unit hydrograph methods of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service. SWARM models single events, targets watersheds fitting easily within hydrologic units with 12‐digit codes, and has been calibrated for low‐gradient topography of the Southeast coastal plain. We established protocols; made changes related to peak rate factors, travel time formulas, curve numbers, and the initial abstraction ratio; and then tested the output with multi‐site validation using U.S. Geological Survey measurements of discharge and rainfall. Validation results from both undeveloped and developed watersheds support the robustness of our system in quantifying and simulating runoff: rainfall to runoff differences between measured and simulated volumes ranged from 3 to 11%; r² for hydrograph curves ranged from 0.82 to 0.98. SWARM can be a useful tool for scientific research and for coastal resource management and decision making in the Southeast coastal plain specifically and also may be applied to other areas by recalibrating parameters and modifying calculation templates. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining a rainfall–runoff model and a regionalization approach for flood and water resource assessment in the western Po Valley,Italy

ABSTRACT

Selecting the best structure and parameterization of rainfall–runoff models is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors. In this study, the “Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo” (MISDc) was tested on 63 mountainous catchments in the western Po Valley (Italy) and the optimal model parameters were regionalized using different strategies. The model performance was evaluated through several indexes analysing hydrological regime, high-flow condition and flow–duration curve (FDC). In general, MISDc provides a good fit behaviour with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency index greater than 0.5 for 100% and 84% of cases for calibration and validation, respectively. Concerning the regionalization, spatial proximity approach is the most accurate solution obtaining satisfactory performance. Lastly, the predicted FDCs showed an excellent similarity with the observed ones. Results encourage to apply MISDc over the study area for flood forecasting and for assessing water resources availability thanks to the modest computational efforts and data requirements.     

Temporal patterns and controls on runoff magnitude and solution chemistry of urban catchments in the semiarid southwestern United States

Urban expansion and the scarcity of water supplies in arid and semiarid regions have increased the importance of urban runoff to localized water resources. However, urban catchment responses to precipitation are poorly understood in semiarid regions where intense rainfall often results in large runoff events during the short summer monsoon season. To evaluate how urban runoff quantity and quality respond to rainfall magnitude and timing, we collected stream stage data and runoff samples throughout the 2007 and 2008 summer monsoons from four ephemeral drainages in Tucson, Arizona. Antecedent rainfall explained 20% to 30% of discharge (mm) and runoff ratio in the least impervious (22%) catchment but was not statistically related to hydrologic responses at more impervious sites. Regression models indicated that rainfall depth, imperviousness and their combined effect control discharge and runoff ratios (p < 0.01, r² = 0.91 and 0.75, respectively). In contrast, runoff quality did not vary with imperviousness or catchment size. Rainfall depth and duration, time since antecedent rainfall and event and cumulative discharge controlled runoff hydrochemistry and resulted in five specific solute response patterns: (i) strong event and seasonal solute mobilization (solute flush), (ii) event chemostasis and strong seasonal flush, (iii) event chemostasis and weak seasonal flush, (iv) event and seasonal chemostasis and (v) late seasonal flush. Our results indicate that hydrologic responses of semiarid catchments are controlled by rainfall partitioning at the event scale, whereas wetting magnitude, frequency and timing alter solute stores readily available for transport and control temporal runoff quality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil moisture and rainfall intensity thresholds for runoff generation in southwestern Wisconsin agricultural watersheds

The goal of this study was to improve understanding of the factors that influence runoff generation during non‐frozen ground periods in small agricultural watersheds in southwestern Wisconsin where the landscapes are controlled by dolostone bedrock in order to provide agricultural producers with a manure management tool. Six small watersheds (ranging from 6 to 17 ha) within two southwestern Wisconsin farm sites (Discovery Farms Program (DFP) and Pioneer Farm (PF)) were instrumented, and surface runoff was continuously monitored from 2004 to 2007. The soils in all watersheds were formed in deep (~1 m) loessial sites. A direct‐plant management strategy and corn‐soybean crop rotation were utilized within watersheds at DFP. A conventional tillage system (chisel plow in the fall followed by soil finisher in the spring) and a corn‐oat‐alfalfa crop rotation were utilized within watersheds at PF. At PF, the amount of precipitation leaving the landscape as surface runoff (1.8%) was two times greater compared to DFP (0.9%), indicating that the direct‐plant management system was better at retaining precipitation than the chisel plow/soil finisher system. Using breakpoint regression analysis, a non‐linear response in runoff generation with antecedent soil moisture (ASM) was observed with a threshold ASM of 0.39 cm³cm^?3 (approximately 80% of total porosity) for all six watersheds. Below this threshold, runoff coefficients were near zero. Above this threshold, runoff coefficients increased with ASM. A non‐linear response in runoff generation with maximum 30 min rainfall intensity (I30) was also observed, and threshold I30 values increased as ASM decreased and as crop cover increased. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regionalisation of hydrological responses under land-use change and variable data quality

ABSTRACT

Estimating river flows at ungauged sites is generally recognised as an important area of research. In countries or regions with rapid land development and sparse hydrological gauging networks, three particular challenges may arise—data scarcity, data quality, and hydrological non-stationarity. Using data from 44 gauged sub-catchments of the upper Ping catchment in northern Thailand from the period 1995–2006, three relevant flow response indices (runoff coefficient, base flow index and seasonal elasticity of flow) were regionalised by regression against available catchment properties. The runoff coefficient was the most successfully regionalised, followed by base flow index and lastly the seasonal elasticity. The non-stationarity (represented by the differences between two 6-year sub-periods) was significant both in the flow response indices and in land use indices; however relationships between the two sets of indices were weak. The regression equations derived from regionalisation were not helpful in predicting the non-stationarity in the flow indices except somewhat for the runoff coefficient. A partly subjective data quality scoring system was devised, and showed the clear influence of rainfall and flow data quality on regionalisation uncertainty. Recommendations towards improving data support for hydrological regionalisation in Thailand include more relevant soils databases, improved records of abstractions and investment in the gauge network. Widening of the regionalisation beyond the upper Ping and renewed efforts at using remotely sensed rainfall data are other possible ways forward.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Wagener     

Green‐Ampt Curve‐Number mixed procedure as an empirical tool for rainfall–runoff modelling in small and ungauged basins

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method is a popular rainfall–runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS‐CN is a simple and valuable approach to quantify the total streamflow volume generated by storm rainfall, but its use is not appropriate for estimating the sub‐daily incremental rainfall excess. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green‐Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as Curve Number for Green‐Ampt (CN4GA), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS‐CN method. For a given storm, the computed SCS‐CN total net rainfall amount is employed to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA model. The proposed procedure is evaluated by analysing 100 rainfall–runoff events that were observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears to provide encouraging results for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, better agreement with the observed hydrographs than the classic SCS‐CN method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A continuous simulation model for design-hydrograph estimation in small and ungauged watersheds

Abstract

A detailed investigation of the behaviour of various hydraulic parameters, using data from rivers in Greece, was conducted in order to explore the universality of features that many natural streams are believed to have in common. Analysis of vertical profiles of temporal mean of horizontal velocities (u) in the longitudinal (river flow) direction and of transverse profiles of depth-mean longitudinal velocities (U) estimated from these vertical profiles, measured at 232 cross-sections of several rivers in Greece, provided valuable information: on the distribution of local roughness coefficients (n_i ) along the wetted perimeter of the cross-sections examined; on the shape of u profiles; on the ratio of maximum to mean cross-sectional velocity, V_max/V_m , and its relation to a dimensionless entropy parameter, M; on the shape of U profiles; and on the normalized intensity, r, of the spatial departure of u velocities from V_m . The similarities among the quantities (u, U, n, V_max/V_m , M, r) analysed in this study and in pertinent literature reveal that the rivers examined exhibit many of the basic features, of rather universal character, shown by other rivers (all over the world) having different geometric and/or other characteristics (aspect ratios, bottom roughness, flow kinematics, etc.). Corresponding differences are also described and explained.     

Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia

Abstract

The Baker basin (27 000 km²) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542.     

Weather types,runoff and sediment yield in a Mediterranean mountain landscape

The relationship between the synoptic weather types (WTs), runoff and sediments in a Mediterranean mountain landscape was analysed. The study was performed between 2005 and 2012 using one of the most complete and extensive daily databases of rainfall, runoff and sediment recorded in the Spanish Pyrenees, coupled with WTs defined from the National Meteorological Center/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NMC/NCAR) 40‐Year Reanalysis Project ? ? Correction added on 18 December 2013, after online publication: EMULATE project was replaced with NMC/NCAR 40‐Year Reanalysis Project.
. The results show that the three wettest WTs accounted for 30% of rainy days and 46% of rainfall, but comprised only 13% of total daily records. To obtain a much more robust association between WTs and rainfall an analysis was carried out using a longer rainfall record (1989–2011). The analyses confirmed that the results obtained from the Araguás catchment are representative of a longer time span. The cyclonic, north‐westerly and westerly WTs play an important role in runoff generation, coinciding with the wettest WTs. Extreme floods are commonly associated also with south‐westerly and westerly airflows, whereas less flooding was generated under cyclonic circulations. Sediment transport was concentrated in 2.9% of total time mainly related to westerly WTs. Seasonal differences exist in WT frequency. In winter and spring north‐west and West are the most prominent WTs related to rainfall, water and sediment yield, although in spring cyclonic frequency was higher. During autumn north‐west and south‐west were the most frequent, but sediment yield was produced nearby under south‐west flow. In summer the WTs that produce sediment are north and west. A magnitude–frequency analysis shows the different behaviour of WTs according to their efficiency in producing runoff and sediment. A study with different monitored areas around the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin would be very valuable in providing information for hydrological and sediment behaviour under the current conditions of global climate change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Grid size effects analysis and hydrological similarity of surface runoff in flatland basins

The effects of grid-size modification on the derived topographic attributes are analysed and a procedure for scaling model parameters and similarity assessment between flow variables is proposed. Hydrological simulations are performed with a physically-based and spatially-distributed quasi-2D mathematical model. The scaled model parameters are the effective roughness coefficient associated with overland flow (n_ov) and the transverse slope in the cell (TSC). To scale the selected parameters, the criterion of equilibrium storage conservation between the different grid sizes is applied. Three basins of the central-east region of Argentina are modelled. The spatial variability of basin geomorphology is quantified using the entropy concept. The simulation results show that when grid size is increased, to obtain similar hydrological responses it is necessary to increase the n_ov or to reduce the TSC. In terms of similarity, the best results are achieved when TSC is scaled, particularly when water depths are considered.     

Assessment of rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling: A case study in the Brue catchment,UK

This study explores rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling. A novel assessment scheme integrated with coefficient of variance and Moran's I is introduced to describe effective rainfall spatial variability. Coefficient of variance is widely accepted to identify rainfall variability through rainfall intensity, whereas Moran's I reflects rainfall spatial autocorrelation. This new assessment framework combines these two indicators to assess the spatial variability derived from both rainfall intensity and distribution, which are crucial in determining the time and magnitude of runoff generation. Four model structures embedded in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model are adopted for hydrological modelling in the Brue catchment of England. The models are assigned with 1, 3, 8, and 27 hydrological response units, respectively, and diverse rainfall spatial information for 236 events are extracted from 1995. This study investigates the model performance of different partitioning based on rainfall spatial variability through peak volume (Q_p) and time to peak (T_p), along with the rainfall event process. The results show that models associated with dense spatial partitioning are broadly capable of capturing more spatial information with better performance. It is unnecessary to utilize models with high spatial density for simple rainfall events, though they show distinct advantages on complex events. With additional spatial information, Q_p experiences a notable improvement over T_p. Moreover, seasonal patterns signified by the assessment scheme imply the feasibility of seasonal models.     

Plot and small‐watershed scale runoff from two reclaimed surface‐mined watersheds in Alberta

Infiltration excess overland flow has been identified as the dominant flow pathway in recently reclaimed surface mined watersheds as a result of compaction and sorting during the reclamation procedure. Therefore, there could be a fairly direct relationship between runoff generated from the hillslopes to that measured at the watershed outlet. A 3‐year study was initiated in 1993 to determine how well surface runoff at a watershed scale could be predicted from 1‐m² runoff frames placed on hillslopes in two reclaimed surface‐mined watersheds in central Alberta. Runoff from the hillslope frames suggests outlet discharge should be high from the 3\4‐ha Sandy Subsoil Watershed and much less for the 9\8‐ha West Watershed, but the opposite occurred. Most of the hillslope runoff from the Sandy Subsoil Watershed infiltrated once it reached the channel and depression storage played an insignificant role in determining runoff. In contrast, most of the runoff from the West Watershed originated from rain falling directly on the saturated channel (depression storage) or near‐channel saturated areas, rather than the hillslopes. Neither watershed runoff magnitude nor timing could be predicted from the same parameters for hillslope runoff frames for either reclaimed watershed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineating runoff processes and critical runoff source areas in a pasture hillslope of the Ozark Highlands

The identification of runoff contributing areas would provide the ideal focal points for water quality monitoring and Best Management Practice (BMP) implementation. The objective of this study was to use a field‐scale approach to delineate critical runoff source areas and to determine the runoff mechanisms in a pasture hillslope of the Ozark Highlands in the USA. Three adjacent hillslope plots located at the Savoy Experimental Watershed, north‐west Arkansas, were bermed to isolate runoff. Each plot was equipped with paired subsurface saturation and surface runoff sensors, shallow groundwater wells, H‐flumes and rain gauges to quantify runoff mechanisms and rainfall characteristics at continuous 5‐minute intervals. The spatial extent of runoff source areas was determined by incorporating sensor data into a geographic information‐based system and performing geostatistical computations (inverse distance weighting method). Results indicate that both infiltration excess runoff and saturation excess runoff mechanisms occur to varying extents (0–58% for infiltration excess and 0–26% for saturation excess) across the plots. Rainfall events that occurred 1–5 January 2005 are used to illustrate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the critical runoff source areas. The methodology presented can serve as a framework upon which critical runoff source areas can be identified and managed for water quality protection in other watersheds. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of the relationship between catchment vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff

The impact of changing catchment vegetation type on mean annual runoff has been known for some time, however, the impact on the variability of annual runoff has been established only recently. Differences in annual actual evapotranspiration between vegetation types and the potential effect of changing vegetation type on mean annual runoff and the variability of annual runoff are briefly reviewed. The magnitude of any change in the variability of annual runoff owing to a change in catchment vegetation type is related to the pre‐ and post‐change vegetation types and the seasonality of precipitation, assuming that the variability of annual precipitation remains constant throughout. Significant implications of the relationship between vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff are presented and discussed for water resource management, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating effective impervious area in urban watersheds using land cover,soil character and asymptotic curve number

Knowledge of the effective impervious area (EIA) or the degree to which impervious surfaces are hydraulically connected to the drainage system is useful for improving hydrological and environmental models and assessing the effectiveness of green stormwater infrastructure in urban watersheds. The goal of this research is to develop a method to estimate EIA fraction in urban watersheds using readily available data. Since EIA is dependent on rainfall–runoff response and cannot be solely determined based on the physical characteristics of a watershed, the EIA is linked with the asymptotic curve number (CN), a watershed index that represents runoff characteristics. In order for the method to be applicable to ungauged watersheds, the asymptotic CN is predicted using land cover and soil data from 35 urban catchments in Minnesota and Texas, USA. Similar data from 11 other urban catchments in Wisconsin and Texas, USA, are used to validate the results. A set of runoff depth versus EIA fraction curves is also developed to assess the impact of EIA reduction on discharge from an urban watershed in land-use planning studies.     

Design hydrograph estimation in small and ungauged watersheds: continuous simulation method versus event‐based approach

The proper assessment of design hydrographs and their main properties (peak, volume and duration) in small and ungauged basins is a key point of many hydrological applications. In general, two types of methods can be used to evaluate the design hydrograph: one approach is based on the statistics of storm events, while the other relies on continuously simulating rainfall‐runoff time series. In the first class of methods, the design hydrograph is obtained by applying a rainfall‐runoff model to a design hyetograph that synthesises the storm event. In the second approach, the design hydrograph is quantified by analysing long synthetic runoff time series that are obtained by transforming synthetic rainfall sequences through a rainfall‐runoff model. These simulation‐based procedures overcome some of the unrealistic hypotheses which characterize the event‐based approaches. In this paper, a simulation experiment is carried out to examine the differences between the two types of methods in terms of the design hydrograph's peak, volume and duration. The results conclude that the continuous simulation methods are preferable because the event‐based approaches tend to underestimate the hydrograph's volume and duration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市化背景下年最大日径流演变及影响因素研究——以长江下游秦淮河流域为例

随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,城市化地区水文过程受到较大影响,极端水文事件发生频率显著加大,探究城市化地区洪水演变和驱动机理对于防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文以长江下游快速城市化地区的秦淮河流域为例,分析了1987—2018年期间该流域年最大日径流的演变特征,构建多元线性回归模型和广义可加GAMLSS模型识别了关键驱动因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:(1)城市化背景下秦淮河流域年最大日径流呈现显著上升趋势,平均增长速率为14.77 m³/(s·a),并于2001年发生显著突变。(2)汛期降水量和不透水面率是年最大日径流变化的关键驱动因素,最优模型显示前者贡献率超过了70%,表明了降水改变的决定性作用,而不透水面率贡献率超过20%则表明了下垫面的改变对年最大日径流演变存在显著影响。(3)不透水面的增加对年最大日径流和汛期降水量响应关系的影响程度从突变前的6.7%增加到突变后的10.4%,快速城市化已显著改变了流域降水-径流响应过程。研究表明,随着城市发展秦淮河流域的年最大日径流受到人类活动显著影响,洪涝威胁日趋增大,研究结果可为城市化地区防洪减灾提供一定参考。     

Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Songhua River basin,China

Influences of climatic change on the components of global hydrological cycle, including runoff and evapotranspiration are significant in the mid‐ and high‐latitude basins. In this paper, the effect of climatic change on annual runoff is evaluated in a large basin—Songhua River basin which is located in the northeast of China. A method based on Budyko‐type equation is applied to separate the contributions of climatic factors to changes in annual runoff from 1960 to 2008, which are computed by multiplying their partial derivatives by the slopes of trends in climate factors. Furthermore, annual runoff changes are predicted under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with projections from five GCMs. The results showed that contribution of annual precipitation to annual runoff change was more significant than that of annual potential evapotranspiration in the Songhua River basin; and the factors contributing to annual potential evapotranspiration change were ranked as temperature, wind speed, vapour pressure, and sunshine duration. In the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, changes in annual runoff estimated with the GCM projections exhibited noticeable difference and ranged from ? 8·4 to ? 16·8 mm a^?1 (?5·77 to ? 11·53% of mean annual runoff). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.