Tidally‐averaged flows in the interior Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta: Trends and change attribution

The hydrology of the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary (the Delta) has been significantly modified over the past 150 years to serve a variety of human needs for water supply and food production, albeit with adverse ecological impacts. These adverse impacts, in concert with evolving societal values, have motivated change in the estuary's water management to promote ecosystem restoration goals while continuing to support human uses. Understanding historical flow patterns, as well as the environmental functions provided by these flow patterns, is critical to restoration planning. Building upon previous work on outflow trends from the Delta to San Francisco Bay, this paper evaluates historical trends in key interior Delta flows spanning nine decades (1922–2016) and presents an attribution of these trends to various anthropogenic drivers. We reconstructed historical time series records at four key locations in the interior of the Delta; these time series represent tidally‐averaged flows that are intensively managed and are of great importance to the beneficial uses of water in the region. We derived several scenario‐based flow time series at these same four locations to assist in attributing change to a variety of drivers, including reservoir and export pumping operations, in‐Delta barrier and gate operations, and upstream water diversions. Flow changes were measured relative to 1920‐level land use and water management conditions. We find the four interior Delta locations to have distinct seasonal flow trends and, in general, unique responses to various drivers of change. Our work highlights the complex nature of historical flow changes in a highly‐managed estuarine ecosystem, and the types of modifications that would be necessary to reverse these changes.     

Freshwater flow to the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary over nine decades (Part 2): Change attribution

This paper explains observed trends in freshwater flow to the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary as reported in a companion paper (Hutton, Rath, & Roy, 2017 ). We employ a historical hydrologic record spanning nine decades and define a set of idealized flow scenarios to identify drivers of change in delta outflow and consequent salinity regime. Flow changes are measured against a baseline scenario representing 1920‐level land use and water management conditions. Additional scenarios are defined to represent the system absent state and federal water project reservoir and export operations, absent key non‐project reservoir operations, and absent historically‐observed sea level rise. These scenarios, in conjunction with the principle of superposition, are used to ascribe outflow and salinity trends to different anthropogenic and natural causes. We find that project and non‐project water management are attributed similar responsibility for decreasing outflow trends in April and May and consequent increasing spring salinity trends. In contrast, we find that increasing July and August outflow trends (and lagged decreasing salinity trends) are attributed to flow contributions from project water management; these contributions more than fully attenuate impacts associated with non‐project water management.     

Temporal and spatial pattern of thermokarst lake area changes at Yukon Flats,Alaska

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422 382‐ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long‐term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice‐jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decoupling the effects of deforestation and climate variability in the Tapajós river basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical river basins are experiencing major hydrological alterations as a result of climate variability and deforestation. These drivers of flow changes are often difficult to isolate in large basins based on either observations or experiments; however, combining these methods with numerical models can help identify the contribution of climate and deforestation to hydrological alterations. This paper presents a study carried out in the Tapaj?s River (Brazil), a 477,000 km² basin in South‐eastern Amazonia, in which we analysed the role of annual land cover change on daily river flows. Analysis of observed spatial and temporal trends in rainfall, forest cover, and river flow metrics for 1976 to 2008 indicates a significant shortening of the wet season and reduction in river flows through most of the basin despite no significant trend in annual precipitation. Coincident with seasonal trends over the past 4 decades, over 35% of the original forest (140,000 out of 400,000 km²) was cleared. In order to determine the effects of land clearing and rainfall variability to trends in river flows, we conducted hindcast simulations with ED2 + R, a terrestrial biosphere model incorporating fine scale ecosystem heterogeneity arising from annual land‐use change and linked to a flow routing scheme. The simulations indicated basin‐wide increases in dry season flows caused by land cover transitions beginning in the early 1990s when forest cover dropped to 80% of its original extent. Simulations of historical potential vegetation in the absence of land cover transitions indicate that reduction in rainfall during the dry season (mean of ?9 mm per month) would have had an opposite and larger magnitude effect than deforestation (maximum of +4 mm/month), leading to the overall net negative trend in river flows. In light of the expected increase in future climate variability and water infrastructure development in the Amazon and other tropical basins, this study presents an approach for analysing how multiple drivers of change are altering regional hydrology and water resources management.     

Variability and trends in runoff in the rivers of British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains

This study examines the 1914–2015 runoff trends and variability for 136 rivers draining British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains. Rivers are partitioned into eastward and westward flowing rivers based on flow direction from the Coast Mountains. Thus, eastward and westward runoff trends and influence of topography on runoff are explored. Our findings indicate that rivers flowing eastward to the Nechako and Chilcotin plateaus contribute the lowest annual runoff compared to westward rivers where runoff is high. Low interannual runoff variability is evident in westward rivers and their alpine watersheds, whereas eastward rivers exhibit high interannual runoff variability. On Vancouver Island, some of the rivers with the highest annual runoff exhibit high interannual variability. A significant (p < .05) negative correlation exists between mean annual runoff (R_m) and latitude, gauged area, mean elevation, and its corresponding coefficient of variation. However, a significant positive correlation was found between the glacierized area of mountainous regions and R_m. The mean coefficient of variation in annual runoff is significantly negatively correlated with latitude and glacierized area, but significantly positively correlated with longitude. Annual and seasonal runoff trend analyses of each river were performed for an early (1936–2015), a middle (1966–2015), and a late (1986–2015) period using the Mann–Kendall test. Trend analyses revealed a shift towards more positive detectable (signal‐to‐noise ratio > 1) trends in annual and seasonal runoff from the middle to the late period across the study domain. Most positive detectable seasonal runoff trends in the middle period occur in spring in glacierized westward rivers located >1,200 m, whereas in the late period, they all occur in fall and are regionally coherent around Vancouver Island and south coastal BC. Rivers draining eastward exhibit more positive trends over 1986–2015 compared to westward rivers. This study provides crucial information on the hydrology of mountain watersheds across British Columbia's coast in response to Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase changes, the elevational amplification of regional climate change, and their influences on precipitation and glacier retreat.     

Patterns of hydrologic connectivity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys,Antarctica: a synthesis of 20 years of hydrologic data

Streams in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica moderate an important hydrologic and biogeochemical connection between upland alpine glaciers, valley‐bottom soils, and lowland closed‐basin lakes. Moreover, MDV streams are simple but dynamic systems ideal for studying interacting hydrologic and ecological dynamics. This work synthesizes 20 years of hydrologic data, collected as part of the MDVs Long‐Term Ecological Research project, to assess spatial and temporal dynamics of hydrologic connectivity between glaciers, streams, and lakes. Long‐term records of stream discharge (Q), specific electrical conductance (EC), and water temperature (T) from 18 streams were analysed in order to quantify the magnitude, duration, and frequency of hydrologic connections over daily, annual, and inter‐annual timescales. At a daily timescale, we observe predictable diurnal variations in Q, EC, and T. At an annual timescale, we observe longer streams to be more intermittent, warmer, and have higher median EC values, compared to shorter streams. Longer streams also behave chemostatically with respect to EC, whereas shorter streams are more strongly characterized by dilution. Inter‐annually, we observe significant variability in annual runoff volumes, likely because of climatic variability over the 20 record years considered. Hydrologic connections at all timescales are vital to stream ecosystem structure and function. This synthesis of hydrologic connectivity in the MDVs provides a useful end‐member template for assessing hydrologic connectivity in more structurally complex temperate watersheds. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long‐term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal watershed hydrological fluxes that affect discharge. We used the physically based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model to simulate the inter‐annual hydrological dynamics of a 4 km² watershed in northern Idaho. The model simulates seasonal and annual water balance components including evaporation, transpiration, storage changes, deep drainage, and trends in streamflow. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal feedback to vapour pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. No calibrations were applied to fit the simulated streamflow to observations. The model reasonably simulated the annual runoff variations during the evaluation period from water year 2004 to 2009, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water budget in this small watershed. The simulations indicated that inter‐annual variations in streamflow were driven by variations in precipitation and soil water storage. One key parameterization issue was leaf area index, which strongly influenced interception across the catchment. This approach appears promising to help elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hydrological trends and variations resulting from climate and vegetation changes on small watersheds in the region. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of impacts of dams on the annual maximum flow characteristics in three regulated hydrologic regimes in Québec (Canada)

Despite the presence of numerous dams in Québec, no study has yet been devoted to their impacts on flood levels. To compensate for this deficiency, we have compared the impacts of dams on the five characteristics (magnitude and its interannual variability, timing and its interannual variability, and asymmetry) of the maximum annual flows between natural rivers and regulated rivers by means of several statistical approaches (analysis of variance, chi‐square test, nonparametric tests, etc.). In the course of this study, we analysed 88 stations on pristine rivers and 60 stations on regulated rivers. The latter group was subdivided into three regulated hydrologic regimes, i.e. inversed flow regimes (25 stations), homogenization flow regimes (15 stations) and natural‐type flow regimes (20 stations). The following observations emerge from this study. (1) In inversed and homogenization flow regimes, generally associated with reservoirs, all the flow characteristics are modified. These modifications notably entrain a decrease in magnitude, a significant reduction in the frequency of the maximum annual spring flows when the snow is melting and an increase in skewness of the distribution and interannual variability of the magnitude and dates of occurrence of the annual maximum flows. We also observed the disappearance of most flows with a recurrence of over 10 years. All these changes particularly affect watersheds larger than 10 000 km². (2) In natural‐type flow regimes, often associated with run‐of‐river dams, very few changes were observed compared with pristine rivers. These changes primarily affected watersheds smaller than 1000 km². Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles on the decadal scale suspended sediment behavior of a coastal dry‐summer subtropical catchment

Rivers display temporal dependence in suspended sediment–water discharge relationships. Although most work has focused on multi‐decadal trends, river sediment behavior often displays sub‐decadal scale fluctuations that have received little attention. The objectives of this study were to identify inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in the suspended sediment–discharge relationship of a dry‐summer subtropical river, infer the mechanisms behind these fluctuations, and examine the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation climate cycles. The Salinas River (California) is a moderate sized (11 000 km²), coastal dry‐summer subtropical catchment with a mean discharge (Q_mean) of 11.6 m³ s^?1. This watershed is located at the northern most extent of the Pacific coastal North America region that experiences increased storm frequency during El Niño years. Event to inter‐annual scale suspended sediment behavior in this system was known to be influenced by antecedent hydrologic conditions, whereby previous hydrologic activity regulates the suspended sediment concentration–water discharge relationship. Fine and sand suspended sediment in the lower Salinas River exhibited persistent, decadal scale periods of positive and negative discharge corrected concentrations. The decadal scale variability in suspended sediment behavior was influenced by inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in hydrologic characteristics, including: elapsed time since small (~0.1 × Q_mean), and moderate (~10 × Q_mean) threshold discharge values, the number of preceding days that low/no flow occurred, and annual water yield. El Niño climatic activity was found to have little effect on decadal‐scale fluctuations in the fine suspended sediment–discharge relationship due to low or no effect on the frequency of moderate to low discharge magnitudes, annual precipitation, and water yield. However, sand concentrations generally increased in El Niño years due to the increased frequency of moderate to high magnitude discharge events, which generally increase sand supply. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean

There is increasing interest in the magnitude of the flow of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean due to its impacts on the biogeophysical and socio‐economic systems in the north and its influence on global climate. This study examines freshwater flow based on a dataset of 72 rivers that either directly or indirectly contribute flow to the Arctic Ocean or reflect the hydrologic regime of areas contributing flow to the Arctic Ocean. Annual streamflow for the 72 rivers is categorized as to the nature and location of the contribution to the Arctic Ocean, and composite series of annual flows are determined for each category for the period 1975 to 2015. A trend analysis is then conducted for the annual discharge series assembled for each category. The results reveal a general increase in freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean with this increase being more prominent from the Eurasian rivers than from the North American rivers. A comparison with trends obtained from an earlier study ending in 2000 indicates similar trend response from the Eurasian rivers, but dramatic differences from some of the North American rivers. A total annual discharge increase of 8.7 km³/y/y is found, with an annual discharge increase of 5.8 km³/y/y observed for the rivers directly flowing to the Arctic Ocean. The influence of annual or seasonal climate oscillation indices on annual discharge series is also assessed. Several river categories are found to have significant correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, no significant association with climate indices is found for the river categories leading to the largest freshwater contribution to the Arctic Ocean.     

Influence of climate on alpine stream chemistry and water sources

The resilience of alpine/subalpine watersheds may be viewed as the resistance of streamflow or stream chemistry to change under varying climatic conditions, which is governed by the relative size (volume) and transit time of surface and subsurface water sources. Here, we use end‐member mixing analysis in Andrews Creek, an alpine stream in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, from water year 1994 to 2015, to explore how the partitioning of water sources and associated hydrologic resilience change in response to climate. Our results indicate that four water sources are significant contributors to Andrews Creek, including snow, rain, soil water, and talus groundwater. Seasonal patterns in source‐water contributions reflected the seasonal hydrologic cycle, which is driven by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snowpack. Flushing of soil water had a large effect on stream chemistry during spring snowmelt, despite making only a small contribution to streamflow volume. Snow had a large influence on stream chemistry as well, contributing large amounts of water with low concentrations of weathering products. Interannual patterns in end‐member contributions reflected responses to drought and wet periods. Moderate and significant correlations exist between annual end‐member contributions and regional‐scale climate indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index). From water year 1994 to 2015, the percent contribution from the talus‐groundwater end member to Andrews Creek increased an average of 0.5% per year (p < 0.0001), whereas the percent contributions from snow plus rain decreased by a similar amount (p = 0.001). Our results show how water and solute sources in alpine environments shift in response to climate variability and highlight the role of talus groundwater and soil water in providing hydrologic resilience to the system.     

Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins

In climate‐change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1° latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large‐scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station‐scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1° by 1° hydrologic model grid and then bias‐corrected using a quantile–quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965–1970 and testing period from 1971–1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid‐flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid‐flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneous change patterns of water level for inland lakes in High Mountain Asia derived from multi‐mission satellite altimetry

High‐altitude inland lakes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are key indicators to climate change and variability as a result of mostly closed watersheds and minimal disturbance by human activities. However, examination of the spatial and temporal pattern of lake changes, especially for water‐level variations, is usually limited by poor accessibility of most lakes. Recently, satellite altimeters have demonstrated their potential to monitor water level changes of terrestrial water bodies including lakes and rivers. By combining multiple satellite altimetry data provided by the Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS) and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument on the NASA Ice, Cloud and land Elevation satellite (ICESat), this study examined water level changes of typical lakes in HMA at a longer timescale (in the 1990s and 2000s) compared with earlier studies on Tibetan lakes. Cross‐evaluation of the radar altimetry data from LEGOS and laser altimetry data from ICESat/GLAS shows that they were in good agreement in depicting inter‐annual, seasonal and abrupt changes of lake level. The long‐term altimetry measurements reveal that water‐level changes of the 18 lakes showed remarkable spatial and temporal patterns that were characterized by different trends, onsets of rapid rises and magnitudes of inter‐annual variations for different lakes. During the study period, lakes in the central and northern HMA (15 lakes) showed a general growth tendency, while lakes in South Tibet (three lakes) showed significant shrinking tendency. Lakes in Central Tibet experienced rapid and stable water‐level rises around mid‐1990s followed by slowing growth rates after 2006. In contrast, the water‐level rises of lakes in the northern and north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau were characterized by abrupt increases in specific years rather than gradual growth. Meteorological data based on station observations indicate that the annual changes of water level showed strongly correlated with precipitation and evaporation but may not evidently related to the glacier melting induced by global warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer‐aided runoff models ‐ preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale

The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km²) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stream phosphorus dynamics of minimally impacted coastal plain watersheds

Understanding natural variation in stream phosphorus (P) concentrations over space and time is critical for understanding natural drivers of catchment behavior and establishing regulatory standards. Across minimally impacted benchmark streams (n = 81) in Florida, spatial variation in mean total P concentrations was large, indicating the importance of geologic controls on catchment solute dynamics. While this variation was significantly predicted by geographic regions, within regions we observed nearly comparable cross‐site variation, suggesting important finer‐scale heterogeneity in baseline catchment chemistry. Within‐site residual variation (unexplained by region or site) was as large as spatial variation, suggesting temporal variation in response to drivers such as flow may be critically important. To further explore timescales of P export variation, we collected long‐term, high‐frequency (subdaily) measurements of stream discharge (Q) and soluble reactive P (SRP) in 2 forested watersheds. We observed significant variation at annual, event, and diel timescales, all of which arise primarily from corresponding Q‐variation. Over the entire period of record, we generally observed a strong dilution signal, with SRP concentrations declining with increased Q. Despite significant SRP variation, flow variation was far larger and, thus, dominated temporal control on downstream flux. Within‐storm events, we observed strong and consistent clockwise SRP versus Q hysteresis, suggesting mobilization of proximal SRP stores. Diel variation exhibited mid‐afternoon concentration minima, Q‐controlled amplitude, and pronounced seasonal shifts in both magnitude and timing consistent with riparian evapotranspiration‐regulating lateral inputs of P‐rich groundwater. Such high‐resolution temporal signals allow identification of solute sources and provide insights into geologic and hydrologic drivers of solute variation.     

Size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass,primary production and respiration in the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary: A comparison with other nearshore coastal and estuarine ecosystems from the Bay of Biscay

The seasonal pattern of size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass, primary production and respiration was investigated along the longitudinal axis of the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary (Bay of Biscay) from April 2003 to September 2004. Environmental factors influencing phytoplankton dynamics were also studied. Chlorophyll a biomass showed a longitudinal pattern of increase from the outer Abra bay to the inner estuary. On a seasonal scale, in the intermediate and inner estuary phytoplankton biomass maxima were registered in summer, the warmest and driest season, whereas in the outer bay chlorophyll a peaks occurred in May 2004, but were delayed to August 2003, likely due to a very rainy spring. Data suggest that river flow exerts a marked influence on the timing of phytoplankton biomass maxima in this estuary, decreased river flows providing a lowering of turbidity and an increase in water residence time needed for chlorophyll a to build up. Nutrient concentrations were high enough not to limit phytoplankton growth throughout the annual cycle, except silicate and occasionally phosphate in the outer bay during summer. Silicate concentration correlated positively with river flow, whereas ammonium and phosphate maximum values were generally measured in the mid-estuary, suggesting the importance of allochthonous anthropogenic sources. In the intermediate and inner estuary phytoplankton biomass was generally dominated by >8 μm size-fraction (ca. 60%), but in August 2003 <8 μm size-fraction increased its contribution in the intermediate estuary. It is argued that the lower nutrient concentrations measured in August 2003 than in August 2004 could have played a role. This is the first study in which phytoplankton primary production rates have been measured along the longitudinal axis of the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary. Throughout the annual cycle these rates ranged from 0.001 to 3.163 g C m^?3 d^?1 and were comparable to those measured in nearby small estuaries of the Basque coast and other larger estuaries on the Bay of Biscay. Surface plankton community respiration rate maxima were measured during the spring 2004 chlorophyll a peak in the Abra bay and in summer months at the mid and inner estuary, coinciding with chlorophyll a biomass and primary production maxima. In general, respiration rates showed a positive correlation with temperature. In order to compare results from the Nervión–Ibaizabal estuary with other nearshore coastal and estuarine ecosystems within the Bay of Biscay a review of existing information on phytoplankton biomass and primary production dynamics was performed.     

Transport through Prince William Sound: numerical study in a nowcast/forecast system

Using 1-year simulated data from extended Prince William Sound (PWS) nowcast/forecast system, both barotropic and baroclinic transports through two-strait, semi-enclosed PWS are examined. With major tidal constituents removed, hourly time series of volume transports through two straits are significantly correlated with net transport well balanced by the time rate of change of the PWS spatial-mean sea level. A transition frequency band occurs within the coherence function of hourly volume transports, which is characterized by a nearly 180° phase shift between low-frequency (>30 h) and high-frequency (<6 h) bands. The transition band is implicitly related to the horizontally divergent and horizontally non-divergent flows inside the Sound. Further investigation of monthly and annual mean volume transports indicates strong seasonal variability of flows through two straits. On the other hand, baroclinic transport through PWS demonstrates the transition between a two-layered flow structure during the wintertime and a well-defined three-layered structure, i.e., inflow in both the surface and bottom layer with outflow in the intermediate layer, in the remainder of the year. This three-layer exchange flow is determined to be mainly buoyancy-driven, geostrophic flow, and thus largely affected by seasonal variability of buoyancy over the shelf and PWS.     

Hydrologic metrics for status‐and‐trends monitoring in urban and urbanizing watersheds

Local governmental agencies are increasingly undertaking potentially costly “status‐and‐trends” monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of stormwater control measures and land‐use planning strategies or to satisfy regulatory requirements. Little guidance is presently available for such efforts, and so we have explored the application, interpretation, and temporal limitations of well‐established hydrologic metrics of runoff changes from urbanization, making use of an unusually long‐duration, high‐quality data set from the Pacific Northwest (USA) with direct applicability to urban and urbanizing watersheds. Three metrics previously identified for their utility in identifying hydrologic conditions with biological importance that respond to watershed urbanization—T_Qmean (the fraction of time that flows exceed the mean annual discharge), the Richards‐Baker Index (characterizing flashiness relative to the mean discharge), and the annual tally of wet‐season day‐to‐day flow reversals (the total number of days that reverse the prior days' increasing or decreasing trend)—are all successful in stratifying watersheds across a range of urbanization, as measured by total contributing area of urban development. All metrics respond with statistical significance to multidecadal trends in urbanization, but none detect trends in watershed‐scale urbanization over the course of a single decade. This suggests a minimum period over which dependable trends in hydrologic alteration (or improvement) can be detected with confidence. The metrics also prove less well suited to urbanizing watersheds in a semi‐arid climate, with only flow reversals showing a response consistent with prior findings from more humid regions. We also explore the use of stage as a surrogate for discharge in calculating these metrics, recognizing potentially significant agency cost savings in data collection with minimal loss of information. This approach is feasible but cannot be implemented under current data‐reporting practices, requiring measurement of water‐depth values and preservation of the full precision of the original recorded data. With these caveats, however, hydrologic metrics based on stage should prove as or more useful, at least in the context of status‐and‐trends monitoring, as those based on subsequent calculations of discharge.