Interpolating U.S. Decennial Census Tract Data from as Early as 1970 to 2010: A Longitudinal Tract Database

Differences in the reporting units of data from diverse sources and changes in units over time are common obstacles to analysis of areal data. We compare common approaches to this problem in the context of changes over time in the boundaries of U.S. census tracts. In every decennial census, many tracts are split, consolidated, or changed in other ways from the previous boundaries to reflect population growth or decline. We examine two interpolation methods to create a bridge between years, one that relies only on areal weighting and another that also introduces population weights. Results demonstrate that these approaches produce substantially different estimates for variables that involve population counts, but they have a high degree of convergence for variables defined as rates or averages. Finally, the article describes the Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB), through which we are making available public-use tools to implement these methods to create estimates within 2010 tract boundaries for any tract-level data (from the census or other sources) that are available for prior years as early as 1970.     

The geography of same-sex couples and families in Australia: an empirical review

ABSTRACT

Much has changed since the first mapping of single-sex couples and families from the 2006 Australian census. An increasing willingness to allow their identification in the census has accompanied increasing public acceptance of same-sex couples culminating in significant support for legalising same-sex marriage in a 2017 national survey. Technological advances permit complex cross-tabulations of Australian census data and more detailed characterisations of same-sex couples. New geographies differentiate between male and female couples with children, showing same-sex couples are not just a feature of some inner-city areas, though these remain important, but also of suburban, regional and some rural areas. Drawing on the 2016 census, contemporary geographies of same-sex couples with and without children in Australia and changes over the past decade in Sydney are analysed at a time of increased interest in this demographic.     

Estimating the Accuracy of Geographic Variation in Indigenous Population Counts

The ABS 2006 Post-Enumeration Survey was extended to include a sample of localities from the whole of Australia, thereby providing an estimate of census net undercount reflective of the enumeration in remote Indigenous settlements for the first time. The results revealed substantial undercounting of the Indigenous population in certain jurisdictions. At the same time, census counts in many locations were substantially higher than demographic factors could account for. The analytical and policy issues that arise from this revolve around a simple question: what credence can we give to observed spatial patterns of Indigenous population change? This paper seeks to provide an answer by establishing the spatial relationship between population change and net migration at the small area level. This reveals the detailed geography of census undercount and ‘overcount’ with the former common in remote areas and the latter most evident in regional towns and cities. The findings raise important policy issues about the proper interpretation of Indigenous population change data and the nature of estimates used to determine fiscal resourcing for Indigenous policies and programs.     

Simulating trends in poverty and income inequality on the basis of 1991 and 2001 census data: a tale of two cities

How much does the 2001 census tell us about the changes in people's life in British cities and regions since 1991? This paper attempts to answer this question by telling the stories of two British northern cities: Leeds and Sheffield. In particular, the paper investigates and compares socio-economic change in these cities on the basis of actual 1991 and 2001 census data as well as estimated non-census data. A static spatial microsimulation model is used to combine the outputs of the 1991 and 2001 censuses of UK population with data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data. In particular, selected Small Area Statistics (SAS) tables from the 1991 and 2001 censuses are used as constraints in the spatial microsimulation modelling exercise, which aims to reweight BHPS household records so that they satisfy these constraints. The paper briefly discusses the change in these census variables across different localities of the two cities. It is then shown how the changes in these variables affect the simulation of non-census variables. Further, the microsimulation model is used to estimate the trends in income inequalities and child poverty between and within the two cities. Finally, the paper discusses the implication of the research findings for policy formulation.     

Neighbourhoods and area statistics in the post 2001 census era

This paper examines the current interest in neighbourhood-based policy in England and considers the extent to which the output geography developed for the 2001 census helps to meet the need for neighbourhood-based data. The characteristics of the new census output geography are presented, and the difficulties of creating meaningful neighbourhood geographies from statistical reporting units reviewed. The new geography will provide a much improved basis for the consolidation of data from official administrative sources, but additional challenges are also discussed in relation to the future of census data collection and publication.     

Assessing housing growth when census boundaries change

The US Census provides the primary source of spatially explicit social data, but changing block boundaries complicate analyses of housing growth over time. We compared procedures for reconciling housing density data between 1990 and 2000 census block boundaries in order to assess the sensitivity of analytical methods to estimates of housing growth in Oregon. Estimates of housing growth varied substantially and were sensitive to the method of interpolation. With no processing and areal‐weighted interpolation, more than 35% of the landscape changed; 75–80% of this change was due to decline in housing density. This decline was implausible, however, because housing structures generally persist over time. Based on aggregated boundaries, 11% of the landscape changed, but only 4% experienced a decline in housing density. Nevertheless, the housing density change map was almost twice as coarse spatially as the 2000 housing density data. We also applied a dasymetric approach to redistribute 1990 housing data into 2000 census boundaries under the assumption that the distribution of housing in 2000 reflected the same distribution as in 1990. The dasymetric approach resulted in conservative change estimates at a fine resolution. All methods involved some type of trade‐off (e.g. analytical difficulty, data resolution, magnitude or bias in direction of change). However, our dasymetric procedure is a novel approach for assessing housing growth over changing census boundaries that may be particularly useful because it accounts for the uniquely persistent nature of housing over time.     

Space,Place, Population and Census Analysis in Australia

The Australian Census of Population and Housing is a census of people not places. However, where people live and work can be of major relevance in our search for explaining and understanding their behaviour. This paper argues that the place dimension in the Australian census has not been exploited very effectively in this respect. Three dimensions of the issue are addressed. Firstly, the spatial units commonly used for analysis of census data often are not appropriate to the problem being investigated. The spatial units in the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) used for census data rarely represent meaningful social, economic and environmental regions. Secondly, the use of a simple urban/rural dichotomy is criticised as being a very blunt instrument to differentiate settlement types. Thirdly, the relationship between people and place in the census is discussed. While for the most part the census relates people to a single location—their place of usual residence—this is only one of the places with which people regularly interact. It is suggested that there is a need to adopt practices in the census which allow a range of population geographies to be defined. In conclusion it is argued that innovation in the Australian census, especially with the introduction of meshblocks and contemporary methodology and technology in Geographical Information Systems, makes it possible to analyse spatially referenced data in ways that can address these three issues.     

And Did the Walls Come Tumbling Down? Ethnic Residential Segregation in Four U.S. Metropolitan Areas 1980-2000

The initial releases of data from the 2000 U.S. Census allow exploration of the extent of change, if any, in residential segregation in four major cities, where substantial population growth has continued to generate increased ethnic diversity. Using a recently established method of classifying residential areas according to their ethnic composition which facilitates comparative study over time and space, this paper examines segregation trends in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Miami over the period 1980-2000 in the context of recent discussions of the nature of residential patterns there. It finds that though there has been some reduction in the extent of extreme segregation areas that are predominantly either White or African American with consequent greater ethnic mixing at the census tract level, nevertheless cores of extreme segregation remain, and these are being extended with greater segregation of the Hispanic population. Ethnic residential segregation in United States' metropolitan areas attracted much research throughout the 20th century, with each census providing new impetus for mapping and analysis. The 2000 census will be no exception, providing data with which the extent of change can be assessed after a further decade in which discrimination on the grounds of race and color was illegal. This paper provides an initial exploration for four metropolitan areas that have experienced substantial recent multi-ethnic in-migration. Using a method for classifying residential areas designed to facilitate comparative studies over space and time, it explores the extent of desegregation during the previous 20 years for each of the four main census ethnic groups.     

中国东部沿海地区区域结构重构——基于“五普”和“第一次经普”数据分析

1979-1992年,中国先后实施了沿海地区发展战略和三个地带发展战略。1980年代末,国家大规模开发长江沿岸地带,构成“T”字型的宏观布局战略。1980年代以后,以沿海为主的宏观发展战略取得巨大成功。2000年以来,沿海地区区域重构进入到新的历史时期。本文关于东部沿海地区区域结构的研究主要从“均质区域”的角度,并通过2000年的第五次人口普查数据和2004年第一次经济普查的就业行业人口数据,对东部沿海地区不同空间层面的经济结构重构转型进行研究。总体而言,“核心-边缘”理论能够揭示当前中国东部沿海地区的区域结构和区域重构基本特征和规律．并且能够预测未来一段时间的基本趋势。     

Comparison of methods for quantifying consumer spending on retail using publicly available data

Data and estimates on the spatial distribution of consumer spending form the foundation of retail location analysis and location-allocation spatial interaction models. The presented research presents and compares four methods to estimate consumer spending that combine different levels of detail in household spending data across multiple levels of household aggregation (i.e. census units). Results demonstrate that these methods, which use publicly available census data, can capture a substantial amount of reported sales. Furthermore, comparison of the best method with the de facto industry standard for business data in Canada shows a strong correlation (R2 > 0.85) across space and is within 10% of aggregate industry-derived spending estimate. Analysis of the spending data across space finds that the majority of spending occurs in census metropolitan areas with high spending clusters that offer unique opportunities for retail location. We interrogate the socio-demographic characteristics of the population in these high spending clusters and find that only a few variables are required to explain a large proportion of the variance in consumer spending. The overarching outcome of the presented research is that small-to-medium businesses, planners, and municipalities do not need expensive proprietary data to estimate and predict consumer spending and market demand.     

Subduction beneath western South America: evidence from converted phases

Summary. There are two conflicting models for the dip of the subduction zone beneath central Peru and beneath central Chile. One model, based primarily on the distribution of hypocentres thought to be most reliably located, postulates a shallow (∼ 10°) dip for the downgoing plate. The second model, re-examined in this paper and based chiefly on an analysis of ScSp converted phases, postulates a normal (∼ 30°) dip for the subduction.
A detailed examination of ScSp data for central Peru and central Chile shows that ScSp arrivals can be identified on all seismograms on which the predicted signal/noise ratio is greater than 1, and the measured amplitude ratios of ScSp to ScS imply a normal dip for the conversion interfaces. The characteristics of the ScSp arrivals in these regions are virtually identical to those for ScSp arrivals in southern Peru, where a well-defined Benioff zone and the calculated ScSp -conversion region both imply a normal dip for the subduction. Hence ScSp observations in South America support the model of an approximately constant dip of subduction from central Peru to central Chile to a depth of at least 120 km, and impose a constraint that must be satisfied by any satisfactory tectonic model for these regions.     

Human-Environment Patterns of Metropolitan Spatial Restructuring:Atlanta,Georgia and Shanghai,PRC,1950-2000

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制造业地理集聚的区域差异研究——江苏和安徽对比研究

产业地理集聚既取决于产业特征,也依赖于区域特性。采用2001年基本单位普查资料企业数据对比江苏和安徽两个差异显著的省区制造业地理集聚。总体而言,制造业在安徽省较江苏省更为集聚,两省最为集聚的产业是一些资本或技术密集型产业,最为分散的产业是需要接近资源或地方化市场或地方保护较强。一些资源加工型产业、资本技术密集型产业以及历史悠久的传统产业在江苏省和安徽省集聚态势差异明显。制造业地理集聚的区域差异可能源于产业在不同省区的技术水平、规模强度以及功能的差异,但区域性因素仍然是主导。两省经济发展水平、城市化水平以及基础设施的差异是安徽省大多数产业较江苏省更为集聚的一般解释,资源区位及其可得性、地理位置、产业传统以及制度性差异等进一步造成了一些产业在两省地理集聚程度的差异。     

On the accuracy of TIGER-type geocoded address data in relation to cadastral and census areal units

In many applications of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) a common task is the conversion of addresses into grid coordinates. In many countries this is usually accomplished using address range TIGER-type files in conjunction with geocoding packages within a GIS. Improvements in GIS functionality and the storage capacity of large databases mean that the spatial investigation of data at the individual address level is now commonly performed. This process relies on the accuracy of the geocoding mechanism and this paper examines this accuracy in relation to cadastral records and census tracts. Results from a study of over 20 000 addresses in Sydney, Australia, using a TIGER-type geocoding process suggest that 5-7.5% (depending on geocoding method) of addresses may be misallocated to census tracts, and more than 50% may be given coordinates within the land parcel of a different property.     

Toward a Spatial Understanding of Staple Food and Nonstaple Food Production in Brazil

Brazilian agricultural census data at the municipal level are used to develop and map a simple index of staple food versus nonstaple food agriculture for Brazil over time (1996–2006). The results show spatial variation in the direction and degree of the shift toward or away from staple food cropping across Brazil. The index is presented as an important methodological step toward a systematic geographic understanding of crop share changes surrounding food versus fuel and other nonfood crop production.     

Use of the census of population to discern trends in the Welsh language: an aggregate analysis

The aim of this paper is to present a preliminary analysis of unitary authority level data from the 2001 census of population on the spatial (and, where available, temporal) patterns in proportions of Welsh speakers in Wales. In so doing we draw attention to the advantages (and limitations) of the census as a source of information on the state of the Welsh language. Although a 2 per cent increase in the percentage of Welsh speakers between 1991 and 2001 has been welcomed, several commentators have drawn attention to the change in the nature of the question asked at the 2001 census which may account for some of this increase. In this paper, we assess what is, and is not, possible to discern from the census, draw attention to other potential sources of information on the language and make some preliminary recommendations for those agencies concerned with monitoring trends in the future, both with regard to the need for more detailed language use surveys and the nature of the question included in subsequent censuses that would permit a more useful comparison of spatial and temporal trends.     

社会经济统计数据热点探测的MAUP效应

为探讨不同尺度下社会经济统计数据热点的变化规律及其影响因子, 本文基于2000 年全国县级农业统计数据和2008 年北京市第二次经济普查数据, 按照一定的聚合规则得到不同尺度的数据, 计算不同尺度下的局部空间自相关指标G 统计值并对其进行显著性检验得到热点分布, 分析不同聚合尺度下热点的变化规律。然后运用Logistic 回归分析探测了影响聚合前后热点变化的因素, 并根据探测结果建立了预测聚合前后热点变化的Logistic 模型。分析结果表明, 基于G 统计探测的热点分布具有明显的空间尺度效应, 聚合水平越高、空间尺度越大, 热点数目越少。Logistic 回归分析的显著性分析表明, 热点包含的面状单元数目和热点的平均G 统计值是影响热点探测尺度效应的主要因素。热点包含的面状单元越多, 热点的平均G 统计值越大, 热点探测结果受尺度效应的影响越小。研究建立的热点变化预测模型, 可以在细尺度热点分布状况已知时, 根据热点包含的面状单元数目和热点的平均G 统计值来预测聚合后热点的变化。对模型精度的交叉验证结果表明, 模型对全国县级农业统计数据热点变化预测精度可达到93.8%, 对北京市第二次经济普查数据热点变化预测精度达到94.2%。两套数据试验得到的结论一致, 说明热点探测的尺度效应变化规律和所选变量以及研究区域的大小无关。     

Spatial Patterns of Immigrant Assimilation*

This research compares the contemporary areal patterning of cultural and economic assimilation with patterns expected from a model of urban spatial assimilation described by Massey and modified by us. Using 1990 census data (PUMS) for 12 immigrant groups in the greater Los Angeles area, we locate the ethnic concentrations of each group and identify two additional zones based on distance from the concentration. The zones represent varying degrees of spatial assimilation. This method allows us to compare the distribution of immigrant cohorts over time and the degree of cultural and economic assimilation of residents of the different zones. Our findings confirm most geographical aspects of the modified model. Zonal differentiation occurs in the expected direction and is statistically significant although not strong for most groups. More recently arrived immigrant groups and those with higher incomes tend to show greater differences in assimilation between zones.     

甘肃省人口规模及地区分布变化

人口发展的区域差异是甘肃省社会经济发展不平衡的重要表现之一，也是其不平衡的重要原因之一。对甘肃省1990年第四次人口普查和2000年第五次人口普查数据进行实证分析和统计分布检验的结果表明，从第四次人口普查到2000年第五次人口普查，甘肃省人口在规模扩大的同时，人口的地区分布差异反而有所减小，主要原因之一是各市人口增长差异有所缩小。实现甘肃社会经济的可持续发展，必须在有效控制人口总量增长的同时，高度重视对人口发展区域差异的合理调控。     

The urban density function and its application: cross-sectional approach

Using population census data for the years 1947-1971, the author analyzes the relationship between changes in urban density and population growth in three major coastal urban centers in Queensland, Australia. "Changes in density patterns over time are examined in terms of the empirical exponential density gradient models which emphasise the significance of the distance from the CBD (Central Business District), and a projection of residential population in the centres is made for the year 1990."