Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84

"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period." It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period.... The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."     

Social-demographic development of Vologda Oblast during the intercensal period 1970-79

"Demographic trends in Vologda Oblast are analyzed on the basis of 1979 census results as a case study of an oblast involved in the [development] program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR. The trend in the 1970-79 intercensal period was for continuing growth of urban population, especially in the two major urban centers of Vologda and the iron and steel city of Cherepovets, and depopulation of rural areas. The age-sex structure is distinguished by a strong aging trend and sex imbalance, especially in rural areas. Despite the proclaimed aim of fostering abandonment of tiny rural places (with 25 residents or less), the number of places in that size class actually increased during the intercensal period (from 40% of all rural places in 1970 to 52 percent in 1979)."     

Demographic characteristics of settlement and a demogeographic regionalization of the USSR

"An approach to the delimitation of demogeographic regions in the USSR is proposed and a network of 27 regions is developed and mapped." Geographical differences in population reproduction, structure, and migration at various territorial levels are examined. Data are provided on changes in urban population between 1959 and 1979; total, urban, and rural population growth during that period; total and rural population density in 1979; and rates of natural increase as of 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1974.     

Rapidly growing towns in the former USSR and Russia, 1970-1993

"Using urban places of 15,000 or more inhabitants as its point of reference, this paper identifies and investigates the most rapidly growing towns and cities of the USSR during the recent intercensal periods of 1970-79 and 1979-89. Rapidly growing towns are defined as towns that grew by at least 50 percent overall for the intercensal period and at a rate of equal to or exceeding 4.1 percent annually. In addition, a category of 'doubling towns' is investigated, defined as towns that increased in population by at least 100 percent (or 6.3 percent or more annually). Special attention is devoted to the geographical aspects, economic functions, and size characteristics of the towns involved. Comparisons with 1959-70, an overall examination from 1959-89, and an update for contemporary Russia during 1989-93 also are undertaken."     

Economic region net migration patterns in the USSR: 1979-89

"This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR."     

Declining towns in the former USSR

"The paper comprises an update of an earlier study...focused on towns with declining population during the 1959-1970 period. Based on recently published data on individual urban centers with 15,000 or more inhabitants reported in the 1979 and 1989 censuses, it identifies centers where population declined from 1970 to 1989. The study also assesses selected geographical aspects, economic functions, and size characteristics of such urban centers. Comparisons with data from the 1959-1970 period are made to arrive at a 30-year perspective."     

Some comments on Soviet population change, 1970-1979

The author comments on an article by Wixman and Caro concerning the analysis of population growth in the USSR during the period 1970-1979. Possible methods of analyzing and mapping absolute population change for statistical units of varying sizes are evaluated with respect to their ability to provide an adequate picture of growth intensity.     

New approaches to the study of population dynamics in cities of Moscow Oblast

New approaches to the study of population growth, spatial distribution, and urbanization in the USSR are presented. "Quantitative analysis of historical trends in city growth rates within Moscow Oblast (1926-1984) reveals two major components or city types: a group of cities with below-(oblast) average rates for each of five periods of analysis (1926-39, 1939-59, 1959-70, 1970-79, 1979-84) and a second category experiencing above-average growth until 1970, with subsequent reduction of rates below the oblast average."     

中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

在县市尺度上对2000-2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析,划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型,并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架,探讨了不同类型的形成机理,主要的发现如下:①2000-2010年,人口收缩单元占比约为38.6％,城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体,达到34.5％,而"城乡双收缩型"和"...     

Shifts in the distribution of rural population in the non-Chernozem zone of the RSFSR

"Rural population change within the Non-Chernozem zone of the RSFRS [Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic] is examined over the period 1959-79 at several levels of analysis: the Non-Chernozem zone as a whole, its major economic regions, individual oblasts, individual rayons and individual farms and rural places. The overriding tendency at all levels of analysis has been the increasing spatial concentration of rural population." The authors observe that "this concentration assumes a variety of forms, from the concentration of rural population in the suburban zones of large cities and the immediate surroundings of rayon seats to a decline in the number of rural places (from 180,000 in 1959 to 118,000 in 1979) and the growth of local centers against a general background of rural population decline. The authors hint that the observed tendency is a positive development, in keeping with the policy of converting Soviet agriculture to a more intensive path of development."     

中国中部六省城乡人口异速生长过程分析

分析中国中部的江西、湖南、湖北、河南、安徽和山西6省1949~2007年的城市化进程表明,6个省区的城市化过程大致相同,呈现出"J"型增长态势,实际可以看成"S"型增长的局部形式,说明6省区的城乡人口替代过程基本具备城乡人口异速生长过程的一般规律。由于1977年以前的数据波动较大,城乡人口替代过程表现出很强的复杂性,因此,选取6省区1977年以来的城乡人口异速生长过程进行具体分析,结果显示:6省区城乡人口异速生长过程均可分为正异速生长阶段和乡村人口衰退阶段,转变年份出现在1994~2000年。不同之处在于安徽与河南两省呈现出大致相同的城乡人口替代过程,阶段转变较早;江西省和山西省相似,转变时间较晚;湖南省在转变时呈现出微小的波动;湖北省始终呈现出较强的波动状态。这种结果在理论上验证了城乡人口异速生长过程具有维度不变的性质,在实践上证明了中部六省的城市化进入了乡村人口衰退的质变阶段。     

Territorial differences in population growth in the USSR, 1970-79

The authors comment on an article by Bond and Lydolph (see 46: Title 1088) concerning population growth in the USSR during the inter-censal period 1970-1979. In the present article, the authors use a more detailed analysis of the preliminary results of the 1979 census in order to illustrate other major developments     

中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素

基于交叉学科视角,结合改革开放以来的统计数据,综合运用探索性空间数据分析与偏最小二乘回归分析等方法,对中国农村人口非农化时空演变特征及影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：① 中国农村人口非农化的时间维度具有明显的阶段性特征,自1978 以来,全国与“四大板块”先后经历了倒“U”型增长→波动增长→平稳增长3 个阶段的演替;② 中国农村人口非农化的空间维度具有明显的分异演化特征;③ 中国农村人口非农化增长的热点区域存在显著的空间极化现象,即增长热点先后历经了“两核集聚”→“一核极化”→“中心辐射递减”的时空演变;④ 中国农村人口非农化的时空差异主要受工业化水平、城镇化水平、服务业发展水平、受教育水平和农业现代化水平等5 个因子影响,并且各因子在不同时期的作用大小存在显著差异;⑤ 面对转型期中国农村人口非农化新形势与新挑战,地理学界在理论成果及应对措施方面应该作出更多贡献。     

Population development in rural areas of the United States in the 1980s: turnaround of trends or continuity?

"The article analyses the population growth in rural counties of the U.S.A. for 1970-80 and 1980-86. The growth rates are examined on different levels of aggregation (individual counties, subregions and regions) and in relation to several possible determinants of growth. The main objective of the study is to examine whether the growth patterns in the eighties support the hypothesis of a turnaround in the population development of rural areas.... The results reveal a diversity of growth patterns and significant regional differences. Rural counties within the daily urban system of a metropolitan area have significantly higher growth rates than peripheral rural counties. The results do not support the notion of a turnaround of long established trends. The trends in the eighties bear more resemblance to traditional growth patterns of rural areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

基于RS与GIS的典型黑土区土地利用变化分析——以海伦市为例

以海伦市1986年,1995年和2007年3期TM影像为基础数据,在RS与GIS技术支持下,运用马尔科夫转移矩阵、单一土地利用类型动态度和景观空间格局分析方法对沿海市土地利用变化、景观格局特征进行研究,并分析了土地利用变化的驱动力。结果表明,①旱田和水田面积一直处于增长状态,增长速率由快变缓,主要由林地、草地和未利用土地转换而来。②林地、草地和未利用土地面积持续下降;城镇建设用地和农村建设用地的面积一直保持着增加态势,增长速率由缓变快,使得土地利用强度有所上升。③景观格局变化主要表现为,优势度整体上升、景观多样性整体呈现下降的趋势,城乡建设用地的类斑近圆指数最大,林地、未利用土地和水域斑块破碎度增加。④人为因素中的人口增长、经济发展、政府生态环境保护和农业可持续发展的政策在土地利用变化中起重要作用。该研究对于合理利用土地资源和农业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

长江三角洲地区城市用地增长的时空特征分析

以Landsat MSS、TM、ETM 卫星影像为主要数据源,利用遥感和GIS 手段,提取了长江三角洲地区5 个时相(1979 年、1990 年、1995 年、2000 年、2005 年) 城市用地信息,分析了城市用地扩展速度、扩展强度、空间结构的变化特征,进而探讨了长江三角洲1979 年以来的城市空间生长过程。结果表明：① 1979 年以来,长江三角洲城市用地增长呈明显的加快趋势,城市用地总体扩展强度也表现为不断提高。不同行政等级城市用地的扩展强度表现为直 辖市> 地级市> 副省级市> 县(县级市)。② 长江三角洲城市用地空间结构的分维和稳定性特征具有一定的波动性。城市用地的空间结构特征与城市用地增长过程和发展阶段具有一定的联系。③ 长江三角洲城市生长表现出“一核二带”、“二核三带”、“四核四带”和“五核五带”的空间轨迹。     

Recent population characteristics and growth in the USSR

"Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography...by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change."     

Urban settlement size trends in the former USSR: 1970-1989

"Based upon recently published data, this paper investigates urban settlement size trends in the former USSR and its republics during the intercensal periods of 1970-1979 and 1979-1989. Results indicate that although a trend toward largeness of the Soviet urban hierarchy continues, a slowing in this direction has occurred. Among republics, all had an increasing trend towards largeness on at least one and usually all three summary measures of urban settlement size structure. The RSFSR [Russia] and Armenia especially consistently evidenced a relatively high degree of largeness, while the former Baltic republics generally revealed a relative smallness."     

区域历史人口空间格局精细化重建:方法与实证

以清中期（1736~1820年）苏州府为例,探索历史时期人口空间分布的影响机制,构建历史人口空间分布适宜性计算方法,在2个典型时段（1776年、1820年）重建1 km×1 km空间格网下的人口数据集。研究结果表明:① 在数量上,1776年,苏州府人口总量为511.1万,其中城市人口120.1万,农村人口391.0万;1820年,总人口为590.8万,其中城市168.7万,农村422.1万;城市人口增长速率明显快于农村人口。② 空间格局上,1776~1820年,苏州府中部的吴县、长洲、元和等县人口较为集中,东北部昭文、新阳及中南部吴江、震泽等县较为稀疏,但区域间差异渐趋缩小;人口增长主要集中在城镇区域,较高等级城镇人口集聚特征更为显著。③ 通过与当地历史文献及现代人口格局进行相关性和趋势检验,总体特征、分布趋势和变化特点具有一致性。     

城市空间增长与人口密度变化之间的关联关系

探究城市空间增长与人口密度变化之间的关联关系是城市可持续发展研究的基础,对制定有效的土地政策、促进城市紧凑发展具有重要意义。选取中国和欧洲23个人口100万以上城市作为研究样本,采用1990年、2000年和2014年3期土地利用数据和人口数据,计算各时段样本城市空间增长速率,建立城市紧凑度指标,并将城市空间增长方式划分为紧凑型、保持型和蔓延型,进一步探讨了样本城市的空间增长特征、人口密度变化特征及两者之间的关系。主要结论为：① 人口密度降低这一现象普遍存在于中国和欧洲城市,中国城市人口密度相对较高且降低速率较快,欧洲城市人口密度相对较低且降低速率较慢;1990—2014年中国城市半径的增长速率明显快于欧洲城市半径的增长速率。城市空间增长速率与人口密度变化速率呈现强负相关关系（Pearson相关系数为-0.693）;② 1990—2000年中欧城市主要以紧凑型方式增长。2000—2014年中国城市主要以蔓延型方式增长,且人口密度随时间下降的速率加快;欧洲城市主要以紧凑型和保持型方式增长,人口密度降低速率减小;③ 紧凑型的空间增长方式并不一定会带来人口密度的升高,但会减缓人口密度下降的速率。中欧城市对比分析表明,城市维持紧凑型空间增长方式,则城市人口密度随时间下降速率减慢;而空间增长方式由紧凑型转为蔓延型,将加剧城市人口密度随时间下降。