Sedimentation and new operational curves for Mosul Dam,Iraq

Abstract

Mosul Dam is one of the biggest hydraulic structures in Iraq. Its storage capacity is 11.11 × 10⁹ m³ at a maximum operation level of 330 m a.s.l. The dam became operational in 1986 and no survey has been conducted to determine its storage capacity and establish new operational curves since this date. A topographic map of scale 1:50 000 dated 1983 was converted into triangulated irregular network (TIN) format using the ArcGIS program to evaluate the operational curves. Then the reservoir was surveyed in 2011 to establish the reduction in its storage capacity and to develop new operational curves. The results indicated that the reduction in the storage capacity of the reservoir was 14.73%. This implies that the rate of sedimentation within the reservoir was 45.72 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. These results indicate that most of the sediment was deposited within the upper zone of the reservoir where the River Tigris enters the reservoir.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Issa, E.I., Al-Ansari, N., and Knutsson, S., 2013. Sedimentation and new operational curves for Mosul Dam, Iraq. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1456–1466.     

Silting patterns in the reservoirs of small- and medium-sized earthen check dams in humid subtropical monsoon regions

Silting of reservoirs is a ubiquitous process whenever water is impounded. Despite substantial work on the rates of silting, the spatial pattern of silting in reservoirs is not clearly understood. While it is anticipated that the variability of silting increases with decreasing reservoir size, not much is known about siltation in subtropical humid regions affected by monsoon rainfall. This paper presents the initial results of geomorphic analysis of six earthen check dams in the Shiwalik foothills of the Himalayas (India) in areas that are inhabited by high proportions of disempowered populations. These check dams include three small-sized dams (Dhamala-II, Rel Majra and Sukhomajri-II) and three medium-sized dams (Bunga-I, Parachh-II and Siswan). Field data were collected from each reservoir. The methods used included spatial interpolations of bed depth and silt thickness in each reservoir, Structure from Motion photogrammetry to extract multiple channel cross-sections from photographic scans along tributary mouths, texture analysis of bed and bank materials, and visual observations of hill slopes around the check dams. Based on this study, silt tended to concentrate either in the middle portion of the reservoir or near the dam; however, silt accumulation did not always occur along the dam or in the deepest portion of the reservoirs. Areas located downstream from these check dams are heavily used for various human activities and the channel network has almost been eliminated. While these earthen check dams may be cost-effective tools for water conservation in economically marginalized areas, if abandoned, these structures may pose a physical hazard to downstream communities. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves

Empirical fragility curves, constructed from databases of thousands of building-damage observations, are commonly used for earthquake risk assessments, particularly in Europe and Japan, where building stocks are often difficult to model analytically (e.g. old masonry structures or timber dwellings). Curves from different studies, however, display considerable differences, which lead to high uncertainty in the assessed seismic risk. One potential reason for this dispersion is the almost universal neglect of the spatial variability in ground motions and the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction. In this paper, databases of building damage are simulated using ground-motion fields that take account of spatial variability and a known fragility curve. These databases are then inverted, applying a standard approach for the derivation of empirical fragility curves, and the difference with the known curve is studied. A parametric analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of various assumptions on the results. By this approach, it is concluded that ground-motion variability leads to flatter fragility curves and that the epistemic uncertainty in the ground-motion prediction equation used can have a dramatic impact on the derived curves. Without dense ground-motion recording networks in the epicentral area empirical curves will remain highly uncertain. Moreover, the use of aggregated damage observations appears to substantially increase uncertainty in the empirical fragility assessment. In contrast, the use of limited randomly-chosen un-aggregated samples in the affected area can result in good predictions of fragility.     

汶川地震中绵阳市梓潼县水库土坝震害调查与分析

5·12汶川特大地震对绵阳市梓潼县170座水库造成了不同程度的破坏和严重的经济损失.依据绵阳市梓潼县水库地震灾害的现场科学考察资料,对绵阳市梓潼县48座高危以上险情水库土坝的震损情况做了初步总结和分析.典型震害现象包括裂缝、渗漏以及泄水建筑物和附属设施的损毁等;以梓潼县3座典型震损水库土坝为例,总结了震损水库的特点和经验教训,给出了一些建设性结论.     

Study on the assessment of the comprehensive benefits of the utilization of sediment resources in reservoir areas

The utilization of sediment in reservoirs as resources is an efficient way to reduce reservoir sedi-mentation and turn disadvantage into benefit. Based on economic, social and ecological functions of sediment resources, this paper puts forward a two-layer, three-dimensional evaluation index system. It also establishes six direct and indirect indicators with their formulas to calculate the comprehensive benefits of sediment utilization in the Xixiayuan reservoir of the Yellow River with a volume of 2000 m3. The results show that social benefits would be more prominent, with the ecological benefits coming second. This demonstrates that the indirect public value of utilizing the sediment resources in the Yellow River Basin can be far greater than its direct economic value.     

大别山库区降水预报性能评估及应用对策

对降水预报进行性能评估及应用对策研究可以更好地发挥降水预报在水库调度中的决策支持作用.基于大别山库区近10 a汛期(2007—2016年5月1日—9月30日)24~168 h共7个预见期降水预报和地面降水观测资料,采用正确率、TS评分、概率统计、ROC曲线以及CTS等方法评估大别山库区降水预报性能,并以响洪甸水库为重点研究区域分析降水预报在水库调度中的应用对策.结果表明:1)大别山库区各量级的降水预报都有正预报技巧;24~72 h预见期降水预报的TS评分较高且空报率、漏报率也较低,具有较高的预报性能;但96 h及以上预见期降水预报性能明显下降,中雨以上量级空报率、漏报率较大,特别是对大暴雨及其以上量级的降水预报性能显著下降.2)大别山库区预报降水量级与实况降水量级基本符合,预报降水量级大于等于实况降水量级的概率超过75%;虽然降水预报量级上呈现出过度预报的现象,但降水过程预报对水库调度仍有较好的应用价值,应用时要考虑到降水预报量级可能存在偏差.3)转折性天气预报96 h及以上预见期CTS评分较低,但72 h以内预见期的性能明显改进,尤其是24 h预见期CTS评分也提高到了38.2%;水库调度可从长预见期的降水预报获取降水过程及其可能发生转折的信息,根据短预见期的降水预报进行调度方案调整.     

Computation of degradation factors of p-y curves in liquefiable soils for analysis of piles using three-dimensional finite-element model

This paper presents a procedure to compute the values of degradation factors of p-y curves in the pseudo-static analysis of piles in liquefiable soils. Three-dimensional finite-element model was used for the computation of p and y values using OpenSees computer package. The piles were modeled using beam-column elements and elastic section. The soil continuum was modeled using brick elements and a two-surface plasticity model. By comparing the results of models in two cases of liquefiable and non-liquefiable, values of degradation factors were obtained. Validation of the degradation factors computed was conducted through the centrifuge test results. The simulation results showed a similar trend between degradation factor variation in different densities and sands. With increasing depth, the degradation factor increased. By comparing the results of pseudo-static analysis with the centrifuge test results, it was concluded that the use of the p-y curves with computed degradation factors in liquefiable sand gave reasonable results.     

富含煤层气储层的叠前地震反演预测方法研究——以山西晋东南测区为例

叠前地震反演技术能够将地震中振幅、偏移距和入射角等多种有效信息与油气的敏感参数结合起来,在有效识别油气藏“甜点”方面虽发挥了重要的作用,但对于煤层气的有效预测仍需研究.针对煤层气与石油天然气的赋存地质条件不同,本文以山西沁水盆地煤层气地震资料为例,借鉴叠前地震反演技术的多参数预测思想,通过模型正演和实测资料处理,得到纵波、横波速度和密度等不同的数据体,利用数据体和弹性参数关系式,采用Aki&Richard近似公式与叠前宽角度反演联合的方法,寻找出富含煤层气储层的敏感参数.从而实现富含煤层气储层的有效预测.经与测井曲线结果对比,吻合率较高,说明了该方法具有可行性与实用性.     

A simplified storm index method to extrapolate intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for ungauged stations in central Chile

Most of meteorological stations in Chile register rainfall amounts once every 24 h. The creation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves requires continuous recorded data, and this insufficiency of proper instrumentation has resulted in a lack of IDF curves nationwide. The objective of this study is to further develop and evaluate the feasibility of a new method to estimate IDF curves in ungauged stations under Mediterranean climates of central Chile. A technique used to address this problem is the use of a storm index (S_I), also known as the ‘K’ method, which allows the construction of IDF curves from stations with discontinuous data, by extrapolating data from stations with continuous records, as long as daily rainfall intensities for both stations differ by less than 2 mm h^?1. To test the applicability of this method, S_I values were calculated for 40 meteorological stations located throughout Central Chile (latitudes 30°S to 40°S). The extrapolated IDF curves were then compared with observed data, and the goodness of fit was determined. The results indicate that the storm index method can adequately estimate hourly IDF curve values for stations lacking of continuous rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A design procedure for buildings equipped with energy dissipation devices using nonclassical damping and iso-performance curves

This article describes a design procedure for elastic buildings equipped with linear and nonlinear energy dissipating devices. The objective is to achieve a design that responds to a target building performance following a simple and robust step-by-step algorithm. The proposed procedure identifies first the modal significance of key design performance indicators and controls the modal properties by solving a singular two-parameter eigenvalue problem. For that purpose, a new modal significance metric is proposed, and a target frequency shift and damping ratio for the complete structure are obtained from the so-called iso-performance design curves. The design algorithm employs linear-equivalent stiffness and damping properties, which are then transformed into parameters characterizing inelastic force-deformation constitutive models corresponding to physical devices. The design algorithm leads to an optimal damper distribution corresponding to the minimum global amount of supplemental equivalent damping needed to achieve a maximum modal perturbation. The design procedure is first demonstrated using a five-story building example and then a real and complex 22-story free-plan building with two towers of rhomboid-shape plan with a very singular dynamic behavior.     

基于EFDC模型的河道型水库藻类生长对流域污染负荷削减的响应——以广东长潭水库为例

将环境(EFDC)模型应用于广东梅州的河道型水库——长潭水库,经过模型的验证,建立长潭水库水生态数学模型,模拟出水库在现状污染负荷下的藻类生长情况,以叶绿素a浓度为指标,研究水库在丰水年与枯水年富营养化改善程度对不同流域污染削减方案的响应关系.结果表明:现状污染负荷削减10%,在丰水年库尾、库中和库首点位的叶绿素a平均浓度分别降低13.99%、12.00%和10.35%;枯水年3个代表点位叶绿素a平均浓度分别下降8.42%、5.63%和2.10%.污染削减20%的情况下,丰水年3个代表点位的叶绿素a浓度分别降低26.78%、19.25%和17.04%,枯水年对应的降低幅度分别为11.72%、7.97%和5.12%;库尾地区表现出河道的特征,在污染负荷削减的情况下藻类生长能够受到有效遏制,库首地区则表现出湖泊的特性,枯水年这一特征表现更加突出,污染削减20%的情况下,叶绿素a的平均浓度仅降低5.12%.     

b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。     

Diagenetic signatures in the deltaic and fluvial-estuarine Messinian sandstone reservoirs in the Nile Delta as a tool for high-resolution stratigraphic correlations

The current study utilizes a range of diagenetic fingerprints to differentiate between sandstone facies deposited in the Nile Delta before and during the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC), which is normally a challenging task considering the complex bio- and lithostratigraphic subdivisions of Messinian rock units. Subaerial exposure of the pre-MSC (Qawasim deltaic sandstone), during drawdown of the Mediterranean Sea at the time of the MSC, triggered pervasive dissolution of unstable rock fragments, kaolinization of feldspar, and meteoric dolomitization of carbonate. This was followed by mesogenetic calcite cementation and kaolinite transformation into dickite in deeply buried Qawasim sandstone. Comparatively, the Abu Madi estuarine facies, deposited during transgression after drawdown related to the MSC, is characterized by eogenetic iron (Fe)-calcite, glauconite, and pyrite (averages of 14.5%, 6%, and 2%, respectively). This facies transition is marked by abundance of mature glauconite (with potassium oxide (K₂O) at about 8%) whose content abates upward from the transgression surface. Moreover, the compositional variability of the Abu Madi sandstone gave rise to multiple diagenetic trajectories that resulted in chlorite formation presumably following smectite and kaolinite. Listed diagenetic variations in the studied Messinian sandstone resulted from a complex interplay between rocks’ compositional, depositional, and burial attributes, ultimately serving as a basis for high-resolution stratigraphic correlation in continental and marginal marine settings with poor biostratigraphic controls.     

广州市部分城区地震小区划和震害预测

在特大城市开展地震小区划和震害预测在我国是一次新的尝试。广州密集的建筑物群、到处耸立的高楼大厦、横贯市区的高架路桥和立交桥,是其它中小城市不具有的。海量的数据资源、复杂的空间结构给地震灾害分析、空间数据处理带来了诸多挑战,在数据资料调查收集、分析处理技术、信息系统开发平台等方面要求更高,加深了研究难度。介绍了广州市部分城区地震小区划和震害预测的工作区概况、研究方法和内容及成果特点。     

Impact of tidal power dams upon tides and environmental conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk

The transformation of natural tidal sea-level and currents is studied resulting from large-scale tidal power plant (TPP) dams in bays of the Sea of Okhotsk (SO). Some effects due to this transformation are estimated based on predictive modelling and a number of expected changes in amplitudes and phases, and spectral composition of tidal oscillations are described. Changes of morphometric properties of basins change the character of tidal motions even on significant distance from a dam. That is why, it is impossible to estimate this impact as usual boundary-value problems. The problem is solved based on “impedance” conditions on the open boundary of the model area, allowing to take into account the radiation of the additional perturbations induced by both waves reflected from the dam and nonlinear effects inside the area. In general, the transformation effects are proportional to the dam size and depend essentially on the dam location, the creation of which can change dissipative and resonance properties of the bays. The changes in tidal energetics of SO due to the dam construction are also considered to show noticeable reconstruction of horizontal energy fluxes and changes in the energy dissipation. Possible environmental consequences are related mainly to the transformation of tidal currents.     

核电厂选址地震安全评价中的发震构造与能动断层

本文主要根据《黄河黑山峡河段地震地质补充论证工作报告》1,对黄河黑山峡河段大柳树坝址区主要地震地质问题,包括1709年中卫7?级地震的地表破裂带长度,F201断层的规模,坝址区F3、F7断层晚更新世以来是否被F201断层“牵动”,坝址区不同级别断层的深浅构造关系等主要方面的研究进展作一概要介绍。2     

三峡库区蓄水运行前后水土流失时空变化模拟及分析

利用三峡库区水土流失预测模型和250m的MODIS-NDVI数据,模拟三峡库区蓄水运行前后水土流失时空变化,结果表明:三峡库区2000-2008年水土流失波动较大,总体上水土流失面积、总量和强度都旱减弱趋势,2006-2008年年均水土流失总量和面积分别比2000-2002年减少4.10×106t和1129.6km2;...     

Deep learning approaches for improving prediction of daily stream temperature in data-scarce,unmonitored, and dammed basins

Basin-centric long short-term memory (LSTM) network models have recently been shown to be an exceptionally powerful tool for stream temperature (T_s) temporal prediction (training in one period and predicting in another period at the same sites). However, spatial extrapolation is a well-known challenge to modelling T_s and it is uncertain how an LSTM-based daily T_s model will perform in unmonitored or dammed basins. Here we compiled a new benchmark dataset consisting of >400 basins across the contiguous United States in different data availability groups (DAG, meaning the daily sampling frequency) with and without major dams, and studied how to assemble suitable training datasets for predictions in basins with or without temperature monitoring. For prediction in unmonitored basins (PUB), LSTM produced a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.129°C and an R² of 0.983. While these metrics declined from LSTM's temporal prediction performance, they far surpassed traditional models' PUB values, and were competitive with traditional models' temporal prediction on calibrated sites. Even for unmonitored basins with major reservoirs, we obtained a median RMSE of 1.202°C and an R² of 0.984. For temporal prediction, the most suitable training set was the matching DAG that the basin could be grouped into (for example, the 60% DAG was most suitable for a basin with 61% data availability). However, for PUB, a training dataset including all basins with data was consistently preferred. An input-selection ensemble moderately mitigated attribute overfitting. Our results indicate there are influential latent processes not sufficiently described by the inputs (e.g., geology, wetland covers), but temporal fluctuations can still be predicted well, and LSTM appears to be a highly accurate T_s modelling tool even for spatial extrapolation.     

基于变异系数法的甘肃省防震减灾规划编制评估方法研究

防震减灾规划编制质量的评估将是防震减灾规划研究的重要内容。借鉴美国、日本的防灾规划评估标准和方法,选取防震减灾规划编制的科学性、完备性、指导性、前瞻性、协调性、可行性和更新机制七个评估指标,应用变异系数法、专家打分法和综合评价模型探索研究甘肃省防震减灾规划编制的评估方法。     

中外几次重要地震预测与预报结果之启示

简述了地震预测的方法与类别, 回顾了20世纪70年代以来国内外几次重要地震预测预报实践特别是地震短临预测预报的情况, 从中凸显了地震短临预报的困难以及对挽救生命的重要性和社会需求的紧迫性. 通过对上述国内外一些大地震预报预测(海城地震、 唐山地震、 日本地震、 美国帕克菲尔德试验场的地震预报实践和汶川地震等)的成功与失败的解读, 试图得到一些有益的启示: 地震预测与预报, 尤其是地震短临预测与预报虽然困难, 但并不是不可能的, 事实说明它存在着很大的可能性.