剑河县烟花爆竹储存仓库雷电风险评估及防雷设计建议

运用概率统计分析方法对贵州剑河县烟花爆竹储存仓库进行雷电风险评估,计算出该仓库高于风险容许值,需要对建筑物进行防雷保护.在采用完善的直击雷防护措施的前提下,着重考虑雷击电磁脉冲对仓库人员生命和财产安全的影响,提出采用屏蔽、共用接地系统、等电位连接、合理布线、加装浪涌保护器等综合技术.实施该方案可使建筑物的雷击损害降到最低程度,为仓库监控系统安全可靠运行提供保障.     

某市地税稽查征管、征收中心防雷工程设计

该文综合考虑地税稽查征管征收中心所在地雷暴活动特点及其内部信息系统的重要性等因素,对建筑物雷电防护等级划分、外部防雷措施和内部防雷措施等技术和方法进行了研究.针对该中心大楼设计了一套综合防雷的方案,在采用完善的直击雷防护措施的前提下,着重考虑雷击电磁脉冲对建筑内部信息系统的影响,提出采用屏蔽、共用接地系统、等电位连接、合理布线、加装SPD等综合技术.实施该方案可使建筑物的雷击损害降到最低程度,为大楼内部的信息系统安全可靠运行提供保障.     

粤剧艺术博物馆的防雷设计措施初探

从气象雷电防御视角对仿古建筑群粤剧艺术博物馆的防雷类别进行了划分,结果表明:该建筑群划分为第1级防雷古建筑,2类防雷建筑物。对建筑主体防雷措施进行了设计,根据其工艺和自身特点,对建筑的直击雷接闪、引下线、等电位连接和内部防雷等进行了设计。     

建筑物雷击次数等效截收面积计算方法

采用滚球法,结合规范的有关规定,分析了周边建筑物对所考虑的建筑物等效面积的影响.在周边建筑物与所考虑的建筑物平行且忽略建筑物宽度的条件下,详细讨论了建筑物低于100 m时周边有等高、比它高和比它低的其他建筑物3种情况下,与建筑物截收相同雷击次数的等效面积的计算方法,并推导出计算公式.在此基础上,与规范规定的计算公式进行了对比,指出了规范中计算公式的局限性.该研究结果可满足更精细的防雷技术工作需要.     

建筑物对大气污染物扩散影响的大涡模拟

利用一个大涡模式对一个方形建筑物周围的气流场进行了模拟,并与相应的风洞实验结果进行比较,对比结果表明大涡模拟方法可以精细地反映建筑物周围的流场特征.在此基础上,将拉格朗日随机游动扩散模式与大涡模式相结合,对在受建筑物影响的气流场中的大气污染物扩散进行模拟,模拟结果表明该方法可以很好地模拟出在建筑物影响下的气流变形所引起的各种污染物散布情况.建筑物周围的气流结构特性使得建筑物顶部污染源位置的细小变化可能造成建筑物周围污染物分布形势的很大不同,特别是对建筑物背风侧的空腔区内地面污染物浓度有着很大的影响.当排放     

雷击灾害风险评估中等效截收面积计算方法研究

建筑物等效截收面积的计算直接影响到对该建筑物年预计雷击次数的计算,进而影响到对该建筑物雷击风险评估的准确性。《建筑物防雷设计规范》给出的建筑物等效截收面积的计算方法,适用于高点延伸范围大于低点延伸范围的建筑物等效截收面积的计算,用于计算低点延伸范围大于高点延伸范围的建筑物等效截收面积却不尽合理。鉴于此,提出了优化的计算方法：由建筑物高点和低点计算的等效面积之和,减去滚球法计算出的保护范围面积,得到修正后的等效面积,该方法考虑了中高层建筑的引雷作用,计算结果更接近实际。     

紫金县苏区镇“4·29”雷击事故分析及防御对策

根据2015年4月29日21:00发生在河源市紫金县苏区镇的一次雷击事故,运用天气雷达资料、闪电监测定位记录统计资料,结合雷击事故现场的破坏状况、地理环境、设施状况,逐一进行分析。结果表明,该次雷击事故是建筑物没有安装必要的防雷设施,而建筑物天面的雷电导体——金属水箱直接遭受雷击引起的雷电破坏;同时,本着"科学指导,防重于治"的原则,对该建筑物乃至农村楼房就直击雷防护和雷电电磁脉冲(LEMP)防护等方面提出整改意见。     

基于闪电数据的雷击建筑物物理损害概率研究

采用IEEE(institute of electrical and electronics engineers,美国电气和电子工程师协会)提供的公式对河池市2010年1月—2017年12月的闪电数据进行雷电流累积频率拟合,结合电气-几何模型(EGM)建立了与建筑物、接闪器特性参数有关的雷击建筑物物理损害概率(PB)计算公式,将此公式用于计算建筑物PB值,结果比国际电工委员会提出的评估标准IEC 62305推荐的参考值更具准确性。利用该方法对河池市PB进行了区划,为防雷技术评价提供了可靠参考。     

雷击风险评估中的位置因子Cd的探讨

从周边建筑物对所考虑建筑物的扩大宽度影响的角度,分析了周边有等高、更低或更高的其他建筑物3种情况下,周边建筑物对所考虑的建筑物截收面积的实际影响.在此基础上提出了周边建筑物的高度、相对位置、环绕程度等均对建筑物截收面积有较大影响,并不能将其乘以一个恒定的位置因子作为考虑了周边建筑物的影响,应根据建筑物所处环境的实际情况的不同做更为精确的计算,以提高风险评估的准确性.     

城市建筑物动力冠层方案的引入及应用研究

文中将建筑物动力冠层方案引入到城市边界层精细模式中,该方案描叙了城市地Ⅸ建筑物对气流的拖曳作用以及建筑物形态对城市地区湍流活动动量输送的影响.采用建筑物拖曳法和建筑物动力冠层方案两种不同建筑物动力学处理方法对北京地区东南部进行模拟,通过城市地区水平风速的模拟结果与自动气象站实测资料对比发现模拟结果与实测相当吻合,建筑物动力冠层方案的引入能够更好地实施对城市地区的水平风速分布的数值模拟.分别采用建筑物拖曳法与建筑物动力冠层方案对一个实际小规模城市进行模拟试验,分析表明引入建筑物动力冠层方案可以模拟出小规模城市地区水平风速偏低的现象;还可以模拟出城市地区建筑物动力作用对湍流活动的影响;对湍流动能模拟结果表明比较符合实际分布情形.采用建筑物动力冠层方案对小规模城市地区建筑物高度变化对城市地区的流场及湍流活动的影响进行模拟分析,结果表明:城市地区建筑物高度增加,风速变小,但是高大建筑物底部风速略高于低矮建筑物底部;城市地区大气湍能增加,高大建筑物底部湍能较小,冠层高度内湍能随高度增加而增加;同时城市地Ⅸ的垂直扩散系数也随建筑物高度增加而增加;城市地区污染物排放高度处污染物浓度较低,下游乡村地区地面污染物浓度较低,但高空污染物浓度却较高.     

一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究 ——以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例

文章综合考虑中国区域范围内降雨时空分布特征以及地理地貌等特征,将全国降雨区划分为4大类,在此基础上,得出不同降雨类区暴雨致灾因子的强度等级评定方法;同时,研究确定了与暴雨灾害密切相关的地形高程、高程标准差、河网密度、土壤类型等环境脆弱性影响要素,并对各类要素分别进行了分级评定;将各类环境脆弱性影响要素结合暴雨致灾因子要素,运用加权求和方法建立了暴雨灾害综合风险评估模型;并结合GIS技术,将城市、农村人口分布情况、用地等数据叠加到风险分布格局中,最终分析得出不同风险等级下影响的城市和农村人口数量、土地面积等内容。该评估模型相较于以往其他暴雨风险评估模型,其适用范围更广,可以适用于全国范围内的任意区域暴雨灾害风险评估;实时评估业务能力更强,将该模型结合降雨实况资料或预报资料可以对全国任意区域降雨灾害综合风险进行事后、跟踪评估或预评估;评估对象更有针对性,结合GIS技术,可以针对得出的风险分布结果分别给出不同风险等级范围内的承灾体受影响的定量评估结果。     

农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

农业气象灾害风险研究既是灾害学和农业气象学领域中研究的热点, 又是当前政府相关管理部门和农业生产部门亟需的应用性较强的课题。农业气象灾害风险评估的理论和方法进展很快, 但尚没有文献对相关研究做出较为系统的论述。为全面了解农业气象灾害风险评估的研究现状, 在综合分析近30年来相关文献的基础上, 对农业气象灾害风险评估方面所取得的研究成果进行了总结和评述, 指出了当前研究的一些不足, 并对今后农业气象灾害风险评估研究的趋势进行了展望。首先对农业气象灾害风险评估研究的历史进行了回顾;重点阐述了农业气象灾害风险评估的主要内容, 包括致灾因子的危险性评估, 承灾体脆弱或易损性评估, 灾情期望损失评估和灾害风险综合评估;归纳出农业气象灾害风险评估研究中采用的3类主要方法——基于指标的综合评估方法、基于数据的概率评估方法以及基于情景模拟的评估方法;最后对农业气象灾害风险评估目前存在的问题和未来可能的研究方向进行了探讨。     

Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design

Environmental assessments generate and/or collect individual research efforts to answer policy-relevant questions and otherwise provide technical advice to decision-makers, typically legislators, international negotiators and regulators. Though one might think first of assessments in terms of the reports that they often produce, the implications of scientific assessment are better understood by viewing assessments as a social processes, rather than principally as a document. Assessment processes are embedded in different sorts of institutional settings, within which scientists, decision-makers, and advocates communicate to define relevant questions for analysis, mobilize certain kinds of experts and expertise, and interpret findings in particular ways. This social process perspective on assessment directs attention beyond the content of assessment reports to encompass questions the design of the social process. In this paper, we focus on four elements of assessment design that are too frequently under-appreciated: assessment context and initiation, science–policy interaction, participation in assessment processes, and assessment capacity. We show how widely these elements vary across five different assessments and discuss the implications of this variation.     

基于ArcGIS的网格化雷电灾害风险评估方法研究与应用*

结合镇海区实际，开展大片区建（构）筑物网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型构建与应用，解决雷电灾害风险评估仅停留在依据灾后损失指标的单体建（构）筑物风险分布评估情况。在常规电气—几何雷电灾害风险评估模型基础上创新应用，引入地理信息处理技术将评估区域进行网格化分割，建立格点内包含建（构）筑物高度及其梯度、土壤电阻率及其梯度、直击雷防护效率、有效截收面积、地闪密度、电子电气设备系统、人口密度、火灾风险等指标在内的多层次网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型，并以辖区某化工企业厂区雷电灾害风险评估为例，对模型实践可行性应用示例。结果表明：对各指标数据集综合分析计算并运用ArcGIS风险区划，结合厂区功能布局特点分析评价，结果与市级雷电灾害风险评估报告、省级雷电易发区划基本一致。采用地理信息技术网格化处理大范围、跨区域雷电灾害风险评估方法，从“点”到“面”建立数学模型，对评估区域范围及扩展范围的雷电灾害风险评估、风险区划、政府决策支持等具有指导意义。     

小区域热浪风险陛评估方法述评

文章对国内外热浪和热浪风险性评估的研究成果和方法进行了,综述,最后提出了一种基于层次分析法的小区域热浪风险性评估方法。     

Framework for integrated assessments of global warming impacts

This paper provides a framework for integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and sets the stage for papers that follow in this volume. Integrated assessments are used to organize large quantities of technical information bearing on complex issues (environmental and others) in ways that facilitate application of the information in decision making and policy setting. Any integrated assessment must be based on the best available information. For that reason this paper includes a ‘primer’ on the current (and presumably best available) understanding of the science underlying climatic change. The remainder of the paper describes the component parts of one possible framework for integrated assessment.     

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments.     

Dependable dynamism: lessons for designing scientific assessment processes in consensus negotiations

Negotiations that involve the use and interpretation of scientific information and assessment are often particularly difficult, especially when the scientific input is uncertain or contested. Parties can exploit this uncertainty in order to stall progress, where they might prefer a very different policy outcome. In addition, scientific input often changes as new research is done and disseminated. In order to facilitate decision-making where science is involved, a number of international environmental agreements have established regimes, as well as assessment processes, that are designed to incorporate new information, review decisions, and modify judgments—that is, they are dynamic or adaptable. However, there is little systematic evaluation by policymakers or academic analysts of the type and qualities of such dynamism that might contribute to effective assessment and regulatory processes, or of whether this lesson is truly applicable across very different environmental issues. Examination of the recent protocol on persistent organic pollutants to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), in comparison to LRTAPs two previous protocols on sulfur emissions, offers a way to compare across different types of issues whether and how “adaptable” assessment processes influence consensus negotiations. The results of this comparison indicate that a type of adaptability likely to facilitate decision-making is “dependable dynamism”—the quality of assessment and decision-making processes that allows policymakers with ease to put off particular decisions for addressing in the future, with confidence that issues so put off will indeed be addressed later. The ability to modify such conclusions at a later time facilitates decision-making processes by offering a new dimension of compromise on both scientific assessment and policy decisions, and lowering the threshold of credibility necessary for decision-making.     

几种先进大气环境影响评价的技术方法概述

近年来,我国大气污染问题凸显,大气环境越来越受到重视,对大气环境影响评价的要求也越来越高,因而,引入一些新的方法能更全面和细致地评价大气环境影响。本文基于法规模式体系,介绍在实际环评工作中用到的四种方法,包括足迹(footprint)函数法、四维通量法、源解析法和动画演示法,对其原理和适用范围进行了描述。这些方法以大气导则推荐的模式系统为基础,从不同视角深入地描述大气污染物的运动和分布特征,在大气环评工作中可根据实际问题的需要选择合适的方法进行大气环境影响的分析与评估研究。     

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.