A hybrid framework for improving recharge and discharge estimation for a three-dimensional groundwater flow model

We employed the ArcGIS plug-in package PRO-GRADE (Lin et al. 2009), developed for zonation of recharge/discharge (R/D) for modeling two-dimensional aquifer systems, to develop alternative R/D zonations for an existing three-dimensional groundwater flow model of a complex hydrogeologic setting. Our process began by intersecting PRO-GRADE output with the existing model's 4-zone R/D representation to develop a model having 12 R/D zones (R12) and then calibrating the resulting model using PEST. We then revised the R12 zonation using supplementary GIS data to develop a 51-zone R/D zonation (R51). From R51, we developed a series of daughter models having 40, 30, 28, and 18 R/D zones by removing zones from R51 if calibration resulted in little change in the zone's starting R/D rate and/or if the model was insensitive to the zone's R/D rate. For these models (R40N, R30N, R28N, and R18N), we used the ArcGIS Nibble tool to rapidly and consistently reassign model cells within eliminated zones of R51 to the zone of the nearest model cell in a retained zone having the same starting value. R12, R51, R40N, R30N, R28N, and R18N are all more accurate than the original model (R4), although improvements relative to stream discharge targets exceeded improvements relative to head targets. The models also executed with better numerical stability and less mass balance discrepancy than R4. These improvements demonstrate that R/D estimation in a complex shallow three-dimensional steady-state model can be improved with PRO-GRADE estimates of R/D when guided by calibration statistics and supplemental geographic data.     

A digital procedure for ground water recharge and discharge pattern recognition and rate estimation

A digital procedure to estimate recharge/discharge rates that requires relatively short preparation time and uses readily available data was applied to a setting in central Wisconsin. The method requires only measurements of the water table, fluxes such as stream baseflows, bottom of the system, and hydraulic conductivity to delineate approximate recharge/discharge zones and to estimate rates. The method uses interpolation of the water table surface, recharge/discharge mapping, pattern recognition, and a parameter estimation model. The surface interpolator used is based on the theory of radial basis functions with thin-plate splines. The recharge/discharge mapping is based on a mass-balance calculation performed using MODFLOW. The results of the recharge/discharge mapping are critically dependent on the accuracy of the water table interpolation and the accuracy and number of water table measurements. The recharge pattern recognition is performed with the help of a graphical user interface (GUI) program based on several algorithms used in image processing. Pattern recognition is needed to identify the recharge/discharge zonations and zone the results of the mapping method. The parameter estimation program UCODE calculates the parameter values that provide a best fit between simulated heads and flows and calibration head-and-flow targets. A model of the Buena Vista Ground Water Basin in the Central Sand Plains of Wisconsin is used to demonstrate the procedure.     

Heat as a ground water tracer

Heat carried by ground water serves as a tracer to identify surface water infiltration, flow through fractures, and flow patterns in ground water basins. Temperature measurements can be analyzed for recharge and discharge rates, the effects of surface warming, interchange with surface water, hydraulic conductivity of streambed sediments, and basin-scale permeability. Temperature data are also used in formal solutions of the inverse problem to estimate ground water flow and hydraulic conductivity. The fundamentals of using heat as a ground water tracer were published in the 1960s, but recent work has significantly expanded the application to a variety of hydrogeological settings. In recent work, temperature is used to delineate flows in the hyporheic zone, estimate submarine ground water discharge and depth to the salt-water interface, and in parameter estimation with coupled ground water and heat-flow models. While short reviews of selected work on heat as a ground water tracer can be found in a number of research papers, there is no critical synthesis of the larger body of work found in the hydrogeological literature. The purpose of this review paper is to fill that void and to show that ground water temperature data and associated analytical tools are currently underused and have not yet realized their full potential.     

The effects of climatic variability on estimates of recharge from temperature profiles

Using heat as a tracer allows for estimation of ground water recharge rates based on subsurface temperature measurements. While possible in theory, it may be difficult in practice to discriminate the effects of climate from the effects of ground water advection. This study uses synthetic simulations to determine the influence of variability of ground surface temperature (GST) on the ability to estimate vertical specific discharge from temperature profiles. Results suggest that in cases where temperature measurements are sufficiently deep and specific discharge is sufficiently high, estimates of specific discharges will be reasonably accurate. Increasing the number of times temperatures are measured, or producing models that incorporate variations in GST, will increase the reliability of any studies using temperatures to estimate specific discharge. Furthermore, inversions of temperature measurements should be combined with other methods of estimating recharge rates to improve the reliability of recharge estimates.     

Delineation of regional arid karstic aquifers: an integrative data approach

This research integrates data procedures for the delineation of regional ground water flow systems in arid karstic basins with sparse hydrogeologic data using surface topography data, geologic mapping, permeability data, chloride concentrations of ground water and precipitation, and measured discharge data. This integrative data analysis framework can be applied to evaluate arid karstic aquifer systems globally. The accurate delineation of ground water recharge areas in developing aquifer systems with sparse hydrogeologic data is essential for their effective long-term development and management. We illustrate the use of this approach in the Cuatrociénegas Basin (CCB) of Mexico. Aquifers are characterized using geographic information systems for ground water catchment delineation, an analytical model for interbasin flow evaluation, a chloride balance approach for recharge estimation, and a water budget for mapping contributing catchments over a large region. The test study area includes the CCB of Coahuila, Mexico, a UNESCO World Biosphere Reserve containing more than 500 springs that support ground water-dependent ecosystems with more than 70 endemic organisms and irrigated agriculture. We define recharge areas that contribute local and regional ground water discharge to springs and the regional flow system. Results show that the regional aquifer system follows a topographic gradient that during past pluvial periods may have linked the Río Nazas and the Río Aguanaval of the Sierra Madre Occidental to the Río Grande via the CCB and other large, currently dry, upgradient lakes.     

Changes in Projected Spatial and Seasonal Groundwater Recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is an important source of water in the western United States, supplying the needs of more than 38 million people in the United States and Mexico. Groundwater discharge to streams has been shown to be a critical component of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), particularly during low‐flow periods. Understanding impacts on groundwater in the basin from projected climate change will assist water managers in the region in planning for potential changes in the river and groundwater system. A previous study on changes in basin‐wide groundwater recharge in the UCRB under projected climate change found substantial increases in temperature, moderate increases in precipitation, and mostly periods of stable or slight increases in simulated groundwater recharge through 2099. This study quantifies projected spatial and seasonal changes in groundwater recharge within the UCRB from recent historical (1950 to 2015) through future (2016 to 2099) time periods, using a distributed‐parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections. Simulation results indicate that projected increases in basin‐wide recharge of up to 15% are not distributed uniformly within the basin or throughout the year. Northernmost subregions within the UCRB are projected an increase in groundwater recharge, while recharge in other mainly southern subregions will decline. Seasonal changes in recharge also are projected within the UCRB, with decreases of 50% or more in summer months and increases of 50% or more in winter months for all subregions, and increases of 10% or more in spring months for many subregions.     

Estimating deep recharge rates beneath an interlobate moraine using temperature logs

The Sandilands area of southeastern Manitoba contains an interlobate moraine that is a major ground water recharge area. Underlying the highly permeable sediments of the moraine are up to 100 m of till and the subcrop of the Winnipeg Formation, which contains a major sandstone aquifer. Ground water flow within the till is examined using high-resolution temperature profiles and solutions to the differential equation for heat flow in porous media. These analyses indicate that recharge to the sandstone aquifer is occurring at a rate of approximately 2 x 10(-8) m/sec beneath the moraine, which is in agreement with recharge rates determined by conventional ground water hydraulics (10(-7) to 10(-10)(m/sec) and another study using multiple environmental tracers (1 x 10(-9) to 6 X 10(-9) m/sec). The use of temperature to determine ground water flux is not limited by half-lives as many environmental tracers are, and this allows for cost-effective estimation of recharge and discharge rates over longer periods.     

Ground Water Remediation Using an Extraction, Treatment, and Recharge System

Ground water remediation of volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination at a site in Michigan was initiated as a result of a consent agreement between the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) and the responsible party. Under the direction of the MDNR, the responsible party conducted a remedial investigation/feasibility study using federal guidelines to define the extent of contamination at the site and to select a response action for site remediation. The selected alternative included a combination of ground water extraction, treatment, and recharge, and soil flushing. The extraction system withdraws ground water from various depths in heavily contaminated areas. The ground water is treated using an air stripper. A spray distribution system spreads effluent from the stripper over a recharge basin constructed over the most contaminated areas. Additional contaminant removal is achieved by volatilization from the spray and percolation through the gravel bed. Recharge water moves downward through the contaminated soils, thus flushing residual soil contaminants. The initial operating data demonstrated that the system can effectively remove trichloroethylene (TCE) from ground water (approximately 95 percent overall removal efficiency). The annualized capital and operation and maintenance (O & M) costs of the remedial action were estimated for several operating periods (15, 20, and 30 years).     

Modeling a Ground Water Circulation Well Alternative

Ground water circulation wells (GCWs) provide an appealing alternative to typical pump-and-treat ground water remediation systems because of the inherent resource-conservative nature of the GCW systems. GCW performance prediction is challenging because the consideration of extraction and recharge in a single well is unusual for most practitioners, the technology is relatively new, and a meaningful body of literature has not been published. A three-part evaluation process using state-of-the-practice numerical ground water flow and mass transport models was developed for application during GCW pilot studies at the former Nebraska Ordnance Plant site. A small-scale ground water flow model was developed during the pilot study planning process to predict the system performance and to locate performance-measuring monitoring wells. Key predictions included the capture zone predicted to develop upgradient of the GCW, the downgradierit GCW recharge zone, and the circulation zone centered on the GCW. The flow model was subsequently verified using ground water elevation data and contaminant concentration data collected during pilot study operation. Aquifer parameters were reestimated as a result of the verification process. Those parameter values were used as input to a larger scale model, which was used to develop a remedial alternative consisting of multiple GCW systems.     

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation.     

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.     

Important observations and parameters for a salt water intrusion model

Sensitivity analysis with a density-dependent ground water flow simulator can provide insight and understanding of salt water intrusion calibration problems far beyond what is possible through intuitive analysis alone. Five simple experimental simulations presented here demonstrate this point. Results show that dispersivity is a very important parameter for reproducing a steady-state distribution of hydraulic head, salinity, and flow in the transition zone between fresh water and salt water in a coastal aquifer system. When estimating dispersivity, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data types and locations considered. (1) The "toe" of the transition zone is the most effective location for hydraulic head and salinity observations. (2) Areas near the coastline where submarine ground water discharge occurs are the most effective locations for flow observations. (3) Salinity observations are more effective than hydraulic head observations. (4) The importance of flow observations aligned perpendicular to the shoreline varies dramatically depending on distance seaward from the shoreline. Extreme parameter correlation can prohibit unique estimation of permeability parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and flow parameters such as recharge in a density-dependent ground water flow model when using hydraulic head and salinity observations. Adding flow observations perpendicular to the shoreline in areas where ground water is exchanged with the ocean body can reduce the correlation, potentially resulting in unique estimates of these parameter values. Results are expected to be directly applicable to many complex situations, and have implications for model development whether or not formal optimization methods are used in model calibration.     

Modeling decadal timescale interactions between surface water and ground water in the central Everglades, Florida, USA

Surface-water and ground-water flow are coupled in the central Everglades, although the remoteness of this system has hindered many previous attempts to quantify interactions between surface water and ground water. We modeled flow through a 43,000 ha basin in the central Everglades called Water Conservation Area 2A. The purpose of the model was to quantify recharge and discharge in the basin's vast interior areas. The presence and distribution of tritium in ground water was the principal constraint on the modeling, based on measurements in 25 research wells ranging in depth from 2 to 37 m. In addition to average characteristics of surface-water flow, the model parameters included depth of the layer of ‘interactive’ ground water that is actively exchanged with surface water, average residence time of interactive ground water, and the associated recharge and discharge fluxes across the wetland ground surface. Results indicated that only a relatively thin (8 m) layer of the 60 m deep surfical aquifer actively exchanges surface water and ground water on a decadal timescale. The calculated storage depth of interactive ground water was 3.1 m after adjustment for the porosity of peat and sandy limestone. Modeling of the tritium data yielded an average residence time of 90 years in interactive ground water, with associated recharge and discharge fluxes equal to 0.01 cm d⁻¹. ³H/³He isotopic ratio measurements (which correct for effects of vertical mixing in the aquifer with deeper, tritium-dead water) were available from several wells, and these indicated an average residence time of 25 years, suggesting that residence time was overestimated using tritium measurements alone. Indeed, both residence time and storage depth would be expected to be overestimated due to vertical mixing. The estimate of recharge and discharge (0.01 cm d⁻¹) that resulted from tritium modeling therefore is still considered reliable, because the ratio of residence time and storage depth (used to calculated recharge and discharge) is much less sensitive to vertical mixing compared with residence time alone. We conclude that a small but potentially significant component of flow through the Everglades is recharged to the aquifer and stored there for years to decades before discharged back to surface water. Long-term storage of water and solutes in the ground-water system beneath the wetlands has implications for restoration of Everglades water quality.     

Ground water flow analysis of a mid-Atlantic outer coastal plain watershed, Virginia, U.S.A

Models for ground water flow (MODFLOW) and particle tracking (MODPATH) were used to determine ground water flow patterns, principal ground water discharge and recharge zones, and estimates of ground water travel times in an unconfined ground water system of an outer coastal plain watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia. By coupling recharge and discharge zones within the watershed, flowpath analysis can provide a method to locate and implement specific management strategies within a watershed to reduce ground water nitrogen loading to surface water. A monitoring well network was installed in Eyreville Creek watershed, a first-order creek, to determine hydraulic conductivities and spatial and temporal variations in hydraulic heads for use in model calibration. Ground water flow patterns indicated the convergence of flow along the four surface water features of the watershed; primary discharge areas were in the nontidal portions of the watershed. Ground water recharge zones corresponded to the surface water features with minimal development of a regional ground water system. Predicted ground water velocities varied between < 0.01 to 0.24 m/day, with elevated values associated with discharge areas and areas of convergence along surface water features. Some ground water residence times exceeded 100 years, although average residence times ranged between 16 and 21 years; approximately 95% of the ground water resource would reflect land use activities within the last 50 years.     

Heat flow maps and deep ground water circulation: Examples from Switzerland

The effect of regional and local ground water circulation systems on the Heat Flow Density (HFD) field is demonstrated by two examples from Switzerland, one near St. Gall in an area at the northern border of the Alps, and the other northwest of Zurich along the eastern end of the Jura mountains. Detailed HFD maps of both areas slow pronounced high heat flow zones which are attributed to discharge of subsurface water which has migrated laterally over several 10 km. Seepage velocities on the order of several mm/yr have been calculated. Geothermal information is not available about the infiltration zones where low HFD values are expected. Geochemical and isotopic analysis of water samples from springs and drillholes indicates the recharge zones and demonstrates the effect of extensive regional systems. These results indicate that in regions with significant topographic relief HFD mapping can be seriously biased if drillholes are positioned in valleys which correspond to discharge areas with relatively high HFD, whereas the low heat flow zones remain undetected.     

Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate

Transient recharge to the water table is often not well understood or quantified. Two approaches for simulating transient recharge in a ground water flow model were investigated using the Trout Lake watershed in north-central Wisconsin: (1) a traditional approach of adding recharge directly to the water table and (2) routing the same volume of water through an unsaturated zone column to the water table. Areas with thin (less than 1 m) unsaturated zones showed little difference in timing of recharge between the two approaches; when water was routed through the unsaturated zone, however, less recharge was delivered to the water table and more discharge occurred to the surface because recharge direction and magnitude changed when the water table rose to the land surface. Areas with a thick (15 to 26 m) unsaturated zone were characterized by multimonth lags between infiltration and recharge, and, in some cases, wetting fronts from precipitation events during the fall overtook and mixed with infiltration from the previous spring snowmelt. Thus, in thicker unsaturated zones, the volume of water infiltrated was properly simulated using the traditional approach, but the timing was different from simulations that included unsaturated zone flow. Routing of rejected recharge and ground water discharge at land surface to surface water features also provided a better simulation of the observed flow regime in a stream at the basin outlet. These results demonstrate that consideration of flow through the unsaturated zone may be important when simulating transient ground water flow in humid climates with shallow water tables.     

The response of playa and sabkha hydraulics and mineralogy to climate forcing

Dry playa lakes and sabkhat often represent the terminus of large ground water flow systems and act as integrators of both upgradient (recharge) and downgradient discharge (evaporation). Ground water levels beneath playa/sabkha systems show a variety of surprising responses driven by large evaporation demands and chemical processes not typically encountered in more humid regions. When the water table is very close to the land surface, almost instantaneous rises can be observed with little observed change in either upgradient ground water recharge or potential evaporation. Conversely, when water tables are several meters below the playa surface, water table responses to interannual variability of recharge can be damped and lag significantly behind such changes. This review of the dynamics of shallow water tables in playa lakes and sabkhat discusses the pertinent hydraulic and solute processes and extracts a simple but comprehensive model based on soil physics for predicting the water table response to either upstream recharge changes or changes in potential evaporation at the playa/sabkha. Solutes and associated authigenic minerals are also shown to be important in discriminating both the causes and effects of water level fluctuations.     

Methods of groundwater recharge estimation in eastern Mediterranean—a water balance model application in Greece,Cyprus and Jordan

Groundwater recharge studies in semi‐arid areas are fundamental because groundwater is often the only water resource of importance. This paper describes the water balance method of groundwater recharge estimation in three different hydro‐climatic environments in eastern Mediterranean, in northwest Greece (Aliakmonas basin/Koromilia basin), in Cyprus (Kouris basin and Larnaka area) and in Jordan (northern part of Jordan). For the Aliakmonas basin, groundwater recharge was calculated for different sub‐catchments. For the Upper Aliakmonas basin (Koromilia basin), a watershed‐distributed model was developed and recharge maps were generated on a daily basis. The mean annual recharge varied between 50 and 75 mm/year (mean annual rainfall 800 mm/year). In Cyprus, the mean groundwater recharge estimates yielded 70 mm/year in the Kouris basin. In the Larnaka area, groundwater recharge ranged from 30 mm/year (lowland) to 200 mm/year (mountains). In Jordan, the results indicated recharge rates ranging from 80 mm/year for very permeable karstified surfaces in the upper part of the Salt basin, where rainfall reaches 500 mm/year to less than 10 mm/year and to only about 1 mm/year in the southernmost part of the basin. For the north part of Jordan, a watershed‐distributed model was developed and recharge maps were generated. This water balance model was used for groundwater recharge estimations in many regions with different climatic conditions and has provided reliable results. It has turned out to be an important tool for the management of the limited natural water resources, which require a detailed understanding of regional hydro(geo)logical processes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Sea Water Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers

Despite its purported importance, previous studies of the influence of sea-level rise on coastal aquifers have focused on specific sites, and a generalized systematic analysis of the general case of the sea water intrusion response to sea-level rise has not been reported. In this study, a simple conceptual framework is used to provide a first-order assessment of sea water intrusion changes in coastal unconfined aquifers in response to sea-level rise. Two conceptual models are tested: (1) flux-controlled systems, in which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level, and (2) head-controlled systems, whereby ground water abstractions or surface features maintain the head condition in the aquifer despite sea-level changes. The conceptualization assumes steady-state conditions, a sharp interface sea water-fresh water transition zone, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge. In the case of constant flux conditions, the upper limit for sea water intrusion due to sea-level rise (up to 1.5 m is tested) is no greater than 50 m for typical values of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and aquifer depth. This is in striking contrast to the constant head cases, in which the magnitude of salt water toe migration is on the order of hundreds of meters to several kilometers for the same sea-level rise. This study has highlighted the importance of inland boundary conditions on the sea-level rise impact. It identifies combinations of hydrogeologic parameters that control whether large or small salt water toe migration will occur for any given change in a hydrogeologic variable.