乌伦古湖水体矿化度和氟化物浓度的年际变化及模拟

为研究乌伦古湖矿化度和氟化物浓度与各水量因子间的定量关系,本研究以水量平衡和物质平衡为基础,把影响湖水水质的原因分为降雨、蒸发、河流补给、地下水补给以及地下水流出5个水量因子,定量分析湖水矿化度和氟化物浓度与各水量因子之间的关系,并且预测了湖水矿化度和氟化物浓度的动态变化.结果表明,地下水输出流量决定了湖水中矿化度和氟化物浓度,地下水输出流量越大,湖水中的矿化度和氟化物浓度越小.2010年至今乌伦古湖水位的升高导致了地下水输出流量增大,乌伦古湖内的矿化度和氟化物浓度均呈缓慢下降趋势,模型预测新的稳态下湖水中矿化度为1.68 g/L,氟化物浓度为1.70 mg/L,在地下水输出流量不变的情况下达到新的稳态所需时间大约为50 a.     

鄱阳湖流域径流模型

流域径流是鄱阳湖主要来水,建立鄱阳湖流域径流模型对揭示湖泊水量平衡及其受流域自然和人类活动的影响具有重要意义.针对鄱阳湖-流域系统的特点:流域面积大(16.22×104km2)、多条入湖河流、湖滨区坡面入湖径流等,研究了相应的模拟方法,建立了考虑流域土壤属性和土地利用空间变化的鄱阳湖流域分布式径流模型.采用6个水文站1991-2001年的实测河道径流对模型进行了率定和验证.结果显示,模型整体模拟精度较高.其中,赣江、信江和饶河均取得了较好的模拟结果,月效率系数为0.82-0.95;抚河和修水模拟精度略低,为0.65-0.78.模型揭示了研究时段内年平均入湖径流总量为1623×108m3,其中,赣江最多,占47%,其次为信江和抚河,分别占13%和12%,湖滨区坡面入湖径流约占4%,其余24%来自饶河、修水以及其它入湖支流.模型将用于评估流域下垫面或气候变化引起的入湖水量变化,为湖泊水量平衡计算提供依据.     

呼伦湖水位、盐度变化(1961-2002年)

为重建水文资料缺乏的呼伦湖流域的水文、水质序列,本研究基于长期的气象观测记录,采用彭曼公式估计了湖泊的水面蒸发,并建立一个两参数月水量平衡模型模拟湖周的入流,通过水量平衡计算．建立了42年(1961-2002)的呼伦湖区水量变化序列,并模拟了湖泊月水量、水位、含盐度的变化．模拟的水位、含盐度变化趋势与实际比较接近,模拟精度较好,其误差在可以接受范围内.所重建的42年呼伦湖区水文、含盐度序列,可为该区域的水资源评价管理、开发利用提供科学依据.     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water balance analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake–floodplain system

The Tonle Sap Lake of Cambodia is the largest freshwater body of Southeast Asia, forming an important part of the Mekong River system. The lake has an extremely productive ecosystem and operates as a natural floodwater reservoir for the lower Mekong Basin, offering flood protection and assuring the dry season flow to the Mekong Delta. In light of the accelerating pace of water resources development within the Mekong Basin and the anticipation of potentially significant hydrological impacts, it is critical to understand the overall hydrologic regime of Tonle Sap Lake. We present here a detailed water balance model based on observed data of discharges from the lake's tributaries, discharge between Mekong and the lake through the Tonle Sap River, precipitation, and evaporation. The overland flow between the Mekong and lake was modelled with the EIA 3D hydrodynamic model. We found that majority (53.5%) of the water originates from the Mekong mainstream, but the lake's tributaries also play an important role contributing 34% of the annual flow, while 12.5% is derived from precipitation. The water level in the lake is mainly controlled by the water level in the Mekong mainstream. The Tonle Sap system is hence very vulnerable, from a water quantity point of view, to possible changes in the Mekong mainstream and thus, development activities in the whole Mekong basin. From a biogeochemical point of view, the possible changes in the lake's own catchment are equally important, together with the changes in the whole Mekong Basin. Based on our findings, we recommend of continuing the monitoring programmes in lake's tributaries and urgently starting of groundwater measurement campaign within the floodplain, and including the groundwater modelling to be part of the hydrodynamic models applied for the lake. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海湖水量平衡及水位变化预测

青海湖是我国最大的内陆湖泊,流域面积29661km~(2),水面高程超过3000m,受人为活动影响相对较少,基本上还处于半自然状态。水量平衡计算结果表明,有观测资料的近30年来,青海湖处于负平蘅状态,水位下降了2.96m,平均每年下降10.2cm。如果未来湖区的气候大体保持过去的情况,水位将再下降5.8m,经过57年才能平衡。如果考虑“温室效应”所引起的西北地区未来气候变化,水位亦将下降,每年平均下降10.1cm。     

Water transport through Lake Kinneret sediments traced by tritium

The transport of water through the sediments of Lake Kinneret was estimated using tritium of fallout origin as a tracer. The calculation model takes into account the diffusion of the tracer and its decay, and allows for the advective flux through the sediment pores as a free parameter. The dependence of the interstitial diffusion constant on the porosity was assumed identical to that for chloride ions. Tritium profiles in nine cores were used for estimating the advective fluxes and velocities, by finding the best fit between data and model. Water advective fluxes of 3.4 g cm^?2 yr^?1 into the lake were found. This water flux is negligible in the hydrological balance of Lake Kinneret; but it carries along 7% of the unaccounted-for chloride input to the lake.     

Modeling Water and Salt Balance of Bol’shoe Yashaltinskoe Lake

This article is the first to give morphometric and bathymetric relationships for Bol’shoe Yashaltinskoe Lake, derived by processing expedition data. A bathymetric map of the lake is constructed. A method is proposed for modeling lake water balance and water salinity based on geographic analogy and an algorithm for constructing a stochastic vector autoregression process. Realizations of the simulated series of lake water balance components and water salinity variations over 1000 years with a monthly step are constructed.     

青海湖水量平衡分析与水资源优化配置研究

在充分收集有关资料的基础上研究青海湖1959-2000年间降水径流蒸发湖泊水位地下水补给量的动态变化建立水量平衡分析方程.青海湖水位在波动中持续下降42年来年平均水位累计下降了 3.32 m平均每年下降了0.079 m近年来下降的幅度减小. 同时青海湖储水量不断减少而湖区降水呈增加的趋势河川径流量地下水的入湖补给量 蒸发量呈现下降的趋势. 根据青海湖水平衡分析计算结果预测2010年青海湖流域耗水量将达1.27108m3为维护生态平衡和社会经济持续发展需要跨流域调水量引大济湖4.1108m3.     

An insight into the dynamics of Lake Nainital (Kumaun Himalaya,India) using stable isotope data / Un aperçu de la dynamique du Lac Nainital (Himalaya Kumaun,Inde) à partir de données isotopiques stables

Abstract

Abstract The water balance of Lake Nainital in the Kumaun Himalaya, India was previously computed using water budgeting and other indirect methods. An important data set of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of water sources of the lake region was also presented and used to verify the annual estimates of subsurface flow/water balance. In the present study, the same data set has been used to investigate the dynamics of this lake in terms of the seasonal processes operative during the annual hydrological cycle: increased inflow during the monsoon, delayed groundwater inflow, and stratification and mixing of water. Based on the available data, a simple two-box model was used to constrain the values of exchange coefficients between the hypolimnion and epilimnion layers and to estimate evaporation and outflow components from the isotopic data.     

Monitoring the water balance of Lake Victoria, East Africa, from space

Using satellite gravimetric and altimetric data, we examine trends in water storage and lake levels of multiple lakes in the Great Rift Valley region of East Africa for the years 2003–2008. GRACE total water storage estimates reveal that water storage declined in much of East Africa, by as much as , while altimetric data show that lake levels in some large lakes dropped by as much as 1–2 m. The largest declines occurred in Lake Victoria, the Earth’s second largest freshwater body. Because the discharge from the outlet of Lake Victoria is used to generate hydroelectric power, the role of human management in the lake’s decline has been questioned. By comparing catchment water storage trends to lake level trends, we confirm that climatic forcing explains only about 50decline. This analysis provides an independent means of assessing the relative impacts of climate and human management on the water balance of Lake Victoria that does not depend on observations of dam discharge, which may not be publically available. In the second part of the study, the individual components of the lake water balance are estimated. Satellite estimates of changes in lake level, precipitation, and evaporation are used with observed lake discharge to develop a parameterization for estimating subsurface inflows due to changes in groundwater storage estimated from satellite gravimetry. At seasonal timescales, this approach provides closure to Lake Victoria’s water balance to within . The third part of this study uses the water balance of a downstream water body, Lake Kyoga, to estimate the outflow from Lake Victoria remotely. Because Lake Kyoga is roughly 20 times smaller in area than Lake Victoria, its water balance is strongly influenced by inflow from Lake Victoria. Lake Kyoga has been shown to act as a linear reservoir, where its outflow is proportional to the height of the lake. This model can be used with satellite altimetric lake levels to estimate a time series of Lake Victoria discharge with an rms error of about .     

河西走廊花海古湖泊全新世白云石的发现及其环境意义

通过对河西走廊花海古湖泊沉积物的X衍射分析发现,全新世期间有明显的白云石沉积.岩性、沉积过程、石膏以及Fe3+含量的变化表明,花海湖全新世白云石沉积环境以还原环境为主,即还原环境利于白云石的形成,为白云石的成因研究提供了新的证据.白云石作为碳酸盐矿物,可以反映湖水盐度,但并非直接指示了湖水的咸化.随着湖水盐度的进一步增加,在硫酸盐型湖泊中,白云石含量随盐度的增加而相应减少,表明利用白云石分析湖水盐度时需要结合其他矿物进行分析.结合石膏含量的变化,花海湖全新世时期白云石含量的变化可以揭示该区域湖水盐度的变化.在10.478.87 cal ka B.P.早全新世时期,湖水的盐度较高,气候由干向湿转变;8.87 cal ka B.P.时期,有大量石膏沉积,显示了湖水盐度的进一步升高,气候干旱;随后湖水相对淡化,气候湿润;5.50 cal ka B.P.至今,沉积出现间断,气候逐渐干旱.     

基于水平衡模型的呼伦湖湖泊水量变化

针对北方寒旱区呼伦湖水位下降、水面萎缩的现象,根据气候特征,利用月水量平衡模型探究湖泊水文过程并揭示其变化规律.在此基础上,利用不同气候条件下各水平衡项对于湖泊水位的影响程度确定水位升降的直接原因.基于1963-1980年间水位的实测数据,根据水量平衡原理及其他辅助计算判断出湖泊与周边区域存在着地下水的交换,且具有一定的规律性,即历年11月至次年3月期间的累积降雪融化渗入土壤中形成浅层径流补给湖泊,而7、8月份湖泊补给周边草原.基于以上规律,根据周边坡面汇流、地下水与湖泊交换量的年内变化特征,利用水平衡方程式推算湖泊1981-2008年逐月水位变化,并与其他研究成果比较,吻合度较高.不同气候条件下,径流量对于湖泊水位的影响程度最为突出,是水位变化的主控因子.     

Modelling lake stage and water balance of Lake Tana,Ethiopia

The level of Lake Tana, Ethiopia, fluctuates annually and seasonally following the patterns of changes in precipitation. In this study, a mass balance approach is used to estimate the hydrological balance of the lake. Water influx from four major rivers, subsurface inflow from the floodplains, precipitation, outflow from the lake constituting river discharge and evapotranspiration from the lake are analysed on monthly and annual bases. Spatial interpolation of precipitation using rain gauge data was conducted using kriging. Outflow from the lake was identified as the evaporation from the lake's surface as well as discharge at the outlet where the Blue Nile commences. Groundwater inflow is estimated using MODular three‐dimensional finite‐difference ground‐water FLOW model software that showed an aligned flow pattern to the river channels. The groundwater outflow is considered negligible based on the secondary sources that confirmed the absence of lake water geochemical mixing outside of the basin. Evaporation is estimated using Penman's, Meyer's and Thornwaite's methods to compare the mass balance and energy balance approaches. Meteorological data, satellite images and temperature perturbation simulations from Global Historical Climate Network of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration are employed for estimation of evaporation input parameters. The difference of the inflow and outflow was taken as storage in depth and compared with the measured water level fluctuations. The study has shown that the monthly and annually calculated lake level replicates the observed values with root mean square error value of 0·17 and 0·15 m, respectively. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the hydrological response of a tropical terminal lake,Lake Abiyata (Main Ethiopian Rift Valley) to changes in climate and human activities

Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r² = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Salsvatn,a lake with old sea water

Salsvatn is a 464 m deep lake laying 16 m above sea level in North Trøndelag, Norway. The lake was isolated from the sea some 3,000 years ago. It is assumed that salt-water in the deepest 50 m of the lake is the remain of sea water being trapped in the lake at this time. The concentration of cloride in the salt-water layer corresponds to a salinity of 29‰ in ordinary sea water. Hydrography of the lake and changes in some components of the salt water compared with ordinary sea water are discussed. Comparison is made with changes in the stagnant layers of the Black Sea and Lake Rørholtjorden. The latest is another lake with old sea-water at its bottom. Surface sediment samples have been collected from the freshwater and salt-water layers in Lake Rørholtfjorden and from the salt-water layer of Lake Salsvatn. Some chemical components of the sediments and interstitial water have been analysed and discussed.     

鄱阳湖典型洲滩湿地水分补排关系

湿地水分在地下水含水层-土壤-植物-大气界面的运移和转换是维持能量和营养物平衡的重要环节,水分运移是湿地生态水文过程研究的关键.数值模型模拟已成为水分运移研究的重要手段,然而限于复杂的湿地自然条件及有限的监测手段,部分界面水分通量连续动态变化数据的获取及定量化工作较为困难,目前应用数值模拟法于湿地水分运移研究的案例仍不多见.本文以鄱阳湖典型湿地为研究区,构建垂向一维数值模型,阐释了湖泊水位显著季节性变化条件下,湿地水分在不同界面的传输过程,量化了湿地水分的补排关系.结果表明:(1)界面水分通量季节性差异大,降雨入渗地面和根系层水分渗漏均对降雨变化响应敏感,主要集中在4—6月,分别占年总量(1450和1053 mm)的65%和73%.土面蒸发和植物蒸腾年总量为176和926 mm,土面蒸发主要受气候条件影响,植物蒸腾还与植物生长特征有关,均集中在7—8月,分别占年总量的30%和47%.深层土壤向浅层根系层的水分补给集中发生在地下水浅埋时段6—8月,占年总量(609 mm)的76%;(2)湿地植物根系层水分补排受鄱阳湖水位季节性波动影响显著.除丰水期(7—9月)主要补给为深层土壤水外,退、枯、涨水期的主要补给均为降水入渗.涨水期(4—6月)和枯水期(12—3月)的主要排泄为根系层水分渗漏,丰水期以植物蒸腾排泄为主,退水期(10—11月),土面蒸发与植物蒸腾为主要排泄,且比重相当.本文定量了鄱阳湖典型湿地不同界面水分连续交换关系,区分了土面蒸发和植物蒸腾,辨析了各界面水分的主要影响因子,研究结果有助于深入理解水分在湿地生态系统地下水含水层-土壤-植物-大气界面的相互作用机制,认识湖泊洲滩湿地水量平衡,为揭示湖泊水情变化对湿地生态的可能影响提供依据,为湿地生态水文过程研究提供重要方法和理论参考.     

Multi-block lattice Boltzmann simulations of solute transport in shallow water flows

We report a two-dimensional multi-block lattice Boltzmann model for solute transport in shallow water flows, which is developed based on the advection–diffusion equation for mass transport and the shallow water equations for the flows. A weighting factor is included in the centered scheme for improved accuracy. The model is firstly verified by simulating three benchmark tests: wind-driven circulation in a dish-shaped lake, jet-forced flow in a circular basin, and flow formed by two parallel streams containing different uniform concentrations at the same constant velocity; and then it is applied to a practical wind-induced flow, Baiyangdian Lake, which is characterized by irregular geometries and complex bathymetries. The numerical results have shown that the model is able to produce accurate and detailed results for both water flows and solute transport, which is attractive, especially for flows in narrow zones of practical terrains and certain areas with largely varying pollutant concentrations.     

Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100 / Bilan hydrologique du Lac Victoria: mise à jour jusqu’en 2000 et modélisation des impacts du changement climatique jusqu’en 2100

Abstract

Abstract An annual water balance model of Lake Victoria is derived for the period 1925–2000. Regression techniques are used to derive annual inputs to the water balance, based on lake rainfall data, measured and derived inflows and estimated evaporation during the historical period. This approach acknowledges that runoff is a nonlinear function of lake rainfall. A longer inflow series is produced here which is representative of the whole inflow to the lake, rather than just from individual tributaries. The results show a good simulation of annual lake levels and outflows and capture the high lake level in 1997–1998. Climate change scenarios, from a recent global climate model experiment, are applied to the lake rainfall inflow series and evaporation data to estimate future water balances of the lake. The scenarios produce a potential fall in lake levels by the 2030s horizon, and a rise by the 2080s horizon. A discussion of the application of climate change data to this complex hydrological system is presented.