北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量的关系

本文应用奇异值分解方法给出同期和前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量相互匹配的空间典型分布型．分析结果表明，无论同期还是前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量之间均存在着清晰的遥相关．同期的赤道中东太平洋海温异常增高、日本以东洋面海温偏低，福建后汛期降水量偏少；另外，闽南地区后汛期降水量与同期NINO西海区和黑潮海区的海温成正相关关系．冬、春季出现厄尔尼诺现象时，次年福建尤其是闽南沿海后汛期降水量将偏少．     

基于历史和卫星资料的中国近海海表面温度长期变化趋势的综合分析

利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”历史资料并结合Pathfinder 卫星遥感资料, 对中国近海的海表面温度（SST）多年变化情况进行了分析讨论, 给出了变化趋势。针对1963～1996 年和1985～1996 年两个时间段, 对夏季和冬季中国近海SST 的长期变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明, 在中国近海除个...     

FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.     

中国沿海海表温度均一性检验和订正

利用惩罚最大T检验（Penalized Maximal T test,PMT）方法,选取均一的邻近气象站为参考站,基于月平均地面气温（SAT）资料,利用相关系数权重平均方法构建参考序列,同时结合元数据信息,对1960-2011年中国沿海27个海洋观测站月平均海表温度（SST）进行了均一性检验与订正,并分析了造成海表温度序列非均一的主要原因。结果表明,中国沿海海洋台站海表温度资料存在较为严重的非均一性问题,几乎所有的台站都存在断点,仪器变更（包括人工观测转自动观测）（占总断点数的52.4%）和迁站（占总断点数的33.3%）是造成序列非均一的主要原因。整套资料负订正量所占比例较高,这种负订正量与人工转自动观测后海表温度观测值偏低有密切关系。这也使得订正后中国沿海平均海表温度趋势与订正前存在明显差异,订正后中国沿海海表温度呈明显的加速上升趋势。     

Trends of sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature fronts in the South China Sea during 2003–2017

The trends of the sea surface temperature(SST) and SST fronts in the South China Sea(SCS) are analyzed during2003–2017 using high-resolution satellite data. The linear trend of the basin averaged SST is 0.31°C per decade,with the strongest warming identified in southeastern Vietnam. Although the rate of warming is comparable in summer and winter for the entire basin, the corresponding spatial patterns of the linear trend are substantially different between them. The SST trend to the west of the Luzon Strait is characterized by rapid warming in summer, exceeding approximately 0.6°C per decade, but the trend is insignificant in winter. The strongest warming trend occurs in the southeast of Vietnam in winter, with much less pronounced warming in summer. A positive trend of SST fronts is identified for the coast of China and is associated with increasing wind stress. The increasing trend of SST fronts is also found in the east of Vietnam. Large-scale circulation, such as El Ni?o, can influence the trends of the SST and SST fronts. A significant correlation is found between the SST anomaly and Ni?o3.4 index, and the ENSO signal leads by eight months. The basin averaged SST linear trends increase after the El Ni?o event(2009–2010), which is, at least, due to the rapid warming rate causing by the enhanced northeasterly wind. Peaks of positive anomalous SST and negatively anomalous SST fronts are found to co-occur with the strong El Ni?o events.     

东亚冬季风异常对西北太平洋海温的影响

利用1950—1998年的月平均海温资料和NCEP/NCAR月平均大气环流再分析资料,研究了东亚冬季风的异常对西北太平洋海温的作用过程。结果表明,南海—台湾附近海域—日本南部以南海域(简称东亚邻海)是海-气热通量异常的显著区。弱东亚冬季风在东亚邻海有偏南风距平,抑制相应海域海-气界面上由海表向大气释放的热通量,从而使得海表温度出现正距平。强冬季风则反之。这种大气-热通量-海温的异常影响过程所需的响应时间约为1个月。东亚邻海冬季发生的海温异常可持续到下一年的夏季。     

南海地区潜热输送与我国东南部夏季降水的遥相关分析

使用奇异值分解(SVD)和经验正交函数展开(EOF)方法,分析了我国东南部夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)及同期(夏季)南海潜热输送之间相关场的分布型,从中找出遥相关的“关键区”,并对找到的高相关区的可靠性进行了讨论。结果表明,我国东南部夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)及同期(夏季)南海潜热输送相关密切,尤其春、夏季潜热输送与降水相关程度更高。前期中的冬季,南海北部潜热输送与华南及其近海地区的夏季降水有较显着的负相关关系;春季,南海中部海盆地带的游热输送与长江以南至华南沿海地区的夏季降水有较强的正相关关系;夏季,南海中部海盆地带仍是影响同期华南降水的“关键区”.     

全球热带海洋海表温度场异常对北极海冰的影响

本文利用1951−2021年哈德莱中心提供的海冰和海温最新资料以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预报中心提供的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析探讨了北极海冰70余年的长期变化特征,进而研究了其快速减少与热带海温场异常变化之间的联系,揭示了在全球热带海洋海温场变化与北极海冰之间存在密切联系的事实。结果表明,北极海冰异常变化最显著区域出现在格陵兰海、卡拉海和巴伦支海。热带不同海区对北极海冰的影响存在明显时滞时间和强度差异,热带大西洋的影响相比偏早,印度洋次之,太平洋偏晚。热带大西洋、印度洋和中东太平洋海温异常影响北极海冰的最佳时间分别是后者滞后26个月、30个月和34个月,全球热带海洋影响北极海冰的时滞时间为33个月。印度洋SST对北极海冰的影响程度最强,其次是太平洋,最弱是大西洋。全球热带海洋对北极海冰的影响过程中,热带东太平洋和印度洋起主导作用。当全球热带海洋SST出现正（负）距平时,北极海冰会出现偏少（多）的趋势,而AO、PNA、NAO对北极海冰变化起重要作用,是热带海洋与北极海冰相系数的重要“纽带”。而AO、PNA和NAO不仅受热带海洋SST的影响,同时也受太平洋年代际振荡PDO和大西洋多年代际AMO的影响,这一研究为未来北极海冰快速减少和全球气候变暖机理的深入研究提供理论支撑。     

南海海域浮游植物叶绿素与海表温度季节变化特征分析

利用 SeaWiFS卫星遥感叶绿素质量浓度及TRMM微波遥感海表温度产品,研究了南海海表叶绿素a的季节变化特征及其同海表温度的关系。研究结果表明,南海叶绿素质量浓度具有很强的季节变化:通常低叶绿素质量浓度(<0.12 mg. m^-3)出现在弱风、高海表温度(>28 °C)的春、夏季节;高叶绿素质量浓度(>0.13 mg·m^-3)出现在有较强风速和较低海表温度(<27 °C)的冬季。线性回归分析显示,南海叶绿素质量浓度同海表温度呈显著负相关关系。尽管在南海南部、南海中部、南海西部及吕宋西北部4个代表子区域的显著性有所差异,但都暗示温度变化所反映的垂向层化调控了营养盐质量浓度和浮游植物量变化。可见,温度可能是影响海洋上层稳定程度及垂向交换强度的重要指标,从而可能调控营养盐及浮游植物的变化。     

The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas

Positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean such as the China seas during an ENSO event.By analyzing the monthly data of HadISST from 1950 to 2007,it shows that the interannual component of SST anomalies peak approximately 10 months after SST anomalies peak in the eastern equatorial Pacific.As the ENSO event progresses,the positive SST anomalies spread throughout the China seas and eastward along the Kuroshio extension.Atmospheric reanalysis data demonstrate that changes in the net surface heat flux entering into the China seas are responsible for the SST variability.During El Ni o,the western north Pacific anticyclone is generated,with anomalous southwester lies prevailing along the East Asian coast.This anticyclone reduces the mean surface wind speed which decreases the surface heat flux and then increases the SST.The delays between the developing of this anticyclone and the south Indian Ocean anticyclone with approximately 3–6 months cause the 2–3 months lag of the surface heat flux between the China seas and the Indian Ocean.The northwestern Pacific anticyclone is the key process bridging the warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and that in the China seas.     

The effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties

A modified and improved primitive equation numerical model with p-sigma incorporated vertical coordinates is used to simulate the effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties. The different sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are automatically generated in the time integrations by using two different SST models, one of which is called the deep ocean model (DOM) and the other the shallow ocean model (SOM). The SST generated by the DOM has the distribution pattern of the initial SST which is similar to the pattern in the cold water years over the western Pacific, while the SST generated by the SOM has the pattern similar to that in the warm water years. The differences between the experimental results by using DOM and SOM are analyzed in detail. The analyses indicate that the most basic and important characteristics of the summer monsoon climate can be simulated successfully in both experiments, that means the climatic propert     

Multitime scale variations of sea surface temperature in the China seas based on the HadISST dataset

The variability of the sea surface temperature(SST) in the China seas has been studied in seasonal,interannual and interdecadal scales based on the monthly data of HadISST spanning from 1870 to 2007. The main results obtained are SST in the China offshore changes most actively at the seasonal scale with the intensity diminishing from north to south,as the temperature differences between summer and winter reaching 17 and 4 C in the northern and southern areas,respectively. Moreover,seasonal variation near the coastal regions seems relatively stronger than that far from the coastline;significant interannual variations are detected,with the largest positive anomaly occurring in 1998 in the overall area. But as far as different domains are concerned,there exists great diversity,and the difference is also found between winter and summer. Differed from the seasonal variations,where the strongest interannual variability takes place,resides to the south of that of the seasonal ones in the northern section,nevertheless in the South China Sea,the most significant interannual variability is found in the deep basin;interdecadal changes of summer,winter and annual mean SST in different domains likewise present various features. In addition,a common dominant warming in recent 20 a are found in the overall China offshore with the strongest center located in the vicinity of the Changjiang Estuary in the East China Sea,which intensifies as high as 1.3 C during the past 130 a.     

印度洋海面温度对黄淮地区夏季降水影响的年代际变化研究

利用1961—2016年我国400个气象台站夏季降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA的海面温度资料,分析了黄淮地区夏季降水与同期大气环流及前期海面温度关系的年代际变化特征。结果显示,20世纪80年代之前（后）,前期冬季太平洋海面温度发生厄尔尼诺时,黄淮地区夏季降水偏少（多）,20世纪80年代中期之前,前期冬季印度洋海面温度全区一致型模态与黄淮地区夏季降水关系较弱,但是从20世纪80年代中期开始,正相关关系明显增强。进一步研究发现,前期印度洋海面温度一致偏高时,夏季500 hPa高度场上,副热带高压明显增强,这种相关关系20世纪80年代中期之后明显强于20世纪80年代之前,海平面气压场上,高相关区在20世纪80年代之后呈现明显的南方涛动模态,印度洋海面温度通过影响决定黄淮地区夏季降水异常的大气环流关键区域,使得其与黄淮地区夏季降水的关系随着年代际变化增强。     

印度洋海表温度的变化及其对印度夏季季风降水影响的诊断研究

对印度洋海表温度(SST)的主要特征及变化趋势进行分析,并研究了其与印度夏季季风降水(ISMR)和季风环流的关系,揭示出:从北印度洋到南半球中高纬度印度洋,SST最显著的变化模态是全海盆一致的变化,近50 a来总体趋势是上升的,在1976,1986年以及1996年间分别有一次跳跃性增温,与太平洋SST变化趋势基本一致.除了长期变化趋势外,南印度洋中高纬度比热带地区有更显著的模态分布.在印度洋SST升温的背景下,ISMR具有逐渐减少的趋势,但两者相关较弱.印度洋SST发生跳跃后的不同阶段,许多海区SST与ISMR相关均发生变化,但在春季,热带外南印度洋具有一对相对稳定区,其分布与EOF分析的第2模态相似.根据它们的分布,文中定义了春季南半球偶极子(SIOD),在正SIOD(PSIOD)情况下印度降水偏多,而负SIOD(NSIOD)则反之.环流分析表明,PSIOD(NSIOD)通过与大气的相互作用,对夏季马斯克林高压具有增强(减弱)作用,进而使得索马里越赤道气流增强(减弱),在印度地区低空产生异常的辐合(辐散),高层辐散(辐合),从而影响印度季风环流,使得印度季风降水偏多(少).     

卫星遥感海表温度资料和高度计资料的变分同化

利用国家气候中心正在发展的第二代全球海洋资料同化系统(BCC_GODAS2.0),针对多变量同化的协调性问题,发展了一种基于三维变分框架(3DVAR)下的高度计和海表温度(SST)相互约束的同化方法。该方法使海面高度和SST资料在同一个动力约束关系下进行同化。在一般方法中,海面高度和SST观测项是代价函数中2个独立的观测项,海面高度项引入动力高度计算公式,海表温度项用统计关系进行垂向投影。在代价函数的实际求解的计算过程中,虽然其总体积分效应受海面高度观测的约束,但整个水柱中各层温盐分析变量的调整是无序的。针对这个问题,文章提出一种新的同化方案。该方案将SST的观测项并入海面高度观测项中,海面高度的一部分,确切说是上层海洋部分,由SST决定,因此至少在SST的统计关系能影响到深度的上层海洋,在代价函数的求解过程中,温盐的调整是受较强的统计关系约束的,而这种统计关系的有效性已经在很多SST的同化试验中被其他学者广泛应用并证明。利用该方法,对1993—1997年的AVHRR卫星遥感海表温度资料进行变分同化试验,用TAO、OISST和SODA数据集进行检验证明,通过对卫星遥感资料的同化能够有效改进对海洋温度和盐度的估...     

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。     

液态降水与地表气温对北极海冰开始融化时间的影响

海冰最早开始融化时间（EMO）是体现海冰融化的重要指标,也是影响海冰热收支的关键因素。本文使用EMO遥感数据、ERA5再分析资料和海冰密集度数据分析研究了地表气温和液态降水对EMO影响的相对贡献。研究显示,在5个研究海区中,大西洋扇区南区EMO提前最显著,1979− 2021年的变化率为−3.3 d/(10 a)。北极各海区的地表气温与EMO有着持续1～2个月的显著相关时段,其中太平洋扇区南区、大西洋扇区北区和南区的地表气温较液态降水与EMO相关的持续时间更长,相关性也更强;而对太平洋扇区北区和北极中央区,只有在EMO发生前的2～3周,液态降水对其EMO有着更高的贡献。对于太平洋扇区北区,大气环流提供的强水汽输送通道伸入该海区,使对流层低层饱和水汽增多,500 hPa位势高度的多年变化趋势具有三波绕极环流加强的结构,也有利于经向的热量交换,使比湿的垂向梯度进一步增加,为该海区EMO的提前起到一定的促进作用。对于北极中央区,在EMO提前的年份,液态降水较常年偏高33%,不仅气候态意义下的太平洋水汽通道的输送加强,欧亚大陆上空的水汽通道也与之汇合,促使北极东部形成气旋式水汽输送模态,为EMO的提前发生提供了有利条件。     

利用海面温度和海面动力高度反演西太平洋月平均温度场

海水三维温度场是海洋研究和海洋工程领域中最重要的数据资料之一。本研究基于量纲分析法获得海面参数和海水内部温度剖面之间的函数关系,进而提出了一种利用海面温度和海面动力高度反演大洋月平均三维温度场的方法。本研究基于该方法估算了西太平洋海域0～1 000 m深度范围月平均三维温度场,并将反演结果与基于Argo资料获得的三维温度场进行了比较,其结果证明了该方法的有效性。     

热带太平洋波浪输运与海表面温度异常关系研究

Large-scale water transport is one of the key factors that affect sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the eastern equatorial Pacific(EEP).The relationship between the wave transport in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the EEP is examined by different methods,including band-pass filtering,period analysis,correlation analysis,significant analysis,and empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis.We have found that the eastward shift of the wave transport anomaly in the tropical Pacific,with a period of 2 a and enhancing the transport of warm waters from the western Pacific warm pool,precedes the increase of sea surface temperature(SST) in the EEP.The wave transport and the SSTA in the EEP have a maximum correlation of 0.65 with a time-lag of 6 months(transport variation precedes the temperature).The major periods(3.7 a and 2.45 a) of the wave transport variability,as revealed by the EOF analysis,appear to be consistent with the SSTA oscillation cycle in the EEP.Based on the first occurrence of a significant SSTA in the Ni?o 3 region(5°S–5°N,90°–150°W),two types of warm events are defined.The wave transport anomalies in two types present predominantly the west anomaly in the tropical Pacific,it is that the wave transport continues transport warm water from west to east before the onset of the warm event.The impact of wave-induced water transport on the SSTA in the EEP is confirmed by the heat flux of the wave transport.The wave transport exerts significant effect on the SSTA variability in the EEP and thus is not neglectable in the further studies.