Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai,India: A Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model

Several factors contribute to on-going challenges of spatial planning and urban policy in megacities, including rapid population shifts, less organized urban areas, and a lack of data with which to monitor urban growth and land use change. To support Mumbai's sustainable development, this research was conducted to examine past urban land use changes on the basis of remote sensing data collected between 1973 and 2010. An integrated Markov Chains–Cellular Automata (MC–CA) urban growth model was implemented to predict the city's expansion for the years 2020–2030. To consider the factors affecting urban growth, the MC–CA model was also connected to multi-criteria evaluation to generate transition probability maps. The results of the multi-temporal change detection show that the highest urban growth rates, 142% occurred between 1973 and 1990. In contrast, the growth rates decreased to 40% between 1990 and 2001 and decreased to 38% between 2001 and 2010. The areas most affected by this degradation were open land and croplands. The MC–CA model predicts that this trend will continue in the future. Compared to the reference year, 2010, increases in built-up areas of 26% by 2020 and 12% by 2030 are forecast. Strong evidence is provided for complex future urban growth, characterized by a mixture of growth patterns. The most pronounced of these is urban expansion toward the north along the main traffic infrastructure, linking the two currently non-affiliated main settlement ribbons. Additionally, urban infill developments are expected to emerge in the eastern areas, and these developments are expected to increase urban pressure.     

A systematic sensitivity analysis of constrained cellular automata model for urban growth simulation based on different transition rules

Cellular automata (CA) have emerged as a primary tool for urban growth modeling due to its simplicity, transparency, and ease of implementation. Sensitivity analysis is an important component in CA modeling for a better understanding of errors or uncertainties and their propagation. Most studies on sensitivity analyses in urban CA modeling focus on specific component such as neighborhood configuration or stochastic perturbation. However, sensitivity analysis of transition rules, which is one of the core components in CA models, has not been systematically done. This article proposes a systematic sensitivity analysis of major operational components in urban CA modeling using a stepwise comparison approach. After obtaining transition rules, three stages (i.e. static calibration of transition rules, dynamic evolution with varied time steps, and incorporation with stochastic perturbation) are designed to facilitate a comprehensive analysis. This scheme implemented with a case study in Guangzhou City (China) reveals that gaps in performance from static calibration with different transition rules can be reduced when dynamic evolution is considered. Moreover, the degree of stochastic perturbation is closely related to obtain urban morphology. However, a more realistic (i.e. fragmented) urban landscape is achieved at the cost of decreasing pixel-based accuracy in this study. Thus, a trade-off between pixel-based and pattern-based comparisons should be balanced in practical urban modeling. Finally, experimental results illustrate that models for transition rules extraction with good quality can do an assistance for urban modeling through reducing errors and uncertainty range. Additionally, ensemble methods can feasibly improve the performance of CA models when coupled with nonparametric models (i.e. classification and regression tree).     

新疆全要素生产率估算及其经济增长源泉分析

为深入探究新疆经济增长的驱动因素,基于1990-2015年新疆统计数据,运用索洛残差法对新疆的全要素生产率进行了估算,并对估算结果与影响新疆全要素生产率变动的技术进步因素和制度变迁因素进行了计量分析。研究表明：（1）新疆经济增长主要依赖资本和劳动力等要素投入驱动,是一种典型的要素投入型经济增长方式。（2）新疆全要素生产率变化具有很强的累积性和路径依赖性,其中技术转移和转化是新疆全要素生产率变化的主要原因,而制度进步和自主研发对新疆全要素生产率变化的影响不明显。（3）新疆制度发育尚不完全,阻碍生产要素优化配置的因素很多。（4）新疆的R&D经费投入偏低,尚未形成规模效应,未能显著地促进新疆全要素生产率的提高。基于本文的研究结论给出相应的政策启示。     

The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as field growth, is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon.     

珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象

珠江三角洲是世界范围内经济和城镇发展“增长奇迹”的典型地区,当中以东莞为代表的“外向型城镇化”模式长期受到国内外学者的关注。然而,2008年的金融危机冲击对东莞经济造成巨大冲击,市域范围同时出现了普遍增长与局部收缩两种截然不同的新空间现象。随着中国经济步入新常态,城镇化快速发展过程中伴随的局部收缩现象逐渐引起学界和社会的广泛讨论。基于此,从城镇发展要素的集聚与流动出发,结合经济、人口和用地三个维度,提出理解城镇增长与收缩的分析框架,并对不同类型特征的城镇进行区分：持续增长、转型增长、潜在收缩与显著收缩。在实证分析部分,文章以东莞为案例,通过考察各镇街单元城镇增长与收缩的时间演变和空间格局,结合典型城镇案例分析,从经济危机冲击、刘易斯转折点、路径依赖存在、制度环境安排四个方面探讨东莞城镇增长与收缩的形成机制,最后对增长与收缩的未来深化研究方向进行讨论。     

大城市边缘区人居环境系统演变规律——以广州市为例

文章以广州市为例,揭示了大城市边缘区人居环境系统的演变规律:首先,人居环境系统演变过程可以划分为初期、中期、后期三个阶段,各阶段在城市化水平、经济发展状况、基础设施建设、社区形态、景观类型、土地利用等方面都呈现出显著的特征;其次,提出了人居环境容量概念,并借助于GIS空间分析方法,发现边缘区人口密度不断地增加,人居环境容量逐步趋于饱和;第三,大城市边缘区人居环境演变呈现出不均衡的周期性变化。在此基础上,借鉴Verhulst逻辑斯蒂方程与复合生态系统的动力学机制,构建了大城市边缘区人居环境演变的阶段性、生命周期与可持续发展模型。揭示大城市边缘区人居环境系统演变的规律,可为大城市边缘区人居环境系统优化调控提供理论依据,充实人居环境科学理论体系。     

Population growth and distribution versus agricultural change: an analysis of the Warli tribal community in Dahanu and Talaseri Talukas of Thane district (Maharashtra)

The authors examine the relationship between population growth and agricultural change using a village-level study of the Warli tribal community in Maharashtra, India. "This paper tries to highlight the relationship that exists between the two factors and the relative changes in the structural character of the two factors. It also focuses on the complications brought about by the juxtaposition of a market economy of the nontribals on the subsistence peasant agriculture of the Warli tribals. Methodology is empirical. Suitable statistical aids have been used on available census material [for the years 1901-1971], substantiated with fieldwork."     

城市居民对居住区位的偏好：支付意愿梯度模型的估计

利用翔实的社会调查数据，本文考察了我国城市居民对居住区位的偏好和支付意愿，以及影响支付意愿相对水平的各项因素。首先，本文对影响居民对居住区位支付意愿高低（即支付意愿梯度）的因素进行了理论分析，将其分为两组，一组是家庭个体特征，一组是城市形态特征，同时分析了支付意愿梯度与这些因素之间的相关关系。在初步分析的基础上，本文建立了支付意愿梯度模型，利用北京、上海、广州、武汉和重庆五城市的调研数据对模型参数进行了估计。模型估计结果显示，高收入群体仍倾向于居住在距离市中心偏近的位置。另外，工作地点、对环境的偏好、城市规模和郊区基础设施完善程度都会从各方面影响支付意愿的梯度值。     

Characterization of crack distribution: fabric analysis versus ultrasonic inversion

We analyse the relation between rock fabric, expressed by the preferred orientation of rock-forming minerals and microcracks, and elastic anisotropy of crystalline rock from the KTB pilot well. Detailed analyses of mineralogical composition, textures and microcrack fabrics were performed. In addition, ultrasonic velocity measurements of spherical samples in several directions were carried out at various confining pressures, and inverted in terms of the complete set of 21 elastic constants. By comparing the elastic tensors of the rocks at the final confining pressure (at which most of the microcracks are closed) with those at a lower pressure level, it is possible to separate the anisotropy induced by microcracks from that caused by mineral alignment. In contrast to previous work, no a priori knowledge of the type of anisotropy (triclinic, monoclinic, orthotropic etc.), or of the spatial orientation of the symmetry elements (planes, axes) of the cracked rock or of the intact rock is assumed. Furthermore, no restrictive assumptions on the orientation distribution function and the shape of the cracks are needed.
The results show that the elastic anisotropy characteristics, whether they are related to the microcracks or to the rock-forming minerals, are clearly correlated with the directly observed rock fabrics. We show that the symmetry directions of the mineral fabric and of microcrack fabric agree. A further result is that the microcrack-induced anisotropy dominates the other causes of anisotropy at confining pressures smaller than a few tens of megapascals, the situation being reversed at higher pressures. The laboratory data are quantitatively compared with sonic log data from the KTB well, showing the influence of pore fluids, effective pressure and crack density reduction on the anisotropy in situ .     

Comparative assessment of semantic-sensitive satellite image retrieval: simple and context-sensitive Bayesian networks

In recent years, Bayesian networks using unsupervised extracted image features have been applied in many remote sensing information mining systems to enable semantic-sensitive image retrieval. However, a simple Bayesian network insufficiently accounts for the spatial information, that is, the relations among image regions, for the semantic inference process. This drawback significantly impacts the retrieval performance, especially if the utilised features contain no or little spatial information. Therefore, this article proposes a context-sensitive Bayesian network, which infers semantic concepts of image regions based on the spectral and textural characteristics of the regions themselves as well as their contexts, that is, the adjacent regions. In order to compare the context-sensitive Bayesian network with the simple Bayesian network, comprehensive experiments were conducted based on high-resolution multispectral IKONOS imagery. The results show that the incorporation of the image regions' spatial relations not only significantly improves the accuracy of the semantic concepts inference, but also allows more flexibility in choosing the type of low-level features.     

内蒙古半干旱区蒸散估算和归因分析

蒸散(Evapotranspiration,ET)是生态系统水循环中的重要一环,决定了生态系统水分和热量传输。从区域尺度对蒸散及其蒸腾(Transpiration,T)和蒸发(Evaporation,E)组分进行量化,认识环境因素对其的影响机制,有助于合理利用、分配水资源,为研究气候变化对区域生态系统水文循环的影响提供参考。基于生态系统生产力模拟(Boreal ecosystem productivity simulator,BEPS)模型,验证模型在研究区域的适用性,量化1981—2018年内蒙古半干旱区的ET及其组分的变化情况,并对其进行归因分析。结果表明：经不同数据验证,BEPS模型计算结果能够精确反应研究区域ET及其组分的分布情况和变化趋势。1981—2018年研究区草地、农田和森林多年平均ET分别为278.22 mm、362.50 mm和308.81 mm。E、T和ET多年呈显著上升趋势,上升速率分别为0.42mm·a^-1、0.63 mm·a^-1和1.05 mm·a^-1。ET与T在全区域内空间分布格局相似,与E...     

State versus Capital: The Regulation of the Vietnamese Foreign Sector

The debate over globalisation and the state has been sharpened by the emergence of such transitional economies as China and Vietnam. These states have become the subject of considerable attention, both in terms of the form that production is taking and the manner in which they interact with international capital. In both cases, interaction with international capital and the establishment of elements of the market economy have taken place under the auspices of highly centralised single party states. The resulting approach to the forces of economic globalisation has been both highly interventionist and, at times, extremely heavy-handed. As such, both countries may be seen as being seriously out of step with the advocates of liberalisation and economic globalisation. This paper seeks to further the understanding of the position of such states through an examination of Vietnam at two levels: first, through an overview of the distinctive and changing nature of the interaction and, second, through an examination of the nature and consequences of the differential treatment of labour and capital for foreign companies operating in Vietnam.     

Estimation of PM20 emissions by wind erosion: main sources of uncertainties

The physics of the two processes (saltation and sandblasting) leading to fine mineral dust emissions by wind erosion in arid or semi-arid areas has been detailed and modeled. The combination of these two models has led to a physically explicit Dust Production Model (DPM). In this work, sensitivity tests are performed with the DPM to determine the nature of the main soil parameters that control dust emissions by sandblasting. It is found that the soil roughness length and the dry size distribution of the soil aggregates constituting the loose wind erodible fraction of the topsoil have the greatest influence on the soil potential for mineral dust production. Contrary to what is often assumed, soil texture is not a relevant parameter.In the light of these new findings, results of vertical flux measurements performed over a wide variety of sources in Niger and the US south west (14 soils) have been reanalyzed. Results show (1) that for the tested soils the DPM, and hence sandblasting, explain all dust emissions, and (2) that 13 of the 14 soils that had been selected a priori for their high potential for dust emissions contained a fine soil-aggregate component. This is consistent with the sensitivity tests indicating that the presence of such a component could enhance dust emissions by one order of magnitude. Finally, it can be concluded that most of the apparent scatter in the experimental results was in large part due to an inappropriate choice of soil parameters to interpret them.     

Paper versus Pixel: Effectiveness of Paper versus Electronic Maps To Teach Map Reading Skills in an Introductory Physical Geography Course

Abstract

This article addresses the lack of outcome-based research on the integration of technology into pedagogy at the undergraduate college level. It describes a study performed at a Midwestern university, testing the relative effectiveness of paper and electronic topographic maps for teaching map-reading skills, and considers the relationship between learning styles and paper or digital map preference. Results indicate that, although student map skill performance did not differ significantly with the use of paper or electronic maps, students preferred paper maps. Neither their performance nor their preferences were related to learning style. The article discusses the significance of these findings.     

Plate tectonics at an awkward junction: rules for the evolution of Sovanco Ridge area, NE Pacific

Summary. The elegant geometrical rules of plate tectonics do not allow for a gradual shift in plate motion directions, or the gradual, as opposed to sudden, cessation of subduction. At the scale of the small plates in the NE Pacific, imperfections in boundary processes have a large effect on the net torque on the plates, and heavily influence the evolution of the geometry. In this area, the rotation of the spreading directions and the diminution of true subduction along the southern Canadian coast has not occurred by the sudden switching of plate motions from one stable condition to another. Instead, it appears as if the dominant factor for the evolution is the resistance of the ocean floor to formation of new, smoothly slipping transform faults. Compressive deformation of even young lithosphere is not only mechanically unlikely, but is not helpful to the particular configurations found in this area. Instead, a migrating shear zone and an episode of highly en echelon spreading along a new axis nearly perpendicular to the present Juan de Fuca ridge have resulted: the present Sovanco ridge was never a transform fault. Neither is the Nootka fault a shear zone, but the locus of stretching between plates whose motions are congruent at the Juan de Fuca ridge, but diverge toward the continental margin.     

区域尺度蒸散发遥感估算——反演与数据同化研究进展

遥感技术近年来在估算区域尺度蒸散发中应用广泛。不同方法在驱动数据、模型机理和适用范围往往存在很大差别。鉴于此,阐述了基于传统方法空间尺度扩展的遥感模型,经验统计公式,特征空间法,单源、双源垂向能量平衡余项法等几类的遥感蒸散发反演方法,简要介绍了三温模型、非参数化模型、半经验模型、集成模型等常用模型。同时,分析了遥感数据同化实现连续估算区域蒸散发的主要思路,综述了基于能量平衡和基于复杂过程模型的数据同化的原理、方法演进及常用同化算法等。最后,探讨了各类区域蒸散发遥感方法的优劣、展望了模型机理完善、不确定性研究、结果验证等与蒸散发直接反演和数据同化相关的研究方向。